Im not sure what this proves. Are you saying Qantas is ahead of the game because it already has zero expats?

Neither Country has Stand down provisions. The Japs have to pay 60% of salary to Furloughed employees

Apologies if badly phrased.

Just struck me a tad "deckchairs on the titanic" to be discussing the currency/return to flying costs when greater interest should be the size and shape of QF in the future - and how many staff/pilots will be required.

Six months in and AirJapan/Scoot are now deciding to downsize, other airlines will be doing the same as total uncertainty regards international travel volumes in 2021 and onwards.

I think QF will survive - although it doesn't have to, just a company and if the expenses continue to exceed income the cash burn will only stop when no more cash to burn, spending money now that doesn't have to be spent would seem illogical.

Might cost more in the future - but QF have to survive to get to that future.

Nothing to do with re-training.

Hmm...fair point. I was focusing more on the concept of “reactivating operations” and “maintain the connection with employees”.

Aviation is fairly unique in that it involves long lead in training times, so it’s not as simple as just rehiring staff.

they have determined, *at this stage*, that a reduction in crew numbers of about 190 plus coming (large) natural attrition will right size them for the future.
thats about a 15% reduction in LH crew numbers to start, bearing in mind we've been short for yonks.

also all remaining crew being stood down only costing leave accrual so about a 90% pay cut thus its easier to justify not making a bunch redundant with associated (substantial) costs.

Many/most(?) Other airlines dont have this option available to them.

thats the current state of play at least.

Yes Maggot.
Qantas pilots are some of the worst off globally during COVID. I think only Finnair is as bad talking to a CPT recently.
Stand down is exceptionally favourable for Qantas but unfavourable to Pilots.
Most countries laws require between 50-80% of salary even if not flying. 188 pilots are leaving via CR. 280 have taken LWOP for years.
Around another 60-80 will be over retirement age when flying returns.
It’s roughly 30-35% of the pilot body that will not be around the next few years. In line with most pilot layoffs around the world
Good news is a vaccine looks like it will arrive before the end of the year. If you look at the 787 flight to nowhere it sold out in less than 10 minutes.
The pent up demand for travel is huge.

I would like to be this optimistic. :)

Air Japan was largely expat driven via contacts. Scoot not so much and it’s the cadets that will largely wear the brunt of it. Aussies at Scooter who have been there for a while are in senior roles or perm residents, so are going nowhere are still being paid nearly 50%. If they wiped out everyone minus the locals they couldn’t crew it, don’t forget it was largely a Aussie and British run venture from the get go.

Cadets won’t really be needed until the 2030s at this stage unless your a bottom feeding prop operation that nobody wants to work for and continues the high turnover.

I have a close Aussie friend who was a 787 Capt in Scoot. I say was, as last week he was made Compulsorily Redundant.

I also know of some however have only been around for a few years, and came in as DEC 787. They don’t have permanent residency and are on a contract as such.

Those who I worked with about 10-15 years ago in Tiger Singapore remain.

Most of the foreign pilots in Scoot who did not have permanent residence were let go. However they are first inline when the company needs to recruit again. Unfortunately this is likely to be a number of years as, in common with most airlines, an excess to current requirements is being retained in order to be ready as things pick up.

SIA retrenched a much lower percentage of pilots, also all foreigners sans PR. The main difference is that SIA is a career airline and most non citizens who joined would have intended to stay for their entire career, in which case applying for PR would make sense. Many of the foreigners in Scoot only intended to be there for a few years before moving on and in this case PR wouldn’t have been worth it.

Some will take up other jobs and some will leave the industry all together.

Some think QF can stand down staff indefinitely but maybe QF aren’t too sure about it themselves?

QF Annual Report 19/20.

Maybe some in QF Legal have their doubts?
Irrelevant really because AIPA have rolled over on it anyway!

Rolled over or keeping their powder dry??

If you want to run a case that pilots can’t be stood down when there are no border restrictions in place (for example), then you need to wait until there are no border restrictions before you can run that case.

No point running a case against the stand down now whilst domestic and international border restrictions quite obviously leave the business untenable. All you’d do is lose a whole lot of members money on legal fees and embolden Qantas to drag the stand down out further.

SIA doesn't have any pilots that aren't ; Singaporean , Malaysian or foreigners with PR.
Retrenchments would be from all of thee groups but, probably more foreigners with PR.
Expatriates were terminated many years ago and I don't believe that they have employed DECs since.
SIA is a career airline and a few expatriates from the 70s and 80s took out PR but, none did so in recent times because the salary was so much better as an expatriate.
Those foreigners who have PR would have come through the cadet program or SilkAir and worked on local terms from the start.
To them PR would make sense but, not to expatriates.

Wingspar and Beer Baron
I like your thought process even if you have different opinions on AIPA.
The stand down thing really needs to be addressed at some stage.

I agree with BB and hope that AIPA are biding their time. For the life of me I cannot imagine QF thinking that LH pilots especially those on the 380 and 744 will accept being stood down for years. In that sense BB is right that all the ducks need to be lined up. For the time being the ALAEA action will be interesting. It’s also interesting, from the annual report, that QF consider it a possible eventuality.

I believe you maybe correct Wingspar .
I too believe AIPA maybe biding their time on this and a myriad of other issues until after the upcoming AIPA elections where certain “impediments” are likely to be “circumvented” allowing CoM under a new Executive to continue pursuing unanswered questions once again .
Something that hasn’t occurred with the last few iterations of the FUD elite !

So back to the days of an expensive litigious approach with poor outcomes?

Even when the federal government allows some form of international entry into the country again, probably mid next year from current indications, that won’t be a catalyst for stand downs to end. Take a look at Europe:

Travelling in Europe: Which countries have border restrictions in place?

Even though the continent is more open than March/April every country has a myriad of different restrictions in place with regards to entry, quarantine, isolation, reasons for entry, health checks, documentation and ports of entry. It is very likely the Australian government will impose similar measures in differing standards against different countries. The US for instance will probably have more stringent measures than others for a few years more, and that was a big international market for Australia.

This is also notwithstanding other nation’s restrictions on entry which may affect airline business, that could possibly also be altered at short notice. The borders won’t be back to December 2019 levels by mid next year, it’ll be a few years more after that and justification for stand downs will be well entrenched. That’s even assuming the border restrictions are the catalyst for stand downs which is what some are arguing here, not the pandemic and associated lack of international travel.

This isn't looking good 8 months in and international doesn't exist , domestic at maybe 5%

All the big babblers here screeching how quick domestic would bounce back & howling down the possibilities of CRs, vaccines next month

Big "that's all cr*p" proclamations but unable to articulate the why & how things are going to unfold

The ANZ boss the other day says he can't see Tasman opening until March 2021 at earliest , oh & by they believe half of Americans won't
take a vaccine in the event one is developed

Hard to see domestic borders opening this year, domestic starts in 2021, maybe 12 months from now domestic at 25 % , international 10 or 15 % (ie: Tasman & one of
Japan , Taiwan) . Feel free to map out your plan to open up QF international , which countries , when , what frequencies and how, detail how it is all going to work
I can't see QF returning to USA in 2021 & that was 40% of the international business

Corporates won't be travelling very much anymore in Australia, neither will public servants & no international visitors to truck around. Unfortunately domestic
is looking very very weak. Yes people want to have a holiday (Aussie not cool for under 30s locals to vacation in) but it is economic Chernobyl & a very high cost country)

Likely management know how bad it really is & that is why they are flea bagging in the relocate HQ ruse, they need the bucks

Think FF "business" will likely fall over , when oh when will punters wake up to that con , pay another 3% on CC get a whole lot of points that are unusable . Good one !

And they still say CRs won't happen , its all good as gold

Well by your own logic and predictions in your post they won’t. If it’s established that border restrictions are catalysts for stand downs (not legally proven) and you say the borders will be closed for a long time yet then CR won’t happen as stand downs can be continued for that time.

Stand down isn't being driven by Border closures, It is being driven by the Jobkeeper amendment to the Fair work act. The government has stated that even when the employee subsidies expire in March 2021 businesses that still qualify for the Jobkeeper provisions may be able to continue with those provisions until their business conditions return. Meaning unfortunately for Airline and tourism staff that potentially stand down will continue until profitability returns, not borders reopening. Probably why the initial rush to push through QFLHEA variations has subsided as the company have breathing space to at least the end of March and probably beyond with the help of the Government.

😂😂😂😂😂

Get a load of this rubbish. Thanks for the laugh
Domestic is already >20%

Domestic > 20%...........

Really? I think that is a load of rubbish!

The amount of ornamental static displays parked around the country's major 'dromes would call BS on that!

For LH and SH pilots, they were stood down under provisions in the applicable Agreements. Stand down provisions existed in the Fair Work Act prior to the COVID amendments.

Whom would you be referring to , reference going down the expensive/ poor outcome litigious route Sir ?
Barry , Dave and Murray , who happen to be on the incoming Executive ticket ( if my sources are correct ) never struck me as such !
Do you mean that if AIPA actually has the gumption and audacity to actually challenge contractual interpretations through the appropriate Industrial channels , instead of just rolling over on everything demanded by Alan , then the pilots will be dragged through the courts by Qantas ?
Oh I understand where you’re coming from now !

Thanks, that answers my question. The 2011 lockout happened under their stewardship.

The lockout had what , exactly to do with the pilots and the Executive running AIPA at the time ?
Tell me , was it the red ties or was it the scripted PA’s that caused the lockout ?
God knows what Alan would have done if AIPA told the pilots to wear the issued red arm bands !
How exactly then , does that tie-in with your accusation of an expected round of expensive yet futile lawsuits ???
What , are they about to run out of Qantas office jobs over the road for retreaded AIPA executives thus through causality a new litigious era can be expected ?

​​​​​Initially that was true. However once the variations to the Fair work act by jobkeeper came into effect we have been governed by a JobKeeper enabling stand down direction which have far more reaching powers for a Business than just the EA stand down provisions we work under in normal times.

Just put him on the ignore list, the guy is just an embarrassment who has zero idea.
Telfer86, go away, you are just a narcissist who is loving others's misfortune.

I was supportive of the AIPA COM at the time. I wore the tie, made the PAs and stood at the front door to wear the flack of those passengers who decided they wanted to have a shot.

The lockout of pilots had everything to do with the AIPA COM and executive of the time. It was them that set the strategy and it was their actions that tied the pilots to the ALAEA and TWU’s ‘slow bake’. We were industrially naive as to how the situation would progress and how Qantas would respond. That’s on the executive and the COM of the time as well. Hopefully those people are all much wiser now. Judging by the actions of a number of the COM members on ‘the ticket’ I’m not convinced that’s the case.

Domestic at 20% ? Not sure what you are smoking WA , Vic , & Tas effectively closed , in/out of SA a couple of flights a day, NT effectively closed, yes maybe something
in Qld intra state. I think less than 4% , I am certainly not going to accept a figure because a senior manager at Aussie airline makes that claim. Would accept at face value
from ANZ , but for our boys I would need to see the raw data myself

Dr - suggesting that the change in quantum of domestic travel will be near enough to permanent. Large employers just aren't going to
allow their staff to travel for at least the next three years. The way people work in Aust has changed

Bitre data not out yet , June might have been 8% or so & we have gone down since then , most of the NBs getting around now
might have 20 or 30 pax

In terms of getting a large taxpayer cashy for moving HQ , QF look to their N & their S & they know they will never have this opportunity again they will
never have two greater wood ducks to milk. The Victorian will do it just for the publicity , get up shake his a$$e & start shrieking "look at me"

But the other flock of wood ducks that FF/loyalty preyed on will surely wake up now

Why can't QF have a CEO like the last few guys who have ran ANZ, home grown blokes , achieved success OS , laid back , casual no fuss ?

How's the plan to reopen International coming along ? Lots of babbling & big man talk - but no facts & no plan

I can't see how you open travel to USA, EU, SAfrica, SAmerica given the infection rates & issues you would having screening pax & issues you would have believing anything that local officials told you

Maybe Donald gets a bad rap the fatality rates in UK, Spain, France & Italy are similar too if not worse than USA unfortunately (just cursory glance UK looks
25% higher, wrong there Spain gets the gold , USA/Italy/UK call it dead heat, Frenchie get the bronze 20% off the pace)

Interesting how his highness emerges whenever I make a post - he is the main man after all

The Earl of pprune ,he does wonderful talkies

Hmm, you sure? Thats not what Fids says..

This is worth a read for those who want to revisit some of what occurred back in 2011.

I think the 20% is inclusive of FIFO and Cargo?

Excluding that, I assume we are in single digits.

Lots of words.....Lots of dribble.

I guess you have to be employed by QF to be privy to internal news.

Or maybe just watch the national news. Great development in border openings. signs of things to come.

Thanks for the laugh nonetheless but I’ll be joining majority and placing you on the ignore list

🤫

It is a good development. But QLD-ACT and SA-NSW weren't exactly the two biggest markets beforehand. I have a suspicion a lot of travel, especially business travel, will be on hold until travel is unrestricted nationwide, as a sign that the pandemic has subsided internally, which will restore consumer confidence and confidence to travel. So when Victoria gets it's situation under control, which it is doing, that can be achieved. Even the strictest Premier in WA, just yesterday said Victoria getting their situation under control means a WA border re-opening date can start to be considered.

So Domestically we may be back on track to be open again by latest early next year?

The problem with this is no state can define “what’s under control” just like what is a hot spot or what causes a border to open an shut.

SA said they would open Wednesday if there is no transmission in NSW What is not know what if there is a community transmission Saturday?!

There is no way to predict a ‘latest.’ One new Melbourne style outbreak and we’re back to square one.