War with Russia next?
Maskirovka, anyone...?
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Certainly seems to be following Putin's script so far. Bloodless occupation for another week, referendum held & Crimea joins Russia. Keep talking in the meantime, but don't say anything. The Eastern Oblasts can join in another year or two once the fuss dies down. Or maybe not; the Crimea is the real strategic gain.
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referendum held & Crimea joins Russia
They are entitled to hold local referendums under the Ukrainian constitution, but the same constitution also say that Ukrainian territory can only be altered by a complete Ukrainian referendum.
Also laughing at the denials that there are Russian troops running around, even though various reporters have had interactions with them confirming such.
I agree to a point Fox. I think Crimea is a means-to-an-end, rather than the end itself. To my mind, Putin is looking to reassert Russia's dominance of the region and to check NATO's/EU's expansionism into Eastern Europe - that's the goal, and the Crimea just gives him an opportinuty to achieve a part of that. Holding on to Crimea also teaches Ukraine (and anyone else) a lesson not to 'mess' with him/Russia.
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At some point a constitution that doesn't reflect the desires of the people will have to change, especially such a recent one, built in haste and perhaps under some pressure.
If the majority of Crimeans want to be in Russia, then so be it. If it's good enough for Scotland and North Schleswig...
If the majority of Crimeans want to be in Russia, then so be it. If it's good enough for Scotland and North Schleswig...
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I
So enlightned of you, I gather you would support the same for some other of the suppressed countries in Russia?
f the majority of Crimeans want to be in Russia, then so be it. If it's good enough for Scotland and North Schleswig...
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Ohh I know, let's march into Ibiza at the height of the season when it's full of Brits, set up armed guards all over the place, call an election under the duress of those armed guards without any say in the matter and declare the Ballearic Islands as UK territory, that'll work too and the World will see it as a fair and legal process...... not.
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Yes I would, although I doubt Mr Putin does.
The principle of self-determination is a good one, and dates back prior to that very clear example in North Schleswig, based on an idea from 1866.
Now all that shouldn't ride roughshod over minorities or distort and render countries impractical, and it has to be carried out in an orderly way, but I think that Putin has a point: if the ethnic/cultural Russians in Ukraine want to be Russian that's OK. Harboring fugitive kleptocrats and shooting at people is quite another matter.
The principle of self-determination is a good one, and dates back prior to that very clear example in North Schleswig, based on an idea from 1866.
Now all that shouldn't ride roughshod over minorities or distort and render countries impractical, and it has to be carried out in an orderly way, but I think that Putin has a point: if the ethnic/cultural Russians in Ukraine want to be Russian that's OK. Harboring fugitive kleptocrats and shooting at people is quite another matter.
Mil-26Man - I agree. Crimea is a strategic gain, but not the last.
rh200 -The Ukranian Parliament's ousting of the President, whatever it's merits, was unconstitutional. They now don't have a leg to stand on re the Crimean Referendum.
rh200 -The Ukranian Parliament's ousting of the President, whatever it's merits, was unconstitutional. They now don't have a leg to stand on re the Crimean Referendum.
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Summer holidaymakers don't get to vote, and they don't outnumber the locals.
Should long-term resident retirees end up dominating Ibiza, then at some point they might have an argument for a realignment, although not as good an argument as the Basques or Catalans.
Crimea was in Russia until the 1950s and has a large Russian-speaking population. That those people might dislike the harder right aspect of the coalition in Ukraine that ejected their puppet is understandable. The idea of a snap referendum is nonsense, but in due time Crimea could choose to be part of Russia peacefully, and without violating any laws.
Should long-term resident retirees end up dominating Ibiza, then at some point they might have an argument for a realignment, although not as good an argument as the Basques or Catalans.
Crimea was in Russia until the 1950s and has a large Russian-speaking population. That those people might dislike the harder right aspect of the coalition in Ukraine that ejected their puppet is understandable. The idea of a snap referendum is nonsense, but in due time Crimea could choose to be part of Russia peacefully, and without violating any laws.
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Surely if it came down to "protecting" Russian Citizens and I use that term loosely, then the ideal would be to evacuate those "Russians" that wished to move to Russia, and those that wished to remain in the Ukraine to remain in the Ukraine, then withdraw from the Country. Indeed they wouldn't even need to have troops in there in the first place, simply offer them the opportunity to move.
You could argue that for most countries of the world, Canada and the Innuit, USA and the Indian nations, all nations at somepoint belonged to someone else, you cannot agree one thing then at a whim change it and march into anothers Country and seize part of it.
Crimea was in Russia until the 1950s and has a large Russian-speaking population. That those people might dislike the harder right aspect of the coalition in Ukraine that ejected their puppet is understandable. The idea of a snap referendum is nonsense, but in due time Crimea could choose to be part of Russia peacefully, and without violating any laws
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Mil, And with bells on - uniting them didn't take long, and un-united them on various cultural grounds didn't take long either.
It was the giving them Lebensraum at the expense of all these slavic folks, with the connivance of some of the slavic folks that caused most of the trouble.
It was the giving them Lebensraum at the expense of all these slavic folks, with the connivance of some of the slavic folks that caused most of the trouble.
I completely agree Nutloose. Putin's argument that he is 'protecting Russians' is no different from Milosovic saying he was protecting Serbs in what used to be Yugoslavia.
If you want to be ruled by Russia, move to Russia.
If you want to be ruled by Russia, move to Russia.
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Nutloose,
The annexing is all a bit heavy handed, since there's been no threats from the new Ukrainian government.
However, those Russians have lived in Crimea for many generations. It's their home, and there's no reason why they should move. They can't have dual citizenship now they're Ukrainians, but since they have a clear Russian identity, and there's the possibility of instability in the future, it's not unreasonable for Moscow to take an interest, or to suggest that the region might be better reassigned to them, if that's what the people want.
There's also the fully legal, legacy Russian military bases in Ukraine to add further interest in the area to Moscow.
The annexing is all a bit heavy handed, since there's been no threats from the new Ukrainian government.
However, those Russians have lived in Crimea for many generations. It's their home, and there's no reason why they should move. They can't have dual citizenship now they're Ukrainians, but since they have a clear Russian identity, and there's the possibility of instability in the future, it's not unreasonable for Moscow to take an interest, or to suggest that the region might be better reassigned to them, if that's what the people want.
There's also the fully legal, legacy Russian military bases in Ukraine to add further interest in the area to Moscow.
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rh200 -The Ukranian Parliament's ousting of the President, whatever it's merits, was unconstitutional. They now don't have a leg to stand on re the Crimean Referendum.
So unless someone who's fluent in Ukrainian legalise can address those points, I'll stick to it was legal.
It's their home, and there's no reason why they should move.
Unfortunately, to the Russian-psyche everyone in the West is fascist and a Nazi and so it hasn't proven too difficult for Moscow to stoke up the local fears in Crimea to the point whereby Putin could send in the troops.
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Mil, I agree. No one in Eastern Europe has suggested it, although I think that you and Nutloose did suggest that unhappy ethnic Russians in Crimea could just move, which was why I raised the issue of them being longstanding residents.
Milosovic could have had a good point about protecting Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia: ethnic cleansing was a multi-directional game. Where he didn't have a point was in killing Bosnians and Croat civilians in large numbers.
Milosovic could have had a good point about protecting Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia: ethnic cleansing was a multi-directional game. Where he didn't have a point was in killing Bosnians and Croat civilians in large numbers.
Speaking for myself, my comment about Crimean Russians moving was in relation to those who no longer want to live in Ukraine as Russians. The Ukrainian government has not threatened them in any way, and there is no reason why they should move (like you said, many have been there for generations with no problems).
No, I'm afraid I don't agree with you about Milosovic. He unleashed that particular genie out of the bottle, and if there were repurcussions later against Serbs then he only had himself to blame for that.
No, I'm afraid I don't agree with you about Milosovic. He unleashed that particular genie out of the bottle, and if there were repurcussions later against Serbs then he only had himself to blame for that.
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I agree.
Milosovic didn't go down that road, but if he had, they'd have been some mileage in it.
As the strongest local power, he could have acted to ensure peace and safety as Yugoslavia dissipated. In 1990, don't forget it was also less than two generations since the Ustase Croats were out and about, and there was a fair bit of payback pent up.
I'm happy to assign the bulk of the blame to Serbia, but there was assistance from Croatia. The Bosnians were a bit more hapless, and just stuck in the middle. The irregular forces for all the protagonists were perhaps the most brutal, and difficult for the political leaders to control after they were wound up and set off.
Milosovic didn't go down that road, but if he had, they'd have been some mileage in it.
As the strongest local power, he could have acted to ensure peace and safety as Yugoslavia dissipated. In 1990, don't forget it was also less than two generations since the Ustase Croats were out and about, and there was a fair bit of payback pent up.
I'm happy to assign the bulk of the blame to Serbia, but there was assistance from Croatia. The Bosnians were a bit more hapless, and just stuck in the middle. The irregular forces for all the protagonists were perhaps the most brutal, and difficult for the political leaders to control after they were wound up and set off.