6 are re-furbed and I think some of them have the 12 year check also. Not sure how many

I’m not sure if the gear needs to be replaced or just needs to be swung on the ground before it can be put back into service. It probably means a gear down hop across the hills from Victorville to LAX when the time comes to get it going again. The good news is that will count as a recency sector to get someone back up to speed.

Simple Flying is reporting "Qantas CEO Refuses To Rule Out The A380’s Return"
----- quote -----
Speaking today at EuroControl‘s Aviation StraightTalk Live, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce refused to rule out a return to service for the Australian flag carrier’s A380 fleet. He stated “We do think, if you look at the Qantas network, there are going to be opportunities to deploy those aircraft.”
----- end quote -----
So he's saying that some of them might come back.

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?

IN theory, yes but in practice, no. You can't stand down people forever and effectively starve them out of the business. At some point, someone will put forward a constructive dismissal claim against QF and will probably succeed. When that happens, QF will have no choice but to make these positions redundant and pay out the affected staff.

Precisely.

I think Qantas are trying to ‘run down the clock’ here. By deferring the announcement on the fate of the A380, they are hoping to keep the crew stood down under the assumption that they’re coming back someday.

My gut feeling? The A380 isn’t coming back, and a RIN will be run when the demise of the A380 is announced in 2023.

There won't be any retraining of A380/747 crew to other types , displacements of those less senior on 330/787 - it won't happen

There is a lot of luck that as to where one is placed when Covid hit , those who just upgraded to SH lhs/rhs win

The professional SO/FO cohorts on LH lose , especially those on the 380/747

Don't think CR will come to those at top of LH list on 380 etc, there aren't going to be any 100 week payouts

Possibly another VR , that will be exactly the same as last time

Maybe a CR from bottom of list before August this year , won't affect those who took lwop - that's 250 there

Coupled with retirements , loss of medical , VR that will get numbers down to somewhere where they need to be

International at zero % right now & will likely be same number in 12 months

Very challenging & unfortunate for everyone but if Brendan Murphy says he doesn't like to predict more than three
months out , how an earth is anyone at QF going to know more than Murphy ?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Please don’t feed the troll.

There is currently a globally declared pandemic in full flight through most of the world. Medical and political thought indicates that international travel is dead for 2021 at least. The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment. They may need to read the room.

Which rooms are you referring to? The rooms in QCC full of managers and office workers on full pay? Or the rooms in the terminal which are now filled with outsourced workers? Perhaps you might be referring to the flight training rooms at Network, which are full of new hire short haul crew while mainline pilots are stood down unpaid?

I think the new Exec at AIPA will be more than capable of reading the room just fine. Hell, they may even listen to the room full of other CoM members.

They really don’t have any options. EBA negotiations are years away. They can attempt to challenge the legal status of the stand downs, but the ALAEA tried and failed. Courts found stand downs can occur until the pandemic is over.

What else can they do, pressure the government for more assistance? Run a media campaign? Any unauthorised industrial action will be met with a ton of bricks from a conservative government and business oriented FWA.

When is the pandemic “over”? Please do tell!

At some point between now and then, there needs to be a gradual return to full or part-time employment for all QF pilots. It’s not a sudden flick of a switch.

And the longer the story (possibly already thought to be a fiction) that the A380 will be back can be run, the longer the expensive effects of the RIN can be averted

When it no longer qualifies as one. It’s fluid, depends on levels of strain of health systems, amount of restrictions on movement, levels of immunisation etc. On an international scale it won’t be until sufficient levels of immunisation are reached, the situation is mixed, even some first world countries haven’t immunised to a great extent.

It’s not just the status of the pandemic, the Federal Court in the ALAEA case found four factors which triggered the stand downs:

(i) the collapse in passenger travel;
(ii) measures implemented domestically and internationally to restrict movement;
(iii) the increasing concern that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be sustained; and
(iv) uncertainty as to how long the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would last,

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

What rubbish - pre pandemic, aviation was in a boom time - billion dollar profits etc. Can’t tell me any court in the land would say until that returns, stand downs are justified / legal.

Getting a little tired of the rhetoric.

wish there was a like button

If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and it’ll be a moot point anyway.

They will keep stand downs ongoing until they feel like it, that’s the unfortunate truth. So if your on a Longhaul fleet 3 more years until constant Stand up. You might not agree to it but unless your union challenges it that’s what will happen! Meanwhile contract companies will employ to take Domestic Services 😂

You clearly haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in short haul.

We saw in November and December that demand returned very quickly. Of course the snap border closures just prior to Christmas have had an adverse impact on sentiment with people concerned they’ll be locked out of their state with only hours notice. Those sorts of things are still within what FWA have said are legit reasons for stand down.

Internationally a post vaccine world with open borders is a very different context to what is occurring domestically at the moment.

As an aside I think the forecast is for all 737 crew to be stood up by about April/ May? (Dependent on state borders remaining open of course). Not sure. Missed that webinar earlier in the week.

The real test will be school holidays March/April hopefully the vaccine roll out is in full swing. The issue at the moment is confidence, there is none. JQ seen demand sky rocket in Nov/Dec now everything is open again the traveling public are sitting on their hands and the schedule is the same with no increase in sight.

All the talk about stand up, being busy again is all a dream at the moment, vaccine needs to start happening but I fear it could be to late for some. CR is sure to happen at QF, JQ and soon wether from the top middle or bottom I don’t know but it’s going to happen.

Initial forecast for all crew stood up was Sep 2020, then Dec 2020, then Feb 2021 now April/ May 2021. There's a pattern developing here and with ongoing quarantine failures, border closures and now the destruction of traveller confidence from repeated, no-notice border closures, I don't see it changing anytime soon.

Yeah , but show me where he’s wrong .

My money is on some limited international travel around July when most Aussies will have had the vaccine. Allowing vaccinated travellers with negative COVID test results in and out of Australia will probably be an acceptable risk if data gathered over the next few months provides good news. It won't be back to normal, a handful of detinations with smaller aircraft at best but hopefully there will be a start.

Australia can afford to wait and see as it is less dependant on international travellers than countries such as Thailand. It can sit in isolation at the end of the world as it has done for thousands of years and watch while other countries take the first steps.

Tourism is (was) Australia's fourth largest export accounting for just over 8% of all export earnings before everything went south. It even overtook coal for a while there. This may become apparent at the end of March. The theory that we can 'afford to wait' is undone every time we shut down a whole state for a single case. People who haven't had their lives inconvenienced by more than a mask and working from home, which is most, would probably agree with you though. I guess that's the PR problem the rest of us have.

Tourism in 2019 made up 3.1% of Australia’s GDP and there were 9.4 million international visitors, Bangkok had nearly 23 million. To some extent, international arrivals have been replaced by domestic tourists unable to travel overseas however they don’t spend as much money or stay as long. With Australia being a long way from anywhere and relatively expensive to get to, those who visit tend to be higher yielding tourists.

Undoubtedly, COVID is many times worse than the pilots strike of 1989, however Australia is a relatively wealthy country with a high degree of self sufficiency and is better placed to isolate itself. Places such as Phuket and Bali are totally dependent on international visitors and the effects have been devastating. Businesses and hotels have been closing down en mass and the streets are like a ghost town. There are few replacement jobs available for those affected, and they were living close to the breadline anyway. Thailand and Indonesia can’t afford a comprehensive welfare system and the situation is dire.

Australia will probably be one of the last places to open up.

Krismiller,
Alice Springs, Cairns and the Gold Coast are almost completely dependant on tourism. When there is no tourism there is no economy. Wealthy country or not its not like Sydney where you can probably find alternative employment.

Getting unemployment may keep you from starving but it won't help a business stay afloat. There seems to be a belief that when the tourists return everything will go back to normal. Many hotels will not reopen and nor will many small businesses. At least 6 local businesses near me in suburban Melbourne remained closed after lockdown and we have never had to rely tourism at all. How will a tourist dependant business cope?

The USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated by mid year and International travel between them (and many popular tourist destination in Asia) should be near 50% of pre covid numbers.

Im not saying Australia should throw its doors open right now but you must start vaccinating soon to have any hope of being ready for the recovery. I fear the hide away mentality will cost Australia dearly in the long term when people decide to travel to other places instead.

Climb150......I don’t know how you get the view that the USA and Europe will be fully vaccinated ​​​​​​ by mid year???

When I say fully vaccinated I mean everyone who wants one gets one. The Australian govt thinks that vaccinating half the population is sufficient so maybe only half is full? When I said Europe I meant Western Europe. Usa vaccinated 23 million people in the last 4 weeks and the rate of vaccinations is increasing rapidly. The UK has vaccinated 10 million people in 8 weeks, France and Germany about 2 million a piece.

Australian, with a population of 25 million has had 900 COVID deaths.
UK, with a population of 66 million has had 111 000.
USA, with a population of 328 million has had 462 000.

Australia locked down early and tightly, where as the USA/UK had partial lockdowns and some restrictions which were enforced to varying degrees. The results speak for themselves. The UK is back on lockdown for the third time and vaccination is a race against time to reduce the spiraling death toll. Australian has had hotspots and flare ups but life goes on.

One of the best examples of coping with a pandemic is Singapore which has a population of 6 million yet only suffered 29 deaths. The city state locked down hard and regulations were enforced with a draconian efficiency which would have put the Gestapo to shame. However this strategy worked, though it might not be acceptable in a liberal western democracy with a strong emphasis on individual rights.

Hopefully borders can start to open around mid year when sufficient numbers of people have been vaccinated and the pandemic downgrades to an epidemic.

The Economist Intelligence Unit has made predictions regarding vaccination levels.

https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countr...irus-vaccines/

Having people in wealthy countries vaccinated is what will have most effect on the recovery. To put it bluntly, having Europeans, Japanese and Americans able to travel will speed up the opening of borders. Vaccinating people in developing countries who don’t travel anyway will have least effect.

Looking at the map in the link, important markets for Australia could be available towards the end of this year with an increasing number next year.

I think this pandemic will be around for a few more years before it is downgraded to an epidemic......the whole world is involved and to think that this will happen by mid year....is a bit of wishful thinking!!

According to Bloomberg, it will take a further 7 years for the world to return to the same freedoms we had pre-covid given the current expected rates of vaccination. Obviously elements of travel and tourism will return in the shorter term but being realistic it will be years for all past Qantas markets to be available. Greg Foran started yesterday it will take a MINIMUM of 10 years from now for Air NZ to reach its pre-covid size.

Most of QF's international destinations are are in countries which are expected to have widespread vaccine coverage by mid next year and Australia will be seen as a safe destination. Having large parts of Africa, South America and Central Asia unvaccinated won't make much difference. Europe - USA travel could resume later this year with Australia added soon afterwards. Direct flights from the east coast to the US are possible and SIN/HKG will be safe stops en route to Europe.

Travel bubbles proved too fragile but vaccine bubbles might be possible.

So exactly which unproven, untested, protocol minimised vaccine are we talking about that's going to sort out the virus in one mighty stroke?
From which previously and not so long ago pox riden countries, using the above various and different vaccines, will Australia accept travellers from?

What will be the requirements on arrival - a test/no test, quarantining short term or long term, you have a certificate (real or forged, can you tell the difference?) so just walk out of the terminal and be a tourist?

What happens when a new variant pops up that those already allowed into the country may have?
Sorry, questioned already answered - the magic, untested, infallible vaccines will take care of that....until they don't.
However you view it, whether luck or better judgement Oz overall has come through better than many other countries/continents and that's just going to be compromised and thrown away because of these "magical vaccines".

My bewilderment level at those who believe (wish?) for any significant International opening by the end of the year varies between wishful thinking to delusional.
F**k I hope I'm wrong!

That article in particular I believe is talking about if current rates were to be maintained, not Expected rates. Current rates won't be maintained, as bureaucracy, manufacturing and distribution issues are sorted through the pace will no doubt pick up, most particularly in Western Countries.
From the article: "With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace..."

It'll be a little while before we are back to normal but the catastrophism is unnecessary (though not unexpected from the press these days), and unhelpful to those who might be having a hard time of things. In a separate article Bloomberg is talking of a return to international travel in 2023, so really, they have no idea and are trying to sell newspapers.

Things won't be back to the pre-pandemic normal quickly, but provided the emerging evidence from the Israeli vaccine experience is replicated across the rest of the world, the probability should be they will start improving soon.

The vaccines aren’t untested, they’ve gone through the same strict phase trials as any other vaccine with the usual gaps due to the need to beg for funding for each trial overcome by the massive amount of funding injected into the development process.

There’s clear real world data now proving the vaccine is effective and dramatically reducing the effects of the virus.

The CMO last week hinted at a return to international travel in the second half of this year. Whilst the company’s July 1 prediction may be a bit premature, it may not be far from the truth.

QF are in a much better position than EK. A substantial part of EKs route network is badly affected by COVID, will be delayed in getting the vaccine and DXB isn’t a virus free transit stop. Also, their aircraft are too big for the numbers of pax that will be traveling initially.

If the vaccine proves effective, direct USA flights could resume and Singapore is a safe en route stop for London. Japan and South Korea could be available around the end of the year. China might be possible with restrictions. The B787 and A330 are well suited to the lower numbers travelling.

Australia has coped well with COVID and with much of the world likely to remain isolated, it could be an attractive destination for vaccinated travellers from wealthy countries.

The next few months are important in determining how effective the vaccines are and what they actually do. The holy grail is one that prevents infection and transmission. We will find out how long they are effective for and if they protect against the new variants.

I’m now vaccinated and expect this to be an annual event for the foreseeable future. Next years dose will almost certainly be improved as new data becomes available.

COVID isn’t going away anytime soon, but it can be brought down to a manageable level like AIDS has been.

Before Sunfish too. He won’t be happy.

Good luck !

Article about yesterday’s events:

The stress of the long-running COVID-19 crisis has taken its toll on the Qantas pilots’ union, with the entire executive resigning en masse after learning of moves to replace them.

It’s understood the Australian and International Pilots Association executive was targeted by their own committee of management, after growing discontent among members.

The problems stemmed from dissatisfaction with the executive’s handling of the long haul enterprise agreement and uncertainty over hundreds of pilots’ jobs in the pandemic.

A380 captain Murray Butt was installed as the new AIPA president, just over two years after he was replaced in the top job by 737 pilot Mark Sedgwick.
Captain Butt said there was much concern about the previous executive’s handling of the long haul pay deal, that saw Qantas go over AIPA’s head to put an offer directly to pilots last year.

“(Pilots) had to make a decision based on the offer of backpay which for a lot of them was a big consideration given the stand downs that were occurring at that time,” Capt Butt said.

“As a result the enterprise agreement was endorsed quite strongly. We will never know if that was out of satisfaction with the deal.”

He admitted the stress of the current pandemic was taking its toll on many pilots, with A380 pilots in particular unsure of when they would work again.
Although Qantas Group chief executive Alan Joyce has insisted the superjumbos will return to service, that was unlikely to occur until demand returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, which could be many years away.

It was perhaps not surprising then that the majority of the new AIPA executive, were A380 pilots, including Captain Butt who has gone to work driving buses since COVID-19 struck.

“There is a greater presence of A380 pilots,” Captain Butt conceded.

“They have a greater motivation than anybody to ensure the best outcomes of any talks we have with Qantas going forward.”

As a first step, Captain Butt said AIPA wanted to bring a number of issues to a head with Qantas so pilots could make a decision on their futures.

“As a first step, we want to get a better understanding of where Qantas would like this to go, the different plans they’re examining at the moment so that we can come up with something that’s of benefit to the pilots and the airlines,” he said.

“They obviously have greater information of their capital needs, the aircraft requirements, the forward bookings – information that’s not readily available to pilots.”

The “changing of the guard” within AIPA was still being digested by many Qantas pilots on Tuesday with one expressing his disappointment at the upheaval.

Another pilot, who did not want to be named, said members of the new executive had deliberately set out to destabilise Mr Sedgwick and his team, with a sometimes “vile” campaign.

“Many of them were advocating postponing the long haul enterprise agreement vote in March last year,” said the pilot.

“What a complete debacle that would have been now to still have that EA open.”

As well as Captain Butt, the new line-up included two former executives involved in the industrial campaign that led to Qantas being grounded in 2011.

Former president Barry Jackson and former vice-president David Backhouse gained a reputation for their hardball style but the pilot questioned if that was suited to 2021.

“Hopefully they’ve learned something from that experience,” said the pilot.