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Airlines Going Under

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Airlines Going Under

Old 28th Apr 2020, 14:18
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Did you know a corona virus has never had an effective vaccine? Think SARS, whereís the vaccine?

To the point, a vaccine is likely not forthcoming. So what to do? Well, thereís only one thing to do... Herd Immunity, unless you consider shutting the world economy down long term to protect the oldies and vulnerables is an option.

In my opinion, this shutdown has been overcooked. Have we flattened the curve? Yes. Have we kept the health care system from being overrun? For sure. Have we destroyed the economy? Indeed! Have we stunted herd immunity? I argue yes.

What does this mean? It means that a second wave, likely in the fall (and possibly third wave in 2021), could well be proportionally worse. It will be very interesting to see how Sweden and other locations with lesser restrictions do by comparison. I think the world is about to get a huge lesson in epidemiology.

This virus is going to take its toll. The only question is where and when? Sweden is paying the piper up front. Will it pay off in the future? I believe it will. I especially admire their political courage to do what they have done in the face of a global shutdown. They havenít succumbed to peer pressure and virtue signaling.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 20:19
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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Ya know, there's not this magical money Tree O' Health care in much of the world. There are places when the loss of a job may well mean your access to medical care just got a great deal worse than it was. So when you target fixate on ONE disease (which is in general really contagious, and really dangerous for a certain fraction of the population but relatively benign towards others) -- at the expense of everything else -- you kill people.

It's not like all the other diseases go away.

In the US, they've emptied out hospitals and literally banned 'elective' surgeries and preventative medicine to make room for COV patients who'll never show up. So what happens to these folks who now have their care at best pushed to the right several months ? Who otherwise might have had access to potentially life saving preventatives and diagnostics ? And to the laid off medical staff who now needs to regen to get back to work. While a doctor given a diagnosis can probably use his expertise to determine if care is essential at the time, it's impossible to look in from the outside with a broadband ban saying that some things are essential and these other things are not. Especially when driven by politicians and bureaucrats. So that preventative or elective might well be essential in reality; perhaps preventing a heart attack, embolism, or other serious condition from claiming a life.

I can see perhaps an ortho surgeon deciding for himself if it's in his (the doctors') best interest to be operating during a pandemic. But not some idiot in a tie making that decision for him.

So we are effectively killing people when we knee-jerk and overreact to one specific disease like this at the expense of everything else.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 21:10
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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Well gents, itís going to be interesting thatís for sure. I hope people have something saved up because we seem to be heading for the catastrophe of a lifetime. LongTimeInCX has a solution that calls for the survival of the fittest, in the end if they donít find a vaccine soon enough we will see that scenario play out. I donít know whatís wise, I like my parents and would like to avoid rolling the dice with this one myself if I donít absolutely have to.

However, I do not worry. We as a species are pretty resilient. We have survived wars, genocides, great leaps forward, ethnic and religious persecution, disease, famine and other catastrophes and as a species we will survive this one. Whether we do so with dignity will be up to each individual to decide for themselves.

Letís wait and see what the managers come up with to try and get the group to survive this. In the end thatís critically important for all of us. If they can survive, it means we can all come back at some point after a period of furlough for a segment of the employees. If they do not survive, some of us may never work in a flight deck again. It is what it is.

I guess this is what they mean when they say ďinteresting timesĒ.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 02:07
  #64 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2019
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I will just leave this here ....

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south...s-heading-mass

maybe we should all stick to aviating and leave politics and medical opinions to people that work in those fields.

But I do agree we all need savings now and minimum debt ;-)
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 04:57
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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Comments from another website:

My employer mentioned last week that all 27k UK employees will remain work from home for a considerable time partly due to finding out the business operates just as well when home based, there are also rumours that the majority of the 16k located in London will be offered home working permanently and the company will offload several large properties. It would not be surprising to see the majority of companies doing the same in order to remove the costly real estate burden now that they have successfully experienced lengthy working from home. My employer also announced zero travel and complete change around travel in the future stating video conference will be the go to option.

This is the problem we now face...
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 05:29
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mngmt mole View Post
Comments from another website:

My employer mentioned last week that all 27k UK employees will remain work from home for a considerable time partly due to finding out the business operates just as well when home based, there are also rumours that the majority of the 16k located in London will be offered home working permanently and the company will offload several large properties. It would not be surprising to see the majority of companies doing the same in order to remove the costly real estate burden now that they have successfully experienced lengthy working from home. My employer also announced zero travel and complete change around travel in the future stating video conference will be the go to option.

This is the problem we now face...
A world leading German Chemical company has calculated that it has saved USD24 million in office heating bills alone worldwide since this outbreak. Air Con and rents yet to be calculated but the savings are significant and permanent home working is now a real prospect for large percentages of former office workers. London office property companies seeing their share values plummet . In Hong Kong Central office space asking rents dropped 62% in March.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 05:51
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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Meanwhile, getting back to the title of this thread “Airlines Going Under” BA just announced plans to make 12000 employees redundant.
BA employs 45000 of which 4500 pilots, 16000 cabin crew,
I wonder if CX will follow that trend.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 06:26
  #68 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1998
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No. CX will keep filling new courses weekly with cadets. Makes perfect sense. Don't worry though, the currently employed workforce will dilute their earnings to pay for them
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Old 4th May 2020, 02:50
  #69 (permalink)  
hyg
 
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Originally Posted by mngmt mole View Post
Comments from another website:

My employer mentioned last week that all 27k UK employees will remain work from home for a considerable time partly due to finding out the business operates just as well when home based, there are also rumours that the majority of the 16k located in London will be offered home working permanently and the company will offload several large properties. It would not be surprising to see the majority of companies doing the same in order to remove the costly real estate burden now that they have successfully experienced lengthy working from home. My employer also announced zero travel and complete change around travel in the future stating video conference will be the go to option.

This is the problem we now face...
Not just in UK, Australia is the same.... my sister told me their CEO said last week in an email, people who were all sitting in the offices tgt before the virus may never sit in the same offices with each other again. Even when ppl can go back to work, they might just run a team A and B rotation for hot desks at the office. As you said, apparently lots of businesses have realised that they can have ppl working from home, saving office rental costs etc while still actually run to a rather regular standard.

It's always the case when business management was forced to take drastic measures and realise 'oh wait, this works and cost less money?? WOW' then it would never go back to the old way that cost money....
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Old 4th May 2020, 07:20
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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Many people who now think working from home is a viable option long term will be surprised when demand actually returns to normal. It's easy to work from home with very little to do.
I read somewhere today that only about 15% of people have jobs that are possible to do at home. How effective that 15% will be at home is another matter.

A previous employer of mine banned working from home all together.
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Old 4th May 2020, 15:16
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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The current social science says most people working from home arenít very productive. There are exceptions of course, but I donít think most employers are willing to go down that route long term unless very strict measures of performance are possible. Also, online communications are often deceptive. Without in person body language, itís tough to know if perceived truth is real or not.
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Old 4th May 2020, 16:40
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=cxorcist;10772331]The current social science says most people working from home arenít very productive. There are exceptions of course, but I donít think most employers are willing to go down that route long term unless very strict measures of performance are possible. Also, online communications are often deceptive. Without in person body language, itís tough to know if perceived truth is real or not.[/QUOTE

BS:
https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/15...roductive.html

My friends say the same. That is of course if you don't have little kids running around.
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Old 4th May 2020, 17:52
  #73 (permalink)  
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Home Working

Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
The current social science says most people working from home arenít very productive. There are exceptions of course, but I donít think most employers are willing to go down that route long term unless very strict measures of performance are possible. Also, online communications are often deceptive. Without in person body language, itís tough to know if perceived truth is real or not.
This has been tried extensively years back and, for the most part, failed on productivity performance.. Some will say the companies didn't have the correct technology and they will be wrong.. It was silicone valley who was first, the inventors of the technologies, and the effort did not last long.. Other than "coders" (who work 100% by the piece) you see large tech companies continue to buy/build/rent massive campuses worldwide and there's a reason ( e.g. Apple)..

As an aside, The US Dow is tanking at this very moment due to a annual Corporate Shareholder Meeting by Berkshire Hathaway (i.e Warren Buffet).. Literally everyone in the world listens to this guy and react to his moves. His big move today - selling his entire holdings in the 4 largest US Airlines and, after being pressed on this, indicated that getting into this sector in the future - share purchasers should use extreme caution (caveat emptor) !!!
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Old 4th May 2020, 18:17
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Tommy Gavin;10772408]
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
The current social science says most people working from home arenít very productive. There are exceptions of course, but I donít think most employers are willing to go down that route long term unless very strict measures of performance are possible. Also, online communications are often deceptive. Without in person body language, itís tough to know if perceived truth is real or not.[/QUOTE

BS:
https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/15...roductive.html

My friends say the same. That is of course if you don't have little kids running around.
So you think one article and/or study makes it so?

Seems a bit flimsy to me. Fake news/study?
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Old 4th May 2020, 18:25
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=cxorcist;10772497]
Originally Posted by Tommy Gavin View Post

So you think one article and/or study makes it so?

Seems a bit flimsy to me.
At least I refer to one.
But if you've ever worked in an office environment you know there is way too much distraction which isn't at home provided the little ones are at school.

Maybe not 5 days per week but 2 or 3 are entirely possible. However face to face contact will always be important. Having said this I dare to say that at least 20 percent of business trips are unnecessary and an excuse to go on the piss in a different city / country.
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Old 4th May 2020, 18:33
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Tommy Gavin;10772504]
Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post

At least I refer to one.
But if you've ever worked in an office environment you know there is way too much distraction which isn't at home provided the little ones are at school.

Maybe not 5 days per week but 2 or 3 are entirely possible. However face to face contact will always be important. Having said this I dare to say that at least 20 percent of business trips are unnecessary and an excuse to go on the piss in a different city / country.
So, if I google an article and/or study and post it here, it gives me more credibility? Wow, who knew the Internet was so devoid of garbage?

How about the value of human interaction, synergy, working groups, sharing, learning, etc? All that can and should be done online now? So all these modern tech companies with their big campuses and open work spaces are wrong? Businesses have been spending all this money, all these years for no good reason. Who knew?

To me, you sound like a gullible, new age youngster thinking we should recreate the wheel because, all of a sudden, your much smarter generation has it all figured out. Please!
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Old 4th May 2020, 18:39
  #77 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
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[QUOTE=cxorcist;10772516]
Originally Posted by Tommy Gavin View Post
So, if I google an article and/or study and post it here, it gives me more credibility? Wow, who knew the Internet was so devoid of garbage?

How about the value of human interaction, synergy, working groups, sharing, learning, etc? All that can and should be done online now? So all these modern tech companies with their big campuses and open work spaces are wrong? Businesses have been spending all this money, all these years for no good reason. Who knew?

To me, you sound like a gullible, new age youngster thinking we should recreate the wheel because, all of a sudden, your much smarter generation has it all figured out. Please!
To me, you sound like an arrogant, reminescent old age alcoholic who thinks his way is the only way. Please!

Now if you've actually read what I wrote you realise I actually value human interaction.
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Old 4th May 2020, 19:19
  #78 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
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Apparently I touched a nerve with cxorcist... #snowflake
Private message. I rest my case

Mommaís Boy
From cxorcist 4th May 2020 20:02
[QUOTE=Tommy Gavin;10772521]
Quote:
Originally Posted by cxorcist
To me, you sound like an arrogant, reminescent old age alcoholic who thinks his way is the only way. Please!

Now if you've actually read what I wrote you realise I actually value human interaction.

Alcoholic? You got that from my post. Good one Sherlock.

How about keeping your fake news and bad science in your overpriced universities where all the academics tell each other how smart they are and then use their friends in the media to reinforce their inflated self worth. Meanwhile, the ďreminiscent, old age alcoholicsĒ will keep you safe, fed, and pampered. ****!
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Old 4th May 2020, 20:25
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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... and hereís a post from Dearest Gavin:

ďWhilst we are saving money. Is the Captain really necessary?Ē

Now we know...
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Old 5th May 2020, 01:03
  #80 (permalink)  
 
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Talking

Tommy I love this quote from the article.

"Office workers spent an average of 66 minutes per day discussing nonwork topics, while remote employees only spent 29 minutes doing the same. Managers were found to be particularly distracting, as they were found to spend nearly 70 minutes talking about nonwork topics compared to the 38 minutes spent on average by nonmanagers.

You don't need to see the source research to agree to the second sentence. I would guess every non manager worker in the world has experienced it at some time ;-)
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