Iran

[ORAC]

Gulf of Hormuz update

https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/20...861133047?s=20

​​​​​​​Hormuz March 1 Recap

• The Strait remains fairly empty, BUT take note of the tankers (red icons) arriving at the anchorages to the east (in ballast) and to the west (loaded)

• The cancellation of previous WAR RISK policies, have led companies to seek out new coverage before sending their ships through the Strait. Expect a War Risk of between 0.5 to 1%.

• Loading of tankers throughout the Gulf continues, including Iran loading their tankers at Kharg Island

• While tankers are holding on each side of the Strait, there is an estimated 100 to 200 million barrels of oil stored in tankers around the world, waiting to be sold, in particular at or near Singapore; not to mention oil moving on loaded tankers.

• Tankers have been ordered to slow down their arrival off Hormuz due to the attacks in the Gulf of Oman

• During the Tanker War of the 80s, 411 ships were hit and 55 tankers lost. The attacks escalated over the course of the conflict. The current action is different as it was a sudden and sharp attack leaving the shipping companies scrambling for coverage by either naval forces (which do not appear to be coming) or via War Risk insurance.

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• Expect to see ships moving through the Strait as soon as insurance coverage is locked in, plus there will be a need to shift empty tankers into the Gulf to load from the wells to prevent shutdowns.