You would think so. But Australian media isn’t interested in showing footage of vaccinated holidaymakers suntanning on the beaches of Spain or Greece. Instead we’ll get footage of bodies or filthy hospitals in India or Africa or other third world countries as a reason why, even with vaccination, we need the borders closed to be kept safe and to be reminded that “Australia is the envy of the world”.....

The mass exodus has begun. 65,000 departures in April alone is pretty huge compared to the inbound numbers. We'll lose 5% of our population before the year is out. That's a lot of tax revenue walking out the door. Graph below is residents returning x1000.

**EDIT** The inbound numbers for April were a lot higher as well at 55'000ish**

Departures increasing

Since March last year, 156,507 Australian citizens and permanent residents were given exemptions to leave Australia out of 329,180 who made requests, according to the Australian Border Force.

A total of 84,031 requests from Australian citizens and permanent residents to leave Australia were denied.

In April, there were 65,100 departures from Australia, the highest monthly figure since the pandemic began, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Among those leaving are long-term skilled migrants, which economic policy program director at the Grattan Institute Brendan Coates says Australia can't afford to lose.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e17fec70e8.png


https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bye-bye-...nes%20overseas.

They’ll open. Just not by Christmas. More likely by about this time next year and in a staged way. Whether demand returns quickly is another thing entirely.

I expect by this time next year, Victoria will be in its 10th lockdown, the feds will still be negotiating with the states over dedicated quarantine facilities, the premiers will continue keeping the population in fear and under emergency powers, vaccinations will have stubbornly stalled at around 60%, not enough to reach herd immunity and far too risky to open the borders.

I hope we end up closer to my prediction than yours Potsie but I certainly see your version of events of being the other side of the same coin!

If there is one thing the last 15 months have taught us is that it doesn’t matter how stupid we think the decisions being made are, they always find a deeper degree of ‘stupid’ to go to.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...sydney-flights

That's because many of the State Governments decisions are driven by ideological thinking rather than the best decision. The question you have to ask is why are the States going to change their policies?

Not to mention that it is also inflationary, drives a labour crisis and it isn't really a State problem but a Federal one because the State Governments don't collect income tax.

Considering private sector wage growth had been at an all time low, a labour shortage might be viewed as a good thing by a significant portion of the general public.

“…the NSW Government has requested the 18-20 hour treks run exclusively from Sydney for the first five years…”

Interesting in that the business case has them operating out of Melbourne and Brisbane too!

It doesn't work as that pay rise is eaten by higher prices. You also run into a supply shortage of goods etc. Especially for those on the lower end of the wage spectrum the pay rise won't cover the increase in the cost of living.

The cost of living growth has been outstripping wage growth for years, for once companies might actually have to offer pay increase instead of importing cheaper labour.

There will be no significant change til after the federal election.

Governments plan for COVID. Win another term and so it out from there….

Sadly I think you are spot on. So the question now becomes - when will the election be held?

When the Miss H saga is far enough in the back of the kind of Joe public.

Constitutionally between August 2021 and May 2022.

It’s too close to call at the moment, so the government will probably want to stretch it out as along as possible to gain a bit more support and for voters to forget about the bungled vaccine rollout and other scandals.

It was strongly rumoured to be Oct/Nov this year but with the bungled rollout? Depends on how the next few months go. The government will still get a bit of a lift from Australians remembering how bad it was overseas last year and how we were relatively alright, but that still fade.

My thought is that they’ll keep the borders shut, deliver an election budget, tell Australians we’re the “envy of the world”, and the media assists with lots of pictures of unvaccinated third world countries and none of open vaccinated countries.

This isn't looking good
How many more billions will Mr Joyce demand from the Govt to keep afloat
He recently got $1.2 Billion didn't he ?

Difficult to see why the QF LH should be supported with tax-payer dollars

Remarkable how you can be extremely critical of other Australian airlines whilst demanding a billion plus in free cash

The Worlds greatest Airline CEO - QF have lost $1.8B since he has been there

The QF Hubris is all just a bit OTP , How about someone like the kind of guys AirNZ used to have (or still have as CEO)

A laid back local person , the shrieking buzzword dialogue can get a bit much

Australians have spoken by refusing a vaccination they don’t need an overseas airline .

Thats right. Why have an international airline when ppl don't want to travel., oh well what will AJ do now?

Early retirement to spend more time with the family?? ;)

I can’t imagine there is much incentive for him to stay. Those multi million dollar bonuses are dependent on metrics like share price which aren’t going to be able to be met for several years at least. Getting by on mere millions a year base pay versus 15 or 20 million a year with bonuses would wear pretty thin. We’ve all been there… lol.

So Short Haul facing the prospect of being stood down again, the same week it was "announced" in one of the Webinars the possibility ("SH will be considered") of outsourcing the 737 flying..and 4 A330's off to EFA...Mainline is screwed.

Latest advice is that is NOT happening next month

I missed the “announcement” of 4 A330s to EFA? Has that been announced? Or is it just a rumour?

Not sure how they’ll cover the post Covid network with four less airframes. Suspect that if they do decide to go down that road they’ll need load up on extra 787s to cover them.

Easy: expand NETWORK, COBHAM (717) and ALLIANCE ......that's how you reduce your cost.
Regarding Alliance 18 E190 are on their way.

Apparently QF Management are a little cranky with the Cobham pilots as their EA is much too expensive. Hence the massive base closures for them and constant battles with their allowances.

What we as pilots need to be doing is encouraging Network and Alliance pilots to negotiate hard and get their base salary up to a more respectable number. A320 pilots should not be less then Jetstar. F100 and E190 Pilots say 10% less then a 717 CAPT should be a target. By encouraging all companies to have a similar ‘per seat’ or per tonne cost as far as Pilot costs goes eliminates the ability for the company to have these mini battles amongst individual organisations.

Not sure if QF management is cranky with Cobham....those guys are still costing a lot less than mainline.
A capt at Network earns 185K and Alliance 154K. hard to compete against that don't you agree?
A.JOYCE is only looking at cost structure, nothing else.
Customers? well they don't care, they just want to pay as little as possible for their airfares.

with the number of unemployed pilots willing to work for ANY KIND OF SALARIES and the "COVID excuse"......I don't see anyone or union in a position to negociate anything, but I could be wrong

That is the sad part, in Australia where it only seems to go from bad to worse with "outbreaks" and lockdowns it is an even quicker race to the bottom than it used to be and believe me, the folks who call the shots are likely salivating at the bargaining power they hold right now when it comes to contracts and negotiations.

Out of interest, what is the difference in cost between an A330 crew and a B787 crew if they were to work an identical roster over 12 months?

No shortage of 787's available at short notice if required and also no reason they can't be configured in a higher density layout to closer match the A330-300.

about the same in mainline between the 330 and 787, not compare with EFA.
the initial comment mentioned 4 A330 possibly going to EFA (freighters)
Mainline could compensate the departure of 4 330 with Network, Alliance and Cobham, picking up the slack.

What goes around, comes around. The worm could turn pretty quickly in 18 months or so.

Ha ha, unemployed pilots will take ANY job on offer no matter what without consideration for how it will impact Qantas Mainline pilots. Qantas Mainline pilots don’t even try and support their own colleagues which is not unique to them by the way. We live I. An industry where mainline pilots advocate for the shutdown of Jetconnect, Jetstar OZ pilots advocate for shutting down Jetstar NZ so they can do the flying, we don’t care about fellow pilots in our own group of companies so why would anyone else.

Well said Ollie.

Dignity and self respect aren't part of the mainline pilots vocabulary.

Always ironic that the " Best of the Best " usually act in such a teenage way when it comes to their interactions with other group pilots.

Their antics are always good for a laugh however.

MCD

I may need to amend this law to include ‘all other pilot groups’ instead of just JQ.

MCD has an axe to grind?

It is quite an uninformed and baseless post. For me incorrectly or not, and it may change in the future, I don’t consider Jetconnect, Cobham, Network or Alliance employees my colleagues. I doubt Jetstar consider Jetstar NZ their colleagues either. The fact there is a star or a roo on the tail might pander to that illusion. At the same time I wish those that work there the best. It’s not their fault after all. We are all trying to do the job we are professionally trained to do and trying to survive under very challenging conditions. I will sacrifice and look after all of my Mainline family. History has shown I’m not alone with this attitude…the proof is there. With management pitting section against section you can’t be friends with everyone but I’m happy knowing I’m surrounded by people who care. There is plenty of self respect and dignity, but like I said, everyone draws a line in the sand somewhere and not everyone can be your brothers and sisters. So give me a break with all the Mainline shows no respect/dignity/support b#llsh*t. Get over it, and do the job you are privileged to have if you are flying at the moment.

Wow! there are some real turds here, I have never, or know of anyone in OZ that feels any animosity or disapproval for JQ NZ.
JQ will be just fine post covid, lets back back to QF post covid after all that is the thread title. .

Some serious projection goin' on that's for sure

really!!! Jetstar NZ are on a **** daily pay deal trying to make ends meet. When some Tasman flying comes along Jetstar Australia says no that’s our flying even though the Aussie A320 crew are fully stood up and in overtime. So much for the ANZAC spirit

I have never heard anyone in OZ saying "That's our Tasman flying"as you so infer. As for their pay deal, well NZ is another country after all, what ever has been done I'm sure is legal in that jurisdiction. This is a QF thread after all who would of thought JQ would take over.

Ask the AFAP about that.

I am a JQ NB FO in a base that operates trans Tasman. I have always said give as much to the Kiwi’s as humanly possibly and keep me well away from overtime!

I do miss the duty free though…:}