Virgin Australia - Phoenix Rising from the Ashes?
Funny as **** though. Got to agree though, I'd be pretty pissed if I got first prize over second.
The upside potential is large. The downside risk is Bain/JH.
They were not the only bidders even back wthen it was dire.
Last edited by t_cas; 28th Apr 2022 at 12:27.
I'm talking about the current situation. Obviously if Bain decide to sell then JH is out of there to take her wrecking ball approach to some other unfortunate company.
Certainly is much upside for personal bank accounts of current executives when that time comes to offload. Talking tens of millions here, each. Why else would the Woolworths ex CFO who resided over $50b revenue on $6m a year, join some $4b outfit.
Current situation yes.
JH could be ousted on a whim. This only cares about money. How they achieve it is the potential downside.
Make money? Never any doubt. For who? That’s the billion dollar question.
. V1bang ..........With the dust settling from the Virgin Australia administration there seems to be new rumours on the ramp regarding the future of VA and VARA.
Latest news suggests Bain capital are investing in Virgins future for the long term despite reports they wanted to float the company next year (2023). With major debt ties finally cut it seems the airline has no where to go than up.
.........I miss the presence that Virgin once had in Australian aviation. I miss seeing their 330’s running East-West and tripplers running to LAX. I hope to see this amazing airline achieve huge success in the future because we all know at times they offer a damn lot more than other airlines do in this country..........
Red69...........Have a look at the profits Qantas were bringing in pre covid. VA have a very low cost base now. Additionally they have much better management; people who are actually incentivised to turn a profit.
Not saying it will happen overnight but it could well happen in the next 5 years when they have a bigger network which could include wide body operations.........
........VA has new management, new owners, a new strategy, less debt and a new cost base. It is only similar to the old VA by name.
Qf has the same (albeit great) management however a lot more debt.
Both airlines will continue to survive and be extremely profitable.
Latest news suggests Bain capital are investing in Virgins future for the long term despite reports they wanted to float the company next year (2023). With major debt ties finally cut it seems the airline has no where to go than up.
.........I miss the presence that Virgin once had in Australian aviation. I miss seeing their 330’s running East-West and tripplers running to LAX. I hope to see this amazing airline achieve huge success in the future because we all know at times they offer a damn lot more than other airlines do in this country..........
Red69...........Have a look at the profits Qantas were bringing in pre covid. VA have a very low cost base now. Additionally they have much better management; people who are actually incentivised to turn a profit.
Not saying it will happen overnight but it could well happen in the next 5 years when they have a bigger network which could include wide body operations.........
........VA has new management, new owners, a new strategy, less debt and a new cost base. It is only similar to the old VA by name.
Qf has the same (albeit great) management however a lot more debt.
Both airlines will continue to survive and be extremely profitable.
Hear is a hint boys and girls; if you are going to run an Astroturf campaign then your current two sock puppets shouldn't start posting within 24 hours of each other, nor be relatively new users and should have some pretense of a varied posting history.
Last edited by Sunfish; 28th Apr 2022 at 21:27.
Yes wow.
New management are making smart decisions. They are in it to make money. While staff get screwed, they can at least be assured of a job and a future. They have previously spent 10 years working under management that made a loss and teetered on the edge of going under until it happened.
VA with a single type is essentially going to be the South West of Australia. If they can replicate the profitability and culture of SWA, well then I think most folks will be happy.
New management are making smart decisions. They are in it to make money. While staff get screwed, they can at least be assured of a job and a future. They have previously spent 10 years working under management that made a loss and teetered on the edge of going under until it happened.
VA with a single type is essentially going to be the South West of Australia. If they can replicate the profitability and culture of SWA, well then I think most folks will be happy.
VA with a single type is essentially going to be the South West of Australia. If they can replicate the profitability and culture of SWA, well then I think most folks will be happy.
A lot of us said that's what they should have aimed for back before it was VA. The whole compete with QF full service was just stupid, where they had a huge opportunity to become a streamlined single type operator. Then BG getting the Ejets started the rot when they should have swallowed some pride and signed code share with Rex instead of going to war with competitors that had strong positions they should have defined their own position and filled it out. Although it seems the Australian way is to just send each other bankrupt with childish 'flood the competition' rather than seek innovative ways to attract customers and retain staff, and then realise too late, oops that sends us broke as well.
QF is slowly but surely sending itself broke with the flooding mentality. The company has gone from a huge tangible business to something that if sold off today would leave the shareholders owning money to fold it up. And even if they beat VA and Rex at the domestic game, by the time it's done the next entrant will start up and so on and on. GA died the same way, CASA had a hand, but a lot of the large operators believe that undercutting is the only way to do business. Anyone who thinks $6 billion of debt is going to suddenly vaporise when rates are going up has to be kidding. Even at 5% that's $300million in profit going to keep the debt at $6B, Ie Rex annual revenue just to stop debt spiraling.
A partial Jetstar float would solve the debt issue. However he wouldn’t do that to his precious baby. Next executive in might. I think that would be a better long term option for the Star employees also.
QF is slowly but surely sending itself broke with the flooding mentality. The company has gone from a huge tangible business to something that if sold off today would leave the shareholders owning money to fold it up. And even if they beat VA and Rex at the domestic game, by the time it's done the next entrant will start up and so on and on. GA died the same way, CASA had a hand, but a lot of the large operators believe that undercutting is the only way to do business. Anyone who thinks $6 billion of debt is going to suddenly vaporise when rates are going up has to be kidding. Even at 5% that's $300million in profit going to keep the debt at $6B, Ie Rex annual revenue just to stop debt spiraling.
“So quick is its pivot that top stock picker Mark Landau – from L1 Capital – believes Qantas’s share price is set to surge. “I think the shares could double over the next couple years if management can achieve their (financial year 2024) targets,” says Landau”
And this
“Landau’s prediction puts Qantas shares at about $11 over two years, while 12-month predictions from investment bank equity analysts range from $7.10 a share at Morgan Stanley, $6.90 at Barrenjoey, $6.40 at JPMorgan, and $6.30 at Jarden. Qantas shares closed at $5.31 on Wednesday.”
That’s less debt than pre-Covid apparently and that was when they were making $1B profit.
