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Old 21st May 2009, 10:35
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Holyman, just a thought on the Russian market....

Yes, the Russian market crashed (like everywhere else) and lots of cash was suddenly "gone". However, having said that, the Russian RTS is up by about 60 + % since New Year and I think they will recover a lot faster then Europe will....

As for business model, choice of aircraft etc etc goes, only time can tell....

Good luck anyway!

CP
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Old 21st May 2009, 14:18
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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James Nicholson, rather than simply slamming the critics, why don't you address their criticisms directly?

Tell us why you think JR will work. Why is it better than NetJets? Why is the Lear 60 the right aircraft?
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Old 21st May 2009, 14:48
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James Nicholson, rather than simply slamming the critics, why don't you address their criticisms directly?

Tell us why you think JR will work. Why is it better than NetJets? Why is the Lear 60 the right aircraft?
My view....:

I HOPE that JR works out, not for the sake of NJE or VJ or anyone else, but simply because a whole bunch of unemployed folks would get a seat on the flight deck again. (and I think that is what JN is trying to say)

If one is desperate for a job I bet he gives s*** about politics and would take either of the three, so lets just hope they create some jobs.
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Old 21st May 2009, 16:26
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Hoping it will work out is different than believing it will work out.
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Old 21st May 2009, 19:40
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Once again, please address the specific criticisms.
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Old 21st May 2009, 21:02
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However if they manage to secure a U$ 1.500.000.000 investment (source FT)
So if the newspaper believes the PR send to them it is true



ps I just raise this point as I intend to use this forum as a platform for voicing a different opinion to you James so dont shoot the messenger...
I mistakenly assumed that this forum was intended as a platform for voicing different opinions and exchange the latest news and “rumours” for the benefit of all.
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Old 22nd May 2009, 13:34
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Of course it will work: Watch
One can still get just about 4% interest these days. 4% on $1.5 billion is $60 million a year. The hourly cost of a Lear 60 including lease fees on say 750 hours a year is about $3,000. $60 million divided by $3,000 is 20,000 divided by 750 is 26.666. So they could operate 26 Learjets, not charge the customers a bean and STILL make a profit.
Easy init!
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Old 22nd May 2009, 13:49
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What is wrong with you folks ?

At least have the courtesy and professionalism to wish this operation your best wishes

Snipping gets you lot nowhere, too many failures, too much negatism, please grow the **** up and realise this is jobs for folks

Nope I've got diddly squat to do with JR., but I love this industry
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Old 22nd May 2009, 14:18
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Merlinxx

The reason people are sceptical and they have every reason to be is that there are plenty of established charter companies who have seen start ups like this tooooo many times. They all think they have found the golden way to do it. What happens is they f.......k up the market for a couple of years and then go bust having done the industry no favours in the meantime. Bluestream was the last one that tried. The effect of that lot going bust owing millions was for the likes of Multi Service and Signature to withdraw credit facilities to most of it's customers. (All except Netjets actually) so tarring everyone with the same brush. Each new failure puts up our costs.
This business model is flawed. It will not work. To capitalise a company with about the same capital as British Airways is absurd. Selling shares in the wrong aircraft is ridiculus. Warren Buffet and the board of Net Jets must be p........ing themselves with laughter.
I simpathise with out of work pilots, I really do, but when the slimmest possibilty of a job appears they put their beer goggles on.

Put simply, too many people get into this Industry for the wrong reasons, they think it is sexy, flashy, and a way to get rich quick, when in reality it is just hard graft. I would not recommend putting your mum's pension into this scheme.
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Old 22nd May 2009, 14:19
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Merlinxx:


Exactly my thoughts ; I have no idea if JR will succeed or not, but I definately wish them well.

It seems that many people here, don think/want( ?? ) that a company that would create jobs in our particular field would do well, I don't see a good reason for that, even if they dislike the heck out of the main visible head on it.
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Old 22nd May 2009, 14:41
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JI


jUST CURIOUS::HOW MANY OF YOU GUYS DISCUSSING THIS SUBJECT ARE PILOTS??

AND HOW MANY OF YOU DISCUSSING-PILOTS ARE VICTIMS OF THE GLOBAL RECESSION(I MEAN JOBLESS)?

Anyways.....
I still think more competition means better chances for all of us.

just my 23,4 Cents
cheers
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Old 22nd May 2009, 14:53
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22 or 23 I'm not quite sure..

Me personally P1 in one of those s..ity 60's , fortunately employed right now.
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Old 22nd May 2009, 15:46
  #233 (permalink)  
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Hawker750 (post 250) - 'nail on the head' stuff

A no-hope offering is not always a positive for pilots.
How many companies fail but have paid all their dues to pilots before closing??
How many times do we read of pilots owed for company spend put on their personal credit cards?
How many times do pilots fly with 2 months salary overdue unpaid in the hope that it'll work out in the end...?

Wake up!

Many clients are very green when they first encounter private jets, but be sure that these intelligent (rich) people, learn very quickly, and when they get stuffed on a private jet deal, that's another dissatisfied user that our industry has working against it. Ask the man who bought a Global Exp last year for $51m and who finds it's worth $33m today, whether he wishes crazy start-ups well.

REAL jobs are handed out by real companies that face the real issues head on and try to make a living out of a very tough industry which tends not to allow much profitability. Pprune is archived full of the machinations of failing aviation companies who promised long and delivered short - stuff of dreams

Meanwhile us old-timers have seen all these 'get rich quick' scams far too many times to feel pleased that 'yippee - here are more pilot jobs being created'.

If the PR looks unbelievable...it probably is. Or put another way, if it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, walks like a duck, it probably is a duck.

Wishful thinking won't get you anywhere - look for reality or you're likely to get hurt.
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Old 22nd May 2009, 15:55
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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Fischmeister: not unemployed YET, but my airplane is up for sale.

Anyways.....
I still think more competition means better chances for all of us.
Hmm, I would think that the market has given size, alot of price undercutting is already taken place. The question is, can the market sustain another BIG contender.

As I don´t have an personal axe to grind with them, I sure wish them well, but in the end I think it does not help to create, say, 200 jobs with them, if 200 others will have to go.

Time will tell and maybe the created jobs are good and here to last, I certainly wish you and the other unemployed guys all the best.
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Old 22nd May 2009, 16:24
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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hawker750 & V12

I do agree with your thought thread, but and a big but, is that we have seen many cowboys & shafters screw the hell out of crew/staff/brokers/customers/suppliers (hawker you mention MS) and me When someone who possibly has an ethically based, and well funded project, should we all be so damning of their efforts ?

In my 45 years around this industry (on most all sides) I've seen them come and go

If there were no optimism, there would be no going forward Yes we have ****e times now, and in the next few years, but the nadir of BIZAV (I was involved with NBAA & EBAA) has gone for now It will come back, patience and please, not bitterness Good luck all you folks
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Old 22nd May 2009, 17:46
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Merlinxx

The problem that nobody seems to accept is that our market is limited. One cannot persuad mum and dad and uncle cyril to alter their travel plans from 2 weeks in Palma for £700 to chartering a private jet. A massive newcomer to the market does not create new business he simply takes it from existing customers and almost all new starters undercut the market rate "just to get going". Our market does not earn enough as it is, the profit margin is 5% on a VERY good year if you are lucky. In 1988 when we bought our first HS 125 the charter rate was £1,600/Hr and I paid a Captain £25,000. and the fuel at LGW was 10p/ltr Now the rate is about £2,100 (and clients still try to knock you down). Captain £65,000 and fuel 45p/ltr. It does not make sense.
So tell me, what are JR coming into the market for because it cannot be profit motivated, so I guess it is a scam
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Old 22nd May 2009, 17:58
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Said my bit, going home now, had a real flashy week in this cool industry, paid some bills, had long meetings with the Authority and dealt with a broken lav in one of the planes, but on a positive note I detect a small UPTURN (note small)
Have a good week end guys speak next week,
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Old 22nd May 2009, 21:08
  #238 (permalink)  
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I've already said my piece about the viability of this company and there are enough people continuing that argument for me to remain an interested (outside) observer. In that role I would like to make a point though.

Those from NJE bemoaning JR's press releases, spin, puff, advertising or whatever you want to call it would do well to look back at the same type of things put out by their own employer over the years. "Two captains on every aircraft......the best of the best...." and other bovine scented waste. It's no better or worse than anything JR have released which really only goes to prove just how much of this sort of thing goes on. So their CEO has been photographed with an aeroplane? Err, how many times have NJ done that? This is what they do. All of them. You might as well criticise them for breathing.

Instead of bitching why not wait and see? If they prove to be no threat you can breathe a sigh of relief. On the other hand if they do make headway they might just be the escape route some of you need if your management get heavy handed about the cost saving measures being put to you at the moment.

New balls please. James Nicholson to serve.........
 
Old 22nd May 2009, 21:20
  #239 (permalink)  
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Sorry James, but Hawker750 has it right. Don't know who he is, but he's talking sense.

Look at all the new start failures and they have one thing in common: they go down owing £millions to clients, brokers, staff, crew, fuellers, FBO, caterers etc. Where do you think that money came from? It's all debts, because there was no profit.

Why no profit? Because they had a poor business model, because they discounted to buy in the 'new' business (which of course wasn't 'new' at all), and then they wondered why they ran out of cash so early on (and yes hence they screwed up the market in the process).

Competition can be fair but usually 'new' competition is 'subsidised' in some shape or form (eg: Bluestream's Platt; VJS's Russian + Mexican owners; NJ's Berkshire Hathaway etc), so it's not a level playing field to start with. And guess what, ...when they charge the market rate, the business dries up.

The old lags have seen it all before and are sceptical because it is simply not new. You can talk about fancy coffee and blackberry interfaces but that's not what clients pay extra for.

So as soon as a business has to stand on its own two feet, these entrepreneurs eventually fathom out that they've been charging too little.

Then another entreprenuer enters the market at a lower rate and the whole cycle starts again.

I accept there are one or two exceptions to this rule, but in essence this is how it's been for a very long time. NJE looked to be the exception, making some operating profit in 2008, but that's all blown now and it won't return, so even they with all their marketing $$quillions didn't break the mould. JR and VJS won't do it either. Why put $quillions in, with the required tonnage of effort, and buckets of risk, to 'possibly if you're really luck' earn a 5% return?

These entrepreneurs should just leave it in HSBC, sit back and accept the interest rate, which requires no effort other than drinking a G&T as you sit and monitor the bank account.

Also same in the airline business: look at Silverjet, Maxjet, Eos, and a dozen UK IT airlines who have failed over the last decade.

If I am wrong, name any operating company which has achieved >5% net profit for two consecutive years in its first decade? Even BA who have dreamed of making the heady heights of 10% net return, today turned a £900m profit into a £400m loss in just 12 months - that's a delta of £100m a month in the wrong direction.
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Old 23rd May 2009, 11:07
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Back to the facts

V12

"VJS's Russian + Mexican owners" This is a completely incorrect statement...please do not continue to pedal untruths. If you want any further details, as usual PM me and I will send you my mobile number.

Profit in the first decade. VJ nuff said.

When will elements of the pilot community stop being so negative about people who put their money where their mouths are and get on with changing what is a poorly regulated, low quality, cottage industry, at the same time paying their salary, their per diems, their 4 star + only hotel bills, their uniform bills, their medical bills............no wonder business aviation struggles to attract the normal amount of entrepreneurs, when it is faced with such a negative work force.

Stop p***ing and moaning and try to do something to make YOUR industry better!!!!!! either that or go back to flying 4 times a day to the same place and back !!!!!!!!! and if you dont want progress then you're in the wrong job.

DJ101
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