Wow!
Thanks for clearing that up...

I really hope I am proved wrong 34R

I suspect you are right.

There had already been a progressive transfer of risk to the individual eg casualisation of the workforce, more superannuation & less pension ....

COVID will dramatically accelerate this.

The world is going to look very different. It some ways, better maybe. It other ways, I fear worse.

But change is here. Embrace it, or it will embrace you.

Qantas have said over and over again that any RIN will be in accordance with the contract at an appropriate time.

The red herring is how long they can keep crews stood down for. Qantas thinks there is no limit. That is where the debate will be. Not about a CR by fleet.

Crikey, I’ve no objection to people disagreeing with me but ‘elder statesman’? That’s just a low blow, particularly when I’m still south of 50! :eek: :sad: :{:ok:

JQ officially planning on 787 being grounded until mid 2021, I’d imagine QF would be similar.

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.

STOP talking common sense!

That point has been raised multiple times by JQ 787 guys but has been flatly rejected by the company. Unlike QF, JQ don’t have the infrastructure set up for WB domestic operations. The fleet is being put into long term storage and the 787 pilots aren’t being put through the sim to maintain currency, unlike the NB pilots.

I think you’ll find there will be travel bubbles with Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong by the end of the year in addition to NZ and the Pacific Islands if not then very early next year. They’ll be huge pressure from business and tourism to get the things moving. Qf domestic will be busy with Virgin being a substantially smaller operation.

Makes more sense to run an A330 with a denser config than a 787. Unless the 787 is continuing on with range considerations then they’ll stay in bed until required.

Ozbiggles, interest rates are around 0.4% for the government at the moment, do you think taking on debt is bad?

It’s common sense money is free atm and you would be mad not to use it.

The debt has to be repaid at some stage, regardless of the interest rate. Free money? Really...best laugh all day. You are telling me in excess of 100 billion dollars debt is free? I think I will go borrow a free 100 million for me tomorrow.
Debt is Debt.
Why doesn’t Qantas borrow another 6 billon if it’s free?
Why doesn’t VA just borrow 6.2 Billion for free?

The shenanigans the Fed are getting away with are insane and make what we’re doing look a-ok, raising the dole a bit (should’ve been done years ago) and paying some people’s wages for 6 months. Adds to the debt but the alternative is mass homelessness and kids starving.

At least our government isn’t doing anything stupid like buying Virgins debt for face value.

The best advice of this thread. Those who fear change are going to struggle over the next several years.

Several years? All these random time lines. Honestly, no one has a clue when and what post covid will be like.

Or if there will even be a ‘post covid’

Been told 787 wont do domestic flying as the power by the hour deal will cost them a lot of money when its combined with high cycles(short sectors as in domestic flying)
330 much cheaper to operate on domestic sectors.

True. The future is unclear.

But if you don't plan your future, others will plan it for you. Guess what they have planned? Nothing good.

So plan for aviation to be very different for years to come
Short term = next few months = effectively shut down with very limited domestic operations
Medium term = next 6-12 months = reduced operations, with domestic recovering before international
Long term - a progressive and gradual return towards business as before. However there will be some permanent change. This has been too disruptive to our collective psychology and to the economy to expect there won't be a long term consequence. Major events change the world, and there is a "before" and an "after" COVID is such an event.

The medium term is the important thing to focus on right now. I expect
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). This will hit airline revenue. Hard. A minority of seats count for most of the profit.
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y.

Leisure V business:
Leisure will recover faster, but will be to different destinations. People will want to travel, and can't get the holiday experience by Zoom.
Business will be harder hit. Fewer conferences. For business meetings, the bean-counters and CEOs will be saying "Well, zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....." In addition to saving $, businesses will think about their liability and reduced productivity if an employee contracted COVID during work-related travel when there was a safer alternative.

Domestic V International
Domestic will obviously recover faster. But even domestic will be affected long term by reduced business travel - there will be reduced business travel between east coast cities, with less day trips for a 1 hour meeting
International business will also be hit hard.
Leisure is the market which will bounce back faster.
NZ will be an early one to open, and people will travel to NZ if that is where they can go.
South Pacific Islands will likely be early. These countries will miss the cruise ship industry, and will be keen to open their economies to tourists from safe destinations. So New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa.
Hawaii may be another viable destination. This will also be missing the cruise industry. Only 700 cases in total. Non-stop, people will decide they can wear a mask for 8 hours if they are the rules. Will be in high demand by tourists seeking more than just a sandy beach.
Bali and Singapore are possible early recoveries, depending on what unfolds there over the next few months.
Long haul will be slowest to recover. Family budgets have been hard hit, and many people won't have the money and won't be able to afford the time away. There will be some of course, but numbers will be way down. The exception will be families keen to reunite after a year or more of not being able to catch up.

So, that is the future I would plan for. And I expect that is the future the airlines are planning for.

Well it won't be covid holding aviation back, ACCC wants QF to play nice to let a competitor be given a fair go what a load of BS. Guess they won't acknowledge QF group has taken a massive financial hit and are in need of having to get revenue. At the end of the administration VA will have a company with billions at hand, should be open slather.

ACCC told to watch airlines to give Virgin Australia a chance

https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/...39d2?width=650The ACCC has been directed to monitor competition among domestic airlines over the next three years.

• Robyn Ironside

  
  Aviation Writer
  @ironsider
  https://i1.wp.com/pixel.tcog.cp1.new..._location=none

The federal government has ordered the competition watchdog to monitor domestic flights in Australia for the next three years in an effort to give a renewed Virgin Australia the best chance of succeeding.

A statement form Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Australia’s national interest was best served through having a sustainable, competitive aviation sector.

He said the direction would require the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to monitor prices, costs and profits in the domestic air passenger sector.

“A key matter covered will be the level of capacity the airlines are putting on each route and whether this is occurring in a way that may damage competition,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“The ACCC will release reports at least quarterly.”

ACCC Chairman Rod Sims welcomed the direction from government and the “opportunity to ensure competition in the domestic travel market at this time”.

He said the commission would be looking out for any early signs of damage to competition in the domestic airline industry which could harm the long-term interests of consumers.

“This information can then be quickly acted on by the ACCC and/or provided to the government,” said Mr Sims.

Mr Frydenberg indicated the move was a further example of the government’s support for the aviation industry as it navigated the coronavirus pandemic.

“This includes continuing to work constructively with the administrator in relation to the Virgin administration and supporting a market-based solution,” he said.

I wouldn’t stress over that, somehow what has been happening for the last decade is new news?
Anyway, If Qantas are happy chucking out $19 fares to everyone and everywhere they can’t be too hard up for cash. Although try finding one!

Seeing as you’ve openly stated you’re happy for qantas to solely be given financial assistance even if virgin is denied, I’m not surprised you dont like this. Why cease being a ******** now?

Hang together or hang separately. Your managers must be just loving this. Divide and conquer.

I would be surprised if I have stated that, more like I would of meant VA should be denied funding for the sole use of itself but funding given to Aviation equally and in proportion to the size of the company. Why should Joe and Jane Doe be made to pay for incompetent previous management?!

My problem with this article it’s just another level of the rubbish that Australia has, Australia is large enough for QF and VA to co-exist and have strong competition but if VA can’t manage their own well stiff! Also, Bain and Cyrus both keeping the current management well we all know what the definition of insanity is, good luck!

This is just based on those who work in office buildings, but feedback I’ve heard suggests Zoom isn’t the be all and end all of business communication. A lot of employees sick of talking with their colleagues on a screen all day long, and want to be back in a physical location together. Meetings aren’t as good online as they are in person, can’t pick up the personal communications, can’t detect body language, can’t have quick off the record chats with clients etc. We hear the same suggestion that online conferencing would replace business travel all the time, including post GFC but business travel always seems to return. Even in the age of technology being physically in front of people is the best way to do business.

If anything I’d expect leisure travel to be slightly more affected as holidays are one of the first things to be cut in a recession.

In terms of liability I’m sure in time contacting COVID on a business trip will be the same as contracting the flu on a business trip in terms of corporate liability.

A friend of mine from the corporate world told me his companies new policy is that anyone who goes on an plane trip (whether it be for business or leisure) will have to work from home for 14 days post trip. Just a small example, but could be an insight into the apprehension a lot of businesses have about putting their people on flights for the short to medium term.

You are telling me what the employee is wanting and what they are sick of. I am telling you what management and accounting and risk management are thinking. For the foreseeable future, business travel will be way down and only after a risk assessment. Even self-employed who can make up their own mind will think about the risk of shutting down for 14 days.

leisure will hold up better overall. There will be a cascade phenomenon. Some people will drop out of budget holidays, but they will be replaced by the next group up who now want a budget holiday. The tier above who have downgraded To budget will themselves be displaced by previous premium leisure.
people will still spend on holidays and travel. But they will mostly spend less than previously. And the destinations available will also be less expensive. So Fiji rather than Hawaii, Hawaii rather than Europe.

No. if you get flu on a trip, your partner does not have to stop work for 14 days and your kids are not excluded from school for 14 days.

The world has changed.

Here’s comment from a chair at the chamber of Commerce and Industry published in the SMH the other day:

It looks like he, as a representative of the business community, is desperate to get business travel back up again

Of course he is. Many travel / hotel / accommodation / travel agent groups are members of this organisation. So it is only right and appropriate he represent these interests. Otherwise why would they be members.

The real question however is whether thousands of small and large businesses will buy into this.

https://australianaviation.com.au/20...-out-in-hours/

Jetstar just sold 10,000 $19 seats in 4 hours, 70,000 by early afternoon.

fair to say people are ready to travel again.

Yep. But my guess is a very large % were leisure. People are sick of not travelling and sick of holidays at home.

Managers don’t really care whether employees are sick of no business travel. In fact, no travel has been a blessing to the financial bottom line.

Just the beginning really. With the NZ bubble not far off and Japan with the Olympics next year, Singapore and Hong Kong should have things well under control by years end, I think confidence and demand will return quicker then people think.

yeah, absolutely. It’s only really a reflection of the leisure market, the jury is still out on business travel.

I really hope they are proven wrong in the future but I think slats11 is pretty close to the money with his overall predictions....

Time will tell. The business owners I deal with daily think virtual meetings are a band aid and can’t wait to send their people in face to face.

Business has and will always be done face to face - rather than on the phone / zoom etc. We’ve had other means of communicating for decades and yet business still relies on the ability to travel to a meeting.

CV won’t change that.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting business travel will disappear completely, but it could definitely become less common. Yes, the technology has been available for sometime, but it’s only been recently that many business have been forced to use it and can now evaluate its merits.

Zoom meetings have their flaws, but so to does air travel. Packing, traffic to the airport, flight delays, the time incurred by the flight itself, waiting for bags, taxi out of airport, hotels and doing it all again to get home. The time/financial costs of business travel vs a simple log on to a zoom meeting will see many businesses reevaluate their business travel needs.

Plus we’re evaluating the technology associated with Skype/zoom meetings today, who knows how much better all of that will be in 3-5 years time.

Many a business deal is consumated over lunch or in the informal times between meetings, Skype or Zoom won't replace that.

very true, however, will the quarterly follow up meetings become 6 monthly, replacing every second meeting with zoom. I’m some cases no, but in others, perhaps yes.

Nor does it really facilitate supporting the non verbal communications, such as body language and mannerisms that form a significant part of human to human communication. It can be incredibly important in business.

I think skype and zoom will have a newfound place, but certainly will only replace a minimal component of business travel.