Airlines Going Under
Joined: Mar 2000
Posts: 451
Likes: 6
From: the land of chocolate
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 6
Likes: 0
From: Terra
Some other people get paid way more than the pilot payscale to take these decisions. I'm rather asking myself where are they now... and what's their prediction!
And i'd rather stay away from all what is reported over and over again on the media.
Be safe and stay strong.
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 1,018
Likes: 180
From: Australia
My thoughts
Vaccine plus 12-18 months before countries start to open their borders properly for tourism as we saw it. I believe there is plenty of desire to go travelling, it’s the closed borders or restrictions that will stop it. That’s close to 3 years....
Internal domestic travel in countries where community transmission is controlled a lot sooner. But I really can’t see international getting to what....20-30% for years? I feel sick as I contemplate that but I can’t see it better than that. 15 years we will all have forgotten it ever happened, just in time for the next crisis.
Vaccine plus 12-18 months before countries start to open their borders properly for tourism as we saw it. I believe there is plenty of desire to go travelling, it’s the closed borders or restrictions that will stop it. That’s close to 3 years....
Internal domestic travel in countries where community transmission is controlled a lot sooner. But I really can’t see international getting to what....20-30% for years? I feel sick as I contemplate that but I can’t see it better than that. 15 years we will all have forgotten it ever happened, just in time for the next crisis.
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
From: HK
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 0
Likes: 1
From: Polar Route
The reality is that the debt stops growing when creditors stop buying US treasuries (bonds) and the fed’s printing stops creating capital liquidity due to (hyper-) inflation. That’s when the music stops and you better have a chair to sit on.
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 267
Likes: 0
From: All over
Or a really good place to go. Perfect storm. The economic engine has been stopped by feckless governments, everyone is borrowing from everyone else, and everyone is printing. Don't even need a press anymore; just electronically add a couple of trailing zeroes. The Keynesian money tree concept has never worked.
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 547
Likes: 1
From: the City by the Bay
I think things will ramp up very quickly soon as the virus threat is handled.
The planes are there the pilots too .And I believe people will fly unless tickets become absurd and I think they won’t for long .
Being alive is about being optimistic.
The planes are there the pilots too .And I believe people will fly unless tickets become absurd and I think they won’t for long .
Being alive is about being optimistic.
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 748
Likes: 0
From: HK-CRoC
Reality
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
From: UK
I'm all about optimism. And fully understand the HUGE pent up demand of travellers wanting to go on their holidays once this is all over. Indeed, there will be massive demand, particularly from the Brits, the Mainland Chinese, and Northern Europeans
However ... ticket prices will not only be double to triple (think paying biz class for a crappy eco ticket), due to social distancing requirements, but on top of that, your average punter is going to be BROKE AND ON HIS ASS financially for the next few years. So unless you're a complete idiot, you don't blow what little money you have on a weekend jolly to Ibiza at 2-3 inflated prices, but save it for a rainy day like we should have all been doing for years all along. But we were too greedy. The sensible would surely opt for a staycation particularly with a caravan. And avoid flying at all costs.
Has anyone thought of buying campers and caravans up en masse in the UK to satisfy the coming summer UK market? Another business idea.... you can have that one for free.
However ... ticket prices will not only be double to triple (think paying biz class for a crappy eco ticket), due to social distancing requirements, but on top of that, your average punter is going to be BROKE AND ON HIS ASS financially for the next few years. So unless you're a complete idiot, you don't blow what little money you have on a weekend jolly to Ibiza at 2-3 inflated prices, but save it for a rainy day like we should have all been doing for years all along. But we were too greedy. The sensible would surely opt for a staycation particularly with a caravan. And avoid flying at all costs.
Has anyone thought of buying campers and caravans up en masse in the UK to satisfy the coming summer UK market? Another business idea.... you can have that one for free.
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 26
Likes: 0
From: Kopavogur
People are craving for a change from quarantine and will absolutely start booking en masse vacations abroad. Nobody I speak to has any plans to reduce their spending on travel, on the contrary, they want to enjoy their life together with their family during a well earned vacation in a safe environment ( think EU).
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 241
Likes: 0
From: Nippi
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 142
Likes: 0
From: AOG
pull up numbers - the global numbers of flyers in 2003 and even in 2008 were NOT close to the numbers that came into effect between 2012-2019. To recover to that level especially with global border closures, jobless rates beyond comprehension and tightening of other basic sources of income - the least of my bloody worries is to take a selfie in front of the Eiffel. Time to change jobs - and pronto
What on earth are you basing your numbers on? Post 2008 the markets went on the longest bull run in history. This pandemic has been a black swan event for the world economy because we were woefully underprepared for it, however just like the crash of 2008 this too will pass.
I certainly don't have the answers but I am certainly more optimistic of a medium term recovery, trying to predict 15 years out from now is insanity. The vacuum created by the airlines that have gone bust will be filled by new airlines or expanding surviving airlines.
The only thing that is certain is that the sh1t well and truly hit the fan this time, the next 2-5 years no one really knows.
I certainly don't have the answers but I am certainly more optimistic of a medium term recovery, trying to predict 15 years out from now is insanity. The vacuum created by the airlines that have gone bust will be filled by new airlines or expanding surviving airlines.
The only thing that is certain is that the sh1t well and truly hit the fan this time, the next 2-5 years no one really knows.
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 142
Likes: 0
From: AOG
Apocalyptic but 100% spot on
It matters not about good or poor management, if there's NO fuc**ng passengers, they go tits up. Period.. And this is what's in store for the next few years being extremely optimistic.
Numbers; the top 4 biggest US airlines are losing 100 MILLION US$ per day - EACH !! Populate those figures to EVERY major airline in the world, get out your calculator and I doubt you can calculate the number unless your calculator can express scientific notation. Then take a wild guess at all the medium to small airlines ..
For those above basing their thoughts on 2008 & SARS.. You need to read more economic news as to what's going on !!! The US ALONE has already lost about 3 TRILLION $ in GDP (this not including lost income/salary).. that's in the US in just a 2 month period.. Get out that calculator again and just take a rough guess at the ROW numbers. Europe, Asia, Aus/NZ, South America +++.. This is money that has simply "vanished" never to be seen, spent or invested and VERY IMPORTANTLY, NOT Taxed (meaning, governments spending like drunken sailors with NO income)...
In the US "alone" already this coming week will see approximately 30 MILLION unemployed.
There is ZERO rosy pictures for the industry and adding to this, China (the CCP) has managed, in a 4 month long lying spree, to alienate nearly every country in the world so one might expect, over the next years, for those lucrative cargo shipments of rubber dog !!!! to collapse as well..
I'd personally stop those expensive Cable TV Sports channel subscriptions and cancel next years vacation reservations while you can.. This is just getting started..... B well.
Numbers; the top 4 biggest US airlines are losing 100 MILLION US$ per day - EACH !! Populate those figures to EVERY major airline in the world, get out your calculator and I doubt you can calculate the number unless your calculator can express scientific notation. Then take a wild guess at all the medium to small airlines ..
For those above basing their thoughts on 2008 & SARS.. You need to read more economic news as to what's going on !!! The US ALONE has already lost about 3 TRILLION $ in GDP (this not including lost income/salary).. that's in the US in just a 2 month period.. Get out that calculator again and just take a rough guess at the ROW numbers. Europe, Asia, Aus/NZ, South America +++.. This is money that has simply "vanished" never to be seen, spent or invested and VERY IMPORTANTLY, NOT Taxed (meaning, governments spending like drunken sailors with NO income)...
In the US "alone" already this coming week will see approximately 30 MILLION unemployed.
There is ZERO rosy pictures for the industry and adding to this, China (the CCP) has managed, in a 4 month long lying spree, to alienate nearly every country in the world so one might expect, over the next years, for those lucrative cargo shipments of rubber dog !!!! to collapse as well..
I'd personally stop those expensive Cable TV Sports channel subscriptions and cancel next years vacation reservations while you can.. This is just getting started..... B well.
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 1,040
Likes: 2
From: 3.5 from TD
What I do know is that predicting a downturn some 50% longer than the 1920s depression is at the bat!!!! crazy end of the pessimism spectrum.
So how accurate and useful is your opinion when you don’t even know what you are talking about? Suggest you read up on what led to the great Depression in the 1930s and you will see a lot of parallels.
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
From: HK
There was no depression in the 20s. There was a short, sharp recession (about a year and a half long). This was followed by the “roaring 20s”, a period of massive growth and prosperity.
So how accurate and useful is your opinion when you don’t even know what you are talking about? Suggest you read up on what led to the great Depression in the 1930s and you will see a lot of parallels.
So how accurate and useful is your opinion when you don’t even know what you are talking about? Suggest you read up on what led to the great Depression in the 1930s and you will see a lot of parallels.
- The Great Depression was a worldwide economic depression that lasted 10 years. It began on “Black Thursday," Oct. 24, 1929.
- The depression was caused by the stock market crash of 1929 and the Fed’s reluctance to increase the money supply
- GDP during the Great Depression fell by half, limiting economic movement.
- A combination of the New Deal and World War II lifted the U.S. out of the Depression.
Would you be happier if I edited my original post to read 'the depression which began in 1929 and lasted 10 years' sqwak?