Covid Shot - Side Effects?
It appears that the risk of losing your medical is infinitely higher from the virus than the vaccine. Collapsed lungs, heart problems, long-term fatigue, blood clots etc are starting to mount with long Covid becoming a real issue. Don’t get sucked into the ‘survival rate’. Survival does not equal recovery.
Novel mRNA technology and (by definition) no long term safety data yet. Any pilot who can Notice, Understand & Think Ahead might want to conduct a very careful risk-benefit analysis before rushing into these vaccines, given the fragility of a Class 1 medical.
Astrazeneca is a vector vaccine, so its basically antigen cells from a chimpanzee grafted onto an inert virus that stimulates your immune system to react, it focuses on a similar protein as the lure/activator. A difference in the AZ method is that the inert virus actually stimulates your antigens into a little overdrive as well as providing a cue for resistance.
Both vaccines work differently, but achieve the same thing, activating your immune system to do its's own thing. The vaccine in itself is not defeating Covid, your own immune system is.
Medical wise, FAA yes grounds you for 48 hours following any Covid vaccination, after then side effects determine return to work. I know a number of US pilots who are now grounded due to covid directly, particularly due to lung issues. Also the well known case of the BA pilot who died from it after a 4 month battle.
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Can I ask how you have calculated that percentage please?
The UK data of about 50 deaths from around 30.8 million doses administered would be 0.00016 percent. If you were to do a rudimentary conversion of doses administered to people fully vaccinated by dividing the former by two, the percentage rises to 0.00032 percent. The Australian data of seven deaths from 6.8 million doses administered yields 0.0001 percent of doses administered and 0.0002 percent of those fully vaccinated.
Might you be out by an order of magnitude?
The UK data of about 50 deaths from around 30.8 million doses administered would be 0.00016 percent. If you were to do a rudimentary conversion of doses administered to people fully vaccinated by dividing the former by two, the percentage rises to 0.00032 percent. The Australian data of seven deaths from 6.8 million doses administered yields 0.0001 percent of doses administered and 0.0002 percent of those fully vaccinated.
Might you be out by an order of magnitude?
10 points to turbantime for his: "Don’t get sucked into the ‘survival rate’. Survival does not equal recovery."
We stopped the AZ vaccine early after 3 deaths, so the total number of vaccinated was rather low, around 120-130000. Around 0,0025 %
Canada temporarily suspended AstraZeneca after three deaths there in mid-May. At that time they had administered over 2 million doses of AstraZeneca.
Last edited by MickG0105; 9th Aug 2021 at 00:26. Reason: Correction, clarification around linked deaths
Australia had passed 130,000 doses of AstraZeneca being administered by late March. The first deaths linked to AstraZeneca anywhere weren't reported until April. The third death in Australia linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine was in early July. Well over 5 million doses of AstraZeneca had been administered by then.
AstraZeneca has not been used in the US apart from Phase III trials. There were no deaths in those trials. There is currently no FDA emergency use authorisation.
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Just did my Class 1, and no change in blood pressure from pre vaccines.
Israel now reports a sharp increase of Delta Covid cases. They have the highest % of vaccinated in the world. The majority of cases are in the unvaccinated part of the population, so the vaccines do work. They do however have a lower protection against serious disease (about 40%) if you are vaccinated and get infected with the Delta strain.
I predict a tough year ahead for Australia.
Israel now reports a sharp increase of Delta Covid cases. They have the highest % of vaccinated in the world. The majority of cases are in the unvaccinated part of the population, so the vaccines do work. They do however have a lower protection against serious disease (about 40%) if you are vaccinated and get infected with the Delta strain.
I predict a tough year ahead for Australia.
Last edited by MickG0105; 12th Aug 2021 at 01:32. Reason: Typo
That is not what the data shows. Israel maintains an outstanding publicly available Coronavirus dashboard. It shows >80 percent efficacy against serious illness amongst the fully vaccinated and around 60 percent efficacy against serious illness amongst the partially vaccinated (one dose).
Can I ask how you have calculated that percentage please?
The UK data of about 50 deaths from around 30.8 million doses administered would be 0.00016 percent. If you were to do a rudimentary conversion of doses administered to people fully vaccinated by dividing the former by two, the percentage rises to 0.00032 percent. The Australian data of seven deaths from 6.8 million doses administered yields 0.0001 percent of doses administered and 0.0002 percent of those fully vaccinated.
Might you be out by an order of magnitude?
The UK data of about 50 deaths from around 30.8 million doses administered would be 0.00016 percent. If you were to do a rudimentary conversion of doses administered to people fully vaccinated by dividing the former by two, the percentage rises to 0.00032 percent. The Australian data of seven deaths from 6.8 million doses administered yields 0.0001 percent of doses administered and 0.0002 percent of those fully vaccinated.
Might you be out by an order of magnitude?
Myocarditis and pericarditis is about 1/50,000. Interestingly doesn't receive much media attention.
One thing that's obvious from this sad period of human history is that most can not understand how to interpret statistics.
When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.
If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.
For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.
If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.
Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.
To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.
Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.
When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.
If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.
For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.
If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.
Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.
To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.
Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.
Last edited by 43Inches; 14th Aug 2021 at 01:20.
One thing that's obvious from this sad period of human history is that most can not understand how to interpret statistics.
When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.
If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.
For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.
If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.
Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.
To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.
Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.
When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.
If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.
For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.
If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.
Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.
To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.
Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.
Im not sure who you are directing this at 43? I'm pretty strong on bio stats and epidemiology and can bore you to death at a Covid party on positive predictive values, risk ratio's and the differences between specificity and sensitivity. But you're right from the aspect that everything we do in life, including flying a plane involves an element of risk. Each of us just has varying degrees of acceptance of that risk. When it comes to vaccine's again there is a risk, but like you said, it's incredibly small. Is it not worth talking about? No, as everyone should be fully aware of what those risks are, but they're incredibly small too. In the words of Gladys, vaccines offer "Green Shoots!"
I just looked up some stats, and a Lawn Mower has about 1:10,000 chance of maiming a user. Shopping trollies have about a 1:20,000 chance of causing injury to a user requiring hospitalisation. Just silly numbers that wouldn't stop you using either.
Last edited by 43Inches; 14th Aug 2021 at 03:13.
It's a general comment not aimed at anyone in particular. However stats beyond 1:10000 are so negligible that general life risks exceed them therefore it's really not worth mentioning. My point being the effects of sub 1:100 stats are noticeable, you would notice the dead for instance what happened in NY with freezer trucks full of bodies. Where getting anxious over 1:100,000 stats of getting a clot just is needless worry over something that is not a "risk" per se. And we can see how the general public responded to that overall. Over 1:10,000 you have already passed your chance of lopping a finger off with a mower today, or falling off a ladder and breaking a hip territory.
I just looked up some stats, and a Lawn Mower has about 1:10,000 chance of maiming a user. Shopping trollies have about a 1:20,000 chance of causing injury to a user requiring hospitalisation. Just silly numbers that wouldn't stop you using either.
I just looked up some stats, and a Lawn Mower has about 1:10,000 chance of maiming a user. Shopping trollies have about a 1:20,000 chance of causing injury to a user requiring hospitalisation. Just silly numbers that wouldn't stop you using either.