Houlihan Lokey are still looking at the books; especially the assets and due dates for the liabilities.

How many $ million a year do you think Branson pulls out of VAH in fees for the franchise, it would be around the same amount as the loss last FY.

I’m nervous after that PM statement. It’s clear in that statement from the PM that they are not assisting. Bit hard to say that, then pull some 11th hour deal.

The Government isn’t going to help. Looks like a Shorten government would have.

There is only really one option left. Branson to give them a loan. That’s the last desperate measure before calling it a day. He didn’t save Virgin America.

I’m feeling everyone’s pain. I’m quite angry actually. It didn’t have to end like this. 20 years. What an absolute waste and will be the worst corporate disaster in my lifetime. Bryan and Borghetti need to be stripped of every single cent to their names.

We don’t want some bottom feeding loco from the far north taking over. I hope David Neeleman sees an opportunity to bring his pride and joy down under, because my god it would be a weapon here. That’s the sort of carrier we need here, what Virgin should have been, and what this market needs. Not a Lion or Air Asia.

[QUOTE][/How many $ million a year do you think Branson pulls out of VAH in fees for the franchise,QUOTE]

I believe he has foregone those fees whilst the crisis goes on.

I also believe he propping Virgin Atlantic with a few hundred million.

Well, that quote from Morrison is fairly clear cut.

Unless "industry wide" is code for a rescue for all equally. However i cannot see intervention as Virgin stands right now. As much as I want them to, I can see why they would not.

Administration likely if it goes on much longer. Major share holders disinterested in further cash being injected.

If it goes into admin, I believe the administrators can force holders to take a haircut and cut payments etc and hopefully get a structure that can live on with as many staff as they can carry.

Perhaps Scotty from Maketing, the ‘speaking in tongues’ Pentecostal zealot will use prayer and a Hillsong singalong to solve all of Australia’s economic issues?? C’mon Scomo, let it rip mate, apparently your personal sky fairy will help you and us!!

The bondholders will be very keen to do a deal. Maybe a debt repayment : equity swap. There are plenty of options. I don’t mean to give false hope rather highlight a government (AUS or SIN) loan is not the only option.

Wealthy individuals want VAH to survive. White knights do exist. This trading halt brings to a head these considerations. You don’t buy a house at auction when you know there will be a mortgagee sale for the same house in a few weeks.

Administration is not a death spiral, especially if some of the debt can be restructured, which is exactly what is being negotiated/proposed.

Double Clutch, Virgin isn't 'partly owned by overseas companies, it's pretty much fully owned!

Qantas has a 49% cap on foreign ownership.

Virgin is over 91% foreign owned. My taxpayer dollars aren't going to be used saving a grossly mismanaged company that is over 91% foreign owned.

The problem for Virgin's survival is two fold. The foreign ownership, and the core belief in the free market rather than government ownership of assets. The deal needs to be done so that the Chinese,SIA,Etihad& Branson are removed from the company. So if that means it has to collapse before being reborn, I'd suggest that is the government's view.

I'd also suggest that Virgin isn't going to disappear (I hope not) and that a certain deal will be done. But we will just have to wait and see.

It’s interesting when people refer to the free market - because the market is exactly the opposite to that right now. In fact there is no market because of (the correct) government actions.

And for those that think the free market is the answer to everything - I assume you don’t support the money on offer to regional airlines? Or the money being spent keeping childcare centres open. Or the money being given to universities to help them offset the massive loss in revenue from foreign students. I also assume you’ll hand back any job keeper subsidy you (or your company) is receiving because sure as hell having the government chip in $3k a month per employee isn’t a free market either.

Rex is 100% foreign owned yet I haven’t heard the same amount of commentary regarding them receiving government assistance.

Hopefully it’s a poker game at the moment , bluffing the owners that they are about to lose everything if they don’t pony up ? Their airlines not operating to Australia so no income from any extra investment? Scomo can easily say something changed and is now willing to help but that’s not the case today it seems .
Good luck .

bingo.
I feel like I’m on crazy pills when anyone brings up “free market” at the moment.

to quote the polarising Alan Jones ”the government has put the market in a coma, it needs to pay for the life support”

No Colonel. Not my belief, but what the Liberal Party is built around. Hence why people comment "its obvious the Labor Party would have bought out Virgin wheres the Liberal Party isn't going to"

The free market means minimum intervention by the government. Despite the narrowing of the difference, LNP and ALP still do differ here slightly. It doesn't mean no intervention. So hence why the government's current intervention strategies have been what they've been. e.g. the $715m package.

Maybe your lifetime Wheels, but for a number of those here (including VAI employees) there was a far larger Airline collapse in 2001, when after 65 years, an aviation icon collapsed. Your 20 years is not quite a third of that.

Like today, the liberal government of the time fumbled and then refused to help. Qantas stirred the pot and the unions merely sought to pursue their open agenda. The Labor government of the time resorted to scoring points.

In the end 16000 people lost their jobs.

Within a short space of time Virginblue and Qantas had filled the gap. The Air was much fairer than it had been before and more aviation jobs were created than previous.

Since the capacity war of 2013, VAI and QF have both been propping up yields in the domestic market with constrained capacity. For QF times have never been better. For VAI, even under these conditions they have struggled to make a profit.

Time for a new entrant, unconstrained capacity and more jobs.

My advice, employees need to think about their entitlements before Scurrah and his band burn through it all.

You just lost all credibility.

I do feel that SM can’t really say anything else at the moment. He wants SQ (or at least one of the investors) to come forward with the cash. It looks to me like a bit of brinkmanship. If he indicates he will provide the assistance, the investors wallets will close immediately. 11 hour maybe.

Cheers for that gem of an insight champ.

AFR Street Talk reporting that all major shareholders unwilling to put in more equity.

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/virg...0200415-p54jwg

I work for the other mob, but I wish you all the best and understand it must be absolute hell what you’re feeling right now. Especially the ones who went through it before. Or the ones like me who are stood down with a family wondering how the mortgage will look towards the end of the year.

What I can say is the government introduced these measures and strangled our airline industry. It completely restricts our ability to trade. Airlines need forward bookings and consumer confidence.

So therefore there should be a sovereign backing of debt for our airlines, ticket guarantees for consumer confidence and if the airlines can’t meet their debt when this is over, then so be it. However right now they should be afforded life support as necessary to hibernate and be ready to turn on again in the future.

Yes, the government can’t pick winners or losers, but it’s the government who’s done this to its companies and citizens to save its health system and liability. So it’s the government who needs to sort it out.

It’s behind a paywall, any chance of a copy paste :)

Blueskymine 100% correct.
Not just airlines also.

Won’t let me copy.

4/5 Opted out.
1/5 On the fence (Branson)

Virgin Australia's biggest shareholders have passed up a deal to tip in fresh funds and recapitalise the airline, opening up the equity search to outside investors.It is understood Virgin started its equity search with the five shareholders, who together own more than 90 per cent of the airline's shares on issue.

The five shareholders were invited into the data room and shown a deal that would've seen them lead the looming and necessary financial restructure

The equity injection would've happened at the same time as lenders took a steep haircut, and required the existing shareholders to re-invest in the company to retain their place on Virgin's share register.

It is understood the due diligence process finished early this week - and it is at the stage where the five big shareholders have had to opt in or out.
Four of the five opted out, sources said, while the fifth was a "maybe".The four to opt out were Etihad Airways, Singapore Airlines, Nanshan Group and HNA Group, who together own 80 per cent of the company.

The "maybe" was Richard Branson's Virgin Group, whose attachment to the Australian business goes beyond its 10 per cent stake.

Being strategic investors, each has bigger problems closer to home. Airlines across the world have had to ground planes in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and are fighting for survival.

So Virgin's search moves to potential new investors - and it is understood to be particularly keen on Australian investors, in what would be a dramatic overhaul of its share register.

It remains to be seen whether any investors will take the bait. The equity search is running at the same time as a debt restructure, which would be expected to see the company's lenders take a big haircut on their investments.

It also comes as Virgin has gone to Canberra to seek its assistance. Virgin is seeking $1.4 billion in fresh funds, and asked the government to play a role in the mooted bail out.

The government piece is arguably the most material piece of information for any potential investors and has real implications for Virgin's restructure and the airline's future.

Should it all come together, Virgin may be able to avoid administration. If not, then it could become the next Arrium, and be auctioned off to the highest bidder and proceeds handed to creditors by order of seniority.

Equity holders are expected to be wiped out, whichever way the deal goes. The five strategic investors account for about 90 per cent of the share register.

Virgin shares are in a trading halt while the deal plays out. Morgan Stanley and UBS are managing the data room, while restructuring specialist Houlihan Lokey handles the debt side of the equation.

It had $4.8 billion in interest bearing liabilities at December 31 and $900 million in unrestricted cash and short term investments. Its next debt maturity is a $US350 million bond due in October 2021.

The $4.8 billion interest bearing liabilities included $1.8 billion in unsecured bonds, $1.6 billion lease liabilities, $1.2 billion aeronautic finance facilities and $221 million in bank loans. The aeronautic finance facilities and bank loans were secured, according to the company's interim financial report.

The unsecured bonds include the $325 million retail notes and $US425 million institutional notes issued to buy back full control of Velocity Frequent Flyer late last year.

It's a very different capital structure to Arrium, which was the last big workout bankruptcy in Australia. Arrium failed owing more than $4 billion and each of the big four Australian banks were towards the top of the list of creditors.

A quick note to SCo MOs inbox to remind him that if he gets this wrong your vote will go somewhere else is always and sometimes the only way to get their attention. All the other major countries have assisted their airlines and Qantas will also need additional assistance too. Does anyone see any International flying happening in the near term that will keep a fleet busy?

Pointless blaming the government, they didn’t create this virus, nor the pandemic. The government is trying to minimise loss of life. Possibly it’s heavy handed and an overreaction but every politician has an eye towards next weeks headlines. No one wants to be called a callous killer by the baying media - which is precisely what will happen if they stray outside the lines of medical advice and things go pear shaped.

You may disagree with them as to the value of keeping the 80 year old demographic alive versus keeping you in full time work but that’s just a matter of philosophy which can only be answered with hindsight.

There's plenty of people also who will support the govt not guaranteeing the debts or bailing out a company that hasn't made a profit in 8 years, if they do this there's every chance it could collapse at some future point in a depressed post COVID market. I do tho hope they can survive for all's benefit.

The ones that have substantial amount of national ownership, or also helped out foreign owned airlines in their countries? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't heard of any governments bailing out foreign owned airlines recently.

That's not to say I don't feel for anyone who works for VA, of course I do, but there's a business ethics and then a people ethics way of approaching this.

the next election is years away, don’t overestimate the always short memory of the voting public, aside from the 8,000 staff.

A bailout of Qantas is a much more politically easy decision, majority Aussie owned, Aussie icon and making record profits in the years leading up to COVID-19. Plus if they ask for a bailout, it will be 6-12 months into the crisis. The fact that Virgin has asked for this barely a month in, shows how precarious it’s finances were, all the more reason to let it slip.

Just one mans opinion, no offence meant to the staff and I wish the best of luck to you all.

What will the pundits say when Qantas needs bailing out later this year or early next...... QF are not immune. Should the government step in an prop then up?

It's been said before:

Qantas has a 49% cap on foreign ownership.

Virgin is over 91% foreign owned.

Different beasts, actually and politically.

The more pertinent comparison is the assistance given to 100% foreign-owned Rex....

cool. So the line is somewhere between 49% and 91%.
to simplify, can you please state where exactly your line stands??

regardless, the government has openly stated its stance on not picking winners and any support will be on an industry wide basis.

hard to go back on that without recourse. Now for Va or in 6 months for QF.

If they're broadly going to industries rather than poorly run companies, as per your quote, then yes, I'd support it. As an aside, I have no Jobkeeper monies to pay back as I'm ineligible.
Ergo, you'd rather Trumps solution where everything remains open and...let me just check the current numbers...26,033 have died.

There's a high chance of that happening, but the ALP is a bit like SIA, all talk no action. I recall Beasley sitting on an Ansett tug telling us all what he'd do if he was in power. When they did get into power, they didn't want to know us!

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...-meet-payrolls

Read this Scomo.

50.01%. Virgin is a majority foreign owned company, Qantas is not. It was sold like that for a reason - so it remained an Australian owned company.

The government should have told Rex to get stuffed.

The difference here is that Rex are profitable, and Virgin are not. They have a debt of over $5b, and couldn't make money when the times were good. They definitely wont be making money when the times are bad, and they definitely wont be making money post COVID-19 without significant changes and a restructure. I don't want my $1.4b tax payer dollars spent on a gamble.

How is Rex 100% foreign owned when it is a publicly listed company trading freely on the share market?

wishiwasupthere said so at post #495.

Maybe someone said something on pprune that's not accurate...

REX is not 100% foreign owned. In fact the top 20 shareholders only own 86.8% of the company. You would be surprised at who owns small holdings in REX. REX is up 23% today on the ASX.

REX know the SF340 is too small for the larger markets in the ADL-MEL-CBR-SYD incl Tasmania golden triangle. They are looking at larger aircraft again. This makes 3 airlines who are interested in commencing an operation cherry picking routes. Watch this space when the wheels fall off VA.

Etihad have squandered billions on questionable investments in the airline world and may end up merging with Emirates so they aren't in a position to step up to the plate.

HNA group is a similar position to Virgin and is having to restructure its own debts. https://www.scmp.com/business/compan...ea-time-caused

That takes two of the bigger five out of the equation. Richard Branson is the smallest of the five and will not want to risk his entire fortune.

That leaves the Nanshan Group which is one of China's largest companies and already has airline interests amongst its diversified holdings, together with Singapore Airlines left in the running.

A tie up between these two might be on the cards with Nanshan fronting the bulk of the cash and SIA kicking in some money and the management expertise. The fate of Virgin could be in the hands of a labyrinth of Chinese business networks. Taking a loss on their current positions might be worthwhile if they can acquire a new entity in restructured form, free of debt. Around 60 - 70 B737s operating on cherry picked routes with the infrastructure already in place might turn a profit within a reasonable timeframe once restrictions are lifted.

Nanshan and the "So-called Saviour" Singapore has already ruled themselves out of putting more equity in Virgin Australia - See the news article in Reply 503.

4 out of 5 shareholders in Australia had declined putting in more equity. The only shareholder on the fence is Virgin Group/Richard Branson.

Only way that the "so-called Saviour" Singapore is going to get involved is if they pick up the VA assets at a liquidation sale. Then again, they'd be questioned whether if they can actually run a airline company in Australia, they've had 3 failed attempts already. (including VA).

You’re kidding right?

If VA come out the other side of this they will more than likely resemble the Virgin Blue of the old days rather than the modest fleet you speak of.
Everyone agrees recovery will be slow... and you’ve got them flying around 70 737’s???