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Old 22nd May 2009, 21:20
  #239 (permalink)  
V12
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Edinburgh
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Sorry James, but Hawker750 has it right. Don't know who he is, but he's talking sense.

Look at all the new start failures and they have one thing in common: they go down owing £millions to clients, brokers, staff, crew, fuellers, FBO, caterers etc. Where do you think that money came from? It's all debts, because there was no profit.

Why no profit? Because they had a poor business model, because they discounted to buy in the 'new' business (which of course wasn't 'new' at all), and then they wondered why they ran out of cash so early on (and yes hence they screwed up the market in the process).

Competition can be fair but usually 'new' competition is 'subsidised' in some shape or form (eg: Bluestream's Platt; VJS's Russian + Mexican owners; NJ's Berkshire Hathaway etc), so it's not a level playing field to start with. And guess what, ...when they charge the market rate, the business dries up.

The old lags have seen it all before and are sceptical because it is simply not new. You can talk about fancy coffee and blackberry interfaces but that's not what clients pay extra for.

So as soon as a business has to stand on its own two feet, these entrepreneurs eventually fathom out that they've been charging too little.

Then another entreprenuer enters the market at a lower rate and the whole cycle starts again.

I accept there are one or two exceptions to this rule, but in essence this is how it's been for a very long time. NJE looked to be the exception, making some operating profit in 2008, but that's all blown now and it won't return, so even they with all their marketing $$quillions didn't break the mould. JR and VJS won't do it either. Why put $quillions in, with the required tonnage of effort, and buckets of risk, to 'possibly if you're really luck' earn a 5% return?

These entrepreneurs should just leave it in HSBC, sit back and accept the interest rate, which requires no effort other than drinking a G&T as you sit and monitor the bank account.

Also same in the airline business: look at Silverjet, Maxjet, Eos, and a dozen UK IT airlines who have failed over the last decade.

If I am wrong, name any operating company which has achieved >5% net profit for two consecutive years in its first decade? Even BA who have dreamed of making the heady heights of 10% net return, today turned a £900m profit into a £400m loss in just 12 months - that's a delta of £100m a month in the wrong direction.
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