Airlines Going Under
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
From: HK
Sorry but I think you've confused what's happening today as just part of the "business cycle".
From RD https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...t-and-history/ :
Think of the central bank as having a bottle of stimulant that they can inject into the economy as needed with the amount of stimulant in the bottle being limited. When the markets and the economy sag they give them shots of the money and credit stimulant to pick them up, and when they’re too hot they give them less stimulant. These moves lead to cyclical rises and declines in the amounts and prices of money and credit, and goods, services, and financial assets. These moves typically come in the form of short-term debt cycles and long-term debt cycles. The short-term cycles of ups and downs typically last about eight years, give or take a few. The timing is determined by the amount of time it takes the stimulant to raise demand to the point that it reaches the limits of the real economy’s capacity to produce. Most people have seen enough of these short-term debt cycles to know what they are like—so much so that they mistakenly think that they will go on working this way forever. They’re most popularly called “the business cycle,” though I call them “the short-term debt cycle” to distinguish them from “the long-term debt cycle.”Over long periods of time these short-term debt cycles add up to long-term debt cycles that typically last about 50 to 75 years.[2]Because they come along about once in a lifeti me most people aren’t aware of them; as a result they typically take people by surprise, which hurts a lot of people. The last big long-term debt cycle, which is the one that we are now in, was designed in 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and was put in place in 1945 when World War II ended and we began the dollar/US-dominated world order.
From RD https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...t-and-history/ :
Think of the central bank as having a bottle of stimulant that they can inject into the economy as needed with the amount of stimulant in the bottle being limited. When the markets and the economy sag they give them shots of the money and credit stimulant to pick them up, and when they’re too hot they give them less stimulant. These moves lead to cyclical rises and declines in the amounts and prices of money and credit, and goods, services, and financial assets. These moves typically come in the form of short-term debt cycles and long-term debt cycles. The short-term cycles of ups and downs typically last about eight years, give or take a few. The timing is determined by the amount of time it takes the stimulant to raise demand to the point that it reaches the limits of the real economy’s capacity to produce. Most people have seen enough of these short-term debt cycles to know what they are like—so much so that they mistakenly think that they will go on working this way forever. They’re most popularly called “the business cycle,” though I call them “the short-term debt cycle” to distinguish them from “the long-term debt cycle.”Over long periods of time these short-term debt cycles add up to long-term debt cycles that typically last about 50 to 75 years.[2]Because they come along about once in a lifeti me most people aren’t aware of them; as a result they typically take people by surprise, which hurts a lot of people. The last big long-term debt cycle, which is the one that we are now in, was designed in 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and was put in place in 1945 when World War II ended and we began the dollar/US-dominated world order.
The point I've been trying to make is that no one knows for sure what the recovery will look like, especially not over a 15 year timescale.
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 300
Likes: 39
From: NQLD
A few facts from history
I don’t agree with the OP’s 15 year timeline, nothing in history has resulted in a downturn that long. No disease outbreak in the last +300 years has lasted that long either.
But this won’t be a ‘quick V shaped recovery’ either. Anyone that is expecting that, eg loading up on debt to keep maintaining their lifestyle until it all recovers, is absolutely bonkers!!!
Even IATA predictions show a V shape recovery taking until 2022. Every other forecast they have is longer, 2024 and onwards.
9/11 resulted in a 30% drop in domestic USA traffic. It took 3 years to recover to the same point and by then the industry was more efficient.
SARS was isolated to SE Asia so can’t really be used as an example.
The Great Depression provides an economic example for what happens when governments don’t intervene like they do now (quantitative easing etc). Again the airline industry was tiny back then so comparisons are useless.
Another interesting statistic, there is a measurable link to household savings versus stock market returns. Basically as the stock market declines the household saving rate goes up. In the GFC with a 40% decline household savings increased from 2% -> 8/10% of income. What this tells us is that the average household may still go to Ibiza/Caribbean/Bali/etc but they aren’t going to go every year or may aim for a cheaper destination.
Travel restrictions on international travel will remain probably throughout 2020. China has had another outbreak in the city of Hubei, placing another 10 million people on lockdown. Individual countries may get it under control and allow domestic travel, but if ticket prices are higher, more people will drive instead of flying. Exactly like they used to when airfares were more expensive.
So given all the above I’ll add my 2 cents and make a prediction but only basing it on the above points.
- more airlines will go broke, even into 2021. This will be because demand won’t recover quickly and those airlines with plenty of cash but slow to react management will find themselves in dire straits when demand doesn’t come back soon enough.
- travel demand will reduce. I’m guessing the first full year of no restrictions will be in the order of 30-40% reduction on 2019 figures.
- I don’t think our first full year of no restrictions will start until mid 2021 at the earliest. So until then demand will be ‘must travel’ with mandatory quarantine at the other end for international.
- job losses will continue throughout the year in ALL industries. While companies may not go bankrupt they’ll be trimming the fat so to speak and making their operations more efficient.
- with all the uncertainty in the economy households will save more money and be careful where they spend it. This will continue through 2020 and will be a dampening effect on any economic recovery despite government intervention.
What would I do? No idea. Hang on to my job and hope for the best at this stage. But if I was made redundant I’d most likely change industries and go in a different direction.
History has pretty much all the answers you’ll ever need. It may not have happened exactly like this before, but there will always be enough examples (of many things) to put together your own jigsaw puzzle and guess at least the direction things might go.
Good luck to everyone!!
But this won’t be a ‘quick V shaped recovery’ either. Anyone that is expecting that, eg loading up on debt to keep maintaining their lifestyle until it all recovers, is absolutely bonkers!!!
Even IATA predictions show a V shape recovery taking until 2022. Every other forecast they have is longer, 2024 and onwards.
9/11 resulted in a 30% drop in domestic USA traffic. It took 3 years to recover to the same point and by then the industry was more efficient.
SARS was isolated to SE Asia so can’t really be used as an example.
The Great Depression provides an economic example for what happens when governments don’t intervene like they do now (quantitative easing etc). Again the airline industry was tiny back then so comparisons are useless.
Another interesting statistic, there is a measurable link to household savings versus stock market returns. Basically as the stock market declines the household saving rate goes up. In the GFC with a 40% decline household savings increased from 2% -> 8/10% of income. What this tells us is that the average household may still go to Ibiza/Caribbean/Bali/etc but they aren’t going to go every year or may aim for a cheaper destination.
Travel restrictions on international travel will remain probably throughout 2020. China has had another outbreak in the city of Hubei, placing another 10 million people on lockdown. Individual countries may get it under control and allow domestic travel, but if ticket prices are higher, more people will drive instead of flying. Exactly like they used to when airfares were more expensive.
So given all the above I’ll add my 2 cents and make a prediction but only basing it on the above points.
- more airlines will go broke, even into 2021. This will be because demand won’t recover quickly and those airlines with plenty of cash but slow to react management will find themselves in dire straits when demand doesn’t come back soon enough.
- travel demand will reduce. I’m guessing the first full year of no restrictions will be in the order of 30-40% reduction on 2019 figures.
- I don’t think our first full year of no restrictions will start until mid 2021 at the earliest. So until then demand will be ‘must travel’ with mandatory quarantine at the other end for international.
- job losses will continue throughout the year in ALL industries. While companies may not go bankrupt they’ll be trimming the fat so to speak and making their operations more efficient.
- with all the uncertainty in the economy households will save more money and be careful where they spend it. This will continue through 2020 and will be a dampening effect on any economic recovery despite government intervention.
What would I do? No idea. Hang on to my job and hope for the best at this stage. But if I was made redundant I’d most likely change industries and go in a different direction.
History has pretty much all the answers you’ll ever need. It may not have happened exactly like this before, but there will always be enough examples (of many things) to put together your own jigsaw puzzle and guess at least the direction things might go.
Good luck to everyone!!
Last edited by aviation_enthus; 27th April 2020 at 17:04.
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
From: HK
I don’t agree with the OP’s 15 year timeline, nothing in history has resulted in a downturn that long. No disease outbreak in the last +300 years has lasted that long either.
But this won’t be a ‘quick V shaped recovery’ either. Anyone that is expecting that, eg loading up on debt to keep maintaining their lifestyle until it all recovers, is absolutely bonkers!!!
Even IATA predictions show a V shape recovery taking until 2022. Every other forecast they have is longer, 2024 and onwards.
9/11 resulted in a 30% drop in domestic USA traffic. It took 3 years to recover to the same point and by then the industry was more efficient.
SARS was isolated to SE Asia so can’t really be used as an example.
The Great Depression provides an economic example for what happens when governments don’t intervene like they do now (quantitative easing etc). Again the airline industry was tiny back then so comparisons are useless.
Another interesting statistic, there is a measurable link to household savings versus stock market returns. Basically as the stock market declines the household saving rate goes up. In the GFC with a 40% decline household savings increased from 2% -> 8/10% of income. What this tells us is that the average household may still go to Ibiza/Caribbean/Bali/etc but they aren’t going to go every year or may aim for a cheaper destination.
Travel restrictions on international travel will remain probably throughout 2020. China has had another outbreak in the city of Hubei, placing another 10 million people on lockdown. Individual countries may get it under control and allow domestic travel, but if ticket prices are higher, more people will drive instead of flying. Exactly like they used to when airfares were more expensive.
So given all the above I’ll add my 2 cents and make a prediction but only basing it on the above points.
- more airlines will go broke, even into 2021. This will be because demand won’t recover quickly and those airlines with plenty of cash but slow to react management will find themselves in dire straits when demand doesn’t come back soon enough.
- travel demand will reduce. I’m guessing the first full year of no restrictions will be in the order of 30-40% reduction on 2019 figures.
- I don’t think our first full year of no restrictions will start until mid 2021 at the earliest. So until then demand will be ‘must travel’ with mandatory quarantine at the other end for international.
- job losses will continue throughout the year in ALL industries. While companies may not go bankrupt they’ll be trimming the fat so to speak and making their operations more efficient.
- with all the uncertainty in the economy households will save more money and be careful where they spend it. This will continue through 2020 and will be a dampening effect on any economic recovery despite government intervention.
What would I do? No idea. Hang on to my job and hope for the best at this stage. But if I was made redundant I’d most likely change industries and go in a different direction.
History has pretty much all the answers you’ll ever need. It may not have happened exactly like this before, but there will always be enough examples (of many things) to put together your own jigsaw puzzle and guess at least the direction things might go.
Good luck to everyone!!
But this won’t be a ‘quick V shaped recovery’ either. Anyone that is expecting that, eg loading up on debt to keep maintaining their lifestyle until it all recovers, is absolutely bonkers!!!
Even IATA predictions show a V shape recovery taking until 2022. Every other forecast they have is longer, 2024 and onwards.
9/11 resulted in a 30% drop in domestic USA traffic. It took 3 years to recover to the same point and by then the industry was more efficient.
SARS was isolated to SE Asia so can’t really be used as an example.
The Great Depression provides an economic example for what happens when governments don’t intervene like they do now (quantitative easing etc). Again the airline industry was tiny back then so comparisons are useless.
Another interesting statistic, there is a measurable link to household savings versus stock market returns. Basically as the stock market declines the household saving rate goes up. In the GFC with a 40% decline household savings increased from 2% -> 8/10% of income. What this tells us is that the average household may still go to Ibiza/Caribbean/Bali/etc but they aren’t going to go every year or may aim for a cheaper destination.
Travel restrictions on international travel will remain probably throughout 2020. China has had another outbreak in the city of Hubei, placing another 10 million people on lockdown. Individual countries may get it under control and allow domestic travel, but if ticket prices are higher, more people will drive instead of flying. Exactly like they used to when airfares were more expensive.
So given all the above I’ll add my 2 cents and make a prediction but only basing it on the above points.
- more airlines will go broke, even into 2021. This will be because demand won’t recover quickly and those airlines with plenty of cash but slow to react management will find themselves in dire straits when demand doesn’t come back soon enough.
- travel demand will reduce. I’m guessing the first full year of no restrictions will be in the order of 30-40% reduction on 2019 figures.
- I don’t think our first full year of no restrictions will start until mid 2021 at the earliest. So until then demand will be ‘must travel’ with mandatory quarantine at the other end for international.
- job losses will continue throughout the year in ALL industries. While companies may not go bankrupt they’ll be trimming the fat so to speak and making their operations more efficient.
- with all the uncertainty in the economy households will save more money and be careful where they spend it. This will continue through 2020 and will be a dampening effect on any economic recovery despite government intervention.
What would I do? No idea. Hang on to my job and hope for the best at this stage. But if I was made redundant I’d most likely change industries and go in a different direction.
History has pretty much all the answers you’ll ever need. It may not have happened exactly like this before, but there will always be enough examples (of many things) to put together your own jigsaw puzzle and guess at least the direction things might go.
Good luck to everyone!!
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 267
Likes: 0
From: All over
I don’t agree with the OP’s 15 year timeline, nothing in history has resulted in a downturn that long. No disease outbreak in the last +300 years has lasted that long either.
But this won’t be a ‘quick V shaped recovery’ either. Anyone that is expecting that, eg loading up on debt to keep maintaining their lifestyle until it all recovers, is absolutely bonkers!!!
Even IATA predictions show a V shape recovery taking until 2022. Every other forecast they have is longer, 2024 and onwards.
9/11 resulted in a 30% drop in domestic USA traffic. It took 3 years to recover to the same point and by then the industry was more efficient.
SARS was isolated to SE Asia so can’t really be used as an example.
The Great Depression provides an economic example for what happens when governments don’t intervene like they do now (quantitative easing etc). Again the airline industry was tiny back then so comparisons are useless.
Another interesting statistic, there is a measurable link to household savings versus stock market returns. Basically as the stock market declines the household saving rate goes up. In the GFC with a 40% decline household savings increased from 2% -> 8/10% of income. What this tells us is that the average household may still go to Ibiza/Caribbean/Bali/etc but they aren’t going to go every year or may aim for a cheaper destination.
Travel restrictions on international travel will remain probably throughout 2020. China has had another outbreak in the city of Hubei, placing another 10 million people on lockdown. Individual countries may get it under control and allow domestic travel, but if ticket prices are higher, more people will drive instead of flying. Exactly like they used to when airfares were more expensive.
So given all the above I’ll add my 2 cents and make a prediction but only basing it on the above points.
- more airlines will go broke, even into 2021. This will be because demand won’t recover quickly and those airlines with plenty of cash but slow to react management will find themselves in dire straits when demand doesn’t come back soon enough.
- travel demand will reduce. I’m guessing the first full year of no restrictions will be in the order of 30-40% reduction on 2019 figures.
- I don’t think our first full year of no restrictions will start until mid 2021 at the earliest. So until then demand will be ‘must travel’ with mandatory quarantine at the other end for international.
- job losses will continue throughout the year in ALL industries. While companies may not go bankrupt they’ll be trimming the fat so to speak and making their operations more efficient.
- with all the uncertainty in the economy households will save more money and be careful where they spend it. This will continue through 2020 and will be a dampening effect on any economic recovery despite government intervention.
What would I do? No idea. Hang on to my job and hope for the best at this stage. But if I was made redundant I’d most likely change industries and go in a different direction.
History has pretty much all the answers you’ll ever need. It may not have happened exactly like this before, but there will always be enough examples (of many things) to put together your own jigsaw puzzle and guess at least the direction things might go.
Good luck to everyone!!
But this won’t be a ‘quick V shaped recovery’ either. Anyone that is expecting that, eg loading up on debt to keep maintaining their lifestyle until it all recovers, is absolutely bonkers!!!
Even IATA predictions show a V shape recovery taking until 2022. Every other forecast they have is longer, 2024 and onwards.
9/11 resulted in a 30% drop in domestic USA traffic. It took 3 years to recover to the same point and by then the industry was more efficient.
SARS was isolated to SE Asia so can’t really be used as an example.
The Great Depression provides an economic example for what happens when governments don’t intervene like they do now (quantitative easing etc). Again the airline industry was tiny back then so comparisons are useless.
Another interesting statistic, there is a measurable link to household savings versus stock market returns. Basically as the stock market declines the household saving rate goes up. In the GFC with a 40% decline household savings increased from 2% -> 8/10% of income. What this tells us is that the average household may still go to Ibiza/Caribbean/Bali/etc but they aren’t going to go every year or may aim for a cheaper destination.
Travel restrictions on international travel will remain probably throughout 2020. China has had another outbreak in the city of Hubei, placing another 10 million people on lockdown. Individual countries may get it under control and allow domestic travel, but if ticket prices are higher, more people will drive instead of flying. Exactly like they used to when airfares were more expensive.
So given all the above I’ll add my 2 cents and make a prediction but only basing it on the above points.
- more airlines will go broke, even into 2021. This will be because demand won’t recover quickly and those airlines with plenty of cash but slow to react management will find themselves in dire straits when demand doesn’t come back soon enough.
- travel demand will reduce. I’m guessing the first full year of no restrictions will be in the order of 30-40% reduction on 2019 figures.
- I don’t think our first full year of no restrictions will start until mid 2021 at the earliest. So until then demand will be ‘must travel’ with mandatory quarantine at the other end for international.
- job losses will continue throughout the year in ALL industries. While companies may not go bankrupt they’ll be trimming the fat so to speak and making their operations more efficient.
- with all the uncertainty in the economy households will save more money and be careful where they spend it. This will continue through 2020 and will be a dampening effect on any economic recovery despite government intervention.
What would I do? No idea. Hang on to my job and hope for the best at this stage. But if I was made redundant I’d most likely change industries and go in a different direction.
History has pretty much all the answers you’ll ever need. It may not have happened exactly like this before, but there will always be enough examples (of many things) to put together your own jigsaw puzzle and guess at least the direction things might go.
Good luck to everyone!!
Keynesian economics ('pump priming' -- done both by Hoover and Roosevelt) is really tricky and never has been done well (problem being the core assumption is you get something for nothing which is never true). In the case of the US, combined with an ill timed trade war (not dissimilar to the oil shenanigans) it had the net effect of pulling the US from a very bad recession into a very deep depression. While there is some argument for maintaining stability of a money supply (i.e. either liquidity via credit or real money value--in the incipient stages deflation is the biggest threat followed by hyperinflation depending on the currency authorities skill and luck. Not unlike pouring gasoline onto some smoldering embers and trying to control the fire when it relights) -- preserving its value from deflation as well as inflation. But the raw pork contained in most governments stimuli simply result in most of that money blown on hats and jets for corporate big wigs and pet projects. With a 'tip' making it down to the general population. It has been a path to ruin in the past with a government loosing control of a fiat monetary system. During the 2008 event it later resulted in controllable but significant loss of dollar value and real inflation over several years (which was eventually stabilized). In that case though the assets were backed by at least SOMETHING -- overvalued paper -- but something of value. In this case not so much. And for borrowing everyone owes everyone else so there's this rolling huge sea of debt. Which eventually finds its way to the backs of folks who do real work (i.e. the traveling public many of whom are unemployed and trying simply to eat).
There's really nowhere to hide. Cash savings gets devalued by downline inflation; investments are wholly unstable and unpredictable as are commodities and everything else. Real estate and tangibles can hold value but get eaten into due to loss of demand and increasing carrying costs (maintenance and taxes which are indexed to inflation). So (IMHO) it's not possible to try to outguess this. What to do ? Nothing -- and keep on keeping on; enjoying life in the process. The thing I would NOT do is hole up wasting the days of ones' life.
Given that governments are taking on massive debts, I can't see how individuals should be expected to behave any differently. But I can't see a boom in discretionary travel (especially given the virus hoo-haw and incoherent continuing quarantine procedures across borders) being a part of that. It wouldn't be on the top of my bucket list to get on either cruise ships or airplanes. Additionally, with all the BS accompanying 'restarting' economies that never should have been shut down from above in the first place (and politicians saving face for destroying their economy over a flu) lots of inefficiencies will be introduced into otherwise productive economies. So I don't see the 'relight with a vengeance' as happening and REALLY don't see the average Joe or Jane beating down the door for vacations somewhere exotic. Especially after spending some time in their own backyard and perhaps figuring out their own backyard (and some places not all that far from it) is a pretty nice place to be.
Last edited by Slasher1; 27th April 2020 at 15:25.
Joined: Jun 2008
Aviation Qualifications: PPL
Posts: 8
Likes: 4
From: Outer space
What on earth are you basing your numbers on? Post 2008 the markets went on the longest bull run in history. This pandemic has been a black swan event for the world economy because we were woefully underprepared for it, however just like the crash of 2008 this too will pass.
As long as there is no cure for the root of all this evilness, traveling around the world will remain a risk and thus limited. While the recovery potential is definitely there, many states won't allow unlimited global travel for a while, at least a year is a good guess, maybe even longer.
I certainly don't have the answers but I am certainly more optimistic of a medium term recovery, trying to predict 15 years out from now is insanity. The vacuum created by the airlines that have gone bust will be filled by new airlines or expanding surviving airlines.
No matter how you view it, it's a major disaster and the airline industry is probably hurt much more than any other business branch except maybe general tourism.
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 748
Likes: 0
From: HK-CRoC
Aus Health director has indicated that International Travel restrictions "will" remain in place for another 3 - 4 months "at least" .... Some countries may leave these in place for "much" longer..
Up to and including Sept this year estimate is 1.2 BILLION less passengers, ⅔ LESS capacity (I believe this to be optimistic) and Europe/Asia to be hardest hit...
https://conservativebrief.com
Please note in these charts they do not speculate past the 3rd or 4th quarter..
Read the details. Some of the facts/charts DO NOT include "domestic" travel contraction ...
There is as well, no influence from economists re the expected wave of bankruptcies, home foreclosures that are 100% expected starting in about 2 > 3 months.
Up to and including Sept this year estimate is 1.2 BILLION less passengers, ⅔ LESS capacity (I believe this to be optimistic) and Europe/Asia to be hardest hit...
https://conservativebrief.com
Please note in these charts they do not speculate past the 3rd or 4th quarter..
Read the details. Some of the facts/charts DO NOT include "domestic" travel contraction ...
There is as well, no influence from economists re the expected wave of bankruptcies, home foreclosures that are 100% expected starting in about 2 > 3 months.
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 78
From: S33E151
In the Depression people could spend money if they wanted to. Now they can't - they will hoard it. That means lack of demand. Lack of demand leads to lack of supply which leads to lack of jobs. The stock market hits and unemployment figures have more or less matched the Depression from 1929-1933. The differences now are that we've passed that in the last 4 weeks (not 5 years) and even in the Depression if I'd given you $10,000 you could have gone out and partied like it was 1999 - now you just cant do that.
Forgive the use of US figures, it's easier to use a single set we are all relatively familiar with. In 2008 US unemployment hit 15.3m, as of today there are likely 30-33m unemployed, which equates to something in excess of 25%.
30+ MILLION people effectively on welfare and not spending (forget about travelling!) in ONE economy is staggering. This is a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions - certainly at this stage I don't think anyone has a clue as to what is happening. Stock market players certainly don't - negative oil prices, bank collapses, there is no manual for this ultimate black swan event. If anyone had suggested 30% unemployment and oil at MINUS $40 even 4-5 weeks ago they would have been put away.
Airlines, travel and hospitality are the front lines. It's not going to be pretty for anyone, but even when people can travel again, they will likely be very cautious and that's even if they do actually have the money to do so....
Forgive the use of US figures, it's easier to use a single set we are all relatively familiar with. In 2008 US unemployment hit 15.3m, as of today there are likely 30-33m unemployed, which equates to something in excess of 25%.
30+ MILLION people effectively on welfare and not spending (forget about travelling!) in ONE economy is staggering. This is a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions - certainly at this stage I don't think anyone has a clue as to what is happening. Stock market players certainly don't - negative oil prices, bank collapses, there is no manual for this ultimate black swan event. If anyone had suggested 30% unemployment and oil at MINUS $40 even 4-5 weeks ago they would have been put away.
Airlines, travel and hospitality are the front lines. It's not going to be pretty for anyone, but even when people can travel again, they will likely be very cautious and that's even if they do actually have the money to do so....
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 1,040
Likes: 2
From: 3.5 from TD
A few facts from history
I don’t agree with the OP’s 15 year timeline, nothing in history has resulted in a downturn that long. No disease outbreak in the last +300 years has lasted that long either.
I don’t agree with the OP’s 15 year timeline, nothing in history has resulted in a downturn that long. No disease outbreak in the last +300 years has lasted that long either.
Of course the outbreak will go away. We are already seeing better data showing the massive overreaction. But the virus was just the trigger device on this nuclear debt bomb. The fact that the global economy exploded how it did has nothing to do with the virus and was years in the making.
Remember negative rates started way before the virus, and so did the repo market meltdown as well as the complete reversal on tapering by the Fed.
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 343
Likes: 0
From: Here
It’s galling that ordinary individuals and businesses are struggling whilst the pigs in the banking and hedge fund world roll around in free money from the Federal Reserve, meanwhile Joe six pack gets a 1200 dollar one off payment to keep him quite.
Welcome to the new feudal reality where banks and investment companies gorge themselves on free hand outs, leaving the plebs to claim a pitiful universal income from the state.
Welcome to the new feudal reality where banks and investment companies gorge themselves on free hand outs, leaving the plebs to claim a pitiful universal income from the state.
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,103
Likes: 78
From: S33E151
There is nothing to fear but fear itself. But it’s upon us and it’s real.
Pilots are technical, generally people aren’t. Politicians certainly aren’t. It occurred to me a while ago that it’s very difficult screwing up a sim/sector and reading about it. Politicians get that a million fold. It must hurt tremendously to do what you see as your best and be derided. Being written up as killing people is something most would do anything to avoid.
No winners in this, but tough love ain’t going to cut it in the popular press and (aside from the Wuhan/Auschwitz method of control) that’s what people will read about for generations to come....
No easy answers. It’s a catastrophe.
Pilots are technical, generally people aren’t. Politicians certainly aren’t. It occurred to me a while ago that it’s very difficult screwing up a sim/sector and reading about it. Politicians get that a million fold. It must hurt tremendously to do what you see as your best and be derided. Being written up as killing people is something most would do anything to avoid.
No winners in this, but tough love ain’t going to cut it in the popular press and (aside from the Wuhan/Auschwitz method of control) that’s what people will read about for generations to come....
No easy answers. It’s a catastrophe.
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 0
Likes: 1
From: Polar Route
Did you know a corona virus has never had an effective vaccine? Think SARS, where’s the vaccine?
To the point, a vaccine is likely not forthcoming. So what to do? Well, there’s only one thing to do... Herd Immunity, unless you consider shutting the world economy down long term to protect the oldies and vulnerables is an option.
In my opinion, this shutdown has been overcooked. Have we flattened the curve? Yes. Have we kept the health care system from being overrun? For sure. Have we destroyed the economy? Indeed! Have we stunted herd immunity? I argue yes.
What does this mean? It means that a second wave, likely in the fall (and possibly third wave in 2021), could well be proportionally worse. It will be very interesting to see how Sweden and other locations with lesser restrictions do by comparison. I think the world is about to get a huge lesson in epidemiology.
This virus is going to take its toll. The only question is where and when? Sweden is paying the piper up front. Will it pay off in the future? I believe it will. I especially admire their political courage to do what they have done in the face of a global shutdown. They haven’t succumbed to peer pressure and virtue signaling.
To the point, a vaccine is likely not forthcoming. So what to do? Well, there’s only one thing to do... Herd Immunity, unless you consider shutting the world economy down long term to protect the oldies and vulnerables is an option.
In my opinion, this shutdown has been overcooked. Have we flattened the curve? Yes. Have we kept the health care system from being overrun? For sure. Have we destroyed the economy? Indeed! Have we stunted herd immunity? I argue yes.
What does this mean? It means that a second wave, likely in the fall (and possibly third wave in 2021), could well be proportionally worse. It will be very interesting to see how Sweden and other locations with lesser restrictions do by comparison. I think the world is about to get a huge lesson in epidemiology.
This virus is going to take its toll. The only question is where and when? Sweden is paying the piper up front. Will it pay off in the future? I believe it will. I especially admire their political courage to do what they have done in the face of a global shutdown. They haven’t succumbed to peer pressure and virtue signaling.
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 267
Likes: 0
From: All over
Ya know, there's not this magical money Tree O' Health care in much of the world. There are places when the loss of a job may well mean your access to medical care just got a great deal worse than it was. So when you target fixate on ONE disease (which is in general really contagious, and really dangerous for a certain fraction of the population but relatively benign towards others) -- at the expense of everything else -- you kill people.
It's not like all the other diseases go away.
In the US, they've emptied out hospitals and literally banned 'elective' surgeries and preventative medicine to make room for COV patients who'll never show up. So what happens to these folks who now have their care at best pushed to the right several months ? Who otherwise might have had access to potentially life saving preventatives and diagnostics ? And to the laid off medical staff who now needs to regen to get back to work. While a doctor given a diagnosis can probably use his expertise to determine if care is essential at the time, it's impossible to look in from the outside with a broadband ban saying that some things are essential and these other things are not. Especially when driven by politicians and bureaucrats. So that preventative or elective might well be essential in reality; perhaps preventing a heart attack, embolism, or other serious condition from claiming a life.
I can see perhaps an ortho surgeon deciding for himself if it's in his (the doctors') best interest to be operating during a pandemic. But not some idiot in a tie making that decision for him.
So we are effectively killing people when we knee-jerk and overreact to one specific disease like this at the expense of everything else.
It's not like all the other diseases go away.
In the US, they've emptied out hospitals and literally banned 'elective' surgeries and preventative medicine to make room for COV patients who'll never show up. So what happens to these folks who now have their care at best pushed to the right several months ? Who otherwise might have had access to potentially life saving preventatives and diagnostics ? And to the laid off medical staff who now needs to regen to get back to work. While a doctor given a diagnosis can probably use his expertise to determine if care is essential at the time, it's impossible to look in from the outside with a broadband ban saying that some things are essential and these other things are not. Especially when driven by politicians and bureaucrats. So that preventative or elective might well be essential in reality; perhaps preventing a heart attack, embolism, or other serious condition from claiming a life.
I can see perhaps an ortho surgeon deciding for himself if it's in his (the doctors') best interest to be operating during a pandemic. But not some idiot in a tie making that decision for him.
So we are effectively killing people when we knee-jerk and overreact to one specific disease like this at the expense of everything else.
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 206
Likes: 20
From: DSOTM
Well gents, it’s going to be interesting that’s for sure. I hope people have something saved up because we seem to be heading for the catastrophe of a lifetime. LongTimeInCX has a solution that calls for the survival of the fittest, in the end if they don’t find a vaccine soon enough we will see that scenario play out. I don’t know what’s wise, I like my parents and would like to avoid rolling the dice with this one myself if I don’t absolutely have to.
However, I do not worry. We as a species are pretty resilient. We have survived wars, genocides, great leaps forward, ethnic and religious persecution, disease, famine and other catastrophes and as a species we will survive this one. Whether we do so with dignity will be up to each individual to decide for themselves.
Let’s wait and see what the managers come up with to try and get the group to survive this. In the end that’s critically important for all of us. If they can survive, it means we can all come back at some point after a period of furlough for a segment of the employees. If they do not survive, some of us may never work in a flight deck again. It is what it is.
I guess this is what they mean when they say “interesting times”.
However, I do not worry. We as a species are pretty resilient. We have survived wars, genocides, great leaps forward, ethnic and religious persecution, disease, famine and other catastrophes and as a species we will survive this one. Whether we do so with dignity will be up to each individual to decide for themselves.
Let’s wait and see what the managers come up with to try and get the group to survive this. In the end that’s critically important for all of us. If they can survive, it means we can all come back at some point after a period of furlough for a segment of the employees. If they do not survive, some of us may never work in a flight deck again. It is what it is.
I guess this is what they mean when they say “interesting times”.
Joined: Dec 1998
Posts: 223
Likes: 66
Comments from another website:
My employer mentioned last week that all 27k UK employees will remain work from home for a considerable time partly due to finding out the business operates just as well when home based, there are also rumours that the majority of the 16k located in London will be offered home working permanently and the company will offload several large properties. It would not be surprising to see the majority of companies doing the same in order to remove the costly real estate burden now that they have successfully experienced lengthy working from home. My employer also announced zero travel and complete change around travel in the future stating video conference will be the go to option.
This is the problem we now face...
My employer mentioned last week that all 27k UK employees will remain work from home for a considerable time partly due to finding out the business operates just as well when home based, there are also rumours that the majority of the 16k located in London will be offered home working permanently and the company will offload several large properties. It would not be surprising to see the majority of companies doing the same in order to remove the costly real estate burden now that they have successfully experienced lengthy working from home. My employer also announced zero travel and complete change around travel in the future stating video conference will be the go to option.
This is the problem we now face...
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 51
Likes: 0
From: FL340
Meanwhile, getting back to the title of this thread “Airlines Going Under” BA just announced plans to make 12000 employees redundant.
BA employs 45000 of which 4500 pilots, 16000 cabin crew,
I wonder if CX will follow that trend.
BA employs 45000 of which 4500 pilots, 16000 cabin crew,
I wonder if CX will follow that trend.
