Are things slowing down?
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wow you read a bit about flying on the internet and have all but given up already! probably best that you dont even bother spending on training, actually have you ever had a trial flying lesson????
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Jenson Button:
"Borrowing and interest rates are still pretty low compared to the previous two decades and those coming to the end of a fixed mortgage will be able to take advantage of the latest interest rate cut"
Are they really? This may be so on paper, Interest rates 20 years ago where 12-15% where as now they are 5.75%, so yes they are pretty low in comparision.. What you have to remember and most people forget this, the amount of money you can actually borrow now is more than double that what you could borrow 20 years ago!
The average mortgage loan 20 years ago was 2-2.5 times your salary Max , now its nearer 5 times. If you earnt 20k 20 years ago you could in theory only borrow 50k, interest rates where 12-15% and the average interest payment was 6500k per year. Today, if you earnt 20k and could borrow 5 times you're salary, 100k. Even at and interest rate as it currently is you still have the same 6500k interest payment per year! So are we actually any better off? Plus you have to remember that fuel, food and the cost of living is all higher than it was 20 years ago, even taking into account the cost of inflation..
I know this has nothing to do with the original post and sorry from taking the post off, just thought it was food for thought...
"Borrowing and interest rates are still pretty low compared to the previous two decades and those coming to the end of a fixed mortgage will be able to take advantage of the latest interest rate cut"
Are they really? This may be so on paper, Interest rates 20 years ago where 12-15% where as now they are 5.75%, so yes they are pretty low in comparision.. What you have to remember and most people forget this, the amount of money you can actually borrow now is more than double that what you could borrow 20 years ago!
The average mortgage loan 20 years ago was 2-2.5 times your salary Max , now its nearer 5 times. If you earnt 20k 20 years ago you could in theory only borrow 50k, interest rates where 12-15% and the average interest payment was 6500k per year. Today, if you earnt 20k and could borrow 5 times you're salary, 100k. Even at and interest rate as it currently is you still have the same 6500k interest payment per year! So are we actually any better off? Plus you have to remember that fuel, food and the cost of living is all higher than it was 20 years ago, even taking into account the cost of inflation..
I know this has nothing to do with the original post and sorry from taking the post off, just thought it was food for thought...
You are quite correct. Interest rates do not have to go anywhere near 15% to inflict as much pain now as in 1992. The reason is that housing costs have already reached the same straining point as a proportion of net income as in the last crash. With the average wage at £24k and the average house at £194k you can see that house prices are already in excess of 8 times earnings. Which is a higher multiple than needed for the last crash and the USA crashed at a multiple of 6.
In the early 1990's it would be very unusual for anyone under the age of 30 to have a credit card or an unsecured loan on anything other than a car.
There were no self certification (lie to buy) mortgages, no 5 times joint salary mortgages and there certainly were not over 1 million amateur landlords with buy to let mortgages (in 1999 there were 30,000 - by 2007 1,000,000 Buy To Let mortgages were in existence..) .
The profit warnings are coming thick and fast now and discounting on the high street has already started.
Its not looking good.
WWW
In the early 1990's it would be very unusual for anyone under the age of 30 to have a credit card or an unsecured loan on anything other than a car.
There were no self certification (lie to buy) mortgages, no 5 times joint salary mortgages and there certainly were not over 1 million amateur landlords with buy to let mortgages (in 1999 there were 30,000 - by 2007 1,000,000 Buy To Let mortgages were in existence..) .
The profit warnings are coming thick and fast now and discounting on the high street has already started.
Its not looking good.
WWW
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fiveo, without getting personal.
Not miserable, I merely like to think that my posts help balance out some of the over optimistic attitudes aired on here. I suppose that you would think that I was a great chap if all my posts were about fairy stories. Sorry to dissappoint you fiveo because it just aint like that. My personal opinion is, that an individual would be less than wise to give it all up now and start flight training. Financial suicide with a family in tow, that is assuming that the person does not have the cash spare already.
'If I dont do it now, I will regret it the rest of my life' You often read this on pprune, fair enough but...
I say if you do start out on the gargantuan road to commercial pilotdom, you might just regret it the rest of your life, along with your wife and kids I suspect. I dont want to be the one to spread doom and gloom, but have you ever thought that it might even be hard for an experienced pilot to get work in the industry at the moment? Just be very wary of the pig headedness and blinkers syndrome which seems to affect people who want to join the ranks of airline pilots. It seems that some simply refuse to believe that what they are doing, might just end up not working out for them.
I wanted to chat about little animals and rainbows today, to show my softer side and ease my sore head. But this is pprune! That just would'nt be right!
Enjoy your Sunday.
'If I dont do it now, I will regret it the rest of my life' You often read this on pprune, fair enough but...
I say if you do start out on the gargantuan road to commercial pilotdom, you might just regret it the rest of your life, along with your wife and kids I suspect. I dont want to be the one to spread doom and gloom, but have you ever thought that it might even be hard for an experienced pilot to get work in the industry at the moment? Just be very wary of the pig headedness and blinkers syndrome which seems to affect people who want to join the ranks of airline pilots. It seems that some simply refuse to believe that what they are doing, might just end up not working out for them.
I wanted to chat about little animals and rainbows today, to show my softer side and ease my sore head. But this is pprune! That just would'nt be right!
Enjoy your Sunday.
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Back of a fag packet
Littco and Topslider
I know that its not very pc these days to smoke, but,the "economics" were back of a fag packet calculations. I can't stand Gordon Brown myself either. The very crude assessment of UK situation was slightly tongue-in-cheek
WWW and others make plenty of very sensible comments. CTC, Oxford and Cabair will paint the rose-tinted spectacle view.
As for my driving, i now drive the most environmentally friendly F1 car....
Jenson
I wish those embarking on training all the very best, its tough, very tough -good luck.
I know that its not very pc these days to smoke, but,the "economics" were back of a fag packet calculations. I can't stand Gordon Brown myself either. The very crude assessment of UK situation was slightly tongue-in-cheek
WWW and others make plenty of very sensible comments. CTC, Oxford and Cabair will paint the rose-tinted spectacle view.As for my driving, i now drive the most environmentally friendly F1 car....
Jenson
I wish those embarking on training all the very best, its tough, very tough -good luck.
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News on the wires today...
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Bankers had better get accustomed to flying coach.
As financial firms tighten their corporate travel budgets, oil prices continue to hover near record highs and the risk of a U.S. recession looms, the civil aerospace sector looks set for a challenging 2008, with airlines and aircraft makers vulnerable to fallout from the global credit crisis.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently cut its forecast for global airline profitability next year to $7.8 billion from $9.6 billion, with a revised oil assumption of $67 barrel from $63.
In a speech last month in Washington, IATA Chief Executive Giovanni Bisignani warned of potential turbulence ahead for the industry.
"The credit crunch throws a shadow over the economic expansion that underlies our good performance. Airlines are $200 billion in debt and we could be heading for a downturn with little cash in the bank to cushion the fall," he said.
Fuel costs are continuing to climb, with a total bill for the industry of $132 billion this year, more than four times what it was in 2002, according to IATA.
Sometimes high oil prices can be a good thing.
Below a certain level, they provide an impetus for airlines to replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient jets, and thus help pad the order books of Boeing Co (BA: News, Quote) and European rival Airbus, an EADS (005730: News, Quote) company, said Robert Cullemore, a senior associate at U.K. aerospace consultancy Aviation Economics.
But Credit Suisse analysts warned earlier this week that the oil price has now gone beyond the tipping point "where it could become such a large drag on airline cash flows that financing new aircraft becomes very challenging."
As a consequence, the broker now believes 2007 represents the peak of the cycle for commercial aircraft orders.
To make things worse, Airbus, an EADS (005730: News, Quote) company, is being hammered by the weakness of the dollar because a large chunk of its production and component work takes place in Europe, but its contracts are in dollars. Airbus Chief Executive Tom Enders said last month that the slide of the greenback now threatens the very survival of the company.
"The dollar's rapid decline is life-threatening for Airbus," Enders said. "The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the pain barrier."
Airbus says each 10 cent decline in the dollar against the euro costs it 1 billion euros in profit.
Slowing economic growth yet to bite
Other factors, such as slowing economic growth and the looming risk of a recession in the U.S., are also darkening the picture. Historically, air traffic growth has indeed been highly correlated to economic growth.
Credit Suisse noted that while the euro zone and the U.S. have recently revised down their gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for 2008, the downgrades have yet to feed through to airline outlooks.
A weakening of corporate travel demand is also a concern for 2008 as financial institutions, which are prime customers of airlines' business programs, tighten their budgets in the wake of heavy credit-related losses.
"I would expect corporate travel to be negatively impacted by the global credit crisis insofar as the crisis leads to job losses and reduced activity in the financial sector," said Aviation Economics' Cullemore.
He said there may be a "lag effect" because many of the transactions that banks, consultancies and law firms are engaged in were mandated prior to the credit crunch.
"So there may not be any negative effects until spring/summer 2008," he said.
Some airlines, however, are already seeing some signs of a slowdown.
British Airways Plc (BAY: News, Quote) , Europe's third-largest airline, on Wednesday said that while premium long-haul traffic held up in November, it saw some weakness in premium short-haul traffic as corporate customers adjust their travel policy on short routes.
Some analysts also cautioned that long-haul may not hold up in the longer term.
While ticket prices have remained "remarkably" solid so far, Credit Suisse expressed concern of a slump "particularly on long-haul business routes given the profit declines being reported across financial services."
Morgan Stanley also recently examined the outlook for corporate travel in 2008 and found that budgets are better positioned to weather high oil prices than a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Respondents to a survey it conducted said persistent high fuel costs, economic troubles and potential allegiance shifts, as a result of the "open-skies" agreement, could be "very rapidly reflected in travel budgets in 2008."
Over 50% of respondents said they believe a U.S. recession would impact budgets within one quarter; and nearly 70% of respondents expect negative developments in budgets as a result of persistent high oil prices.
Taking stock of all these negative factors, Goldman Sachs earlier this week cut its earning estimates for the majority of the flag carriers.
Goldman said while the airlines it speaks to indicate no demand weakness yet, bookings don't really take off until after the Christmas break.
"We also believe that capital-market sensitive demand is softening," Goldman said.
At Deutsche Bank, Chris Reid on Nov. 27 cut its rating on Air France-KLM (AKH: News, Quote) (003112: News, Quote) , Europe's largest airline, to hold from buy, citing the risk of a global recession in 2008. See related Air France-KLM story.
U.S. carriers take action
In the U.S., the darkening outlook has prompted several airlines to take preventive measures.
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV: News, Quote) , Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL: News, Quote) and Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL: News, Quote) said earlier this week they're scaling back plans to add more flights and seats next year.
"We are concerned about growing evidence of slowing economic growth that would inevitably affect passenger demand, coupled with a surge in energy prices," Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly said in a statement. See full story.
But it's not all gloom and doom just yet, particularly for the aircraft manufacturers.
Credit Suisse noted that lease rates remain strong, suggesting airlines see short-term capacity requirements. Over the past year, leasing rates for 737 aircraft have increased the most, by about 10%, followed by 767s, at around 8%, according to the broker.
"If this trend is sustained into early 2008, we would see this as a positive for the cycle outlook," Credit Suisse said.
But the broker still warned investors not to be fooled by aircraft makers' bulging order books.
During downturns the backlog often proves to be a highly unreliable guide to deliveries --when the plane makers actually get paid -- since they're often willing to accommodate delays if additional capacity is no longer needed, the broker said.
At the end of 2000, Airbus had almost 450 aircraft on order for delivery in 2002. However, it delivered only 303 because of a slowdown that began in May 2001, and accelerated after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, SARS and the prospect of war in Afghanistan, Credit Suisse said.
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Bankers had better get accustomed to flying coach.
As financial firms tighten their corporate travel budgets, oil prices continue to hover near record highs and the risk of a U.S. recession looms, the civil aerospace sector looks set for a challenging 2008, with airlines and aircraft makers vulnerable to fallout from the global credit crisis.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently cut its forecast for global airline profitability next year to $7.8 billion from $9.6 billion, with a revised oil assumption of $67 barrel from $63.
In a speech last month in Washington, IATA Chief Executive Giovanni Bisignani warned of potential turbulence ahead for the industry.
"The credit crunch throws a shadow over the economic expansion that underlies our good performance. Airlines are $200 billion in debt and we could be heading for a downturn with little cash in the bank to cushion the fall," he said.
Fuel costs are continuing to climb, with a total bill for the industry of $132 billion this year, more than four times what it was in 2002, according to IATA.
Sometimes high oil prices can be a good thing.
Below a certain level, they provide an impetus for airlines to replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient jets, and thus help pad the order books of Boeing Co (BA: News, Quote) and European rival Airbus, an EADS (005730: News, Quote) company, said Robert Cullemore, a senior associate at U.K. aerospace consultancy Aviation Economics.
But Credit Suisse analysts warned earlier this week that the oil price has now gone beyond the tipping point "where it could become such a large drag on airline cash flows that financing new aircraft becomes very challenging."
As a consequence, the broker now believes 2007 represents the peak of the cycle for commercial aircraft orders.
To make things worse, Airbus, an EADS (005730: News, Quote) company, is being hammered by the weakness of the dollar because a large chunk of its production and component work takes place in Europe, but its contracts are in dollars. Airbus Chief Executive Tom Enders said last month that the slide of the greenback now threatens the very survival of the company.
"The dollar's rapid decline is life-threatening for Airbus," Enders said. "The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the pain barrier."
Airbus says each 10 cent decline in the dollar against the euro costs it 1 billion euros in profit.
Slowing economic growth yet to bite
Other factors, such as slowing economic growth and the looming risk of a recession in the U.S., are also darkening the picture. Historically, air traffic growth has indeed been highly correlated to economic growth.
Credit Suisse noted that while the euro zone and the U.S. have recently revised down their gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for 2008, the downgrades have yet to feed through to airline outlooks.
A weakening of corporate travel demand is also a concern for 2008 as financial institutions, which are prime customers of airlines' business programs, tighten their budgets in the wake of heavy credit-related losses.
"I would expect corporate travel to be negatively impacted by the global credit crisis insofar as the crisis leads to job losses and reduced activity in the financial sector," said Aviation Economics' Cullemore.
He said there may be a "lag effect" because many of the transactions that banks, consultancies and law firms are engaged in were mandated prior to the credit crunch.
"So there may not be any negative effects until spring/summer 2008," he said.
Some airlines, however, are already seeing some signs of a slowdown.
British Airways Plc (BAY: News, Quote) , Europe's third-largest airline, on Wednesday said that while premium long-haul traffic held up in November, it saw some weakness in premium short-haul traffic as corporate customers adjust their travel policy on short routes.
Some analysts also cautioned that long-haul may not hold up in the longer term.
While ticket prices have remained "remarkably" solid so far, Credit Suisse expressed concern of a slump "particularly on long-haul business routes given the profit declines being reported across financial services."
Morgan Stanley also recently examined the outlook for corporate travel in 2008 and found that budgets are better positioned to weather high oil prices than a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Respondents to a survey it conducted said persistent high fuel costs, economic troubles and potential allegiance shifts, as a result of the "open-skies" agreement, could be "very rapidly reflected in travel budgets in 2008."
Over 50% of respondents said they believe a U.S. recession would impact budgets within one quarter; and nearly 70% of respondents expect negative developments in budgets as a result of persistent high oil prices.
Taking stock of all these negative factors, Goldman Sachs earlier this week cut its earning estimates for the majority of the flag carriers.
Goldman said while the airlines it speaks to indicate no demand weakness yet, bookings don't really take off until after the Christmas break.
"We also believe that capital-market sensitive demand is softening," Goldman said.
At Deutsche Bank, Chris Reid on Nov. 27 cut its rating on Air France-KLM (AKH: News, Quote) (003112: News, Quote) , Europe's largest airline, to hold from buy, citing the risk of a global recession in 2008. See related Air France-KLM story.
U.S. carriers take action
In the U.S., the darkening outlook has prompted several airlines to take preventive measures.
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV: News, Quote) , Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL: News, Quote) and Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL: News, Quote) said earlier this week they're scaling back plans to add more flights and seats next year.
"We are concerned about growing evidence of slowing economic growth that would inevitably affect passenger demand, coupled with a surge in energy prices," Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly said in a statement. See full story.
But it's not all gloom and doom just yet, particularly for the aircraft manufacturers.
Credit Suisse noted that lease rates remain strong, suggesting airlines see short-term capacity requirements. Over the past year, leasing rates for 737 aircraft have increased the most, by about 10%, followed by 767s, at around 8%, according to the broker.
"If this trend is sustained into early 2008, we would see this as a positive for the cycle outlook," Credit Suisse said.
But the broker still warned investors not to be fooled by aircraft makers' bulging order books.
During downturns the backlog often proves to be a highly unreliable guide to deliveries --when the plane makers actually get paid -- since they're often willing to accommodate delays if additional capacity is no longer needed, the broker said.
At the end of 2000, Airbus had almost 450 aircraft on order for delivery in 2002. However, it delivered only 303 because of a slowdown that began in May 2001, and accelerated after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, SARS and the prospect of war in Afghanistan, Credit Suisse said.
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Antonio is there any need to be so blunt..... I'm sure the previous poster could buy Flight International but there's no need to express an opinion and then deny others the reasoning behind it, which is after all only what they were after. Most people engaged in flight training can at least afford to buy a magazine for a few pounds 
Come on my friend, please .......
Come on my friend, please .......
Last edited by boogie-nicey; 12th Dec 2007 at 14:18.
Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads.
This is incredibly serious. All Wannabes at all stages need to be very concerned and prepared for the implications of this. It will effect every UK airline in a negative way. There has never been a recession in the USA that did not result in a period of European airlines going bust.
Once a few go bust or shrink, and it only takes a few, you get a flood of highly experienced highly employable pilots on the job market. Joe "200hr" Wannabe is stuffed by this fact.
WWW
This is incredibly serious. All Wannabes at all stages need to be very concerned and prepared for the implications of this. It will effect every UK airline in a negative way. There has never been a recession in the USA that did not result in a period of European airlines going bust.
Once a few go bust or shrink, and it only takes a few, you get a flood of highly experienced highly employable pilots on the job market. Joe "200hr" Wannabe is stuffed by this fact.
WWW
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Grim times ahead indeed. Airlines such as easyJet/Ryaniar with a heavily geared background and tiny margins that rely on turnover will be affected the worst as their rapid expansion over the last few years won't have allowed for any form of economic downturn.
Londonmet - I don't share your analysis.
Both companies you mentioned have posted record profits each year for the past 5 years and both have cash balance sheets in the order of £100m in operating cashflow. In an economic recession the LCC's gain business and non-discretionary passengers from the more expensive full fare airlines as staff travel policies are reconfigured for leaner times. Both airlines have extensive domestic operations which again are often non-discretionary, e.g. the only way to get to/from University or see Granny is to fly or face a £350 rail/ferry fare or 10hrs on the road. Both also have significantly diversified market operations, i.e. if the Brit consumer goes on strike they have the Spanish/German/French/Italian/Scandanavian consumer to fall back on, the eggs are in several baskets.
LCC's do indeed have a low margin and high volumes. Yet last week it was Maxjet with tiny volumes of high margin business passengers that had its shares being suspended pending clarification of its financial health. Meanwhile easyJet very very narrowly missed being placed in the FTSE 100 this week.
If there is a big recession and it involved the USA then you don't want to be heavily exposed to the transatlantic market, the business market or the private jet market. Lads will always go on stag do's to Prague or Amsterdam or wherever because the economics of it stack up (cheap beer) and the attractions (girls, drugs) are laid on. Photo copier salesman will always need to fly to that exhibition in Frankfurt. Granny will always need to be visited in Scotland.
It was in the last economic and airline crisis post Sept11th that LCC's ordered new aircraft and entered new markets as other long established (Sabena was the oldest airline in Europe I believe) retrenched or went bust. I expect the same pattern this time.
My advice remains to train slowly, cheaply and avoid high debt levels as you go along. Now is not the time to blow £75k in 12 months in a mad rush to join the party whilst its still swinging. A year ago or more then that was a viable strategy. I don't think it is anymore.
WWW
Both companies you mentioned have posted record profits each year for the past 5 years and both have cash balance sheets in the order of £100m in operating cashflow. In an economic recession the LCC's gain business and non-discretionary passengers from the more expensive full fare airlines as staff travel policies are reconfigured for leaner times. Both airlines have extensive domestic operations which again are often non-discretionary, e.g. the only way to get to/from University or see Granny is to fly or face a £350 rail/ferry fare or 10hrs on the road. Both also have significantly diversified market operations, i.e. if the Brit consumer goes on strike they have the Spanish/German/French/Italian/Scandanavian consumer to fall back on, the eggs are in several baskets.
LCC's do indeed have a low margin and high volumes. Yet last week it was Maxjet with tiny volumes of high margin business passengers that had its shares being suspended pending clarification of its financial health. Meanwhile easyJet very very narrowly missed being placed in the FTSE 100 this week.
If there is a big recession and it involved the USA then you don't want to be heavily exposed to the transatlantic market, the business market or the private jet market. Lads will always go on stag do's to Prague or Amsterdam or wherever because the economics of it stack up (cheap beer) and the attractions (girls, drugs) are laid on. Photo copier salesman will always need to fly to that exhibition in Frankfurt. Granny will always need to be visited in Scotland.
It was in the last economic and airline crisis post Sept11th that LCC's ordered new aircraft and entered new markets as other long established (Sabena was the oldest airline in Europe I believe) retrenched or went bust. I expect the same pattern this time.
My advice remains to train slowly, cheaply and avoid high debt levels as you go along. Now is not the time to blow £75k in 12 months in a mad rush to join the party whilst its still swinging. A year ago or more then that was a viable strategy. I don't think it is anymore.
WWW
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WWW,
I agree totally WRT the training aspects of this discussion. The 200 hr newbie will now find it hard to be placed in a "jet job" as recruitment will almost certainly halt/slow down. The desire from these airlines to recruit recruit recruit will be the first thing that stops should the unthinkable happen.
I'm also verse with your figures of both easyJet and Ryanair and also their business model. However, like with anything, large companies will struggle if the economic climate changes for the worst (either side of the pond).
With peoples mortgages becoming too expensive and people having to pay some months on their visa card I doubt that those chaps will still go to AMS on a stag do. They might, but in reduced numbers. Any reduction such as this will affect the P and L account of these airlines.
As you say they've produced record figures in the past 5 years. Yes they have. BUT this has been on the back of 5 years of tremendous unsustainable growth in all markets.
As you and I both said earlier it will be an interesting 12 months. WRT to the new starters I personally believe the worst option would also be to blow large sums of money in a short period.
L Met
I agree totally WRT the training aspects of this discussion. The 200 hr newbie will now find it hard to be placed in a "jet job" as recruitment will almost certainly halt/slow down. The desire from these airlines to recruit recruit recruit will be the first thing that stops should the unthinkable happen.
I'm also verse with your figures of both easyJet and Ryanair and also their business model. However, like with anything, large companies will struggle if the economic climate changes for the worst (either side of the pond).
With peoples mortgages becoming too expensive and people having to pay some months on their visa card I doubt that those chaps will still go to AMS on a stag do. They might, but in reduced numbers. Any reduction such as this will affect the P and L account of these airlines.
As you say they've produced record figures in the past 5 years. Yes they have. BUT this has been on the back of 5 years of tremendous unsustainable growth in all markets.
As you and I both said earlier it will be an interesting 12 months. WRT to the new starters I personally believe the worst option would also be to blow large sums of money in a short period.
L Met
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WWW makes some extremely valid points here, and without sounding like I am licking his boots, people embarking upon commercial training would be foolish to not take his points into consideration.
I completed my training in the middle of the year. I am ex-modular who went from zero hours to CPL/IR MCC in over a year and a half period. I jacked in a good career in sales and marketing to persue my dream; and I'm bloody glad that I did because it was one of the most enjoyable and challenging things that I have done with my life to date. But it was a risk, undoubtably.
I think people have to be honest with themselves and understand that this is a very fickle industry indeed. No matter how much the likes of the big Integrated Schools brag on about their employment statistics and the 'Global Pilot Shortage,' a bigger picture has to be taken into consideration. Things change rapidly in a matter of months, if not weeks in the airline world. When I started out at the tail end of 2005, CTC were opening it's doors to a vast number of freshly qualified newbees as their very own courses could not cater for the demands of the likes of EZY et.al. Now this scheme no longer exists and we read of a 12 month waiting pool for existing course graduates. Only a single example, but as we can see, much has changed in very little time.
I'd definetly agree with the suggestion of 'training slow.' Largely because things are changing constantly. I would defintely advise people to be prudent and be prepared to adjust their plans. Maybe a good way to go would be to get your CPL and emabark upon an FIC. As you work your way through your training, you can 'read the market' and make your next big step from there. It would probably be the way I would go about things if I was starting out again.
Goodluck to everyone, and enjoy it. I certainly did
I completed my training in the middle of the year. I am ex-modular who went from zero hours to CPL/IR MCC in over a year and a half period. I jacked in a good career in sales and marketing to persue my dream; and I'm bloody glad that I did because it was one of the most enjoyable and challenging things that I have done with my life to date. But it was a risk, undoubtably.
I think people have to be honest with themselves and understand that this is a very fickle industry indeed. No matter how much the likes of the big Integrated Schools brag on about their employment statistics and the 'Global Pilot Shortage,' a bigger picture has to be taken into consideration. Things change rapidly in a matter of months, if not weeks in the airline world. When I started out at the tail end of 2005, CTC were opening it's doors to a vast number of freshly qualified newbees as their very own courses could not cater for the demands of the likes of EZY et.al. Now this scheme no longer exists and we read of a 12 month waiting pool for existing course graduates. Only a single example, but as we can see, much has changed in very little time.
I'd definetly agree with the suggestion of 'training slow.' Largely because things are changing constantly. I would defintely advise people to be prudent and be prepared to adjust their plans. Maybe a good way to go would be to get your CPL and emabark upon an FIC. As you work your way through your training, you can 'read the market' and make your next big step from there. It would probably be the way I would go about things if I was starting out again.
Goodluck to everyone, and enjoy it. I certainly did
Glad we come to the same conclusions regards training.
Regards your analysis of which business models will suffer in a UK recession. If you have 14 blokes looking for a stag do then the ECONOMICS of going to Amsterdam on a low cost airline seat get BETTER the more price sensitive the stag party organiser becomes. The beer is cheaper, the hotels cheaper and the drugs and hookers are cheaper (shut your eyes kids).
They *could* go out for a pub crawl in their home town and not need an airfare or hotel but most people will want a bit more than that for a stag do. A big night out in London or Edinburgh or Manchester or wherever will end up costing MORE money than the equivalent night out in AMS or PRG even without the flights as beer is £4 a pint and admissions to clubs and meals are so much higher in the UK than abroad.
A lot of the LCC product is aimed squarely at the cost concious. In a recession thats the right product to be selling if its aeroplane seats you are seeking to shift..
You'll also find companies, such as Aibus with their Power8 cost reduction programme, find it very quick and easy to change their staff travel policy. In these demanding times Airbus execs are now required to use a LCC on the route if available whereas up to this summer the policy would see them board Air France or any other flag/full service operator on that route.
Get on an easyJet London to Edinburgh any weekday and you'll see nothing but blokes in suits with laptops..
WWW
Regards your analysis of which business models will suffer in a UK recession. If you have 14 blokes looking for a stag do then the ECONOMICS of going to Amsterdam on a low cost airline seat get BETTER the more price sensitive the stag party organiser becomes. The beer is cheaper, the hotels cheaper and the drugs and hookers are cheaper (shut your eyes kids).
They *could* go out for a pub crawl in their home town and not need an airfare or hotel but most people will want a bit more than that for a stag do. A big night out in London or Edinburgh or Manchester or wherever will end up costing MORE money than the equivalent night out in AMS or PRG even without the flights as beer is £4 a pint and admissions to clubs and meals are so much higher in the UK than abroad.
A lot of the LCC product is aimed squarely at the cost concious. In a recession thats the right product to be selling if its aeroplane seats you are seeking to shift..
You'll also find companies, such as Aibus with their Power8 cost reduction programme, find it very quick and easy to change their staff travel policy. In these demanding times Airbus execs are now required to use a LCC on the route if available whereas up to this summer the policy would see them board Air France or any other flag/full service operator on that route.
Get on an easyJet London to Edinburgh any weekday and you'll see nothing but blokes in suits with laptops..
WWW
Join Date: Nov 2004
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In terms of raising the money to fund your training the UK banks have now given their trading updates for the end of the 2007 financial year (HBOS was the last today... shares down 7-8%)..... to summarise the general mood "By 'eck its grim out there"... to put it simply what they are saying is... "we cannot raise money as no-one will lend it too us at a sensible rate so the outlook for loan growth is very poor"..... the cost of those loans you want for your flight training is about to go up (a lot) if you can get a loan at all.
Also the royal institute of chartered surveyors put out their monthly housing market update today... number of UK house sales has fallen at the fastest pace on record. Over 40% of surveyors reporting house price falls
There is a storm coming folks and as WWW says better batten down the hatches! Anyone who thinks 08 and 09 are going to be good years for airline recruitment in the UK please can I have some of what you are smoking.... it must be good
Also the royal institute of chartered surveyors put out their monthly housing market update today... number of UK house sales has fallen at the fastest pace on record. Over 40% of surveyors reporting house price falls
There is a storm coming folks and as WWW says better batten down the hatches! Anyone who thinks 08 and 09 are going to be good years for airline recruitment in the UK please can I have some of what you are smoking.... it must be good
Join Date: Mar 2001
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Just to back up what a knowledgable few are saying on this post: TUI Travel Figures released today indicate a £27m loss against Thomsonfly scheduled sector and a strong indication from the present Board that any loss making entity will be, over a period of time, dissolved.
It's a rumour network so, would a correct assumption be that's the closure of DCS / CVT and BOH bases and removal of all B737-300's???
Winter and cut backs go hand in hand...just wait until next year!!!!!
It's a rumour network so, would a correct assumption be that's the closure of DCS / CVT and BOH bases and removal of all B737-300's???
Winter and cut backs go hand in hand...just wait until next year!!!!!