Sunfish , you need help.
Where does you’re resentment come from?
Upset that the Chairmans Lounge wont recognise your petty bourgeoisie status?
Cant get an upgrade?
Meanwhile there are much bigger issues at stake. The privatisation of the CBA , Telstra and Qantas were ideologically based decisions by the Hawke Government from 1991. The quid pro quo for the average punter was low wage grow compensated by increases in the social wage. Plus the promise of a growing economy and cheaper services. And cheap airfares.
Now its coming unstuck.
We have been riding the tiger.
Nowhere else in the world would you expect to have two premium carriers and two low cost carriers at each other’s throats in a market of 25 million.
It always was delusional. Its no coincidence that Virgin dumped Tiger as soon as it could.
Governments all over the world will be re-evaluating privatisation and globalisation.
This is a once in a hundred year event.
Sorry Sunfish , howl at the moon all you like . Your day is done.

The problem George is not me, it’s the tens of thousands who won’t get real jobs because of the cost to the community of protecting Qantas.

To put that another way, we let the car industry go, we should let Qantas go for exactly the same

We can’t afford you.

10000 jobs is not worth 5 billion dollars of debt and another 1.4 billion on top of that. There is no way any private investor would pump money into a multi year loss making entity without taking ownership and the debt being forgiven so why should the taxpayer?

The simple fact is virgin is owned by foreigners, if they won't save it then it says something. Put the company into administration, do a deal on the debt and sell the operation as a going concern otherwise wind it up and start again. I'm sure someone will buy a bargain aoc with bargain planes for sale around the world to run some of the most lucrative routes in the world with skilled staff waiting to be employed. They wouldn't save Ansett.. Virgin in it's current form will go the same way unless you believe in miracles.

monomania
[ mŏn′ə-mā′nē-ə, -mān′yə ]

n.

Pathological obsession with one idea or subject, as in paranoia.

Sunfish, Qantas didn’t kill ansett. Ansett did a pretty good job of it itself. With the help of our friends across the ditch. And probably your touch managing some of its engineering. How’d your 767 oversight go again? Oh yes that’s right. What a ‘cracker’ of a tale.

Qantas has also focussed itself on your beloved Melbourne via Jetstar. That’s it’s hub and head office. And it serves your demographic down there very well.

Qantas is a Sydney based airline and obviously focuses its head office operation there. Basically because Sydney is Australia’s biggest city, and where it’s been for most of its history. Longer than you’ve been alive. It’s also the place most visitors want to fly into before dispersing across the domestic network.

Qantas is also flying around empty planes burning cash to serve as an essential service. Because it’s what it does as Australia’s national airline for 100 years. The competition doesn’t want to burn its cash for the good of Australia. Because it’s cash is better suited to its shareholders country of origins. And to keep it going for a little longer. Which is fair enough. PS is actually doing a great job. Perhaps if the cards were a little different, I’ve no doubt Virgin would have come good on his watch. It still may.

To put it another way, would qantas sell the silverware to keep 3k going? It’ll punt it in a heartbeat.

So love it, hate it, whatever. I don’t care. But it’ll be here in another 100. Because it’s an Australian company that does what it does pretty well.

“Real jobs” ?????

Do you actually know anybody who has worked the industry?
Or do you just make it up in your head?
There has been a relentless chase to the bottom across the industry , including Qantas, for the last 30 years.
The people suffering the most right now will be either on casual contracts or EBAs with bare bones sick leave or personal leave entitlements.
Talk to a Tiger pilot . See how you go . Just don’t use the phrase “real jobs”. You might not survive the encounter.

There has been a hollowing out of the middle class and an abandonment of the working class for 30 years.
Now is the reckoning.
The challenge for capitalism is to prove that Marx wasn’t right after all.
He would have had you peg straight away Sunfish.

How many times....? You cannot buy an AOC, you must buy the company that owns the AOC, which then means you take on all of that companies' liabilities as well.

As I said, let it go into administration, a savvy investor could buy a fully functional airline for a decent price and the debtors could get cents on the dollar instead of nothing. There is options, its not like we have to see the end of the Virgin brand in Australia. I believe another charter operation which is quite successful in Australian skies started out the exact same way..

Expecting any organisation to succeed in a post covid world with $5 billion in debt that hasn't turned a profit in 7 or 8 years when the rest of the aviation world has been literally printing money is pure fantasy.

That's a real possibility if Virgin go under and no one steps into the gap. In exchange for being the only premium airline QF might be happy to be rid of it and concentrate on the full service market with the higher yielding pax which is what they know. Jetstar don't really fit into the QF/EK/Oneworld mafia anyway.

Consolidation will be the name of the airline game in the post COVID-19 world and whilst Singapore Airlines are likely to come through because of strong government backing, their traditional premium and business traveller market will be decimated. Picking up an established Australian low cost operation at a depressed price and merging Jetstar Asia into Scoot would give them a strong showing in the Asia Pacific low cost arena which is likely to be the only growth area for a long time. Singapore lacks a domestic network which its rivals enjoy, this ultimately caps Scoot at around 50 airframes. A combined Scoot+Jetstar+Jetstar Asia fleet would be around 140 aircraft and quite capable of taking on the currently much larger Air Asia and Cebu Pacific competitors. Call the whole thing Scoot and effectively Australia would be Singapore's domestic backyard.

Buying an established operation, which already complies with Australian rules, operates the same types as your subsidiary and isn't encumbered with billions of dollars of debt like Virgin makes more sense than a new start up like Tiger Australia did. There is already considerable Singaporean investment in Australia, and with QF and SIA being major rivals, the ACCC should be satisfied that competition would be maintained. Sometimes strange partnerships emerge such as SIA, Virgin, Etihad and Air New Zealand.

The above scenario may seem a little imaginative but isn't outside the realms of possibility in the interesting times that we are currently in.

More likely Qantas would spin JQ off. I don’t know why it has not been done already, but even if Virgin remains which is more likely, there is a very high chance that JQ is going to be spun off in some form. Financially they will need it, would be a big cash grab to assist funding upcoming Airbus orders and market downturn. A minor to medium share would remain, I can’t really see them disposing of it all together.

Doing this post a Virgin collapse, well the value would soar even more and would be a very attractive offer.

A Jetstar Asia and Scoot merger would make sense. The only issue would be the asking price for it. Jetstar Asia lease the whole fleet and is loss making, overlap many routes with Scooter so effectively the business is worth $0. They are facing the future prospect of going up against Scoot with a Fleet six times. That is only a few years away. Just piss it off.

but you keep telling everyone you can afford everything.

While an interesting scenario, let's keep in mind that SIA has a dismal record at operating in Australia overall through equity.

Strike 1: Air New Zealand group (including Ansett). 25% stake in NZ after then-Chairman & MD Selwyn 'Borghetti' Cushing used his veto rights to block SQ from buying News Corp's 50% stake in AN. SIA's stake in NZ ended during the Ansett bankruptcy debacle

Strike 2: Tiger Airways Australia. Even with SIA owning that former subsidiary through Tiger Airways Holdings, they still managed to screw that up with the maintenance debacles, "selling to VA for $1" to save face on their own incompetence.

Strike 3: Virgin Australia. Participating in the Capacity War & CapEx failures in cahoots with Etihad and Borghetti. Air New Zealand also played a minor role through participating in the Capacity War before then-CEO Luxon realised the situation, tried to change the situation but was outnumbered by EY and SQ, and subsequently decided to sell out of VA while NZ had the chance.

If SIA couldn't get their 3 goes in Australia right, there's very little chance of SIA getting a "4th go" right.

The Qantas Pan Asian strategy doesn't seem to have worked too well either, and Jetstar Pacific (Vietnam) would probably be up for the chop if Jetstar Asia goes. Ten aircraft up against the likes of Vietjet Air and Bamboo Airways wouldn't be a serious proposition, especially without access to a wider network. Tiger Airways tried expansion in Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines and Australia without success. Going up against large, well established local airlines on their home turf with a considerably smaller fleet and hoping to gradually build up hasn't worked for foreign airlines.

AirAsia (Malaysia) and Cebu Pacific have grown strongly from a small size, but they were operating in their home countries and their only competition was an inefficient and expensive national airline which they could easily undercut with the proven low cost business model. They got in at the right time and filled the gap.

Jetstar Hong Kong never got off the ground, QF are a minority shareholder in Jetstar Japan and could decide to sell out to Japan Airlines and leave it to them to run as their own rebranded low cost subsidiary.

Singapore Incorporated won't step in to prop up a loss making, billions in debt with profits years away, Virgin Australia in its present form. Keeping the SIA group going is already a big drain on government resources.

Stemming losses and making consolodations will be the new order, profits will be difficult enough, even without capacity and price wars.

QF would probably be happy with its 65% line in the sand domestic share together with the regional and international network. They are one of the few airlines that we can be reasonably sure will still be standing at the end of the current pandemic. News reports have now stopped referring to a recession and are talking about a depression instead.

The question is who will fill the remaining 35% of the domestic market. A Virgin mark 2 with 40 B737s or a Lion Air Australia operation with similar numbers would enable QF to retain JQ though they would probably restructure it into a smaller size without the B787s and Asian subsidiaries.

Virgin going under without a replacement to fill the gap could require QF to divest itself of Jetstar. A spun off JQ with 35% market share and no competition within that sector would be a more attractive proposition for investors than bailing out Virgin and having to compete with QF at the top and JQ at the bottom.

There could be an unspoken, cosy arrangement where QF set fares which maintain profitability and shareholder return for them, the competing set up are about 15% less ie not enough to make QF customers trade down but too much to make the bogans trade up. Occassional snap sales of a few seats at 50% off by both airlines and you have the impression of competition which keeps everyone happy. Passengers pay higher fares but services are maintained and both operators make money.

Well it’s another reason why Alan wants Virgin out. Effectively would double Jetstar’s value.

Jetstar total group EBIT is around 350-400m. This contains all the loss making ventures of Pacific, Vietnam, Japan, so this could be anywhere up to 100m in loss, capex.

Offloading 50% would be a multi billion dollar deal. Offloading half without Virgin, would be eye watering.

To please regulators, and selling say 75%, well you can see why Alan wants Virgin gone. Would give the parent business enormous firepower for the next few decades. Netting many billions from a sale will put off any competitor even contemplating arriving down under. It would become the worlds strongest carrier, debt free, high margins, and full control of the majority of slots, property.

Much work would be done around securing as many East Coast Virgin slots and terminals as possible, to enable any other entrant an impossible task of building a network. The entire WA charter operation would be picked up almost the next day.

I would expect QF to ramp up the noise around Virgins funding as time goes along. If QF promises to replace every Aircraft that Virgin had in the market, like for like, with a large chunk of tech, cabin, engineering crew, well that could pose problems for any Virgin funding attempt.

I want to say this because it's been building inside me. If I had a flame thrower I burn this whole F@#*ing web site down to the ground.
You play with people's minds, people's livelihoods, nothing but disrespect. It's bullying. I'll stop now before I get really depressed.

You can bet that these very scenarios have already been examined in microscopic detail by Qantas in case of VAH ceasing operations.

As much it is unlikely, it's in everyone's interest if VAH, or a version of it, keeps operating domestically.

Keep the bastards honest.

Please, stop reading it for your own good. I've been down the same path with Ansett. It's horrible I know.

It's all speculation and posturing here. Nobody is playing with livelihoods here as the decisions that matter are being made elsewhere, so best tune out. There is no useful info here as far as your career is concerned.

Assuming that is technically possible. Jetstar is very opaque in its structure and operation. Noone knows what the real figures are and how it benefits QF. It is possible that it cannot be separated or QF may not want it to be separated for a myriad of reasons.

Isn’t this the whole reason people are arguing for the government not to let VA fail....?

The Federal Govt is not bailing VA. I know from an internal source that they a. don't see any of the current owners ponying up with any support and b. they are afraid that any cash splash will wind up in the hands of the shareholders and other preferential creditors leaving the cupboard bare again. The VA accumulated losses are massive and no one will go anywhere near them.

I still can't see QF agreeing to the setting up of a LCC (JQ) to compete against them. However, it would be interesting if they were made to revert to QF as an INTL airline only & JQ as a DOM airline only...back to how it was. Of course, I can't see this happening either, but it would make it easier for a new entrant into the market.

VA atleast looking after its employees
 

https://7news.com.au/politics/virgin...rkers-c-967464

At least it looks like Virgin is looking after its employees and taking a more conservative stance on how to use the Jobkeeper payments and Annual Leave.

I wonder if Qantas and Jetstar will follow suit?

Huge difference mate, car industry didn't make money, QF does and as of now has the ability to survive this crisis unaided, something very few airlines around the world can claim.

It seems that in your altruistic world sending QF and their decently paid 30,000 workforce down the tube would unleash the aviation Kraken, bringing in thousands of million of billions of lower paying jobs from exceptional airlines such as Lion or Scoot so that towns such as Coober Pedy can be served by a daily double return B787 service to La Palma International. Where do I sign up?

Well really the taxpayer is looking after them. By the taxpayer (via the govt) paying wages to staff that allows them to gain their annual leave credits back. This will cost VA nothing.

Did you forget about the ~220 Tiger pilots that "Virgin is looking after."?

The car industry wasn't an essential strategic asset, vital to the national well being. Cars can easily be imported from multiple sources at a lower price, and dare I say it, better quality than they could be produced in Australia. Whilst it did provide jobs directly and also throughout the supply chain, the cost of maintaining those jobs was prohibitive. Given the limited local market and high cost of production the industry would always require support, and whilst everyone wanted Holden to be saved, few people actually went out and bought their cars. Ford Australia and Holden weren't going to become major exporters similar to Toyota and Hyundai so their prospects were very limited.

Qantas on the other hand is a strategic asset, particularly on the domestic side and can compete well with foreign airlines on the international side. It was previously profitable and will likely generate future profits once we are over the current situation. It may not even require a bail out if relative normality returns soon. Government resources will be stretched extremely thin in the coming months, if any aid is given to Virgin at all it will be very limited and conditional on the airline showing it can turn around in a fairly short time, which will require major restructuring and downsizing. Anyone who thinks Canberra will simply write a cheque which enables Virgin to continue in its present form is dreaming.

Perhaps that should be the last post in the thread until there is a further development? Difficult to argue with anything that you wrote.

QF is using the money to paydown annual leave - using taxpayer money to clean up their balance sheet. I thought they were against government handouts?

One thing is for certain and that is that the Australian Government or any potential investor won't make may decision until they've made careful analysis of the expert opinions written down by the pilots on pprune.

I have heard this from an internal source.

Yes, a separate confidential source has also indicated a government decision will be influenced by the sage comments within these forums.

So now we have multiple points of confirmation - facts always win out. :uhoh:

Virgin don't have any unencumbered aircraft or other assets...they even have had E190's and ATR's parked in US and NZ for a year or two unable to get out of those leases. Big bucks per month for aircraft earning nothing..

A decision that is still negatively impacting VA. What a great Board, they should be so proud of their decisions in recent years! And to think these wankers are still drawing a wage....

VA directly owns half their 737 fleet.

4 of their 777Ws are also registered under "Virgin Blue (VB) Leaseco Pty Ltd" (a wholly owned subsidiary of VAH).

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Virgin-Australia

Pretty sure I read in the FAQ, QF weren’t doing this.

From The Australian today: "Mr Godfrey said the airline had lost its cost advantage over the Qantas Group and any private or public investment should be contingent on Virgin Australia chief executive Paul Scrurrah forcing through a massive restructure to make the carrier viable in the long term."
What (if any) steps is the VAH CEO taking to significantly lower the cost base long term? Have the unions been approached about wage reductions or, at the very least, significant wage freezes to help make it more viable over the next 5-10 years?

If the owners of VA wanted to gift the ownership of their airline to someone who would take it ?

JB, in haste to transform Virgin into a QF competitor, signed too many bad supplier contracts which contributed more to loss of cost advantage than the salaries paid to the staff.

Can't see any government investment - One of Scurrah's remaining options would be to position Virgin back to it's roots as a true loco with a single aircraft type only (B737) with a reduced fleet size. Get rid of VARA which has probably got some value in the west.

The problem is no private investor has come forward to date, the stakeholders are clearly not interested, so it's a matter of trying to reduce outgoings to the point where there is enough cash going forward beyond COVID. That's a very tricky exercise as the timing of the end of COVID restrictions is unknown, plus the recovery time back to a more "normal" market could take years.

Reverting back to the LCC option using the owned 737 fleet is probably the more ideal option, via filing Voluntary Administration by calling in the administrators and relieving the shareholders of their requirements.

While the 'shareholders' may not be happy for 'losing control' of VA through administrators being called in, it may be better for VA (or a post-administration successor, whatever they call the post-administration airline, in the long run).

For SIA, Etihad, HNA, et al. If I were any of that lot, I'd be ensuring that VA wasn't trading while 'insolvent', as they'd be in trouble otherwise if they were (and face possible bans from managing a company in Australia if they were to invest in any Australian based company in the future).

If VA were found to be trading while 'insolvent', it'll add to the numerous Australian failures for the "so-called messiah" SIA (and would be a big setback for SQ 'trying to tap' into the Australian domestic market). SIA already has a trail of investment failures in Australia through Air New Zealand/Ansett and Tiger Airways Australia.

The problem being all the owned aircraft would be encumbered and likely repressed by creditors.

The bald one comes out from his nature reserve in Tasmania to speak!! BG got the push once the airline starting to really grow. Much too big for his limited abilities. Brett’s legacy is floating a lemon of an investment so that Richard, Brett, Sherrard and Brett’s other high school buddies would receive millions of dollars worth of shares. Pay dirt! And benefit they did. The share price went downhill from the time they floated though. What did you do Brett in the years after the airline floated, to keep investors happy and to grow the share price? Yep, nothing. From memory Richard’s take was around $960m, Sherrard bailed early with around $60m to $80m, Godfrey around the $40m and a few other ‘mates’ took around $5m to $7m. Give or take a few million here and there. Along came Il Deuce and the race to the bottom hit hyper speed. I wouldn’t put any thought into or pay attention to anything current of former executives or Board say.

Brett, go back to your eco lodge and comfortable lifestyle c/o the original Virgin Blue float. The days of dancing around the tarmac and waving goodbye to planes are long gone, and so are you. Or are you camping this long weekend on Makepoo’s Island, the Island bought exclusively (supposedly) for staff to use? Another Virgin deception.