HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS !!
Joined: Mar 2000
Posts: 71
Likes: 0
From: Gold Coast
Numero Crunchero
I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.
It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.
I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.
It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 101
Likes: 0
From: Australia
That’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying that there is an acceptable level of death in the world and that COVID has only marginally affected it. It is the decisions of governments around the world that he is disagreeing with. There is an acceptable risk of death in many things we do, but the governments don’t ban everything. You have a chance of dying on the roads, but the government don’t ban cars. If you’re worried about dying on the roads, don’t drive but allow people who want to accept that risk to do so. If you’re worried about dying from the ‘Rona then don’t go outside. We live in a (mostly) free world, allow individuals to make their own minds up and assess the risks for themselves.
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 198
Likes: 2
From: Hotel
Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just like in large parts of Europe the death rates will most likely reduce to almost nothing. Let's hope this is true - and a lot of data now point that way.
If this turns out to be the case - and we will know within the next month or two - then the worst is over and in the EU and the USA life will quickly get back to normal with or without a vaccine.
However HKG, Aus and NZ have painted themselves into a corner with their zero infection policy. And we will be stuck waiting for a vaccine for another year while the western world gets on with life. And their airlines will be flying while cx and quantas slowly go bankrupt.
If this turns out to be the case - and we will know within the next month or two - then the worst is over and in the EU and the USA life will quickly get back to normal with or without a vaccine.
However HKG, Aus and NZ have painted themselves into a corner with their zero infection policy. And we will be stuck waiting for a vaccine for another year while the western world gets on with life. And their airlines will be flying while cx and quantas slowly go bankrupt.
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 101
Likes: 0
From: Australia
Laws (such as the seatbelt one) attempt to reduce the risk to as low a point as possible without sacrificing everything else. It is not black and white, everything is a fine balancing act, I would argue most governments around the world have tilted too far in the wrong direction and everybody is paying the price for that. There was a significant element of “follow the leader” as to what was working and what was not. I won’t even get into the “modelling” debacles. If I had to ask myself, where would I rather be right now, 9 months after the initial outbreak? Victoria under stage 4 lockdown, or Sweden under, well nothing? Even if it meant my elderly parents may die 1-2 years early? Easy decision for me. At least I’d get to visit them before they croaked.
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 875
Likes: 27
From: Gerloz
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 198
Likes: 2
From: Hotel
Here's a scenario for you..
A year from now. The property market has crashed, most hotels and local businesses as well as airlines are bankrupt.
All of hkg gets vaccinated by something thats about 60% effective ( scientists are hoping to see 60%)
Hkg opens up.
Out of 7 million people in hkg there absolutely will be a certain amount who gets sick at that point since the vaccine isn't 100% effective. How many? Maybe conservatively 5% of the population. That's 350000 cases. How many will die? A few thousand since we now know the virus basically only kills old people and those with existing medical issues.
With or without a vaccine there will eventually be deaths.
So to answer you question as to "what they'd prefer" - most older people would probably prefer for the rest of the world's population who are not at risk to get on with their lives while old people are protected. So that the planet doesn't go bankrupt. So that millions don't go hungry. So that millions of children get education. Etc etc..
What will hkg ( and NZ and Aus) do once they have thousands of cases after the vaccination?? Shut down again? Close the schools again?
The above outcome is already achieved in places like Sweden. Without a vaccine they had most likely about 15-20 % of the population infected. And STILL ONLY A FEW THOUSAND DEATHS. As will probably be the case in hkg anyway even with a vaccine. And they did not destroy their economy and society in the process.
A year from now. The property market has crashed, most hotels and local businesses as well as airlines are bankrupt.
All of hkg gets vaccinated by something thats about 60% effective ( scientists are hoping to see 60%)
Hkg opens up.
Out of 7 million people in hkg there absolutely will be a certain amount who gets sick at that point since the vaccine isn't 100% effective. How many? Maybe conservatively 5% of the population. That's 350000 cases. How many will die? A few thousand since we now know the virus basically only kills old people and those with existing medical issues.
With or without a vaccine there will eventually be deaths.
So to answer you question as to "what they'd prefer" - most older people would probably prefer for the rest of the world's population who are not at risk to get on with their lives while old people are protected. So that the planet doesn't go bankrupt. So that millions don't go hungry. So that millions of children get education. Etc etc..
What will hkg ( and NZ and Aus) do once they have thousands of cases after the vaccination?? Shut down again? Close the schools again?
The above outcome is already achieved in places like Sweden. Without a vaccine they had most likely about 15-20 % of the population infected. And STILL ONLY A FEW THOUSAND DEATHS. As will probably be the case in hkg anyway even with a vaccine. And they did not destroy their economy and society in the process.
Joined: Dec 1998
Posts: 223
Likes: 66
Well, that outcome was solely due to Sweden having a courageous, sensible and focused leadership. Not the headline seeking careerists who inhabit most western Governments. We've destroyed a decade of economic growth in 5 months, allowed craven politicians to become authoritarian despots and harmed and killed millions through economic distress and poverty of health care (think of the other illnesses that haven't been treated over the past half year, involving millions of people worldwide...cancers, heart disease etc..). This will prove historically to have been the greatest and most tragic farce in modern human existence. Nothing short of an abomination and outrage.
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 267
Likes: 0
From: All over
Ya got that right.
Boy do you got that right.
A complete farce in the mistaken belief you can control something you cannot control. And then shifting the goalposts to further bureaucratic self-interests. Enabled by frightened mice who bought into the lie that you can bubble wrap life. Everything has an opportunity cost, and nothing in life is free.
Herd immunity may well work, but the herds can also do some pretty stupid stuff when it comes to mental health and fear based decision making. Placing ones trust in those who should not be trusted and validating the Sage of Baltimore's words about trusting some 'smart' government authority to make a good--or even reasonable--choice: "the worship of jackals by jackasses"
Boy do you got that right.
A complete farce in the mistaken belief you can control something you cannot control. And then shifting the goalposts to further bureaucratic self-interests. Enabled by frightened mice who bought into the lie that you can bubble wrap life. Everything has an opportunity cost, and nothing in life is free.
Herd immunity may well work, but the herds can also do some pretty stupid stuff when it comes to mental health and fear based decision making. Placing ones trust in those who should not be trusted and validating the Sage of Baltimore's words about trusting some 'smart' government authority to make a good--or even reasonable--choice: "the worship of jackals by jackasses"
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 552
Likes: 22
From: Hong Kong
I won’t take credit for the following, it was forwarded to me. I think it summarizes the madness that has gripped mankind:
Corona Virus is the new Global Religion – gathering new believers among the masses like Greta and climate change could not. As evidence consider the following:
– This movement aims to indoctrinate, isolate adherents (or convince them to ‘self-isolate’) and bombard them with 24/7 mental programming.
– Disconnect them from their old ways and culture. Enforce a cancel culture upon non-believers. To shut down and eradicate the Old System.
– Corona is the omnipresent god and sees all. It can get you at home, at work, in the car, in bed, and especially doing fun stuff. (No wonder some other religions ban dancing and frivolity.)
– Non believers and mockers will be stricken with Corona, for they are Sinners.
– You were born sick/sinner. You have no method of proving your health. As a concequence you must attone daily with purification rituals – using Purell, natch.
– You must believe and await the return of your saviour, the vaccine. Beware the false vaccines that are not 100% effective.
– Until that time you must live a pure lifestyle, alone, as in a monastary.
– When in front of your god you must remain reverant, hushed and masked. Do not show ones face, do not question the narrative, or you will be stricken.
– Corona had a virgin birth, got it? Racist.
– Science plays little part in it. The media will ordain the truth.
– Your government and the media are the physical manifestation of the Corona gods. They are the Oracles. Only they can divine the truth and communicate it to you via daily manna sermons – on your personal electronic device.
– At least once daily you should check the Corona numbers and scores. It will give you an idea of how many sinners live among us.
— Gensis: Great reverence is paid to the Flu of 1918. Perhaps spoken about on bended knee. This was 1918 – BCV (Before Corona Virus)
– In the future, all heathens and heretics will be marked by a social justice virtue score. Only those with sufficient virtue, only those which took the communion – the chip, the needle, whatever – will be allowed to gather.
Just raise your arms, wear your Freedom Masks and give thanks. Maybe, one day, far into the future, after all have been cleansed, you might get freedoms back. You must believe in this redemption.
I wish I were joking…
Corona Virus is the new Global Religion – gathering new believers among the masses like Greta and climate change could not. As evidence consider the following:
– This movement aims to indoctrinate, isolate adherents (or convince them to ‘self-isolate’) and bombard them with 24/7 mental programming.
– Disconnect them from their old ways and culture. Enforce a cancel culture upon non-believers. To shut down and eradicate the Old System.
– Corona is the omnipresent god and sees all. It can get you at home, at work, in the car, in bed, and especially doing fun stuff. (No wonder some other religions ban dancing and frivolity.)
– Non believers and mockers will be stricken with Corona, for they are Sinners.
– You were born sick/sinner. You have no method of proving your health. As a concequence you must attone daily with purification rituals – using Purell, natch.
– You must believe and await the return of your saviour, the vaccine. Beware the false vaccines that are not 100% effective.
– Until that time you must live a pure lifestyle, alone, as in a monastary.
– When in front of your god you must remain reverant, hushed and masked. Do not show ones face, do not question the narrative, or you will be stricken.
– Corona had a virgin birth, got it? Racist.
– Science plays little part in it. The media will ordain the truth.
– Your government and the media are the physical manifestation of the Corona gods. They are the Oracles. Only they can divine the truth and communicate it to you via daily manna sermons – on your personal electronic device.
– At least once daily you should check the Corona numbers and scores. It will give you an idea of how many sinners live among us.
— Gensis: Great reverence is paid to the Flu of 1918. Perhaps spoken about on bended knee. This was 1918 – BCV (Before Corona Virus)
– In the future, all heathens and heretics will be marked by a social justice virtue score. Only those with sufficient virtue, only those which took the communion – the chip, the needle, whatever – will be allowed to gather.
Just raise your arms, wear your Freedom Masks and give thanks. Maybe, one day, far into the future, after all have been cleansed, you might get freedoms back. You must believe in this redemption.
I wish I were joking…
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 651
Likes: 0
From: Hong Kong
Numero Crunchero
I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.
It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.
I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.
It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.
Let's look at the US.
Population 328m - life expectancy 78.4 So, if population was evenly distributed by age, about 4.18 million people die per year. Or in the last 6 months or so, that is just over 2million
The highest co-morbities with covid deaths are Obesity, hypertension and Diabetes.
Almost 40% of adults in the US are obese - that is around 70million of them.
Over 30million US adults have diabetes
Over 100million US adults suffer from hypertension.
In the US from data compiled till mid June(American council on science and health) the mortality rate if infected (IFR) was 0.14% and below, if 64 or younger, and 5.6% if 65 and older.
High risk group is 65 and over
There are at least 54million in this band
25% have diabetes - that is 13.5m
70% have hypertension - that is 37.8m
35% (2010 figures) are obese - that is 18.9m
Life expectancy/mortality rates
65 - 19.4 years/ 5.2%
70 - 15.5 years/ 6.5%
75 - 12 years / 8.3%
80 - 9 / 9.1%
Simple average of those four mortality rates is 7.3%. What that means is that 7.3% of those aged 65-80 die every year. That equates to 3.9million per year - or say 2million since the start of covid.
Total US deaths due to following causes (all ages, not just those over 65)
Obesity 300K (say 150K in last 6 months or so)
Hypertension 472K (around 235K in last 6months)
Diabetes 270K (around 135K in last 6 months)
So a lot of numbers - what does that tell me
Well - we can't add obesity, hypertension and diabetes deaths because presumably many (the majority?) are coincident. So let's just say, in the last 6months, the minimum is 235K (hypertension) and it could be as high as 520K. But maybe the real figure is closer to the hypertension amount of say 235-300K??? Just a guess with no real science behind it.
Now here is the interesting thing - being 65 or over, you have a 7.3% chance of dying in the US this year - based on actuarial tables. But covid mortality, for those over 65 that catch it, was 5.6%. So the mortality rate of covid is LESS than the usual mortality rate for just existing in the US being 65-80.
So no I don't know more than Drs in the world - but 175K deaths when normally the 'co-morbities' of Hypertension, obesity and diabetes cause from 235K-520K deaths in any given six months, doesn't seem like covid is adding to the death toll? Time will tell - when we have data.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 0
Likes: 1
From: Polar Route
Yes, let’s leave it up to the experts and shut up about it. Staying uninformed and without opinion except that the Party line is always best. When in history has that ever gone wrong? Oh wait, pretty much every time. Keep thinking pilots... even if you’re not the “experts”!
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
From: 27N
Your rebuttal to NC really didn't refute anything he put forward, it was simply a parroting of the climate of fear narrative. A sample headline I read from two days ago said "At 34 he shrugged at COVID, then came the coma." Uh-huh. Then you read in the last paragraph that individual had certain underlying conditions and engaged in several high risk behaviours that put him at higher risk. Even his 80 something year old mother (whom he infected) recovered faster. But the headline fits the narrative. As pilots we're taught to think, analyze the data, and make decisions accordingly. The data is there, and NC is very good at analyzing it.
Enjoy your house arrest Exfocx, the next generation is gonna look back at this and wonder what the hell we were thinking.
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 651
Likes: 0
From: Hong Kong
exfocx
Originally Posted by Numero Crunchero View Post
The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.
Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80. So you're going to average out the WHOLE world and treat every situation as one.
I can easily get US data – not the rest. I have read that the average mortality age for covid is very close to life expectancy age for each region. In other words - it kills you when you were statistically going to die from something anyway.
So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me. How many times do you need to hear from the med experts that it's nothing like the flu. Or the damage it's doing to peoples health (heart, lung & brain) who didn't even need a ventilator.
I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu.
The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden. LMFAO, see below. Even the experts who haven't lambasted Sweden have said it'll take yrs to know the answer the Q was the Swedish path correct. How about looking at the US, Italy, Spain, Britain etc.
Years to know the answer? They have had single digit mortality for almost a month now in Sweden. I did an analysis of the US as someone else mentioned that.
Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert). Sweden? Really, what a poor example. Death rate that is 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic counties with NO BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOME!!!!
So are you saying 3- 5.5 times as many people have died in Sweden than normal? Or are you saying that the deaths attributable to covid are 3-5.5times their neighbours? Look at my US analysis – you will see that in the US the total number of covid deaths is well inside the ‘venn’ diagram for deaths due to the prevailing co-morbities. Your assertion implies unique and additional deaths – when in fact they could simply be displacement deaths. Time will tell. Yes Sweden apparently trades – so because every other country has shut down, they have been affected economically.
Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system? Actually as of 2017 they had 22237 beds, declining from 31365 in 2000 (statista.com). By the way, what was the occupancy level prior to CV? How many ICU beds are there and how many ventilators?
Ok Google lied to me – it said they had 24,000 odd a couple of years ago – so you got me – if 10,000 went to hospital, that would have been more than40% not 40% as I quoted – you got me – excellent point! (sarcasm alert)I don’t know how many icu beds and ventilators. I tell you what, why don’t you research it and tell us all how wrong I am – or just guess and pontificate? The latter is probably a lot easier isn’t it.
Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.
Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown. According to the AGE, Vic had 1000 as of late March and had ordered 2000, so I doubt that the rest of the country had another 6,500. Do you think they should wait until they get inundated before buying more, or after seeing what was happening in Med countries they should be a little proactive.
(AFR 14/7) “Behind the scenes, ventilators,like almost all medical supplies, were proving difficult to procure from traditional overseas sources. The government turned to domestic suppliers to procure an additional 7500 units.” (my highlight)
So we were both wrong – whatever they had, they now have 7500 extra( I did read elsewhere (AFR) that it was 10,000 but can't find it now). So did Australia have zero before covid? Maybe 5,000? IDK.
I think it was Resmed who supplied them - in the first three months of this year they produced 55,000 ventilators with the vast majority for export.
If you think having only 7450 spare(+what we had precovid) is a significant and important difference to my original assertion of having 9,950 spare, so be it.
And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%. I would say best leave the stats to the professionals. I doubt your high school maths attempt is really up to it.
Don’t worry, I don’t rely on my high school maths- I use my Finance Grad Dip and my US MBA maths – same maths, more cachet ;-) And I was also pretty god damn good at maths at school, even if I say so myself ;-)
As an aside – using US figures it is 7.3% mortality average for 65 and over – so if you assume those that go into nursing homes are on the ‘less healthy’ side of being alive, then a figure higher than 7.3% would be appropriate – so I am pretty impressed with my 10% guesstimate ;-)
The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.
Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80. So you're going to average out the WHOLE world and treat every situation as one.
I can easily get US data – not the rest. I have read that the average mortality age for covid is very close to life expectancy age for each region. In other words - it kills you when you were statistically going to die from something anyway.
So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me. How many times do you need to hear from the med experts that it's nothing like the flu. Or the damage it's doing to peoples health (heart, lung & brain) who didn't even need a ventilator.
I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu.
The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden. LMFAO, see below. Even the experts who haven't lambasted Sweden have said it'll take yrs to know the answer the Q was the Swedish path correct. How about looking at the US, Italy, Spain, Britain etc.
Years to know the answer? They have had single digit mortality for almost a month now in Sweden. I did an analysis of the US as someone else mentioned that.
Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert). Sweden? Really, what a poor example. Death rate that is 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic counties with NO BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOME!!!!
So are you saying 3- 5.5 times as many people have died in Sweden than normal? Or are you saying that the deaths attributable to covid are 3-5.5times their neighbours? Look at my US analysis – you will see that in the US the total number of covid deaths is well inside the ‘venn’ diagram for deaths due to the prevailing co-morbities. Your assertion implies unique and additional deaths – when in fact they could simply be displacement deaths. Time will tell. Yes Sweden apparently trades – so because every other country has shut down, they have been affected economically.
Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system? Actually as of 2017 they had 22237 beds, declining from 31365 in 2000 (statista.com). By the way, what was the occupancy level prior to CV? How many ICU beds are there and how many ventilators?
Ok Google lied to me – it said they had 24,000 odd a couple of years ago – so you got me – if 10,000 went to hospital, that would have been more than40% not 40% as I quoted – you got me – excellent point! (sarcasm alert)I don’t know how many icu beds and ventilators. I tell you what, why don’t you research it and tell us all how wrong I am – or just guess and pontificate? The latter is probably a lot easier isn’t it.
Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.
Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown. According to the AGE, Vic had 1000 as of late March and had ordered 2000, so I doubt that the rest of the country had another 6,500. Do you think they should wait until they get inundated before buying more, or after seeing what was happening in Med countries they should be a little proactive.
(AFR 14/7) “Behind the scenes, ventilators,like almost all medical supplies, were proving difficult to procure from traditional overseas sources. The government turned to domestic suppliers to procure an additional 7500 units.” (my highlight)
So we were both wrong – whatever they had, they now have 7500 extra( I did read elsewhere (AFR) that it was 10,000 but can't find it now). So did Australia have zero before covid? Maybe 5,000? IDK.
I think it was Resmed who supplied them - in the first three months of this year they produced 55,000 ventilators with the vast majority for export.
If you think having only 7450 spare(+what we had precovid) is a significant and important difference to my original assertion of having 9,950 spare, so be it.
And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%. I would say best leave the stats to the professionals. I doubt your high school maths attempt is really up to it.
Don’t worry, I don’t rely on my high school maths- I use my Finance Grad Dip and my US MBA maths – same maths, more cachet ;-) And I was also pretty god damn good at maths at school, even if I say so myself ;-)
As an aside – using US figures it is 7.3% mortality average for 65 and over – so if you assume those that go into nursing homes are on the ‘less healthy’ side of being alive, then a figure higher than 7.3% would be appropriate – so I am pretty impressed with my 10% guesstimate ;-)
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 198
Likes: 2
From: Hotel
It's simple boys. The politicians massively overreacted based on bad science and a snowball effect. Wuhan locked down because at that point right at the beginning they didn't know how serious and dangerous this virus may be. Which in a way is actually a credit to them.
Unfortunately then the next stop was Bergamo/ Northern Italy - practically the old age home of Europe - so plenty old folks get infected and die and the whole thing looks super dangerous and snowballs from there. Politicians panic since they figure they won't get re elected if granny dies and thus they blindly follow the example of Wuhan and Italy and the rest is history....
I am willing to bet the cx half of my provident fund that in the next few months we will get the data to prove that this was the over reaction of the century by elected idiots, compromised government funded scientists and histerical media. All combined to lead to the ultimate demonstration of the idiocy of crowds in this era of Facebook and fake news.
And all of this makes no difference to the fact that most of the planet will be back in business once the penny drops while HKG is still locked down and taxi drivers here still pump their accelerators like mad to an empty airport of cluelessness and despair.
Unfortunately then the next stop was Bergamo/ Northern Italy - practically the old age home of Europe - so plenty old folks get infected and die and the whole thing looks super dangerous and snowballs from there. Politicians panic since they figure they won't get re elected if granny dies and thus they blindly follow the example of Wuhan and Italy and the rest is history....
I am willing to bet the cx half of my provident fund that in the next few months we will get the data to prove that this was the over reaction of the century by elected idiots, compromised government funded scientists and histerical media. All combined to lead to the ultimate demonstration of the idiocy of crowds in this era of Facebook and fake news.
And all of this makes no difference to the fact that most of the planet will be back in business once the penny drops while HKG is still locked down and taxi drivers here still pump their accelerators like mad to an empty airport of cluelessness and despair.
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 236
Likes: 146
From: Uk
So simple isn’t it missingblade. Yet the most eminent epidemiologists around the globe are struggling to understand how this virus behaves and what long term damage it will have for sufferers. Experts in pandemic control with years in the field are struggling to know what sort of NPI’s are appropriate at any given time, yet you and the likes of Numero Crunchero and mngmt mole seem to be absolutely clear with your understanding with what should or shouldn’t have been done. Could you enlighten us as to why we should believe your solutions as opposed to the vast weight of expert opinion around the world?
Oh and Numero Crunchero, could you give me the reference that leads you to believe that Spanish Flu was a Coronavirus and not influenza.
You said this.....
...’I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu’
Oh and Numero Crunchero, could you give me the reference that leads you to believe that Spanish Flu was a Coronavirus and not influenza.
You said this.....
...’I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu’