If you want to believe it's that easy to simply perform that action go ahead. There's significant training and operational line readiness issues now. You're talking about a group of people who haven't been in the particular aircraft for years and haven't been in an aircraft at all for what will probably be over 12 months. Whilst one pilot in those circumstances, away from aviation for years, could come back on line into an environment where their colleagues have been active on the fleet in the meantime, you're talking about retraining en masse a significant proportion of the fleet, to pilots who have been out of the loop for a long time. Not going to happen, if the company don't say no then CASA surely will.

That one I doubt. In 2014 (when the aviation industry didn't come to a halt and there was ample opportunity for those in the VR interest bracket to remain flying until retirement age, and the VR eligibility was limited to only 2 fleets) they still got around 60 applicants. Today there will be no opportunity at all for those on the 380 for a minimum 3 years, and on the 747 for an indeterminate number of years, to return to flying. They'll probably reach 200 with those two fleets alone, and there'll be a number of 330 and 787 pilots who want it as well. I've heard pilots as young as early to mid 50's from various fleets are seriously considering the package.

Good to see ‘special’ packages still find their way to you despite the Covid restrictions.

This persistent ideology is a fine example of when having some knowledge is far more dangerous than having none. Bush lawyering reaching new heights.

you left out the part where I said it isn't going to change the way you feel you have been or about to be treated

Covid is a disaster for aviation. Flt Ops management I think are doing a good job. If people are not preparing for drastic change now, I don’t know what situation could be more severe that would warrant action. If people want to blame others for the way they feel, that’s their choice. Most people are getting on with life best they can. I’m not busy lawyering with these observations.

It is unfortunate forums like these give a microphone to uninformed, inaccurate and speculative thinking.

Should it turn out you are correct, like picking a hundred bagger penny stock, I’d say a genuine ‘well done’.

My opinion which is born out of personal experience is aimed more at the over 50's and particularly the over 55's
You have to survive covid first.
If you survive as a recovered, you must be restored to pre-covid health.
Then you can think about going back to work in a couple of years.
Be aware, ask any unemployed 55 year old on the street, age discrimination is alive and well.

I agree with your statement about the forums, I don't believe I'm one of them.

In 2015 they failed to get the numbers they wanted, I know because I was called and offered it two weeks after it closed. Personally I don’t think they will get 196 I’m guessing 150/160 but who knows. As I understand it the company is now saying the payment of VR is depended upon the changes they want in the EA getting up. Lastly, thanks to the incompetence of Comrade Andrews in Victoria the companies cash flow projections have been blown up . The 40% domestic flying by July 31 and 80% by xmas I feel are not going to happen. So, I think we are looking at more redundancies through the whole group.

Every Stood down Pilot is that same position. Much retraining required for all. So many Ex SH pilots in LH now with thousands of 737 hours. A considerable amount newly trained to the 787. CASA is not going to ‘Stop this’ hypothetical outcome. I am pointing out that the cost issue TLS proclaims is a fallacy. Cheaper to CR a junior SH than a more senior LH. And the retraining can will be kicked well down the road into another fiscal year.

I sense some here may be under-estimating the scale of this economic shock. We have to go back at least 90 years to find something this big. Some data suggests significantly further back
https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-...c-19e8b22dad3c

Australia faces extra challenges against this global backdrop
1. In the 1920's, UK dominated Australia's trade. Today, it is China - and China is making it clear that it will bring economic pain to any country that criticises it.
2. Back then we had a diversified economy and were fairly self-reliant. The major parts of our economy today are
a) importing migrants (to keep wages low)
b) overseas "students" (often also with work rights) - gone for the foreseeable future
b) buying and selling houses to each other
c) iron ore - China is looking towards Brazil (building 4 ports for very large ore carriers that are too big for Australia, but the economy of scale will work for Brazil) and Africa
d) agriculture - less than previously, and already some limited export restrictions
e) financial services - which are being hard hit
3. We are living in a geopolitically complex area

Anyone thinking this is going to bounce back quickly is (I believe) seriously mistaken.

These 3 podcasts are well worth listening to.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...y-disposition/

Under NZ Law, AirNZ is not a SOE, an SOE requires 100% government ownership and would not be listed on the NZX or ASX. Yes the government did own 75% until the mid 2010s, until the government sold down its shareholding to around 50%. An SOE will require a Government minister to appoint the board and would report solely to the government, not to the public.

The main difference is that under NZ employment law, there is no stand down provisions, so any LWOP must be negotiated by the company and employees, otherwise employees must remain on full pay. The only stand down provisions are for factory workers who may have an annual stand down to cover maintenance periods, however such time periods of the stand down must be in the employment agreement and the pay rate applicability during that time is also stated, annual leave is not permitted to be used to cover the stand down, and stand downs are not permitted to be unpaid.

When it came to this stand down the QF group basically told its NZ based staff to take LWOP, or be made redundant. They weren’t the only Australian based company to try and pull that trick in NZ during the Covid situation. The courts have already decided for one company the agreement for LWOP with a threat of redundancy is illegal and full back pay must be paid with an extra harm payment of $12,000 per affected employee handed down.

Since the precedent has been made in the court, and MBIE have also fined that company just over $1.2M on top of the court directed costs, it will be interesting to see how the unions deal with the QF group. I understand that MBIE are taking a very hard line with companies who fail to comply with NZ employment law during this time.

Fantastic recommendation. Thanks!

One of the problems with any group is confirmation bias. Everyone in the group sees things the same way and confirms each other’s perspective.

Airline pilots are young (with lots of productive years ahead of them) or older (on well above median incomes). This means the opinions of the group may not be generalisable to wider society.

This is an overview of what is happening (and therefore what is likely to happen next). It’s not pretty.

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/...-soup-to-nuts/

Even after we get the virus under control, the economy will be very subdued for a long time.

In my mid-50’s, I am now re-evaluating the last 10 years of my career. Lots of thinking to do.

If that's from 'official' sources then it's probably because most are still evaluating the estimate with their accountants and the like. Two weeks is not a long time to evaluate the package if your professional help can't fit you in until this week due to their workload. Many are probably leaving the final decision until late this week when they have digested all of the many ramifications of accepting or rejecting the offer.
If it's from anecdotal sources, I'm hearing the opposite.

was that 196 before Vic hard lock down and before QLD shut for an undetermined time? I would think QF and JQ will be crunching some numbers now and it will not be pretty. Even Domestic will struggle now into the new year as unemployment sky rockets in Victoria.

The timeline for the fleet requirements and employment numbers, as announced openly to the ASX in which you’re all free to read, is for a 3 year recovery plan, with the surplus numbers based on the predicted network in mid 2022, a full 2 years away. So unless they’re changing plans on what’s happening beyond 2/3 years the current numbers apply. If there’s any interim change in requirements domestically then stand downs will manage that problem, and no further surplus is forecast. I don’t think anyone expects domestic travel restrictions to exist in 2 years.

4-6 months after full lockdowns other nations have resumed quite substantial parts of domestic networks, it will follow suit in Australia too.

Well said!!

I like your optimism. International we already know they won’t be going for a long time. My concern is these latest restriction into QLD with no known easing how will that affect the 3yr plan on domestic crew number.

At least with the latest out of Victoria they have given a date wether they can stick to it remains to be seen.

All 196 are from LongHaul anyway, so I’m not sure a slowdown in the domestic ramp up will effect it much.

Worth a read.
Embrace change, or it will embrace you

The structural changes of COVID-19
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...s-of-covid-19/

Almost all nations that had lockdowns in March eased them June/July. 3-4 months.

Our ongoing list of how countries are reopening, and which ones remain under lockdown

So whilst we may not know the exact date life will return to normal in Victoria and when something resembling a familiar domestic network will resume, I’m fairly confident that the time interval will be measured in months, not years.