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HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS !!

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS !!

Old 19th Aug 2020, 04:40
  #1 (permalink)  
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
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HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS !!

For the benefit of those who doesn't get the SCMP with their morning coffee.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...es-uncertainty

“Surely part of the restructuring is a take-it-or-leave-it for the pilots – take a new contract or redundancy,” said a company veteran not authorised to speak to the media.

Pretty much sums it all up. Good luck to all, may the force be with you.
Curry Lamb is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 05:17
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Join Date: Aug 2020
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If the industry is expected to recover ~2023/24 why accept anything other than temporary changes to your contract?
0ztranaut is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 05:28
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: CLK
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I am sure CX will do the RIGHT thing and make sure there are snapback provisions when there is a return to profitability!
Or more likely, never miss the opportunity in a crisis.....
Farman Biplane is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 06:04
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Join Date: Dec 2015
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Funny that you're posting a link of an article written by someone who probably got his "information" here.

Not even my managers friends know for sure what's coming.
His "veteran" anonymous source is only guessing. And his guess is as good as anyone's.
Zapp_Brannigan is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 06:23
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Join Date: Aug 2015
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Yes obviously a slack day for copy down at SCMP metro. Only two 90 year olds perished yesterday so Danny has been drafted in to fill top slot.
SCMP. Hong Kong’s answer to the Daily [email protected] !
Globocnik is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 09:45
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Join Date: May 2019
Location: usa
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It is shocking that everyone here is living in dream land. This take it or leave it deal will be presented to us in October! If you don't think this will happen then you are probably the dumbest of the dumb.
You have time to plan now, use it to plan your finances and see if you can accept a cos18 type package.

Everyone that did not take ERS and was considering it, but wanted to stay to "stick" it to the company you going to regret it!

herewego75 is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 10:06
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Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Sydney
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Ha! "take it or leave it !!!" It's sheer brilliance ! They will save heaps of money, which is super important right now, while at the same time kissing goodbye to those Pilots who are opposed to the "take it or leave it" style offer, i.e. the very same "expensive" Pilots they have been wanting to get rid of since '08. A masterstroke & a win win for the company and shareholders and HK government !
N.B. Strategy likely to be reviewed later, after A350 size, great smoking hole left in the ground.....
Busbitch is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 10:39
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Danny's 'source' is this thread.
CodyBlade is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 10:48
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Join Date: May 2007
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Take it or leave it is still a risk to the company. Should an organised and cohesive workforce decide to "leave it" CX/KA will be grounded. Bargaining power?
There are almost no COS18 Captains at the moment. The vast majority affected will be CN and FO's.
What are the chances of that happening? Well lets see what the COS99/08ers and HKAOA and can conjure up.
Take it or leave it is a now or never moment.
Farman Biplane is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 16:26
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Join Date: Jan 2006
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‘Organised and cohesive workforce’.... bwahahahaha!!😂😂😂😂😂
Kitsune is offline  
Old 19th Aug 2020, 17:12
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Just remember that the SCMP is owned by Alibaba, a CCP mouthpiece.
BalusKaptan is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2020, 01:50
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Join Date: Aug 2018
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That didn’t impact their reporting last year they were distinctly anti government
Tappingtheadmiral is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2020, 08:49
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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Honestly, you lot need to get out of Hong Kong for a while and away from the vortex of doom you all talk yourselves into.

There is a future to this industry beyond the next 12-24 months. Rather than already accepting defeat and conceding that some sub standard contract is inevitable, why not focus on what is required long term.

You let lazy, high school standard journalists, writing unsourced articles determine how your future will play out. Really?

I don’t doubt there’s some pain coming, but it does not need to be catastrophic. Hanging out in the Plaza promoting defeatist attitudes is some perverse form of self harm.

How about we focus not only on how to get through the next 12-24 months, but also on the next 2 decades and what a successful airline will need to be equipped with.

We’ve just discovered there’s a fair few of our numbers who can’t safely operate to the required standard if they aren’t flying weekly. Now is not the time to be kissing farewell to every experienced crew member in the joint.
ron burgandy is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2020, 14:18
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Well said Ron.
Dilbert68 is offline  
Old 21st Aug 2020, 02:18
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Join Date: Jul 2018
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Originally Posted by ron burgandy View Post
Honestly, you lot need to get out of Hong Kong for a while and away from the vortex of doom you all talk yourselves into.
I believe we all want to get out of Hong Kong for a while, it’s just, we have nowhere to go. 14 days isolation there, 14 days isolation here. That takes up almost a month. Tho I admire your optimism.
ChrissyPrezzie is offline  
Old 21st Aug 2020, 09:33
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A short 5 day trip is 14+5+14 total of 33 days!.
CodyBlade is offline  
Old 21st Aug 2020, 09:50
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Join Date: Aug 2015
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Lunacy. All of it. And achieves stuff all.
Globocnik is offline  
Old 21st Aug 2020, 11:37
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.

Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80.

So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me.

The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden.

Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert)

Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system?


Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.

Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown.

And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%.

Clearly i am missing something about Victoria- maybe it is just state premiers being able to exercise, and abuse, power for the first time since federation almost 120 years ago.
Numero Crunchero is offline  
Old 21st Aug 2020, 12:39
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Join Date: Dec 2015
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NC,

I agree with what you said, except maybe for the Swedish example, their population density being very different than other countries around the world (especially HK).
Furthermore, their self-discipline compared to other Southern Euro countries could well have played a big role in their good results.

Seeing how bad it was in Italy when it all started, it was logic to impose a lockdown or at least restrict travels.
But now that hospitals around the world are basically empty?
It seems nobody taking decisions knows what the R stands for in the CLEAR model...

Zapp_Brannigan is offline  
Old 21st Aug 2020, 23:20
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
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Originally Posted by Zapp_Brannigan View Post
NC,

It seems nobody taking decisions knows what the R stands for in the CLEAR model...
I think it stands for Retire to the bar
LongTimeInCX is offline  

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