Ukraine Crisis 2014
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Is This the End of NATO?
........There are two core reasons for Western collapse of will before Putin’s decidedly modest aggression in Ukraine. The first is that Western and Central Europe have so substantially disarmed since the end of the Cold War. Hardly any European NATO countries spend the “required” two percent of GDP on defense, and no amount of American scolding about it seems to make any difference. As a result, European NATO militaries, with few exceptions, possess a mere shadow of the combat power they had two decades ago. Several of them have abandoned tanks altogether, while even Germany has so cut back its combat power that there are only four battalions each of armor and artillery in the whole Bundeswehr.
Not all the fault for this sorry state of affairs lies in Europe. Here America has played an insidious role too, encouraging spending on niche missions for the Alliance at the expense of traditional defense. Hence the fact that Baltic navies have considerable counter-mine capabilities — this being an unsexy mission that the U.S. Navy hates to do — yet hardly any ability to police their maritime borders against intruding Russians. To make matters worse, since 2001 the Americans have encouraged NATO partners to spend considerable amounts of their limited defense budgets on America’s losing war in Afghanistan.
But the moral collapse of Europe is even worse than the military collapse. All the armaments in the world do no good when the will to use them is absent. Since the Cold War’s end, Western Europeans have convinced themselves of many things that simply are not true. Their optimistic worldview, which really is the highest form of the WEIRD Weltanschauung, abandoned any notion that monsters might still exist, and many Europeans, including most of their leaders, seem unable to accept the new reality that Vladimir Putin has forced upon them. Yet denying that Russia aims to change the European order, and will use force to do so, will not stop Kremlin misdeeds, actually it will only encourage more Russian aggression.
To be blunt, I see little evidence to date that major European leaders are willing to wake up to this new reality. In the event of Russian provocation against NATO, which is highly likely soon, it’s very possible that the Atlantic Alliance will unravel completely. Putin may achieve his strategic victory with hardly a shot fired. In such an event, I have no idea how Obama, or any American president, could send U.S. troops to die to defend a Europe that is so flagrantly unwilling to defend itself.
Two-and-a-half millennia ago, the Chinese sage Sun Tzu counseled that “the best military policy is to attack strategies; the next to attack alliances; the next to attack soldiers,” and Putin is doing exactly this. He has no need to undermine NATO strategy, since none exists in reality, while he continues to hack away at the foundations of the Western Alliance through Special War, particularly espionage and subversion.
It’s significant that, just after Greece elected an openly pro-Russian government, whose defense and foreign ministers are major Putin fans, the rising left wing in Spain announces that, should it come to power, it will take Madrid out of NATO altogether. Cyprus’s announcement on Friday that it will offer its military bases to Russia should be seen in proper strategic context. If this chipping away at the foundations of European security by the Kremlin continues, there may be no big war for Russia to have to win...........
For all the Alliance’s military shortcomings, NATO can deter Putin’s aggression until 2020 at least, with current forces. However, deterring the Kremlin’s Special War, which I have long counseled the West to get serious about, may prove a more serious challenge. The West has the ability to keep a rampaging Russia restrained. Sending defensive weaponry to Ukraine would be a wise start, while so is bolstering NATO forces on the Alliance’s vulnerable frontier, well beyond the modest efforts now, finally, being undertaken. What no defense budget or military strategist can provide, however, is political will. If Europe cannot regain enough self-confidence to resist Putin, it will lose everything, sooner than you think.
........There are two core reasons for Western collapse of will before Putin’s decidedly modest aggression in Ukraine. The first is that Western and Central Europe have so substantially disarmed since the end of the Cold War. Hardly any European NATO countries spend the “required” two percent of GDP on defense, and no amount of American scolding about it seems to make any difference. As a result, European NATO militaries, with few exceptions, possess a mere shadow of the combat power they had two decades ago. Several of them have abandoned tanks altogether, while even Germany has so cut back its combat power that there are only four battalions each of armor and artillery in the whole Bundeswehr.
Not all the fault for this sorry state of affairs lies in Europe. Here America has played an insidious role too, encouraging spending on niche missions for the Alliance at the expense of traditional defense. Hence the fact that Baltic navies have considerable counter-mine capabilities — this being an unsexy mission that the U.S. Navy hates to do — yet hardly any ability to police their maritime borders against intruding Russians. To make matters worse, since 2001 the Americans have encouraged NATO partners to spend considerable amounts of their limited defense budgets on America’s losing war in Afghanistan.
But the moral collapse of Europe is even worse than the military collapse. All the armaments in the world do no good when the will to use them is absent. Since the Cold War’s end, Western Europeans have convinced themselves of many things that simply are not true. Their optimistic worldview, which really is the highest form of the WEIRD Weltanschauung, abandoned any notion that monsters might still exist, and many Europeans, including most of their leaders, seem unable to accept the new reality that Vladimir Putin has forced upon them. Yet denying that Russia aims to change the European order, and will use force to do so, will not stop Kremlin misdeeds, actually it will only encourage more Russian aggression.
To be blunt, I see little evidence to date that major European leaders are willing to wake up to this new reality. In the event of Russian provocation against NATO, which is highly likely soon, it’s very possible that the Atlantic Alliance will unravel completely. Putin may achieve his strategic victory with hardly a shot fired. In such an event, I have no idea how Obama, or any American president, could send U.S. troops to die to defend a Europe that is so flagrantly unwilling to defend itself.
Two-and-a-half millennia ago, the Chinese sage Sun Tzu counseled that “the best military policy is to attack strategies; the next to attack alliances; the next to attack soldiers,” and Putin is doing exactly this. He has no need to undermine NATO strategy, since none exists in reality, while he continues to hack away at the foundations of the Western Alliance through Special War, particularly espionage and subversion.
It’s significant that, just after Greece elected an openly pro-Russian government, whose defense and foreign ministers are major Putin fans, the rising left wing in Spain announces that, should it come to power, it will take Madrid out of NATO altogether. Cyprus’s announcement on Friday that it will offer its military bases to Russia should be seen in proper strategic context. If this chipping away at the foundations of European security by the Kremlin continues, there may be no big war for Russia to have to win...........
For all the Alliance’s military shortcomings, NATO can deter Putin’s aggression until 2020 at least, with current forces. However, deterring the Kremlin’s Special War, which I have long counseled the West to get serious about, may prove a more serious challenge. The West has the ability to keep a rampaging Russia restrained. Sending defensive weaponry to Ukraine would be a wise start, while so is bolstering NATO forces on the Alliance’s vulnerable frontier, well beyond the modest efforts now, finally, being undertaken. What no defense budget or military strategist can provide, however, is political will. If Europe cannot regain enough self-confidence to resist Putin, it will lose everything, sooner than you think.
However, it is worth remembering that the joint Reagan/Thatcher strategy that the military option was unworkable, but an economic strategy to bankrupt the USSR was winnable brought about the demise of the 'Evil Empire' that Putin so resents.
Sanctions have been only a gentle reminder so far. Proper economic warfare will hurt Russia's fragile economy far worse than the West.
Sanctions have been only a gentle reminder so far. Proper economic warfare will hurt Russia's fragile economy far worse than the West.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: England
Posts: 924
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think sending western made small arms and small weaponry to Western Ukraine would be a disaster for Europe, including the UK.
They (Western Ukraine) wouldn't know how to use it, have no training capability for it. And another large part of the globe will descend into assort of what, a ungovernable guerrilla zone of warfare?. well we already know who would win there if it escalated, don't we?
Putin and the Russian military would probably be fully right to roll in and restore order on their border/land.
No, he's (Putin)won this one flat hands down already.
Keep us (UK) firmly out of this. Surprised opposition haven't made more about it, the crisis, our current fringe role within NATO.
Been watching Merkel and Obama on TV just now, they have a much better and comfortable body language together, its very obvious as to where POTUS sees where the leading role in resolution lies (which is a good thing, Merkel is very calm capable European leader).
But Putin has won this round, no doubt about it for me.
They (Western Ukraine) wouldn't know how to use it, have no training capability for it. And another large part of the globe will descend into assort of what, a ungovernable guerrilla zone of warfare?. well we already know who would win there if it escalated, don't we?
Putin and the Russian military would probably be fully right to roll in and restore order on their border/land.
No, he's (Putin)won this one flat hands down already.
Keep us (UK) firmly out of this. Surprised opposition haven't made more about it, the crisis, our current fringe role within NATO.
Been watching Merkel and Obama on TV just now, they have a much better and comfortable body language together, its very obvious as to where POTUS sees where the leading role in resolution lies (which is a good thing, Merkel is very calm capable European leader).
But Putin has won this round, no doubt about it for me.
Ronald:
Wrong, RR, and not even a nice try. Best thing the West can do is feed arms to the Poles, and let the Poles feed Ukraine. :-) (And the Hungarians, if they feel up to it).
ORAC: I looked up the XX blog. Interesting gent.
I think he's mostly right on "two core reasons for Western collapse of will before Putin’s decidedly modest aggression in Ukraine."
1. A fifty to sixty year old story that goes back as far as the Eisenhower administration and the beginnings of NATO.
2. Western and Central European nations are again showing that they have no stomach for war. When an adversary know you have no stomach for a fight, he'll bully you. Is this all an elaborate head fake, or is this lack of spine for real? If we play "follow the money" then the chances that it is a head fake look pretty slim.
3. Look at how fast "the West" ran short of ammo in Libya. Hmmm.
While this has some merit, I think that the Euro group are weighting their main effort with their economic weapon, as economics will always underwrite capability.
Actually I would say the best thing the west could do is nothing.
ORAC: I looked up the XX blog. Interesting gent.
I think he's mostly right on "two core reasons for Western collapse of will before Putin’s decidedly modest aggression in Ukraine."
The first is that Western and Central Europe have so substantially disarmed since the end of the Cold War. Hardly any European NATO countries spend the “required” two percent of GDP on defense, and no amount of American scolding about it seems to make any difference.
2. Western and Central European nations are again showing that they have no stomach for war. When an adversary know you have no stomach for a fight, he'll bully you. Is this all an elaborate head fake, or is this lack of spine for real? If we play "follow the money" then the chances that it is a head fake look pretty slim.
3. Look at how fast "the West" ran short of ammo in Libya. Hmmm.
But the moral collapse of Europe is even worse than the military collapse. All the armaments in the world do no good when the will to use them is absent. Since the Cold War’s end, Western Europeans have convinced themselves of many things that simply are not true. Their optimistic worldview, which really is the highest form of the WEIRD Weltanschauung, abandoned any notion that monsters might still exist, and many Europeans, including most of their leaders, seem unable to accept the new reality that Vladimir Putin has forced upon them. Yet denying that Russia aims to change the European order, and will use force to do so, will not stop Kremlin misdeeds, actually it will only encourage more Russian
aggression.
aggression.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: England
Posts: 924
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Bit part Britain.
'Bit player' Britain risks being stuck on foreign policy sidelines | Politics | The Guardian
Doesn't bother me either, if I'm honest. Watching UK forces fail to achieve in Iraq and Afghanistan, then watching the futility of assisting with a regime change in Libya, have finally stopped the UK public backing the politicians in foreign follies (that shouldn't concern us any more), at least until the next generation forgets.
On a final thought, I sometimes wonder if one or two of Putin's hoods has put a frightener on some of our nearest and dearest political figures.They who are normally shouting for a military engagement from the roof tops. Election soon - I bet the Russians have thick juicy dossiers on some of our political people.
Doesn't bother me either, if I'm honest. Watching UK forces fail to achieve in Iraq and Afghanistan, then watching the futility of assisting with a regime change in Libya, have finally stopped the UK public backing the politicians in foreign follies (that shouldn't concern us any more), at least until the next generation forgets.
On a final thought, I sometimes wonder if one or two of Putin's hoods has put a frightener on some of our nearest and dearest political figures.They who are normally shouting for a military engagement from the roof tops. Election soon - I bet the Russians have thick juicy dossiers on some of our political people.
Guest
Posts: n/a
ORAC,
Your "But the moral collapse of Europe is even worse than the military collapse. All the armaments in the world do no good when the will to use them is absent" is so bitterly true. It was at the root of the French collapse in 1940 (and might well have been the at the root of ours had not Churchill stepped in in the nick of time).
It is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, but the size of the fight in the dog.
D.
Your "But the moral collapse of Europe is even worse than the military collapse. All the armaments in the world do no good when the will to use them is absent" is so bitterly true. It was at the root of the French collapse in 1940 (and might well have been the at the root of ours had not Churchill stepped in in the nick of time).
It is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, but the size of the fight in the dog.
D.
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Swimmin' with bowlegged women
Posts: 67
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Some things might look a bit bleak at the moment, but NATO has persisted through periods of uncertainty before. Confident assertions about NATO's impending demise have more or less been circulated for around 25 years, e.g. in connection with the Soviet collapse, the Balkans, Afghanistan and so on. Beware, I might suffer from a case of youthful overconfidence, though.
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 239
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I now see a western puppet government who mainly come from western Ukraine wishing to force their views on the people of eastern Ukraine
The thing about Western Puppet Governments is that you can vote them out, you know, with real elections that allow the people to vote how they wish. You can even get international help to monitor and ensure that the results are genuine, unlike the sham that your boss put in place.
Anyway, its all a sideshow isn't it. This is about restoring the Soviet Union in a new world order where you have new and more powerful friends. To be perfectly honest, I doubt many people on this forum will lose much sleep if the UK Defence Budget gets a boost as a result. In fact, if the recent Bear visits make the case for some decent Maritime Patrol capability, many of us will actually be quite grateful.
Last edited by Bigbux; 9th Feb 2015 at 22:14. Reason: Though of another smart thing to say
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 57
Posts: 808
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We won the cold war for a variety of reasons, military might, technological superiority, and economic might. Like every thing else in life, its a function of several variables, not just one. Those advocating one without the other are either blind, or just looking for excuses for what ever reason.
The world has many paths it can go down, and there are many players in the back ground with varying interests for it to go either way.
The reality is Putin needs to be stopped, you either nip it in the butt, whilst it is a small problem, or you let it get to the stage where it will be more expensive.
The fact is, if Putin wants another cold war, or wants to isolate Russia, or what ever, he is going to do it regardless, we just need to know where he stands and how far he is prepared to go.
He is playing a game on several fronts, at the heart of it is divide and conquer.
Sanctions are cr@p for most significant things, he controls the media and frankly just uses the boogie man scenario against us.
The world has many paths it can go down, and there are many players in the back ground with varying interests for it to go either way.
The reality is Putin needs to be stopped, you either nip it in the butt, whilst it is a small problem, or you let it get to the stage where it will be more expensive.
The fact is, if Putin wants another cold war, or wants to isolate Russia, or what ever, he is going to do it regardless, we just need to know where he stands and how far he is prepared to go.
He is playing a game on several fronts, at the heart of it is divide and conquer.
Sanctions are cr@p for most significant things, he controls the media and frankly just uses the boogie man scenario against us.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 57
Posts: 808
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Looks like the next stage, air superiority by the rebels.
I'm gathering Russian pilots and Russian unmarked aircraft will now be in the skys. With the excuse from Putin, "no they are captured and old museum aircraft with volunteer Russian pilots on holiday.
I'm gathering Russian pilots and Russian unmarked aircraft will now be in the skys. With the excuse from Putin, "no they are captured and old museum aircraft with volunteer Russian pilots on holiday.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
Personally I think Putin dipped his toes in the water to see how the west would react initially in Georgia, and seeing the lack lustre response, he realised the west would do nothing to prevent any future conflicts, and it is proving the case.
I am ashamed to be British over the state of play in the Ukraine... For whatever reason, right or wrong, we and the U.S. gave the Ukraine assurances that if they disarmed their nuclear capability we would protect them... Words come easy from the mouths of sleazy politicians, it's just a shame they have used the armed forces as a "balancing the books" scapegoat to the detriment of a credible force.
It's ok MP's spouting the usual rhetoric in saying XYZ has the capability of ten of its predecessor, but you cannot have one ship, one fighter, one tank in ten different places, and remember the oppositions capability has also increased tenfold, however they haven't used that bullsh*t to reduce the fleet size.
.
I am ashamed to be British over the state of play in the Ukraine... For whatever reason, right or wrong, we and the U.S. gave the Ukraine assurances that if they disarmed their nuclear capability we would protect them... Words come easy from the mouths of sleazy politicians, it's just a shame they have used the armed forces as a "balancing the books" scapegoat to the detriment of a credible force.
It's ok MP's spouting the usual rhetoric in saying XYZ has the capability of ten of its predecessor, but you cannot have one ship, one fighter, one tank in ten different places, and remember the oppositions capability has also increased tenfold, however they haven't used that bullsh*t to reduce the fleet size.
.
Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Feb 2015 at 01:57.
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: eastcoastoz
Age: 76
Posts: 1,699
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Nutty,
I think you just summed it up nicely.
p.s. On a different note, one of these days, I'm going to come up with a caption even you can't beat.
Don't hold yer breath, though.
I think you just summed it up nicely.
p.s. On a different note, one of these days, I'm going to come up with a caption even you can't beat.
Don't hold yer breath, though.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 1 Dunghill Mansions, Putney
Posts: 1,797
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
As posted in last year's MH17 thread, Putin won't feel any need to modify his behaviour as long as he feels this document still reflects the West's priorities:
I/C
I/C
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 239
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
How about this as another possible insight into Putin's behaviour and where we all might be heading.
Unhedged Commentary: Putin Will Never Back Down | Institutional Investor's Alpha
Unhedged Commentary: Putin Will Never Back Down | Institutional Investor's Alpha
Thread Starter
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: England
Posts: 924
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hard not to feel sorry for the people caught up in it.
Just been watching BBC World, reporter was in some minging looking bombed small town in the Ukraine, wrecked by shelling and heavy machine gun. People (old) were living in their shelters under their cold, damaged apartment blocks. Cold, little food. Even their pet dogs looked unhappy. On the ground above young lads in uniforms roamed around, smoked cigarettes, waiting for the next gun battle.
Looked horrible. No idea whose side any of these were on. But it will be the same on either side of the line.
Hope someone can somehow work out an intelligent and peaceful solution soon. Surely not beyond the wit of man, in the 21st century, to somehow try and end some of these many ceaseless wars and conflicts?
Looked horrible. No idea whose side any of these were on. But it will be the same on either side of the line.
Hope someone can somehow work out an intelligent and peaceful solution soon. Surely not beyond the wit of man, in the 21st century, to somehow try and end some of these many ceaseless wars and conflicts?
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 57
Posts: 808
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hope someone can somehow work out an intelligent and peaceful solution soon.
Surely not beyond the wit of man, in the 21st century, to somehow try and end some of these many ceaseless wars and conflicts?
Look at history and a fundamental understanding of what we are as a species demonstrates even though its possible, its unlikely. There needs to be a winner and a loser, or the appearance of such. Anything less just puts a phase shift into the conflict.
People come up with all sorts of nice ways to peacefully end conflicts, problem is other people have different views
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: UK on a crosswind
Posts: 262
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Personally I think Putin is the best leader the world has seen in a long time. I have many contacts - academic journalistic and service in Russia, one or two of them close to him.
Putin will win in Ukraine, he may even eventually take Kiev. Kiev is, incidentally historically Russian - it was the first capital of Russia - ever heard of Kievan Rus?
I am pretty sure that what he wants is eastern Ukraine. The western part holds no interest for him.
Trying to make out that Putin is like Hitler is just silly and should be beneath real commentators here.
Trying to re-live the Cold War is equally silly. This is NOT the Soviet Union revisited, it is entirely different, unfortunately the Americans are unable to see this. Putin wants a powerful, defendable, self-reliant Russia, and he means to achieve that. I think you will find that after he regains eastern Ukraine, Belorus will opt to rejoin fully the Russian Federation, which will give them unfettered access to the Baltic.
After that you will find that Putin turns his asttention to his moslem neighbours and the far east. Once Eastern Ukraine is secured, his western border is secure, that's what he wants.
Putin will out-think any current UK or USA politician, believe me.
Putin will win in Ukraine, he may even eventually take Kiev. Kiev is, incidentally historically Russian - it was the first capital of Russia - ever heard of Kievan Rus?
I am pretty sure that what he wants is eastern Ukraine. The western part holds no interest for him.
Trying to make out that Putin is like Hitler is just silly and should be beneath real commentators here.
Trying to re-live the Cold War is equally silly. This is NOT the Soviet Union revisited, it is entirely different, unfortunately the Americans are unable to see this. Putin wants a powerful, defendable, self-reliant Russia, and he means to achieve that. I think you will find that after he regains eastern Ukraine, Belorus will opt to rejoin fully the Russian Federation, which will give them unfettered access to the Baltic.
After that you will find that Putin turns his asttention to his moslem neighbours and the far east. Once Eastern Ukraine is secured, his western border is secure, that's what he wants.
Putin will out-think any current UK or USA politician, believe me.
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: West Midlands
Posts: 239
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Royallistflyer
wow. How many times did you guys register? Ever thought of giving the Naafi Bar on Arrse a go? I'd love to see it.
An interesting thought and one that I'm sure you feel would put all our minds to rest, thus allowing Putin to quietly go on doing his thing. But, are you advocating that it is right and proper to invade the borders of another country, simply to secure your own? Surely that's the thing you'v been accusing NATO of doing. By the way, I'd love to live in NATO, what's the scenery like and which airlines fly there?
wow. How many times did you guys register? Ever thought of giving the Naafi Bar on Arrse a go? I'd love to see it.
After that you will find that Putin turns his asttention to his moslem neighbours and the far east. Once Eastern Ukraine is secured, his western border is secure, that's what he wants.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
