Notice the advertising and how it’s targeted?

Jetstar - LCC/ Leisure traveller whom is very price sensitive - $20 airfares.

Qantas - Premium / Business traveller - Triple frequent flyer points.

Management know how to spark demand, and know where the yield is.

Just ask video libraries and bookshops how the internet changed their business model.

no one is saying there will be zero business travel, and it is a straw man argument to say anyone did.

But business travel will take a big hit. And business travel accounts for a large % of the margin in the airline industry where margins are very thin.

Warren Buffett has sold his airline stocks. All of them. How do you think he sees airline profitability going forward. Sure they have bounced off their lows. And if that gives you comfort, I guess I am happy for you. But the stock market is now crazy and totally disconnected from any fundamentals, with people gambling their redundancy payments on Robinhood.com. Like the shoeshine boy giving Joe Kennedy stock tips, this will end in tears. And worse.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....-2017-10%3famp

Plan accordingly.

"Just ask video libraries and bookshops how the internet changed their business model."

As an aside however, consider the current media attention being paid to breaches of a some well known entities' IT business platforms and you've got to wonder how long businesses will continue with online meetings after the first major business or government seriously confidential online hookup is hacked and then announced to the world. Most of the entities currently threatened with 'unknown sourced' intrusions already have reasonably robust defences and yet they are being hacked and breached with significant effect - to them anyway. Think Lion Nathan in recent days.

And they know how to go after market share. Triple frequent flyer points, just the thing to have erstwhile VA punter think twice about not only their next flight but the one after that also.

Anyone else hearing jobs to go before the 30th?

Look after each other.

Yes, lots, board meeting next Thursday. It will be ugly I suspect but maybe for the moment not for pilots.

Well, they have been saying we will know by the end of June.

Up to 10,000 is the figure I’m hearing being thrown around.

It would be a low move considering most would have budgeted on getting the jobkeeper allowance until October and that would essentially have to be turned off and those desperate to find immediate funds may miss the boat on that first super withdrawal available for this financial year.

I think board meeting was last Thursday. Brace!

If that’s a concern, grab the 10k now, stick it in the bank and, if you don’t need it, put it back as a non-concessional contribution. No biggy.

Take both lots of 10k out of super, this and next financial year, as said before if you don’t need it put it in later. And either way if you find out your redundant at the end of June there notice periods then CR payments, you won’t be left out in the woods within a few days financially, and hell you could just turn your Jobkeeper to Jobseeker either way.

Thanks lads,
Not something I think I have to do at this stage but a consideration for others as many guys are still confident we won’t see any CR.

Keep in mind anyone who lives with a partner who is employed is unlikely to get jobseeker as they haven’t removed the income test.

I am not sure pilots will see the brunt of CR initially. Pre-COVID they were so worried about the lack of pilot availability they were investing in setting up their own academy. They worked bloody hard to redeploy the 40 pilots left after Jetstar Regional to keep them in the group. They may offer some early retirement / VR packages but they may also offer Furlough options and LWOP as even if it takes 24 months to get back to reasonable pax numbers it will be cheaper to keep people attached to the group. Maybe it is wishful thinking, but the lead time to get a pilot recruited and on line is probably 12 months so they will be conscious of that. It looks as though Jetstar Japan will shortly be back to normal op’s, Jetstar NZ is said to be at 100% domestic capacity in August with the Tasman and Pacific coming soon and of course East Coast Oz should be back big time domestically when the states lift restrictions. The problem areas are wide body international, how they deal with that will be very interesting.

Hands are tied with the 787. Can’t sell them. I guess they could retire a large chunk of 747/333s and send them over the fence. That doesn’t help the guys at the star though.

With Tiger now out hopefully some growth opportunities across the market next year. 17 odd aircraft taken away that’s a lot of seats. Market share that they have held since 2007. Hopefully they can use the 787 pilot body back on domestic.

Alan will want his $40m a week back. Anything is possible I guess.

Well sadly at JQ , 78 crews could be stood down until next yr there is no possibility of the 78 being used domestically due infrastructure and airports where they could use stand off bays wouldn’t make using 78 viable. I’ve heard rumblings of SOs on the bottom could be let go.

320 crew in the smaller bases could be stood down till September or when demand dictates maybe one base could be closed but I don’t think any will be made redundant anytime soon. JQ have said from the start they will do what’s cheapest for the company and doing big payouts is more expensive than AL accruals for stood down pilots. JQ also did a massive recruitment drive last 4 yrs spending a lot of money the EBA has a type rating payback over 5yrs 6th yr you go on level 3 there is nothing in EBA to say if you leave inside that time you have to pay back the balance. So that would leave JQ with more than a redundancy bill.

It's a new world. How many times have we heard the word unprecedented?

Some quotes from the last webinar:

"no plans for any permanent changes" (Tino talking about SH)
"looking for other alternatives to the default position of making junior pilots redundant" (Tino)
"VR is an option, but not sure if it is possible" (Tino)
"individual VR packages are problematic" (HR)
"changes to the EBA" (Tino)

The email from AIPA pretty much confirms Tino's quotes, and which path they are headed. I suggest everyone plans accordingly.

They may be headed that way but any ‘changes to the EA‘ requires a Vote. VR does not require a Vote. Targeted VR is not problematic, it’s just not cheap! We have all the ME3 flying here, two US airlines from July plus the Chinese and Singaporeans. Apparently everyone is happy to lose money to do it. QF has JobKeeper funding to the tune of $75M month. Now it has been suggested that Crew remain stood down without accrual of entitlements?

And yet, Qantas was happy to do it as well while the government was funding it.

The only difference is the ME3 and US airlines are still being funded!

I don’t think it’s as easy as saying you are stood down and you don’t accrue any leave entitlements as it’s part of the FWA act and Would need an amendment to the act.

Great bunch of Guys & Gals! Well worth keeping them in the ranks! :ok::ok::ok:

I totally agree.

Ozbiggles I wasn’t talking about companies taking on debt, it was the government! QF and VA can’t get interest rates close to 0.5%, but the government can. VA would have been hard pressed to get any loan under around 5 % and also who the hell is going to offer them the loan? no one!
Because they were a basketcase to start with!

I was talking about both...there is no such thing as free money (or close to free). Unless you win powerball..
The taxpayer still has to pay it back long after the politicians who spent it have gone.

Agreed. Being stood down doesn’t permit QF to act carte blanche with our awards.

The EA covers this scenario very well. As mentioned, notice periods, CR payments and re employment when the time comes.
Let it be.
Very lucky to have it there.
They certainly had no qualms when it came time to cut off negotiations and put a ‘take it or leave it’ vote to the pilots earlier in the year.
Chances are they will have Buckley’s chance of a variation vote getting up.
It’s opportunistic to clear the ‘leave’ decks and pay no one at this time.
Just leave it at that.

Ah yes, throw 300+ colleagues under the bus + all those that will be demoted because of your vendetta against the company. You must be a joy to fly with

Well that is certainly one view. What is fiat money? If the US government can simply print whatever they like.The Australian government has done exactly the same thing. Creating funds out of nothing.
Quantitative Easing is essentially making money appear from nowhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/q...0200323-p54cvr

https://www.investopedia.com/article...ates-money.asp

So you are advocating we should do what Zimbabwe does?

from one of your sources.

Loss of backing[edit]

A fiat-money currency greatly loses its value should the issuing government or central bank either lose the ability to, or refuse to, further guarantee its value. The usual consequence is hyperinflation. Some examples where this has occurred are the Zimbabwean dollar, China in 1945 and the mark in the Weimar Republic in 1923.

So again there is no such thing as a free ride. Unless you consider hyperinflation a fun thing.

I made no such advocacy. I asked a question and pointed out that the USA and Australia have already done this and are doing it. I make no value judgement. This is the reality, not my opinion.

The key words in that quote however are either lose the ability to, or refuse to, further guarantee its value.

It always astounds me people expecting to hear anything new and exciting on these town halls when the first thing that happens after is people do pay for comment to the media. Interesting times ahead. No forced job losses would be a nirvana but here’s hoping.

Headline should really read ‘Airlines use COVID as reason to tear up existing agreements’.

“Please help us avoid redundancies by accepting a pay cut”. ​​​
Six months later...
“Really sorry but that didn’t work, we’re going to need to lay people off. By the way, your redundancy payout is based on the reduced T&C’s you agreed to six months ago”.


I’m unaware of an airline manager anywhere who wouldn’t sell his/her mother’s pacemaker.

As opposed to pilots??

I guess we're about to find out.

There’s no way the Qantas pilot group is going to agree to things like lower divisors and other means to protect jobs AND in the case of redundancy see the payout tied to those lower hours.

I’d prefer to see it the other way around. If we vote on a variation to the agreement to share the pain and preserve as many jobs as possible through things like flexible divisors I’d like to see greater CR redundancy provisions.

I could not agree more Keg.

However, the problem becomes short haul will be asked to make the majority of the concessions to share the pain. If the “4 holers” (sorry for the stupid reference, but this is how some w@nker referred to himself in a webinar) want to start flying again anytime soon, it has to be in short haul. Any change to MGH in short haul to bring in surplus long haul crew will in my opinion fail. Of interest, if the change was to bring all short haul crew back, I think that would be a different story.

Short haul has already taken a circa 34% pay drop to MGH (72 hrs vs 53.54). Long haul fleets when they were flying were still cruising along on 160/145 (B787 - at a high hourly rate) a little while ago - a reduction of a whopping 9% from their usual divisor of 175, even if it was only for 4 week rosters. Didn’t see too much talk about reducing divisors then.... If these guys/girls want to fly on the B737 when there is not enough flying for the current crews, they may need start making some sacrifices themselves.

International cabin crew managers stood up from Friday for 30 days. Redundancies to be announced on Friday.

Stood up to handle the redundancies?

I would assume so.