The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[Asturias56]

I'm afraid the Chinese Govt has the resources and the will to crack down very hard. Unless the Security Services or the PLA decide enough is enough it will only end one way - as the Tienanmen Square business did.

[ORAC]

China arresting and beating up a BBC reporter - claiming it was necessary to stop him catching Covid from thr crowd….

https://twitter.com/bbcnewspr/status...yWHdA_cAXa9Org
​​​​​​​

[_Agrajag_]

Originally Posted by ORAC

China arresting and beating up a BBC reporter - claiming it was necessary to stop him catching Covid from thr crowd….

These unbelievable "reasons" that the likes of China and Russia give for apparently justifying their actions never cease to amaze me. They clearly are not intended to be credible, so why, I wonder, do they do it?

I rather believe that this was just a case of the Chinese police following their SOP of randomly beating people up, with complete disregard for who they are. Not the first time this has happened, I believe there have been similar instances of foreign reporters being treated as if they were protestors. Didn't this also happen during the Tienanmen protests, years ago?

[henra]

Originally Posted by ORAC

People were shouting: “Down with the Communist Party! “Down with Xi Jinping!” “We want freedom!”

A bit of a pity that this happens just AFTER Xi has increased his Death Grip on the CCP. Had it happend before his 3rd Term election he might not have had such an easy way to stay in office beyond the usual duration. Now will not be the time/opportunity to get rid of him for the CCP. Sometimes in Life timing counts.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today.

Indian army masses on Chinese border after soldiers clash

Snippet:-

India has moved an “unprecedented” number of troops to the disputed border with China after a clash between soldiers of the two nuclear-armed rivals.

Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar revealed that Delhi was mobilising thousands of troops along the mountainous 2,100-mile border, following an “encroachment” by Chinese forces that triggered a skirmish with Indian troops 12 days ago.

The powers have been locked in a standoff along the border for more than two years, since China crossed the border to seize strategic positions in the disputed region of Ladakh in 2020, sparking a pitched battle that left 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers dead.

“Today we have a deployment of the Indian army on the China border that we have never had. It is done in order to counter Chinese deployment, which has which has been scaled up massively since 2020,” Jaishankar said in Delhi on Monday.

In the latest clash, the first major confrontation for more than a year, up to 400 Chinese troops entered the town of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, on the northeastern tip of India, on December 9. China considers the area part of Tibet and claims the territory as its own.
Indian officials claimed their troops had repelled the incursion after a clash that left soldiers on both sides with minor injuries. The situation remains volatile, however, as China steps up its military presence on the border, probing for weaknesses and moving tanks and artillery up to the frontier. The Indian Air Force said last week that it had detected heightened Chinese “air activity” in the region, forcing it to deploy combat aircraft at least twice this month.

[Asturias56]

they haven't said how many of course - and ts the middle of winter so not likely to be vast numbers

the statement seems to be more to counteract some statement by the Indian opposition than the Chinese this week

Tawang has always been claimed by the Chinese even tho they did capture then withdraw from it in the 1962 War

[chopper2004]

High Altitude LTA sighted

Few months back, it was reported that commercial satellite image from desert area in China picked up a very large hangar being constructed …(akin to Groom Lake, Area 51 standards) and rumored that the PLAAF may be toying with a large aerostat.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ip-development




now it transpires, there has been such a sighting off the Philippines

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...If8oSCmMdqoYVw

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times this afternoon.

Chinese fighter jet gets within metres of US military aircraft

A Chinese fighter jet flew within six metres of a US military aircraft flying over the disputed South China Sea last week in what America denounced as an “unsafe manoeuvre”.

In the latest of a series of tense encounters, a Chinese Navy J-11 fighter jet intercepted a US Air Force reconnaissance plane with about 30 people on board.

The American RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft was forced into “evasive manoeuvres to avoid a collision,” according to Indo-Pacific Command, responsible for overseeing US military operations in the region.

It added that the RC-135 was “lawfully conducting routine operations” in international airspace at the time of the interception last Wednesday.

Footage released by the US military shows the American aircraft maintaining its course and speed as the J-11 — based on the Russian Su-27 twin-engined jet — flies alongside and comes very close to its nose.

Click the link for photo/video and remainder of the article.

[fitliker]

Makes you wonder if one of the new trainers was watching Top Gun and decided to Maverick them ? Although Maverick claimed to interdict inverted .
Too close for missiles , switching to handbags

[Ninthace]

Clearly a Chinese pilot, used to looking over his shoulder.

[jolihokistix]

Good background to China’s WZ-7 high altitude drone and how it liaises with its aircraft carrier group.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...for-first-time

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...p7fooMrUcohN_Q

Japanese defense officials are weighing a plan to build dozens of ammunition and weapons depots closer to Taiwan in preparation for a potential Taiwan crisis - Nikkei.

The new depots will be located in the Nansei Islands, which include Okinawa and extend toward Taiwan from the southern tip of Japan's southernmost island of Kyushu. The government will begin discussions with local authorities and residents on the proposed islands.

The plans also call for deploying standoff missiles in the Nansei Islands to provide counterstrike capability against threats to Japan.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/fhad4pdai8

[gums]

Salute!

Thnx for update, ORAC, but the biggest prize is not Taiwan but Guam or bases in the Philippines. Guam is the most important, with the other island bases there.

Okinawa is also important to the Japanese, and more than Taiwan IMHO.

Gonna be an interesting next decade over in the Pacific.

Gums opines...

[rattman]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Japanese defense officials are weighing a plan to build dozens of ammunition and weapons depots closer to Taiwan in preparation for a potential Taiwan crisis - Nikkei.

Also looks like they will be retiring their 99 M270's as well

Twitter

[Asturias56]

"but the biggest prize is not Taiwan but Guam or bases in the Philippines. Guam is the most important, with the other island bases there.
Okinawa is also important to the Japanese, and more than Taiwan IMHO."

I think, from a straight military view you are correct. But Taiwan is NOT a military issue to the Chinese - it's very basic, visceral, politics (we all know the background).

They're unrelated in the Chinese mind I suspect

[henra]

Originally Posted by Asturias56

But Taiwan is NOT a military issue to the Chinese - it's very basic, visceral, politics (we all know the background).

They're unrelated in the Chinese mind I suspect

Indeed! Their interest in Taiwan is not due to a military strategic background. It's not a lever for them. For them it's the (historic) main price and they are looking for levers to gain this target or how to eliminate levers for the 'other side'.

[West Coast]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/polit...-ml/index.html

Let’s hope this remains theoretical only.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times.
US sends anti-ship missiles to Japan as threat from China grows

Snippet:-

The United States is to deploy Marines armed with anti-ship missiles to a new rapid reaction force in Japan, in the latest move to deter China from attacking small Japanese islands or launching an invasion of Taiwan.The deployment of the Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) in the southern Japanese island of Okinawa will be announced today after a meeting in Washington by the US and Japanese foreign and defence ministers.

It comes in advance of a summit between President Biden and Fumio Kishida, the Japanese prime minister, in which they will commit themselves to a new approach to regional security that will result in a doubling of Tokyo’s defence budget.

Click the link for the details & photos etc.

[ORAC]

https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/ja...o-war-footing/

Japan’s Shift to War Footing

[Lonewolf_50]

Maybe some people are preparing to fight the wrong war.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/25...tric-vehicles/
Full article in the spoiler.

Spoiler

 

 

In the quest for the clean energy revolution, the United States is one of many countries that have ramped up investment in electric vehicles manufacturing and renewable energy sources to power the shift away from fossil fuels.

But that is an industry that has already been staked out by another power: China. After a decadeslong push, Beijing wields considerable control over supply chains for lithium-ion batteries, which are critical to everything from electric cars to smartphones. That dominance has transformed those powerful batteries—and the key metals they comprise of—into a thorny geopolitical flash point during a period of heightened tensions.

“China is the dominant player across the supply chain for almost all of these critical minerals,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines and a former lead energy specialist at the World Bank. “That happens to feed into one of the only roughly bipartisan areas of agreement in the United States, which is that we’re in some sort of economic war with China.”

Forged from critical minerals—including lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese—lithium-ion batteries can hold considerable energy, making them crucial to efforts to swap out fossil fuels for cleaner alternatives. “Any really serious move towards decarbonizing energy and transportation systems is going to require a massive increase in the amount of battery capacity that’s out there,” said Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.





As demand for electric vehicles skyrockets, nations have been scrambling to tap the riches in the ground for these batteries. Global sales of electric vehicles doubled in 2021 from the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency. That explosion was largely driven by China, where roughly one-quarter of all new car sales were electric or hybrid.

To power the energy transition in the coming decades, these battery inputs will become even more pivotal. The World Bank has projected that billions of tons of minerals could be necessary to supply clean energy technology by 2050.

The bulk of these raw materials can be found in a handful of mineral-rich nations. Indonesia, for instance, produces 40 percent of the world’s nickel while lithium—sometimes dubbed “white gold”—is largely sourced from Australia and the so-called lithium triangle in South America. Some 70 percent of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the mining industry has a dirty underbelly of human rights abuses and reports of child labor. Mining for graphite, a key component in batteries, is overwhelmingly done in China.





Once dug up, the ore needs to be refined and processed—and that’s where Beijing dominates across the board. “China has, in a lot of senses, become the world’s foundry for the processing of a variety of different minerals,” Hendrix said.





That is the product of Beijing’s deliberate, decadeslong effort to build up its own industry, Bazilian added. “China decided that minerals and metals were going to play a big role in the future of energy and defense and began to make investments across supply chains” for raw materials, processing, and battery manufacturing, he said. “It wasn’t an overnight decision.”

The result has rattled policymakers in Washington, where heightened tensions with China have fueled concerns that Beijing could leverage its influence for geopolitical ends—as it has before. Most recently, Russia’s tightening chokehold on Europe’s natural gas supply showcased the dangers of economic over-dependence on political foes. That “is the freshest reminder of the importance of diversifying supply chains,” said Jane Nakano, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It’s not just in battery supply chains where China plays a commanding role either. Across a spate of clean energy technologies—including wind power and solar panels—Beijing’s manufacturing and trade capacity have eclipsed much of the world’s, according to the International Energy Agency.





“China definitely understands its dominance in this industry and could decide to flip the switch at any point,” said Sam Howell, who researches technology and national security at the Center for a New American Security. “The scary part is that there’s no simple or short-term fix for the U.S.”

But Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned against seeing China’s dominance in battery production as a national security threat simply because Beijing is involved. Unlike semiconductor chips, which can be used in weapons of mass destruction, she said, batteries used in clean technology don’t have the same national security implications.

“There’s an over-securitization of clean energy technologies,” Mazzocco said. “We’re at a point where everything becomes national security.” It’s important to incentivize the development of these industries not for national security reasons, she said, but for reasons related to the economy and climate change.

The Biden administration, meanwhile, has been ramping up investments in battery manufacturing, pouring billions of dollars into the industry and pledging to ensure that electric vehicles account for half of all new vehicle sales in 2030. Although it will likely take decades to make a significant dent in China’s supply chain share, experts stress that the world is still at the beginning of an energy transition—and many countries are in it for the long haul.

“China has a head start,” said Kwasi Ampofo, the head of metals and mining at BloombergNEF, “but it’s still unclear if we can call China a winner because we are still in the early stage of a transition.”

Maybe the war is economic.