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Vulcan to the Sky, The End? (Merged)

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Old 6th Aug 2006, 23:00
  #241 (permalink)  
 
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I really don't understand this kind of logic. I've just been looking at the posts on UKAR about this same subject and it's mind-numbing to see how some people on there (in typical fashion) can't even be bothered to cut and paste a simple message and email it (a task which takes about a minute and costs nothing) but they can take the time to write paragraphs whining and bitching about the project, presumably to supposedly impress us all with their views... even though we've heard the same moans and comments a hundred times or more.

We all know that the project has had a troubled past and I've been doing my best to follow it with more than a little cynicism, as you'll see if you trace my postings on here. But this just isn't the time to be going over this ground again. There's less than three weeks before the project gets closed-down and the people get laid-off. You can virtually guarantee that once the project stops, it will never start again. The aircraft will be rolled-out, and probably never go back into the hangar, and she'll be left out in the open at Bruntigthorpe to slowly rot. Years of work, money-raising, enthuisasm and high hopes, along with a pile of Lottery cash, will have been thrown-away. What possible point is there in allowing this to happen, unless it's merely for the benefit of the miserable UKAR users who are waiting to post-up their "I told you so" messages next month?

We all know that the project requires huge sums of cash to keep going, and everything ultimately depends on sponsorship. But there's not even a hope of sponsorship until the project is completed and the aircraft flies. If XH558 only succeeds in making a few test flights and a handful of public appearances next year, surely this is better than allowing the project to fail, for the sake of 250k? The deal is this - we'll never know what might or might not happen unless the aircraft flies. If the 250k is found, it's pretty certain that it will fly. If it isn't found, the project ends, and despite a long saga of finger-pointing, the end result will still be another pile of non-airworthy metal.

There are no guarantees in this project and I'm sure there are many people who might well have to account for their actions sooner or later. But let's be adult about this and do the finger-pointing at the right time. Moaning and arguing right now will achieve absolutely nothing except failure.

The only possible way (save for a miracle) that the cash can be found, is if the HLF can cough-up a little more cash to add to the money they've already allocated. TVOC seem certain that they won't do this, but as members of the Lottery-paying public, we have every right to press them to do so. If they allow their money to be wasted simply because they're too pig-headed to spend a little bit more, they're a disgrace. I'm not defending TVOC, but right now we need to be clear about what is important. To do nothing and get sidetracked with the wider aspects of the project at this moment in time is counter-productive; It's a bit like proposing to have an inquest on the Titanic disaster on the upper deck, while people are jumping into lifeboats...
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Old 6th Aug 2006, 23:07
  #242 (permalink)  
 
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Tim,

Where do you get your certainty from that £250k will see her fly ?

The TVOC website quotes a cool million.

The present incumbents have been unable to attract a corporate sponsor despite their plan depending on it not to mention the countless other issues varius others have raised here and elsewhere. I like lots of others donate every month. I want to see it fly. I am not prepared to plough cash into a bottomless pit managed by those who have a continual track record of failure.

The good doctor and our bond girl are nowhere to be seen with no messages to keep the donors, the project lifeblood updated. Apparently they will respond to you but just not go public and face the music. How can you blame people for doubting when they treat their donors like that ? I am perplexed. If they stood up and gave us the whole unedited truth they may find that they win some respect and get some support, without they create suspicion and intrigue and noone believes a word.

Its not a question of give now and discuss later, that is just staving off the ill fated day. Make the changes needed now and then perhaps the big bird will fly instead of rusting in a hangar that the previous owners will doubtless take delight in collecting the rent for.
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Old 6th Aug 2006, 23:29
  #243 (permalink)  
 
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The figures on the various sites are confusing, but basically a sum of around 250k is needed to keep the project going beyond the end of this month. Without this cash, TVOC have accepted that the project will have to be ended then, purely for legal reasons centered on the Trust's status, etc. Consequently they have been obliged to issue redundancy notices and so on, whilst hoping that the wind-up might still be avoided.

I believe FI is on holiday and I also think it's, shall we say inappropriate that she should be away at this critical time. But what do we do? Sit on our hands and sulk until she comes back? As I say, we can argue about Felicity and everything else at a later stage, if needs be. As for Dr Pleming, he is going into hospital this week, so he's physically unable to do anything, and he's as frustrated as everyone else it seems.

Dr Pleming seems confident that sufficient money might be raised to avoid winding-up the project, but my own view is that it probably won't be achieved unless the HLF has a change of heart and steps-in. But either way, we will know in three weeks.

Likewise, Dr Pleming accepts that the project could be put "on hold" next month, and the whole saga could be examinined in detail, maybe even going so far as to re-starting the project under a new Trust or whatever. But we're all pretty certain that this will not happen. Once the Vulcan leaves Walton's over-priced hangar and the Marshall engineers go home, the project is dead and who (I mean seriously, who?!) is ever going to take it on again?

I agree that it's disheartening to be continually sending-off donations when there's no guarantee that the aircraft will ever manage more than a few test flights. This is where I firmly believe that the aircraft's short-term future rests with the HLF. They and probably they alone, have the ability to keep this project alive until it reaches the critical flight stage, and after so much money and effort has been poured into the project, I think it only right that they should keep the project alive until the aircraft flies.

I agree that there are many questions that TVOC need to answer and there must be many stages of this project where things could have been done very differently. But we have to keep these matters for later. Right now, I think the only sensible thing we can do is to badger the HLF to do a little more, rather than waste all the money that we (and they) have spent so far.
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Old 6th Aug 2006, 23:37
  #244 (permalink)  
 
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I agree about badgering HLF, no problem with that and will be sending mine off as a registered letter in the morning as well as email so it can get onto someone's desk instead of their spam filter.

Whilst I totally agree that the project should get some additional support from HLF, and I hate to say this, if I was sat at HLF HQ with more info than we have frankly, and someone says, "£250k to TVOC or to a cancer research charity or some other good cause, ?" What do you think they would do and more to the point what would the majority of tax payers / lottery buyers want if you are objective about it ?

I hope they get what they need, thats 2 things in my book, the cash and the stringing up of Miss Boom Boom Bang Bang and the remainder of the management team, metaphorically. (People would pay to see that!!!)

Forgive my stupidity, but is it beyond possibilities that another hangar could be built on site for less than these ludicrous rental payments ? Why don't we paint the bird white and sell space on it to uncle tom cobbley aka F1 cars and let anyone take out an advert as big or small as they like and get 100 SME donors giving £5k each instead of this barking mad idea that someone will sponsor the delta with £500k.
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 06:40
  #245 (permalink)  
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Lightbulb

He says, ‘It’s bad enough putting a civil airliner onto a different register’. Not in any way related - so why use it... ...And this, as I see it, is the whole problem - applying public transport fare paying passenger thinking to a aircraft which will operate on a Permit to Fly, something about which airline people know zilch.
Not the first time my technical competence has been questioned.

I'm an ex-military technician with military experience on the Vulcan B1A and B2 who has advanced to professional status and senior management in civil aircraft maintenance. Along the way having headed a technical services department and held a limited design approval as per BCAR A2-5 - which in this case is very relevant.

Maintenance of the Vulcan aircraft is under BCAR A8-20, Supplement 2.1.2 of which refers to:
(a) A3-7 sub para 3.1(d) for the basis for the issue of a Permit to Fly and to
(b) A3-7 Appendix 1 which lists the evidence to be provided to substantiate the issue. I recommend anyone unfamiliar with large aircraft maintenance to read these tomes. You can find them here and it may help in understanding why the restoration and operation of the old girl is so very expensive.
Further, A8-20 paragraph 2.4 states that for any modifications "Normal procedures as detailed in Chapter A2-5 will apply."

Now as a holder of limited design approval I had to be very familiar with these requirements. In particular, Major Modifications are classified as any that require revisions to the technical manuals. In other words, just about everything. For approval for a Major Modification one must submit an application for CAA approval on Form 282. Not to mention that it is the contractor - in this case a limited company responsible to shareholders for making a profit - to design the modifications and apply for CAA approval.

Its usually a very, very expensive process and as forget pointed out, issuing a Permit To Fly has never been done before for an ex-military aircraft of this size and complexity.

Do I know zilch? Indeed - lots of it
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 07:23
  #246 (permalink)  
 
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£250 K needed for August

I have followed this fairly closely and, without getting involved in who has and hasn't done what and when, I have to ask - if £250K is needed to keep things going to the end of August, surely some more will be needed every month for the forseeable future and where will that come from? I can appreciate that that the outgoings may be reduced by making the engineers redundant but then the project is going to falter anyway. £250K gets them to 1st September - then what?
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 07:49
  #247 (permalink)  
 
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I think this Vulcan thing will end in tears. Aircraft like this are just too big, expensive and difficult to run outside of their original military environments.

Before the easliy-excited amongst you raise your blood pressure to dangerous levels I will add that I am a professional aviator, former military with time on a V-type. The Vulcan was a great airshow draw and it would be great if it could perform again. However, I really don't believe it is a viable project. You have to get over it.
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 09:45
  #248 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tim McLelland
I really don't understand this kind of logic. I've just been looking at the posts on UKAR about this same subject and it's mind-numbing to see how some people on there (in typical fashion) can't even be bothered to cut and paste a simple message and email it (a task which takes about a minute and costs nothing) but they can take the time to write paragraphs whining and bitching about the project, presumably to supposedly impress us all with their views... even though we've heard the same moans and comments a hundred times or more.
Tim,

have you considered the possibility that some people may infact believe that the project is a waste of time and, as a result, do not wish to 'cut and paste' your message?

Sorry chaps, I'm dead against more public money being poured into this badly run project. Tim's estimates on costing are, quite frankly, a joke. It would cost millions of pounds to keep this aircraft on the airshow circuit for just a few seasons.
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 10:06
  #249 (permalink)  
 
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Tim,
Your enthusiasm is commendable, as is your energy to keep this alive, but the fact is that the project is (well almost) dead in the water.
It has failed for a number of reasons, ALL of them predictable and ALL of them forseeable even to the 'non-aviation' minded amongst us.
Bad Management is the primary cause, and that rests clearly on the shoulders of one man in particular.
Even at this late stage, there is no clear understanding or confirmation about how much is needed, and A2QFI makes a good point when he asks what happens at the end of August? Do we try to revive this project and bumble along on a month by month 'rolling goat' basis? Frankly, that is just silly and unrealistic.
'It 'aint gonna happen' Tim, certainly NOT whilst the present management and hangers-on are in the picture. Too much money has been wasted and gone astray into peoples bank accounts, and I fear that the only thing that will fly in this project, will be the smelly stuff when HM Police Force gets their teeth into it.
Let it go Tim.
TSM
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 10:39
  #250 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tombstone

Sorry chaps, I'm dead against more public money being poured into this badly run project.
...and next month when Lottery grants are announced for Gay Tibetan Guinea Pig farmers, Traumatised Dutch mountain cllimbers and so forth will you still feel that the Lottery shouldn't have helped out a bit further?

I'm as sceptical as anyone about management of the project but the HLF did think the business plan (which incorporated the display phase of the aircraft) made sense - and I'm sure they subjected it to accountants not enthusiasts. What's happened so far are supplier cost overruns - Eurofighter, Army communications systems, the first Nimrod re-vamp all suffer it, look at UK Gas bills and petrol prices for a simple view. Someone has to pay for those price rises...
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 11:02
  #251 (permalink)  
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....and this is the standard reply:

Thank you for your email. The Vulcan to the Sky Trust was awarded a Heritage Lottery Fund (HLF) grant of £2.73million in June 2004. This grant is for the restoration of the Avro Vulcan Bomber XH558, plans for it to fly for another 10-15 years and for it to be kept at the Imperial War Museum in Duxford. An accompanying education programme is also planned which will tell the story of the Cold War.

The Vulcan to the Sky Trust is doing a terrific job restoring the Vulcan Bomber and we have been impressed with their ability to stick to the proposed timetable for getting the aircraft up and running. However, the Trust has let us know that costs have escalated and it is having problems securing additional funding.


We are currently in discussion with the Trust as to how it can best take the project forward. Whilst we sympathise with their financial difficulties, it would be unlikely that we could offer any further support having already awarded a substantial grant.

Regards

Clare Henderson

Information Manager

Heritage Lottery Fund

Direct line: 020 7591 6044



However, if enought people email it might change their minds.

Mods How about a merge with the other thread about 558??
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 11:21
  #252 (permalink)  
 
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Exactly Alan - they've started sending out this standard reply to everyone, but as you can see, they use the term "unlikely" rather than "imossible"...

Like you say, if enough people make the effort to send an email, and make sure all their friends do too, we can at least be sure that HLF is not going to dismiss the pleas for more cash. They're still talking to TVOC and I have some direct contacts at HLF connected with the project, so I'll also be pressing them to at least consider helping out.

As you say, let's get to the final hurdle and jump it before we start attributing blame to anyone. Carts before horses and all that...
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 11:26
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed, I've been muttering about TVOC's activities for a long time and I think there are lots of rather difficult questions which they will have to answer sooner or later. But Pleming has been clear to state that he accepts the project hasn't run perfectly and that cost over-runs have arisen. When you learn of how Marshall's have done nothing to support the project other than take a full fee, and how Rolls Royce have done likewise... and then you learn that the original owner is charging huge sums of money just to keep the aircraft under cover, you can see that it has become something of a farce.

But as I keep saying - this just isn't the time to start the witch hunt. Finish the project first and then there is at least an aircraft with a future to decide. Right now there looks like being nothing other than a load of wasted cash. That can't make sense can it?
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:12
  #254 (permalink)  
 
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If WEBF's SeaJet thread couldn't keep the SHAR flying then what chance does Tim's Vulcan thread have?
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:14
  #255 (permalink)  
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I suppose it comes down to whether or not one believes another injection of cash will achieve anything or go the way of the rest of it. Personally, I like to see the historic aircraft fly, even this cold war dinosaur, but don't see why anyone publicly should subsidise it, including MA, BAe or the previous owner.
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:24
  #256 (permalink)  
 
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When you learn of how Marshall's have done nothing to support the project other than take a full fee, and how Rolls Royce have done likewise... and then you learn that the original owner is charging huge sums of money just to keep the aircraft under cover, you can see that it has become something of a farce.
OK, let's get this straight, the Waltons buy an old aircraft, they realise there's some risk involved, but they think it's worth a punt. The difficulties are too great so they decide to sell said old jet. Along come a group of enthusiasts who want to take on the project and agree to the Walton's terms. The Waltons are happy, they've made a return on their investment and continue to receive income from their fixed asset. i.e. the hangar. The new group agree contracts with various companies to have work carried out at commercial rates. Now the enthusiasts group find out that they've got their sums wrong and cannot finish the project, so it will have to fold, simple?

Of course it's not the enthusiasts' fault, they couldn't have foreseen that companies actually require payment at the market rate; if they don't, then they are called "Sponsors". Sponsors seem to be sadly lacking, maybe because their accountants are unconvinced by the figures presented to them (they operate to commercial standards unlike the HLF) or maybe because the people they consult about the operational elements of the plan provide a more objective view than the enthusiasts. Either way, no sponsors, no money.

So, as has been said above, "Get over it", it's not going to happen because it just costs too much and is not commercially viable.

I flew the Vulcan, displayed it and have 20 years in commercial aviation. I never felt that this project was viable but I am sorry that I seem to being proved correct.

Yellow Sun
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:25
  #257 (permalink)  
 
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I think the annoyance with the likes of Marshall's, BAe and Rolls Royce comes from the way that they like to push their "British engineering is best" bit when it suits them, but when a project comes along which will promote a classic example of British design and technology, they can't lift a finger to help. BAe have helped if only by proxy, but for Marshalls and RR to have simply taken their commercial cut? Seems shabby to say the least. Just seems to indicate that their all about making a fast buck, and don't give a stuff about British achievements.

As for restoring a Sea Harrier, I've never heard anything about that so I can't comment. But of course the Vulcan project has effectively been running ever since the aircraft left RAF service, so it hasn't been some half-hearted fantasy. Indeed, it's the minute detail and the comprehensive re-fit (insisted-on by CAA) which has allowed the programme to take so long and become so expensive. In effect, we have the results of the most ambitious aircraft restoration so far attempted, and yet it is in danger of failing just weeks before the aircraft will be capable of flying again. We've come all this way and spent huge sums of cash... and now it ends just short of the final achievement? Surely that's crazy?
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:32
  #258 (permalink)  
 
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Tim,
I might be a little more sympathetic to the plight of this project, if Pleming had taken the time and had the decency to respond to the likes of myself, and many others, when we wrote or e mailed him with questions about the projects viability. Sadly, I did not receive anything, and I understand many others did not either.
The problem I have is the one raised earlier about where does it end?
Yes, we could all cough up just another tenner, but what happens next month? is it another tenner then? and the month after that?
Your comments about Walton frankly infuriate me. It shows him in a particularly bad light, and whilst it pains me to tell you, this has been commented on before on a number of occasions, and everyone who has questioned it has been shot down in flames, being told that D Walton is a 'nice man' - hmmm, yes OK.
We must draw a line under this farce until something a little more concrete is in place. As has already been said, this cannot be run on a hand-to-mouth basis but needs a new management team to go in a take over the running, preferably a team with a little bit of experience in aviation! Until then, I will not be putting any more money into Plemings' or Waltons pockets.
The Winco

ps. As for a witch hunt Tim, the 'hunt' has been going on for a long time, with a lot of people looking to find out where all the money has gone. A great deal of credibility could be achieved by being up front and honest to the British Public. You never know, it may even spurr a few on to donate!
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:36
  #259 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by iank
...and next month when Lottery grants are announced for Gay Tibetan Guinea Pig farmers, Traumatised Dutch mountain cllimbers and so forth will you still feel that the Lottery shouldn't have helped out a bit further?
Not exactly realistic examples are they?

IMHO, the bottom line is that we are potentially looking at a black hole of a project, which will swallow as much money as you can throw at it and that is unacceptable.

The Vulcan has retired, let her sleep gracefully.
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Old 7th Aug 2006, 12:39
  #260 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed, it's the minute detail and the comprehensive re-fit (insisted-on by CAA) which has allowed the programme to take so long and become so expensive.
OK Tim, so it's the CAA's fault then? So you fully understand how this works from your extensive dealings with them? You are conversant with the regulatory regime? "Permit to Fly" does not mean it can be treated as a light aircraft. Because it is not going to carry passengers does not mean it is not a commercial undertaking and the aircraft is not going to be involved in "Aerial Work". The regulations applied by the CAA are in place to ensure the safety of the public and the operators, which ones do you propose to ignore Tim?

YS
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