Are things slowing down?
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Are things slowing down?
I've been looking at the vacancies at Rishworth and Parc, and the requirements asked of pilots seem to be going up.
Seems everyone wants 500 hours on type, a current type rating and an ATPL just for an FO position.
Is the movement slowing down?
Seems everyone wants 500 hours on type, a current type rating and an ATPL just for an FO position.
Is the movement slowing down?
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I have applied with PARC too for an A320 position.
yes, their clients want hours on type.
I am not surprised, when pilots pay for line training and time building to finish unemployed , why should they hire guys with 0 hours?
yes, their clients want hours on type.
I am not surprised, when pilots pay for line training and time building to finish unemployed , why should they hire guys with 0 hours?
Last edited by dartagnan; 30th Nov 2007 at 10:21.
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Novemeber is always a quiet month. Changing over from the summer season to the winter season. Ski flights and Santa flights have not yet started.
There have also been the mergers of the big 4 UK charter airlines.
Rumour is there maybe (lets hope not) redundancies from them.
I guess they wont know until they have their figures for holiday sales, seat capacity, and fleet sizing for next summer.
There have also been the mergers of the big 4 UK charter airlines.
Rumour is there maybe (lets hope not) redundancies from them.
I guess they wont know until they have their figures for holiday sales, seat capacity, and fleet sizing for next summer.
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Slow down
It is chirstmas time and everything is slowing down for now, even the airline I'm working for is not having any classes or hiring anyone for the time (AND WE ARE SHORT ON CREW VERY SHORT). But it will start end of January. And one more thing soon we will see airlines lowering their minimus for 2008.
Good luck
Good luck
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Easyjet are forecasting fleet growth by 80 aircraft over the next 3 years, Ryanair will double both it's fleet and profit by 2012. Most of the EU major airlines have announced fleet replacement strategies, focussed on the 787/A350 and (fingers crossed) some more will commit to the 747-8.
737/A320/747/777/A330/787 production slots are edging on being fully booked for the next few years. Leasing values for 737's/A320's are very high, with limited short term availability.
The 747-400F production line is fully sold out and the 747-8F will bring with it another era in the air-freight market. Movements in global trade patterns + heavy growth in certain areas of central asia/africa, and the potential for development of an A320 freighter variant, with a rising trend towards internet shopping, integrators and freight carriers are poised for a busy few years to follow.
Fuel prices may be high, but for many European carriers, this has been partly offset by the weak USD, with many airlines gaining with leasing agreements/loans in USD.
Open skies between EU/US are to start March next year and the EU has just started talks with Canada about open skies. Oasis Hong Kong have proved a no-frills model that works between Asia/Europe, with others gearing up to tackle this market.
Emirates/Qatar/Etihad and many of the major asian carriers have very agressive expansion plans, and there are developing pilot shortages in Australia and parts of Asia.
Raising the compulsory retirement age to 65 has diluted the impact of retirements in the short term, however it will be interesting to see age distribution/retirement projections in the coming 2-3 years.
I am wondering if 2008 is just going to be the calm before the storm?!
I am aware that this is only one side of the argument, and would suggest anyone reading this post review some of the more 'doom and gloom' posts, but I thought it was about time someone put together a list of the counter-arguments to some of the more negative posts.
Nonetheless, if you really want to fly, you will do it no matter what the market conditions are... my first training flight was on the day Ansett collapsed.
Back to swimming in a holding pool for me... with the prospect of another year of swimming, but i am sure it will be well worth the wait!
Boonie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFGYcnBFxlw
737/A320/747/777/A330/787 production slots are edging on being fully booked for the next few years. Leasing values for 737's/A320's are very high, with limited short term availability.
The 747-400F production line is fully sold out and the 747-8F will bring with it another era in the air-freight market. Movements in global trade patterns + heavy growth in certain areas of central asia/africa, and the potential for development of an A320 freighter variant, with a rising trend towards internet shopping, integrators and freight carriers are poised for a busy few years to follow.
Fuel prices may be high, but for many European carriers, this has been partly offset by the weak USD, with many airlines gaining with leasing agreements/loans in USD.
Open skies between EU/US are to start March next year and the EU has just started talks with Canada about open skies. Oasis Hong Kong have proved a no-frills model that works between Asia/Europe, with others gearing up to tackle this market.
Emirates/Qatar/Etihad and many of the major asian carriers have very agressive expansion plans, and there are developing pilot shortages in Australia and parts of Asia.
Raising the compulsory retirement age to 65 has diluted the impact of retirements in the short term, however it will be interesting to see age distribution/retirement projections in the coming 2-3 years.
I am wondering if 2008 is just going to be the calm before the storm?!
I am aware that this is only one side of the argument, and would suggest anyone reading this post review some of the more 'doom and gloom' posts, but I thought it was about time someone put together a list of the counter-arguments to some of the more negative posts.
Nonetheless, if you really want to fly, you will do it no matter what the market conditions are... my first training flight was on the day Ansett collapsed.
Back to swimming in a holding pool for me... with the prospect of another year of swimming, but i am sure it will be well worth the wait!
Booniehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFGYcnBFxlw
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Being an aussie is what makes him the legend he is... 
You make a very good point and I thoroughly agree that optimism doesnt pay the bills. I just wanted to point out that there is some blue sky lurking behind the dark clouds...
Boonie
You make a very good point and I thoroughly agree that optimism doesnt pay the bills. I just wanted to point out that there is some blue sky lurking behind the dark clouds...
Boonie
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Hooray!
This site needs more people like Boonie!!
Here's to you my good man. A strong positive attitude. You will go far!!
The rest of you should take note. Stop being so
negative. You all knew the consequences of what you were doing. You are all adults. You all decided to either spend the big bucks (for those of you that had them) or borrow beg and steal (for those of you that could) to get yourselves into what you loved doing. And yes I know that there are some of you for whom its just not possible at all...
Now stop your whining and go and make your destiny happen.
Sometimes I wonder why I keep coming back to this site. You all just whine about how hard the world is and how bad the job market is treating you.
Here's to you my good man. A strong positive attitude. You will go far!!
The rest of you should take note. Stop being so
negative. You all knew the consequences of what you were doing. You are all adults. You all decided to either spend the big bucks (for those of you that had them) or borrow beg and steal (for those of you that could) to get yourselves into what you loved doing. And yes I know that there are some of you for whom its just not possible at all...Now stop your whining and go and make your destiny happen.
Sometimes I wonder why I keep coming back to this site. You all just whine about how hard the world is and how bad the job market is treating you.
US recession plus Open Skies may knacker the transatlantic party for some established names next year. House price crashes in Ireland, France, Spain, Southern Italy, Denmark and the UK are all under way and will seriously stunt the economy and second home ownership.
The Euro at 1.5 Dollars is threatening to cripple Airbus with its 2,200 Billion DOLLAR orderbook and its costbase in EURO... Same goes for many large European companies with worldwide sales.
All lo-co expansion will occur on the continent and with the big UK Charter airlines merging they will be looking for efficiencies not new hiring. Winter is not even half way yet and traditionally we see an airline go bankrupt over it. Won't be long now.
2008 is surely the year that Alitalia will finally collapse like the the walking zombie it has been for many years and they may just be the first.
The last recession started in 1990. Do a google search on the "18 yr economic cycle" and then check the calendar. Go on, do it.
Avoid sharp debt. Train slowly, train cheaply, train modular. Would be my advice right now. Moderate turbulence ahead.
WWW
The Euro at 1.5 Dollars is threatening to cripple Airbus with its 2,200 Billion DOLLAR orderbook and its costbase in EURO... Same goes for many large European companies with worldwide sales.
All lo-co expansion will occur on the continent and with the big UK Charter airlines merging they will be looking for efficiencies not new hiring. Winter is not even half way yet and traditionally we see an airline go bankrupt over it. Won't be long now.
2008 is surely the year that Alitalia will finally collapse like the the walking zombie it has been for many years and they may just be the first.
The last recession started in 1990. Do a google search on the "18 yr economic cycle" and then check the calendar. Go on, do it.
Avoid sharp debt. Train slowly, train cheaply, train modular. Would be my advice right now. Moderate turbulence ahead.
WWW
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EasyJet = 120 firm orders, Ryanair = 170 firm orders
290 planes at 5.5 crew each = 1595 new pilots over the next 5 years, that's 319 pilots a year going to Locos. Is this outlook too simplistic? If so, why?
Thanks
290 planes at 5.5 crew each = 1595 new pilots over the next 5 years, that's 319 pilots a year going to Locos. Is this outlook too simplistic? If so, why?
Thanks
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Boonanza and Topslide6,
Both good posts and together promoting a balanced view!
WWW, haha.. Don't you just love a realist! You say go modular! With the benefit of hindsight I can see more merit in this if people choose their training package carefully. However, there are merits to the in house/integrated route still particulary when looking at recruitment for certain airlines and for guys that couldn't afford jack (like me), even modular, so went and won a cash cow via a large FTO instead.
If the slowdown does kick in then an interesting indicator will be when the likes of HSBC stop providing 80 odd grand unsecured loans to OAT and CTC cadets once they have passed the respective selection processes! (Especially as banks are now tightening up on lending). Along with the likes of FTE & Cabair (with the CTC ramp up on output due to hit the market anytime now), I think there is going to be alot of swimming in hold pools by integrated/in house students with scores of modular students fighting for a swim too. Potentially alot of unserviced debt! The key to it all is timing. Somewhat a black art.
My personal worry is a looming recession in the US and the knock on effects this will have on Europe & Asia. For sure many good indicators outlined by Boonanza but also mergers and consolidation to think about too! Maybe it's just me being paranoid but I get the general sense things are beginning to slow everywhere! As for the UK, many have pissed the last 10 years away under Blair and all the Champagne has now been drank. Personal debt is at an all time high with the banks beginning to struggle.
I think we are going to be in for an interesting year or 2 which ever way it goes!
Housing prices falling through the floor whilst being able to hold down a well paid jet job would be ideal!
However, I guess that's asking for trouble!!
Both good posts and together promoting a balanced view!
WWW, haha.. Don't you just love a realist! You say go modular! With the benefit of hindsight I can see more merit in this if people choose their training package carefully. However, there are merits to the in house/integrated route still particulary when looking at recruitment for certain airlines and for guys that couldn't afford jack (like me), even modular, so went and won a cash cow via a large FTO instead.
If the slowdown does kick in then an interesting indicator will be when the likes of HSBC stop providing 80 odd grand unsecured loans to OAT and CTC cadets once they have passed the respective selection processes! (Especially as banks are now tightening up on lending). Along with the likes of FTE & Cabair (with the CTC ramp up on output due to hit the market anytime now), I think there is going to be alot of swimming in hold pools by integrated/in house students with scores of modular students fighting for a swim too. Potentially alot of unserviced debt! The key to it all is timing. Somewhat a black art.
My personal worry is a looming recession in the US and the knock on effects this will have on Europe & Asia. For sure many good indicators outlined by Boonanza but also mergers and consolidation to think about too! Maybe it's just me being paranoid but I get the general sense things are beginning to slow everywhere! As for the UK, many have pissed the last 10 years away under Blair and all the Champagne has now been drank. Personal debt is at an all time high with the banks beginning to struggle.
I think we are going to be in for an interesting year or 2 which ever way it goes!
Housing prices falling through the floor whilst being able to hold down a well paid jet job would be ideal!
However, I guess that's asking for trouble!!
Last edited by Diamond_Dog; 2nd Dec 2007 at 22:02.
Do not count aircraft orders as jobs.
Aircraft orders made some years ago at attractive post Sept 11th prices need not ever result in an actual aircraft based in the UK. If the market for tickets is week an airline can take delivery in the morning and then hand it over to a leasing company in the afternoon and pocket a big cheque for its trouble.
The leasing company then flies it over to the booming regions of India and China and leases it to some new startup airline. Not a sniff of a job for Joe Wannabe. Maybe good news for Xhagtse Wannabe or Rubjab Wannable though.
Looking around todays papers shows ample evidence of tight times ahead.
From the Daily Telegraph:
Shares in UK restaurant owners were slammed this morning after The Clapham House Group, owner of the Gourmet Burger Kitchen and Tootsies chains, warned that British consumers are slashing their spending.
Clapham House shares dived almost 50 pc on the news, and dragged shares in The Restaurant Group and Domino's Pizza down by about 10pc each.
The Telegraph also has:
ScS Upholstery has become the latest retailer to warn that consumer confidence is in sharp decline. ScS expects shoppers to avoid big-ticket items
The specialist sofa retailer warned at its annual general meeting today that "challenging trading conditions" were likely to hit its interim results.
Total sales of the Sunderland-based retailer are down 9pc for the first 17 weeks of the current financial year, while like for like sales are down by 16 pc.
Mike Browne, executive chairman of ScS, said interest rate rises and the credit squeeze are now taking their toll.
"Trading conditions have been much more challenging than anticipated," he said. "Consumer confidence has been severely hit by hit with regard to 'big ticket' purchases."
And that's one paper on one day. Economics is a dismal science and an imprecise one. It leads me at the moment to be very cautious and bearish on the prospects of 2008 and 2009 UK economy.
Good luck,
WWW
Aircraft orders made some years ago at attractive post Sept 11th prices need not ever result in an actual aircraft based in the UK. If the market for tickets is week an airline can take delivery in the morning and then hand it over to a leasing company in the afternoon and pocket a big cheque for its trouble.
The leasing company then flies it over to the booming regions of India and China and leases it to some new startup airline. Not a sniff of a job for Joe Wannabe. Maybe good news for Xhagtse Wannabe or Rubjab Wannable though.
Looking around todays papers shows ample evidence of tight times ahead.
From the Daily Telegraph:
Shares in UK restaurant owners were slammed this morning after The Clapham House Group, owner of the Gourmet Burger Kitchen and Tootsies chains, warned that British consumers are slashing their spending.
Clapham House shares dived almost 50 pc on the news, and dragged shares in The Restaurant Group and Domino's Pizza down by about 10pc each.
The Telegraph also has:
ScS Upholstery has become the latest retailer to warn that consumer confidence is in sharp decline. ScS expects shoppers to avoid big-ticket items
The specialist sofa retailer warned at its annual general meeting today that "challenging trading conditions" were likely to hit its interim results.
Total sales of the Sunderland-based retailer are down 9pc for the first 17 weeks of the current financial year, while like for like sales are down by 16 pc.
Mike Browne, executive chairman of ScS, said interest rate rises and the credit squeeze are now taking their toll.
"Trading conditions have been much more challenging than anticipated," he said. "Consumer confidence has been severely hit by hit with regard to 'big ticket' purchases."
And that's one paper on one day. Economics is a dismal science and an imprecise one. It leads me at the moment to be very cautious and bearish on the prospects of 2008 and 2009 UK economy.
Good luck,
WWW
And don't just think its the Telegraph on the Right who are predicting disaster. Larry Elliot the Economics Editor of The Guardian writes this today:
The UK is facing at best a painful correction in the property market and at worst a full-blown crash that could wipe about £50,000 off the value of the average home over the next few years. Why? Because none of the explanations for the UK being a special case really stack up. If the British property market looks like a bubble, feels like a bubble, smells like a bubble, then it is a bubble.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2....marketturmoil
Any wannabe under the age of 30 doesn't remember the house price crash of 1990 and the recession of that time and the scale and speed of devastation that it wreaked on the commercial flying industry.
Those that fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.
WWW
ps Merry Christmas!
The UK is facing at best a painful correction in the property market and at worst a full-blown crash that could wipe about £50,000 off the value of the average home over the next few years. Why? Because none of the explanations for the UK being a special case really stack up. If the British property market looks like a bubble, feels like a bubble, smells like a bubble, then it is a bubble.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2....marketturmoil
Any wannabe under the age of 30 doesn't remember the house price crash of 1990 and the recession of that time and the scale and speed of devastation that it wreaked on the commercial flying industry.
Those that fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.
WWW
ps Merry Christmas!
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And the big reason for this predicted crash is the huge levels of personal debt people have got into......such as flight training at rediculously over priced schools cos that's the 'only way to get a job'!!!!!!!
This is a critical function of PPRuNe Wannabes you know. There is a tsunami of marketing spin and vested interests out there all just itching for Joe Wannabe to take the plunge and start writing cheques.
Hopefully here you get the unvarnished truth, alternative view and note of caution. 'Cause you won't find it anywhere else much.
Good luck,
WWW
Hopefully here you get the unvarnished truth, alternative view and note of caution. 'Cause you won't find it anywhere else much.
Good luck,
WWW