Pilot shortages, News Events, And What Are The Effects On Airline Jobs?
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Originally Posted by Mister-Sheep
Scroggs
From your experience, would you say this is due in the next 1-2 years?
From your experience, would you say this is due in the next 1-2 years?
Scroggs
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Lucifer, I beg to differ. Didn't the oil price change over a dollar a barrel last week after one analyst on one TV station expressed an opinion on whether there would be an Israeli invasion or not? Prices are driven by sentiment, and profits are driven by 1) fluctuations in prices to allow traders to earn commission, and 2) higher prices - if you stay on the same margins, your profits are far higher, witness the enormous profits currently being made by oil companies. China is a red herring - it is a major factor in higher prices, but are you telling me they would be as high with China but without what has happened in the Middle East?
Scroggs knows as well as anyone else the cyclical nature of the business, and the source of a potential downturn is irrelevant - because if it's not one thing it's something else. I would suggest that much higher oil prices will shut down airlines, especially recent startups or LCCs who got their pricing or strategy wrong. The survivors will be the more established majors or LCCs with deep pockets - less airlines will mean less choice and higher prices, apart from the higher costs due to fuel bills.
Scroggs knows as well as anyone else the cyclical nature of the business, and the source of a potential downturn is irrelevant - because if it's not one thing it's something else. I would suggest that much higher oil prices will shut down airlines, especially recent startups or LCCs who got their pricing or strategy wrong. The survivors will be the more established majors or LCCs with deep pockets - less airlines will mean less choice and higher prices, apart from the higher costs due to fuel bills.
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To be honest i was absolutely shocked to see prices go up by 2-3p on petrol, as i'd heard on the news a couple of times last week that oil prices and gone down slightly!!
....
Sicky - if you are that worried about the cost of fuel, consider for a moment the percentage of the price at the pump which goes into the Chancellors pocket. The recent price rises to not appear to have reduced the number of cars on the road - drivers will make sacrifices elsewhere in their budgets in order to keep driving.
Some of us remember interest rates at 15-17% - now that would really make a few eyes water !
Some of us remember interest rates at 15-17% - now that would really make a few eyes water !
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I see a lot of international money poured in to Lebanon, to help re-builed the country.
This means some cargo traffic over there, including support for the international force that will be stationed there.
This means some cargo traffic over there, including support for the international force that will be stationed there.
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International money into Lebanon, if and when it does happen, is not going to make a blind bit of difference to the world economy.
There are many pressures on that economy at the moment, and most of them are inflationary. Inflation means higher interest rates, which slow - or even stop - industrial growth. If higher rates are applied quickly and fairly ruthlessly, those inflationary pressures can be halted - if they are under the influence of the economy setting the rates. At the moment, the main inflationary pressure is fuel (oil, gas and electricity) costs, most of which will not respond to interest rate changes in the US or EU. That means that those extra and increasing costs, along with those caused by the inevitable higher interest rates, must continue be absorbed by industries out of margins which are reducing due to competitive pressures, and need to be factored into long-term costings in those companies which have long term policies. Which isn't many.
I think that the West is going to suffer in the short to medium term because of these inflationary pressures, and that the airline industry will exaggerate the general trend, as it always does. When will the downturn come? I think it's already started, but it's a gentle slope as yet. I haven't read an economic forecast yet that suggests that oil prices are likely to drop significantly, and oil futures suggest longer-term prices of $100+ a barrel in the next year or two. With aviation fuel at $750 or so a tonne right now (it was $250 only two years ago), that suggests that $1000 - $1100 a tonne is not far away. Few airlines can sustain a further 25 - 30% increase in fuel prices without drawing in the financial reins somewhat. And now the EU is set to impose fuel taxes...
I'd guess that we won't see much change this year, but that the evidence will begin to stack up next year that a general downturn is on the way. Maybe next year, maybe in two years' time. It could then take 18 months to 3 years for us to reach the bottom of that trough before we start climbing out of it again. How deep will the trough be? Too difficult to judge; there are far too many uncertainties to even hazard a guess - especially for a non-expert like me. It could be a minor blip, or it could be a significant slowdown affecting most industrial and financial areas. The only thing that's certain is that it will come, and that we'll look back on 2004-2006 (as we did on 1997-2001) as one of aviation's high spots.
Scroggs
There are many pressures on that economy at the moment, and most of them are inflationary. Inflation means higher interest rates, which slow - or even stop - industrial growth. If higher rates are applied quickly and fairly ruthlessly, those inflationary pressures can be halted - if they are under the influence of the economy setting the rates. At the moment, the main inflationary pressure is fuel (oil, gas and electricity) costs, most of which will not respond to interest rate changes in the US or EU. That means that those extra and increasing costs, along with those caused by the inevitable higher interest rates, must continue be absorbed by industries out of margins which are reducing due to competitive pressures, and need to be factored into long-term costings in those companies which have long term policies. Which isn't many.
I think that the West is going to suffer in the short to medium term because of these inflationary pressures, and that the airline industry will exaggerate the general trend, as it always does. When will the downturn come? I think it's already started, but it's a gentle slope as yet. I haven't read an economic forecast yet that suggests that oil prices are likely to drop significantly, and oil futures suggest longer-term prices of $100+ a barrel in the next year or two. With aviation fuel at $750 or so a tonne right now (it was $250 only two years ago), that suggests that $1000 - $1100 a tonne is not far away. Few airlines can sustain a further 25 - 30% increase in fuel prices without drawing in the financial reins somewhat. And now the EU is set to impose fuel taxes...
I'd guess that we won't see much change this year, but that the evidence will begin to stack up next year that a general downturn is on the way. Maybe next year, maybe in two years' time. It could then take 18 months to 3 years for us to reach the bottom of that trough before we start climbing out of it again. How deep will the trough be? Too difficult to judge; there are far too many uncertainties to even hazard a guess - especially for a non-expert like me. It could be a minor blip, or it could be a significant slowdown affecting most industrial and financial areas. The only thing that's certain is that it will come, and that we'll look back on 2004-2006 (as we did on 1997-2001) as one of aviation's high spots.
Scroggs
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Job outlook for 2007, after recent events? Where is the industry going?
Just wonered what the thoughts were from other people going through flying training at the moment in light of today's events in the UK.
Does this make you more determined to continue and get that flying job, or now wishing (as more events like this occur) you had chose a different career path ?.
For me, I'm still just as determined as ever, I've already been in the industry for 14 years on the ground, so events like this make no difference for me.
Does this make you more determined to continue and get that flying job, or now wishing (as more events like this occur) you had chose a different career path ?.
For me, I'm still just as determined as ever, I've already been in the industry for 14 years on the ground, so events like this make no difference for me.
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Great minds think alike leezyjet. I was going to ask the very same question! In my opinion, NOTHING will stop the dream that I have held since I was 7 years old. The only way to show these b@$t@rd$ who's boss is by not letting them dictate our lives.
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This has had not changed my mind at all either. However, it could trigger another downturn in air travel due to people just not wanting to take the risks, which would unfortunately kill off a lot of the potential jobs for people like us.
We'll just have to wait and see now...
We'll just have to wait and see now...
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Originally Posted by sicky
downturn in air travel due to people just not wanting to take the risks
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Originally Posted by femaleWannabe
P.S. I've always wondered why they ban tweezers etc but allow you to take loads of bottles of duty free on board... Im guessing a large glass bottle over the captains head would cause more damage than trying to stab him with a pair of tweezers?!
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Yep, this hasn't put me off wanting to achieve my ambition.
When ambitions are so great since a young age, one will achieve them.
What we have learnt is that since Sep. 11th, terrorism is a thing we will all have to live with throughout our lives, as it quite unlikely will disappear.
I would also be concerned about what effect this might have on the industry and obtaining that first job, but I think based on these terrorists being caught "before" they are able to carry out their terror, will minimize the overall effects on the industry.
I would hate to think if we had to go through another low point.
Sadly, as like many things, aviation is vulnerable to terrorism.
When ambitions are so great since a young age, one will achieve them.
What we have learnt is that since Sep. 11th, terrorism is a thing we will all have to live with throughout our lives, as it quite unlikely will disappear.
I would also be concerned about what effect this might have on the industry and obtaining that first job, but I think based on these terrorists being caught "before" they are able to carry out their terror, will minimize the overall effects on the industry.
I would hate to think if we had to go through another low point.
Sadly, as like many things, aviation is vulnerable to terrorism.
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You can't get to the captain, as he's behind a locked and armoured door. You can try it on your next door neighboor if you like, but I'm not taking the aeroplane anywhere other than where I want to, even if his head's a bloody pulp.
As for jobs, yes, the events of today will have some effect on passengers. The Japanese will largely stop flying, as they always do whenever a security event happens in a tiurist destination. Some Americans will also cancel flights, as their airlines were the targets of this plot. As the dollar is worth sod all just now, many had decided to holiday in the USA anyway, so the percentage difference won't be high.
Most other nationalities will carry on as they were. Even after 9/11, passenger loads bottomed out at around 70% of normal (after the first few days). Today's events will have little effect after a week or two. Hand-baggage restrictions are likely to be lifted in time, though more effective screening of hand-baggage may be introduced. Explosive and chemical detection will be one of the first new things to be introduced on hand-baggage screening - it's already being deployed for passenger screening. Intelligence-led passenger profiling (currently illegal in some countries) will increasingly be applied whether legal or not.
If all this does something to temper the currently crazy rate of aviation expansion, that won't be a bad thing. There are far more serious threats to aviation on the horizon - fuel taxation among them. It would be something of a breath of fresh air (pun intended) for the industry forecasters and investors to stop believing that this industry can expand indefinitely with no limits, checks or controls.
Scroggs
As for jobs, yes, the events of today will have some effect on passengers. The Japanese will largely stop flying, as they always do whenever a security event happens in a tiurist destination. Some Americans will also cancel flights, as their airlines were the targets of this plot. As the dollar is worth sod all just now, many had decided to holiday in the USA anyway, so the percentage difference won't be high.
Most other nationalities will carry on as they were. Even after 9/11, passenger loads bottomed out at around 70% of normal (after the first few days). Today's events will have little effect after a week or two. Hand-baggage restrictions are likely to be lifted in time, though more effective screening of hand-baggage may be introduced. Explosive and chemical detection will be one of the first new things to be introduced on hand-baggage screening - it's already being deployed for passenger screening. Intelligence-led passenger profiling (currently illegal in some countries) will increasingly be applied whether legal or not.
If all this does something to temper the currently crazy rate of aviation expansion, that won't be a bad thing. There are far more serious threats to aviation on the horizon - fuel taxation among them. It would be something of a breath of fresh air (pun intended) for the industry forecasters and investors to stop believing that this industry can expand indefinitely with no limits, checks or controls.
Scroggs
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Originally Posted by kazi285
hi guys i just received and information pack from oxford aviation training and just wondering if anyone knows how much it costs to accomplish the ATPL and ready to go for type rating?
cheers
P.S im soo confused wether to go florida or stsy in UK and do it and pay more money.
if theres any oxford graduates please advice me
thanks
cheers
P.S im soo confused wether to go florida or stsy in UK and do it and pay more money.
if theres any oxford graduates please advice me
thanks
I live right next to heathrow, its madness at the moment, my cusin is a cabin crew member for BA he went off this morning, and my dad returned back from a holiday this morning
