The only difference between Qantas and ‘everyone else’ is the size of Qantas domestic network compared to international. So whilst I can see international being paired back quite strongly for the next 12-18 months, I’d be surprised if there was much of an impact on mainline SH crew apart from staying on MGH for the foreseeable future once they get back to about 75% of pre COVID levels. Of course that 75% mark may not be until close to December, or as wheels down Correctly put it, much later if Victoria stuffs up this community transmission.

What to do about international the in the interim? Who freaking knows!

A lot of this comes down to a vaccine. If one of those gets up and going within the next 6-12 months the 12-18 months after that could be flat out.

Could be. But won’t. Read up on the Depression. We’ve got another 9 months until the financials of March ‘20 hit. It’s not going to be pretty - most in the Western world are sitting pretty (not crew) because stimulus is so far covering their lifestyles. Nice break to get those home Reno’s done and catch up on Netflix.That fun is ending very soon. Then what?

There aren’t even enough syringes in the world to administer vaccines - that’s aside from any nasty mutations or even developing and administering the thing.

Kung Flu is the gift that will keep on giving....

A safe and effective vaccine is conceivable given the huge $ being spent this time, and given the many independent efforts currently underway. But previous SARS coronavirus vaccine research failed (the vaccine appeared to be hazardous rather than protective to animals who were exposed to the SARS virus after the vaccine). So a vaccine (and any plans dependent on a vaccine) are no more than plausible at this very early stage. I don't think it is realistic to plan on a vaccine.

The economy is sick. Far sicker than many people suspect. Huge money is being invested in stock markets which have recovered quickly. However the stock markets are now totally disconnected from fundamentals in the real world economy. As V-jet said, it is all being propped up by stimulus. But that has to end at some stage.

I suspect COVID will be with us indefinitely. It is much less lethal than previously thought - perhaps 0.1% mortality in well people < 70 years. It can be controlled somewhat - at a price. But I doubt it can be completely contained. Some difficult compromises will need to be taken balancing the twin priorities of stimulating the economy and protecting the vulnerable.

There are multiple geopolitical threats. There is an unpredictable US election in 5 months. And there is the growing spectre of China applying economic pressure to influence Australia's political leaders.

So overall, volatility and risk are both off the scale.

Warren Buffett sold his airline stock. All of it. Including carriers which were majority domestic operations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...after-covid-19
https://www.businessinsider.com/amer...tt-exit-2020-6

With Qantas saying they will update by the end of June, this coincides with the 3 month requirement for redundancy in most agreements.....being July,August and September. Jobkeeper ends on 27 September and government is consistently said it will end then. Also what a reborn VA will consist of should be known by then. So I am thinking it could be 20-30% of Qf workforce affected in some way or the other! Hopefully no more than that!

Up to 9000 group wide, or 30ish%

Announcement tommorrow.

Had there been any email about this? I don’t have one about possible redundancies. Or is this pure speculation that there will be an announcement regarding lay offs.

No comms from Company, but a Manager has told me there will be a Group Wide announcement tomorrow which will include plans for up to 10,000 redundancies. Might just be a rumour but fits with the stock exchange announcement on Monday morning, my feeling is that narrow body domestic and Tasman operators will be largely untouched with the brunt coming in non operational and international wide body areas. Good luck everyone.

Well lets hope its a rumor, Surely the company and unions can come to a SLWOP agreement preserving jobs, after all we will be flying to Europe again one day.

I hope so as well, what I do know of Qantas though is their version of consultation is to listen to our Unions idea’s and then to do whatever they have decided to do.

I'm not sure AJ would be running a Town Hall the day they make an announcement such as that.

Such a large announcement such as that would require a ASX release before they announced it internally.

This stuff is fairly confidential outside a C line role so could be well off the mark.

It’s coming it will be brutal.

Once in a generation chance to pull out a large amount of cost in one hit. Everyone is doing it.

it’s coming tomorrow?

Friday I was told.

Dragon man has been on the money in the past...

enlighten us, any insight as to how many redundancies? Which work groups?
CR or VR?

I’m hearing quite dramatic fleet reduction crewmours inc a decent number of 330 and 737

Probably fits in with the rumour about standing up international Cabin Crew managers time deal with it. I doubt there will be 4 engined long haul flying for a few years, even when international does return it’ll be 787 and 330 only initially. There’s a lot of Cabin Crew needed to crew a 747 or 380 who won’t be needed for a few years.

International Pilots should escape this due to the long lead in times for training and a more complex structure of their agreements if crew are going to be moved. I would expect them to be stood down for the foreseeable future however.

Two days ago Mr LaSpina went to great lengths to debunk these redundancy rumours. His words were he would see CR as a failure and that’s not on the radar.

Now it is possible that there has been some seismic shift in thinking after 48 hours, and that all of you harbingers of doom are right all along, but, frankly, I reckon you’re all talking out of your collective arses.

How about we just wait until an announcement is made, if one is made at all? Then the doomsayers can gloat that their expert reading of the tea leaves from their cup of morning brew was correct all along. I hope those same prophets of doom will have the intestinal fortitude to admit they made the whole thing up if it turns out to be exactly what I expect it to be. Complete nonsense.

ASX website shows last announcement 2nd June. However rumours of mass layoffs are trickling into stock advisor sites.