Londonmet - I don't share your analysis.
Both companies you mentioned have posted record profits each year for the past 5 years and both have cash balance sheets in the order of £100m in operating cashflow. In an economic recession the LCC's gain business and non-discretionary passengers from the more expensive full fare airlines as staff travel policies are reconfigured for leaner times. Both airlines have extensive domestic operations which again are often non-discretionary, e.g. the only way to get to/from University or see Granny is to fly or face a £350 rail/ferry fare or 10hrs on the road. Both also have significantly diversified market operations, i.e. if the Brit consumer goes on strike they have the Spanish/German/French/Italian/Scandanavian consumer to fall back on, the eggs are in several baskets.
LCC's do indeed have a low margin and high volumes. Yet last week it was Maxjet with tiny volumes of high margin business passengers that had its shares being suspended pending clarification of its financial health. Meanwhile easyJet very very narrowly missed being placed in the FTSE 100 this week.
If there is a big recession and it involved the USA then you don't want to be heavily exposed to the transatlantic market, the business market or the private jet market. Lads will always go on stag do's to Prague or Amsterdam or wherever because the economics of it stack up (cheap beer) and the attractions (girls, drugs) are laid on. Photo copier salesman will always need to fly to that exhibition in Frankfurt. Granny will always need to be visited in Scotland.
It was in the last economic and airline crisis post Sept11th that LCC's ordered new aircraft and entered new markets as other long established (Sabena was the oldest airline in Europe I believe) retrenched or went bust. I expect the same pattern this time.
My advice remains to train slowly, cheaply and avoid high debt levels as you go along. Now is not the time to blow £75k in 12 months in a mad rush to join the party whilst its still swinging. A year ago or more then that was a viable strategy. I don't think it is anymore.
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