Russia Warns Sweden and Finland Against NATO Membership
Undersea pipline linking Estonia and Finland mysteriously damaged.
The Finnish government said in a statement that authorities had discovered the damage to the Balticconnector natural gas pipeline, and to a communication cable linking Finland and Estonia, at about 2am local time (0000 BST) on Sunday morning.
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Norwegian independent seismic monitoring foundation NORSAR:
"NORSAR have detected a probable explosion along the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea at 01:20 (local time in Finland) on 8th October 2023. This explosion was detected using stations in Finland."
"NORSAR have detected a probable explosion along the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea at 01:20 (local time in Finland) on 8th October 2023. This explosion was detected using stations in Finland."
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.........
The sabotage of #BalticConnector and the telcom cable connecting Finland and Estonia must be placed in a broader context.
A thread from a Finnish perspective:
Contrary to expectations, Russia's immeduate response to 🇫🇮 NATO bid was muted. However, this year, Finland has been subject to harsher treatment. Moscow e.g. took over the Russian assets of Fortum and withdrew its agreement for operation of 🇫🇮 consulate in St. Petersburg.
Furthermore, several Russian top officials have recently singled out Finland, portraying it as an offensive American vassal. The suspected sabotage would mark the continuation of this increasingly aggressive policy.
Moscow likely has two broad aims vis-a-vis 🇫🇮 . It wants to intimidate Finland and NATO from building a robust deterrence and defence posture in Northern Europe. The Russian leadership also seeks to transform the rather neutral domestic image of Finland.
Sabotaging critical infrastructure fits in the strategy of intimidation. Russia wants to sow fear among Finnish decisionmakers and the public. The likely aim is to limit allied presence in Finland as well as the depth of its NATO integration.
It goes without saying that the acts of sabotage in the Gulf of Finland were dramatic. That said, neither the gas pipeline nor the telecom cable were absolutely vital for the critical functions of Finnish society or for its security of supply.
That is to say that Russia has far more destabilizing and disruptive measures in its gray zone toolkit. Moreover, the acts of sabotage took place outside the territorial waters of Finland and Estonia. I.e. Russia did not violate their sovereignty.
We do not yet know whether the measures were a prelude to something more disrupting or just an one-off measure.
Perhaps we should treat occasional aggressive grayzone acts as the new normal of Northern European security, characterised by NATO-Russia confrontation.
One last point: Finnish leaders and experts have already underscored that the acts of sabotage were not a surprise. As recently as late August, President @niinisto reminded Finns that Finland must remain prepared for malign measures from Russia.
A thread from a Finnish perspective:
Contrary to expectations, Russia's immeduate response to 🇫🇮 NATO bid was muted. However, this year, Finland has been subject to harsher treatment. Moscow e.g. took over the Russian assets of Fortum and withdrew its agreement for operation of 🇫🇮 consulate in St. Petersburg.
Furthermore, several Russian top officials have recently singled out Finland, portraying it as an offensive American vassal. The suspected sabotage would mark the continuation of this increasingly aggressive policy.
Moscow likely has two broad aims vis-a-vis 🇫🇮 . It wants to intimidate Finland and NATO from building a robust deterrence and defence posture in Northern Europe. The Russian leadership also seeks to transform the rather neutral domestic image of Finland.
Sabotaging critical infrastructure fits in the strategy of intimidation. Russia wants to sow fear among Finnish decisionmakers and the public. The likely aim is to limit allied presence in Finland as well as the depth of its NATO integration.
It goes without saying that the acts of sabotage in the Gulf of Finland were dramatic. That said, neither the gas pipeline nor the telecom cable were absolutely vital for the critical functions of Finnish society or for its security of supply.
That is to say that Russia has far more destabilizing and disruptive measures in its gray zone toolkit. Moreover, the acts of sabotage took place outside the territorial waters of Finland and Estonia. I.e. Russia did not violate their sovereignty.
We do not yet know whether the measures were a prelude to something more disrupting or just an one-off measure.
Perhaps we should treat occasional aggressive grayzone acts as the new normal of Northern European security, characterised by NATO-Russia confrontation.
One last point: Finnish leaders and experts have already underscored that the acts of sabotage were not a surprise. As recently as late August, President @niinisto reminded Finns that Finland must remain prepared for malign measures from Russia.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-is-deliberate
Nato vows to respond if Finland-Estonia gas pipeline damage is deliberate
Alliance’s chief says if there is proof of attack it will be met with ‘determined’ response, amid speculation about Russian sabotage
Nato vows to respond if Finland-Estonia gas pipeline damage is deliberate
Alliance’s chief says if there is proof of attack it will be met with ‘determined’ response, amid speculation about Russian sabotage
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Reuters:
Türkiye set to delay ratifying Sweden's NATO bid until after October as it awaits signs of U.S. support for its own request to buy F-16 jets.
Türkiye set to delay ratifying Sweden's NATO bid until after October as it awaits signs of U.S. support for its own request to buy F-16 jets.
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Maybe nothing, maybe not….
NL patrol vessel HNMLS Holland has been doing donuts and search/hold patterns south of a 150 km2 large wind farm in the English channel.
It is along an expected route of Russias latest subsea warfare ship Yevgeniy Gorigledzha. At the center of the circles are 2 unknown echoes.….
Dutch warship Holland is not only just south of one of Europes largest wind farms, she is on top of Interconnector, a gas pipeline connecting UK with mainland Europe.…
NL patrol vessel HNMLS Holland has been doing donuts and search/hold patterns south of a 150 km2 large wind farm in the English channel.
It is along an expected route of Russias latest subsea warfare ship Yevgeniy Gorigledzha. At the center of the circles are 2 unknown echoes.….
Dutch warship Holland is not only just south of one of Europes largest wind farms, she is on top of Interconnector, a gas pipeline connecting UK with mainland Europe.…
Though the above graphic is not immediately geo-locatable should the Ruzzians or anyone else interfere with a gas pipe or electric connector in UK waters then that would be an overt act of war.
As it stand sounds like yet more fake news to me.
As it stand sounds like yet more fake news to me.
She is now moored in Rotterdam…..it being the weekend.
Evertonian
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Good news today from Ankara. President Erdoğan has handed the Swedish ratification documents to the 🇹🇷 parliament.
🇸🇪 stands ready to contribute to the security of the Alliance.
🇸🇪 stands ready to contribute to the security of the Alliance.
Or, one of the parties in the parliament will kick up the storm of rhetoric again ...
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Sweden is not only moving towards NATO but also likely to conclude the DCA negotiations with the US this week. Including:
- access for 🇺🇸 to selected 🇸🇪 military bases
- no 🇳🇴-style restriction on nuclear exercises or storage
@aewastenberg via @charlyjsp
- access for 🇺🇸 to selected 🇸🇪 military bases
- no 🇳🇴-style restriction on nuclear exercises or storage
@aewastenberg via @charlyjsp
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Another Baltic cable attack….
BREAKING: Sweden says its undersea communications cable with Estonia was damaged by "external force or tampering"
Sweden has linked the attack on the communications cable to the Finland-Estonia Balticconnector gas pipeline
But it notably stopped short of blaming Russia
Latvia is pushing NATO to close the Baltic Sea for shipping if Russia perpetrated the Finland-Estonia pipeline attack…
https://kyivindependent.com/undersea...-by-tampering/
Undersea telecom cable between Sweden and Estonia damaged by 'tampering'
An underwater telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia was "damaged by means of external force or tampering," the Swedish government said on Oct. 23.
A Swedish investigation concluded that the damage occurred "within the Estonian economic zone" and did not affect the cable's functionality.
Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson and Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin held a press conference on Oct. 17 to discuss the damage, which was discovered around the same time as damage to a Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline and nearby telecommunications cable.
"We are cooperating closely with our Estonian and Finnish partners. Estonia has reported that traces of physical impacts have been found. They have also assessed that the damage to the gas pipeline and communications cable between Finland and Estonia is related to the damage to the communications cable between Sweden and Estonia," Bohlin said.
Sweden confirmed on Oct. 23 that the damage was inflicted upon the cable deliberately.
In response to the damage to the Sweden-Estonia cable and Finland-Estonia pipeline, NATO has increased its surveillance in the Baltic Sea. The Swedish government also said it would increase patrols.
"Due to recent events, maritime surveillance is conducted more intensively," the announcment said.….
BREAKING: Sweden says its undersea communications cable with Estonia was damaged by "external force or tampering"
Sweden has linked the attack on the communications cable to the Finland-Estonia Balticconnector gas pipeline
But it notably stopped short of blaming Russia
Latvia is pushing NATO to close the Baltic Sea for shipping if Russia perpetrated the Finland-Estonia pipeline attack…
https://kyivindependent.com/undersea...-by-tampering/
Undersea telecom cable between Sweden and Estonia damaged by 'tampering'
An underwater telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia was "damaged by means of external force or tampering," the Swedish government said on Oct. 23.
A Swedish investigation concluded that the damage occurred "within the Estonian economic zone" and did not affect the cable's functionality.
Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson and Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin held a press conference on Oct. 17 to discuss the damage, which was discovered around the same time as damage to a Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline and nearby telecommunications cable.
"We are cooperating closely with our Estonian and Finnish partners. Estonia has reported that traces of physical impacts have been found. They have also assessed that the damage to the gas pipeline and communications cable between Finland and Estonia is related to the damage to the communications cable between Sweden and Estonia," Bohlin said.
Sweden confirmed on Oct. 23 that the damage was inflicted upon the cable deliberately.
In response to the damage to the Sweden-Estonia cable and Finland-Estonia pipeline, NATO has increased its surveillance in the Baltic Sea. The Swedish government also said it would increase patrols.
"Due to recent events, maritime surveillance is conducted more intensively," the announcment said.….
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At press conference just now, #Finnish investigators release first subsea images of the #Balticconnector pipeline damage site, along with images of the “extremely heavy object” they found near the pipeline and subsequently recovered, appearing to be an anchor.…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...871037862.html
The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has been seen in the Port of Arkhangelsk with its anchor missing.
Finnish investigators suspects it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Balticconnector, causing damages to the Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline that will take 6 months to repair
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...871037862.html
The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has been seen in the Port of Arkhangelsk with its anchor missing.
Finnish investigators suspects it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Balticconnector, causing damages to the Finnish-Estonian gas pipeline that will take 6 months to repair
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Images of the Finnish / Estonian pipeline and underwater cable damage and the anchor found beside it. Surely if it is a bow anchor they might be able to pinpoint it to a specific vessel?
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Follow up on the anchor, appears to be a slam dunk. All text quotes from
Additional updates from Finnish presser:
Object recovered is anchor.
Marks on seabed suggest anchor was dragged for at least *several kilometers* before hitting Balticconnector.
Seabed mark continued at least *several kilometers* after pipeline damage site.
Additional updates from Finnish presser:
Object recovered is anchor.
Marks on seabed suggest anchor was dragged for at least *several kilometers* before hitting Balticconnector.
Seabed mark continued at least *several kilometers* after pipeline damage site.
Further updates from Finnish presser:
Remains unclear still if strike is intentional or accidental so investigation still being treated as gross sabotage.
Chinese vessel <NEWNEW POLAR BEAR> remains under investigation.
Remains unclear still if strike is intentional or accidental so investigation still being treated as gross sabotage.
Chinese vessel <NEWNEW POLAR BEAR> remains under investigation.
Important Context:
<NEWNEW POLAR BEAR> vessel managed in joint venture with Russian entity and was near Russian icebreaker <SEVMORPUT> at time of seismic event suggesting pipeline strike timing.
<NEWNEW POLAR BEAR> vessel managed in joint venture with Russian entity and was near Russian icebreaker <SEVMORPUT> at time of seismic event suggesting pipeline strike timing.
Important Context:
fact anchor was dragged several kilometers (and that there is damage also ~200 km away at the Sweden-Estonia telecoms cable (confirmed by Estonia to be connected to the Balticconnector & FEC cable damage)……may suggest intentional action since many recent media reported cable cuts from accidental anchor drags elsewhere appear to be caused by weather or ship motion only starting a few hundreds of meters from damage site……(vessel anchors then either it’s negligent motion or weather action drag anchor into subsea infrastructure).
Both vessels were traveling over ~10knots the entire path through all three damage sites according to AIS data so no slowdown for anchoring appears to have happened…a
fact anchor was dragged several kilometers (and that there is damage also ~200 km away at the Sweden-Estonia telecoms cable (confirmed by Estonia to be connected to the Balticconnector & FEC cable damage)……may suggest intentional action since many recent media reported cable cuts from accidental anchor drags elsewhere appear to be caused by weather or ship motion only starting a few hundreds of meters from damage site……(vessel anchors then either it’s negligent motion or weather action drag anchor into subsea infrastructure).
Both vessels were traveling over ~10knots the entire path through all three damage sites according to AIS data so no slowdown for anchoring appears to have happened…a
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Note the cargo has shifted top left of the ship.
How nice that the Chinese have decided to get into the game. I guess they were feeling left out.
Tabs please !
One possible way to protect vital infrastructure is to dump rocks on the pipe, cable etc. after it has been installed. It's time consuming but it protects against trawlers and other not so innocent interference.