I'd love to be wrong but the recent history of QF (which to my mind predates Elaine) shows they will never do the 'right' thing when the cheaper option that screws everyone is available.

Even if it means holding the Govt of Australia and any others to ransom - see the shutdown. Wee Elaine is, after all, SUCH a BIG and IMPORTANT man.

Currently, as far as airlines go in Australia, they are in a pretty decent position to do just that. They are incompetent airline/business managers (though they would argue even more strongly now that they aren't) but they are very competent political managers and extremely adept at extracting cash for their own (personal) purposes. There is also a very strong overseas precedent of sacking anyone you can, that you must consider.

Comments like 'The FAAA are still in consultation about....' is a totally meaningless comment. How long did AIPA (to pick one example) have to sit through meetings of nothing month after month when record profits and a CEO getting $25m were in play?

To show my age and quote 'The Youmg Ones'; Qantas management are utter, UTTER BASTARDS. And totally incompetent business managers because they do NOT care about the company. They ONLY care about their OWN tenure and unbelievably lucrative salary package - which, I would like to point out, would not be replicated if they became redundant for any reason. Do not for a second think that anyone of junior management level and above will sacrifice a single dollar (or cent) of their own personal income to help the company (and far less, any employee). They simply don't understand the concept of company morale, nor what is the 'right' thing for the business. Qantas is nothing but a cash cow and anyone in management will sacrifice anyone else (not themselves, obviously) to ensure their personal financial survival.

Management know there will be a Govt backing for their own salary - as long as they cut costs. It's as clear to me (as it should be to anyone else) that Elaine and his management 'team' are worth the $50m++ to steer the company through this unprecedented period, but that doesn't leave much else for those left under them. The company is losing billions and existing on taxpayers funds. I just can't see very much money left for those doing the clearly minimal actual work... And ESPECIALLY (see comment above) those already marked for termination.

I guess that works with the Mon morning asx announcement. If true similar emails should be delivered to those in the office?

Might also be consultative?

Alan did say back in April if it drags into next year there is going to be considerable pressure on the balance sheet, essentially the business will be broke. It’s obviously more clear now that this is likely to be the case. International will obviously drag as far as 2022. Domestic is going to be very patchy for the next half thanks to Victoria.

Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.

We will find out on Friday won’t we?

Well let’s get some more detail on this announcement on Friday from those that seem to know on here lol. Are these redundancies voluntary? Are they compulsory? Are they for QAL or QCCA crew or both? Is it last on 1st off? What are the numbers?

If QF/JQ domestic come back to 60-80% capacity within the next 3-6 months, can this generate enough cash for the group carry on perpetually with the long haul fleet in mothballs and crews on stand down? Or is there still too much cash being bled to have this as a medium-long term solution?

I’d guess no ECAMS, LH struggles to make more than a small profit at the best of times, with it in mothballs it will bleed far too heavily for even Domestic to make it up. Monday 29th will be the release after the ASX announcement, there may be some guidelines for when some of the LH aircraft are planned to start flying again, but I’d suggest prepare for thousands, if not 10 thousands to be made redundant across the whole business. You only have to look at pretty much every Airline anywhere and they are cutting back between 25-40%, it isn’t going to be any different at QF.

60-80% is unrealistic if your talking group wide. Group level with International your talking 20-30% by Christmas. 50% Domestic might be realistic by December but it’s all just speculation. Nobody knows. If Victoria screws up again, then December becomes Easter.

Times like this I wish I didn’t agree with all the posts above, but unfortunately this forum is being rational and considered. It’s very sad to see my brothers and sisters in an industry we all love in dire straits because of the invisible enemy.

The other issue is you need to think in terms of yield or revenue rather than capacity.

All seats are not equal. 1 business pax (even full fare Y) MEL-BNE-MEL is higher yield than a family of 4 deeply discounted Y MEL-YBCG-MEL.

So the answer will depend on which pax come back faster

There has not been much fear spread around in terms of implications to the balance sheet, but I think it’s pretty clear, it’s going to be nasty. They can’t drag International along in the mud for the next three years, it will sink the whole operation.

Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.

Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.

A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.

Well looking at the Newsroom with flight schedules they are planning 65-70% of Domestic capacity by October, of course that’s just the current plan, International I doubt there will be much at all this year, it really depends on the destination countries and they handle their outbreaks. Regardless I think the requirement to self isolate incoming international passengers into Australia is going to be around for an extremely long time, years probably.

A quarter to half JQ domestic passengers are foreign tourists? Not in my experience, maybe 5-10%. Theres also the fact Tigerair aren’t coming back, so that’s 15 airframes less in the low cost domestic market.

Also, Aussies who would have otherwise travelled overseas going on holiday at home. Air New Zealand are seeing more demand to Queenstown domestically than this time last year. With a bit of luck (and the Melbourne situation being contained) we might be at that point in 2-3 months.

https://australianaviation.com.au/20...ity-from-2019/

Yes, there is no doubt a strong domestic market here in NZ. Ski fields and Queenstown hotel bookings in July are UP 5% on this time last year, Air NZ has added hundreds off flights and a couple of domestic cabin crew I know have had their redundancy notice cancelled. Kiwi’s spend $15 billion per year on overseas travel, they can’t do that now so even if a quarter of that is spent domestically then it won’t be all bad. Jetstar town hall last week said they expect Jetstar NZ to fly 100% domestic schedule in August. I think domestic in Australia and NZ could be quite vibrant, the question is how you deal with the lack of international.

AJ stated at the beginning of May that “we can continue like this until at least December 2021 if we had to”.

Any sudden need to offload staff is pure opportunism.

At the cost of $3 billion. That wouldn’t be business as usual January 2022 onwards.

I would think middle management and other BS jobs will go first. Aussies traveling domestic will be higher than normal as long as borders open, when NZ let us in and vice versa we will also have FiJi. Plenty of bums on seats for NB operations.

That’s the way, save my job but destroys everybody else.

Don’t worry, I’m sure there will be plenty of misery to go around.

When did I say throw 300+ colleagues under the bus?
WHAT I said was we have an EA that QF only agreed to a few months a go. Hell they pushed it!
Now they want to change it?
Infact they haven’t demanded anything yet. Everyone’s jumping to hand over conditions!
Why don’t we just wait and hear what they have to say at the end of the week?
I have ideas but I’m not going to offer them up before I hear what they have to say.

And everyone voted for it because the Sunrise Fleet HAD to be ordered by the end of March. Great to know those jets are on their way:):)

The only difference between Qantas and ‘everyone else’ is the size of Qantas domestic network compared to international. So whilst I can see international being paired back quite strongly for the next 12-18 months, I’d be surprised if there was much of an impact on mainline SH crew apart from staying on MGH for the foreseeable future once they get back to about 75% of pre COVID levels. Of course that 75% mark may not be until close to December, or as wheels down Correctly put it, much later if Victoria stuffs up this community transmission.

What to do about international the in the interim? Who freaking knows!

A lot of this comes down to a vaccine. If one of those gets up and going within the next 6-12 months the 12-18 months after that could be flat out.

Could be. But won’t. Read up on the Depression. We’ve got another 9 months until the financials of March ‘20 hit. It’s not going to be pretty - most in the Western world are sitting pretty (not crew) because stimulus is so far covering their lifestyles. Nice break to get those home Reno’s done and catch up on Netflix.That fun is ending very soon. Then what?

There aren’t even enough syringes in the world to administer vaccines - that’s aside from any nasty mutations or even developing and administering the thing.

Kung Flu is the gift that will keep on giving....

A safe and effective vaccine is conceivable given the huge $ being spent this time, and given the many independent efforts currently underway. But previous SARS coronavirus vaccine research failed (the vaccine appeared to be hazardous rather than protective to animals who were exposed to the SARS virus after the vaccine). So a vaccine (and any plans dependent on a vaccine) are no more than plausible at this very early stage. I don't think it is realistic to plan on a vaccine.

The economy is sick. Far sicker than many people suspect. Huge money is being invested in stock markets which have recovered quickly. However the stock markets are now totally disconnected from fundamentals in the real world economy. As V-jet said, it is all being propped up by stimulus. But that has to end at some stage.

I suspect COVID will be with us indefinitely. It is much less lethal than previously thought - perhaps 0.1% mortality in well people < 70 years. It can be controlled somewhat - at a price. But I doubt it can be completely contained. Some difficult compromises will need to be taken balancing the twin priorities of stimulating the economy and protecting the vulnerable.

There are multiple geopolitical threats. There is an unpredictable US election in 5 months. And there is the growing spectre of China applying economic pressure to influence Australia's political leaders.

So overall, volatility and risk are both off the scale.

Warren Buffett sold his airline stock. All of it. Including carriers which were majority domestic operations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...after-covid-19
https://www.businessinsider.com/amer...tt-exit-2020-6

With Qantas saying they will update by the end of June, this coincides with the 3 month requirement for redundancy in most agreements.....being July,August and September. Jobkeeper ends on 27 September and government is consistently said it will end then. Also what a reborn VA will consist of should be known by then. So I am thinking it could be 20-30% of Qf workforce affected in some way or the other! Hopefully no more than that!

Up to 9000 group wide, or 30ish%

Announcement tommorrow.

Had there been any email about this? I don’t have one about possible redundancies. Or is this pure speculation that there will be an announcement regarding lay offs.

No comms from Company, but a Manager has told me there will be a Group Wide announcement tomorrow which will include plans for up to 10,000 redundancies. Might just be a rumour but fits with the stock exchange announcement on Monday morning, my feeling is that narrow body domestic and Tasman operators will be largely untouched with the brunt coming in non operational and international wide body areas. Good luck everyone.

Well lets hope its a rumor, Surely the company and unions can come to a SLWOP agreement preserving jobs, after all we will be flying to Europe again one day.

I hope so as well, what I do know of Qantas though is their version of consultation is to listen to our Unions idea’s and then to do whatever they have decided to do.

I'm not sure AJ would be running a Town Hall the day they make an announcement such as that.

Such a large announcement such as that would require a ASX release before they announced it internally.

This stuff is fairly confidential outside a C line role so could be well off the mark.

It’s coming it will be brutal.

Once in a generation chance to pull out a large amount of cost in one hit. Everyone is doing it.

it’s coming tomorrow?

Friday I was told.

Dragon man has been on the money in the past...

enlighten us, any insight as to how many redundancies? Which work groups?
CR or VR?

I’m hearing quite dramatic fleet reduction crewmours inc a decent number of 330 and 737

Probably fits in with the rumour about standing up international Cabin Crew managers time deal with it. I doubt there will be 4 engined long haul flying for a few years, even when international does return it’ll be 787 and 330 only initially. There’s a lot of Cabin Crew needed to crew a 747 or 380 who won’t be needed for a few years.

International Pilots should escape this due to the long lead in times for training and a more complex structure of their agreements if crew are going to be moved. I would expect them to be stood down for the foreseeable future however.

Two days ago Mr LaSpina went to great lengths to debunk these redundancy rumours. His words were he would see CR as a failure and that’s not on the radar.

Now it is possible that there has been some seismic shift in thinking after 48 hours, and that all of you harbingers of doom are right all along, but, frankly, I reckon you’re all talking out of your collective arses.

How about we just wait until an announcement is made, if one is made at all? Then the doomsayers can gloat that their expert reading of the tea leaves from their cup of morning brew was correct all along. I hope those same prophets of doom will have the intestinal fortitude to admit they made the whole thing up if it turns out to be exactly what I expect it to be. Complete nonsense.

ASX website shows last announcement 2nd June. However rumours of mass layoffs are trickling into stock advisor sites.