Send a thank you card to Dan & the gang who have now botched HQ for a second time & made redundancies a much more real possibility
At the very least put domestic back by six months

You can rest easy that the Vict Govt are now going to ensure that the guest are now made fully informed not to use their nebulisers with an engaging & socially comforting with diversity respected pretty please

BA A380 Pilots are on furlough with 80% base pay. Qantas have used this crisis to totally screw their staff, the frustration is there is no ‘plan’ to give people a bit of certain going forward.

Isnt this the UK Gov's furlough scheme actually paying this, the same as Jobkeeper here. I cant see BA continuing to pay stood down staff once that scheme ends.

It will be interesting to see what happens to QF’s cashflow when jobkeeper ends and a lot of pilots start taking leave.

This article gives some hope for the future of the A380 with QF.

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-airb...0-makes-sense/

I don't know if it was the terrible condition of the QF A380 interior that made my two flights on a Q 380 so bad (broken seat back entertainment, power outlets not working, seats that don't recline or recline straight into the lap of person behind you) or the terrible passengers on board. You know, the ones who they keep serving alcohol too even though they are clearly intoxicated?

The Qantas international product had gotten so bad pre covid that I know people who would fly to the USA or UK via just about anywhere to avoid Qantas. AJ should focus more on actually keeping customers than putting out fluffy press releases.

Joyce’s comments to media are always pitched with an aim, even to the extent of disinformation - they are rarely truthful. Therefore the conclusions in that article can’t be believed.

There’s no doubt that keeping the possibility of the A380’s returning to service allows the airline to keep the A380 pilots stood down indefinitely without triggering the RIN process, as detailed in the award.

^^^^^^
This

Beyond the international borders opening the decision to not fly the 380 becomes a commercial decision and therefor a surplus of numbers on that fleet to be actioned as such. That is also in the award. Don't be fooled the company is seeking a variation to min guarantee due to kindness to get others back in seats.
They know dam well they won't be able to keep crews stood down for an excessive period of time so probably have concluded its better to pay them less on a variation on other fleets than to pay full 380 MGH to stay at home and do nothing. Which makes sense.

That’s not how IR law works - can’t be stood down indefinitely- when the border opens up QF know they have to stand everybody up. They may choose to make some redundant, but stand them up they will...

Exactly right. QF know this is coming up pretty soon.

Define ‘pretty soon’? When do you expect all border restrictions to be lifted?

QF is preparing to fly to many destinations before all restrictions are lifted. I’m not sure that helps the A380 drivers in the short term.

The real question re EA variations is whether you can convince A330 F/Os to accommodate an extra 80 A380 F/Os onto their type (about an extra 1/3 of the establishment) in return for 1/3 reduced MGH. A big ask!

That said, my gut tells me that the A380’s return would be only about 6 months after the A330 and 787 fleets are fully back. Cheaper to just pay the A380 crew for those 6 months that train them across and then back again.

So management have consistently stated that border openings are not the trigger for standing up all crew. Domestic borders have been open at various stages during this time and still stand downs have been enacted, even amongst crew solely flying within one state.

The Fair Work Ombudsman has stated this:

Employers may be able to stand their employees down during the coronavirus outbreak for various reasons, including when there's a stoppage of work due to lack of supply for which the employer can't be held responsible.

I'm not saying this is how is should be. But this is what the powers that be are are saying. Management could change their mind and choose to stand up crew before there is useful work for all, but that's their decision to make. The ALAEA took management to the Federal Court over stand downs and lost, the Court finding stand downs were enacted due to the collapse in passenger travel and concern that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be sustained, in addition to movement restrictions.

Then when the border is opened it won't be fully open like in January 2020 immediately. There'll be restrictions on entry from some countries, vaccination requirements, possible isolation and testing requirements etc for several years that will be argued are preventing useful work outside of the company's control.

The new AIPA will probably challenge stand downs legally again, will they be successful? I wouldn't put my money on it.

Imagine the training bill?
Would AJ like it if he wanted to get the A380’s back and Dick says no can do, they’re all trained up on the 330?
OK train ‘em all up again.
As Keg said, better to keep them there. ....and pay them a MGH of 100 hours.

Fair Deal Murray?

Maybe the most simple and cost effective way for Qantas moving forward is to announce the retirement of the A380.....then just follow the EA with the following RIN. Not many airlines are keeping the A380’s. Also, maybe time to order those A350’s that AJ likes so much! With many cancelled or delayed orders, availability shouldn’t be an issue.

“The new AIPA will probably challenge stand downs legally again, will they be successful?”

The new AIPA, which really the old AIPA from previous years, didn’t win any court cases over about a 6 year period, what makes you think the same people have acquired the skills to pick which court cases to run.

By second half of this year.

Vaccine doing a good job, case numbers down approx 30-40% in the worst countries (with a few exceptions) in the last 21 days or so. Those numbers will only
improve as momentum builds.

No Chance! Just watched Q&A with three of the most eminent epidemiologists in Australia. Quarantine will be around until the end of next year, mostly because of the poor vaccination rates and procedures in other countries.

By second half as in by July? Or ‘in’ the second half meaning perhaps October- December? If you’re right the A380 is back in business within 6 months of that occurring.

With an Aussie populace almost fully vaccinated by Christmas 2021 and similar occurring in the UK and the USA there is no way the public will put up with an additional 12 months of locked borders and quarantine.

Would these be the same epidemiologists who predicted massive first and second and third waves and how allowing gatherings in NSW at Christmas would see thousands of cases by early January? The same ones that claimed the cricket at the SCG was going to be the mother of all super spreaders?

Aah no, end of 2022. Nick Coatsworth, Tony Blakely and Sharon Lewin. At every point in this pandemic the optimistic timelines that people here have put forward have invariably proved wrong.

I hope I’m wrong but I disagree with this statement entirely. Scomo has realised he has a problem. His language around the “risk matrix” after national cabinet last Friday, and the appointment of the Secretary of Dept of PM and Cabinet to plot a way forward post vaccination, confirms it. The problem is this. COVID has been demonised in Australia to the point - rightly or wrongly - that the Australian public now demand zero cases. Australians have repeatedly shown a remarkable willingness to comply with whatever has been demanded of them to drive cases (cases, not deaths or hospitalisations) to zero. Election results in QLD and (soon to be, probably) WA will confirm it. It’s the post 9/11 “who do you trust to keep you safe?” environment all over again.

If border restrictions are lifted post vaccination, and infected people introduced in to the broader community, case numbers will increase. People will get sick. Some will go to hospital and some will probably die. Governments will need to change the narrative around COVID so that people are willing to accept some illness and sadly, probably, some deaths.

Are state governments willing to do that? How will they do that? Damned if I know. In the US and UK their populations have become so immune to daily deaths in the thousands that they won’t blink if people are dying in the hundreds. It will be considered a triumph. How would Australians handle perhaps tens of deaths a day?

It’s a dastardly conundrum and one the federal and state governments will need to navigate if we are any chance of ever getting state, let alone international, borders open again.

QANTAS’s language around domestic ops is now that flying in the 2nd half of the year to “almost” pre-COVID block hours. That means 737 pilots might be back at work some time before Christmas. I seem to remember a base manager telling me in June 2020 I’d be back at work by September, yet here I am. 2nd half of the year, best case July = 16 months stand down. December = 22 months, assuming they’re right this time, which they haven’t been yet.

This ^^ :D

The appetite for risk in this country is so low, that I’m surprised people even get in their cars anymore or cross a busy street.

The generation that have had OHS/WHS/PPE rammed down their throats for years is now calling the shots!

I just watched the program, you're being hyperbolic. One speaker said it may last until to the end of next year, although she thought it will last until the end of this year. Importantly quarantine would change depending on risk, it would change taking into consideration of where returnees came from, it may be done at home, it won't be the same as it is now. And most importantly it'll be altered as the vaccine is rolled out, the further it rolls out the more quarantine arrangements will change.

What the vaccine does is the critical factor here, if it stops someone getting COVID and stops them spreading it then there is no reason why the borders couldn’t open. If it only stops someone from getting sick but still allows transmission, then a very high percentage of the Australian population will need to have had the jab before travel can resume.

As mass vaccination has only recently started, more time is needed to study the results.

I'm going to just repeat a post I made last month about that point, I think it's still relevant:

We have a vaccine coming that will take the steam out of the health crisis. This vaccine has been developed safely at an unprecedented speed due to the amount of resources put into development. At the start of the pandemic I read best case scenario was end of 2021, so the fact members of the public were receiving Covid vaccinations in December 2020 is a testament to the knowledge and dedication of those medical scientists. It's come so quick that our own government has been able to bring our vaccination plan start date forward to next month, but has probably been caught on the back foot because of it's speed.

In terms of priority amongst all governments now would be containment of current outbreaks in Australia, then reducing risk for inbound international travelers. Once that is done then the vaccine plan comes in to effect, thought first of all needs to be given to which order various groups will receive it, then how it will be distributed, transport, vaccination sites and staff, an knowledge campaign to educate Australians on how to get the vaccine. Along with all the other functions of government at the time. So I can forgive the government if their number one priority right now isn't loudly shouting "Don't worry once we all get vaccinated and there's still some cases!" There's a lot of other higher priorities now, especially since the vaccine rollout is being expedited.

That type of messaging is probably best left towards the end of the vaccine program rather than the start. If people get complacent with messaging that a few cases aren't a problem then the things that are still required at the moment like hygiene, social distancing, app check ins etc may become lax.

We can see some indication of what future messaging will look like when we get to this stage from this Federal Health Department document:

Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Page 45 under the Standown Stage - Public Messaging heading. Plans that will be implemented include "Advise of the commencement of transition to normal arrangements and how this will be managed", "Coordinate public messaging through media networks", "Notify the public that services will transition to normal arrangements and the reason for this" and "Provide the media with access to information regarding the change of the status of disease spread and the transition of the response". That last point will be crucial to ensure the media don't continue to portray low numbers of cases as a serious health threat as it is now. This messaging is the correct one but as the document states it wouldn't be prudent to start this messaging until well into the vaccine program.

As a side note there's also some information in that document about the future of borders and air travel in a Covid normal world.

It's easy to think that politicians are just playing political games for votes, and in some respects that has been true, but they all have a goal for re-opening as soon as safely possible and there's official policy out there about this if you look hard enough. I know as pilots we would want these politicians to be shouting the end game at the top of their lungs so we have the assurance our industry will be back to normal at a specific time, but that will come within time as this vaccine program is rolled out.

And some further comments on this topic that were made Feb 5:

Morrison hinted that Australians could expect a return to a greater level of normality in the months ahead, as vaccinations would reduce the incidence of severe disease and fatalities, while cautioning that “we’re not there yet”.

“The vaccination program, over months, as it’s rolled out, can change the nature of how Australia then manages the virus,” Morrison said after a national cabinet meeting (so for the naysayers yes this is where the states are getting onboard) where the issue was discussed. “The point was made: it’s less, then, about cases as it is about presentations at ICU or seeking significant treatment, and that we can potentially move to a situation where we manage the virus potentially like other conditions that are in the community.”

Israel - 95% drop in hospitalisation with moderate to critical Covid amongst the vaccinated.

That is incorrect. The ALAEA did not take Qantas to the federal court over stand downs, I suggest re-reading some news articles on that matter.

Um, yeah they did?:

Qantas stand-downs justified by pandemic

Are you confusing this case with the sick leave case?

Absolutely right they did,it was based on useful work as in rectification such as hold items etc.

As to the effectiveness of the vaccine, when you consider how tiny the test group was and how many anti vaxxers and scaredy cats there are I am reminded of a quote from Anchorman :
"60% of the time it works every time"

Did you read that article? The application to the Federal Court was made by Qantas, not the ALAEA.

Nope, wrong again.

The useful work case, is not what was won by Qantas, it was the stoppage of work case. Although it sounds the same, it isn't.

So, the 744 RIN is on....

Any bold predictions on how this’ll play out?

I assume like a normal RIN. What are your specific concerns?

Its a pretty straight forward RIN...
787 or 330 - very few may loose a stripe but nothing too outrageous.

With the company adamant that training will not occur until all current crew are stood up - it’s much of a muchness which fleet will get you back in a seat quicker.

No concerns, just interested in predictions of who is going to displace who. This is a rumour network after all... :p

I think you’ll see a few head to the 380 based on posts and things I’m hearing.

Yes, I can’t see too many of the 744 SOs heading off to be 787 SOs in Perth. :)

just remember folks, getting 'displaced' doesnt mean you get booted. It just gets you onto the fleet, should the co wish to domino it they must repeat the process.

most will end up on the 787 at a guess, or the juniors on the 330. I'd be surprised if any stripes were lost unless a stubborn LOP is submitted.

there's always some that will try to outsmart the RIN. The co always gets what they want.

On the other hand the 787 (and 330) will be first to have all pilots stood back up so training can commence.

Displce to the 380 all you like, it ain’t coming back for much longer.