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Covid Shot - Side Effects?

Old 8th Aug 2021, 23:55
  #421 (permalink)  
 
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Novel mRNA technology and (by definition) no long term safety data yet. Any pilot who can Notice, Understand & Think Ahead might want to conduct a very careful risk-benefit analysis before rushing into these vaccines, given the fragility of a Class 1 medical.
mRNA vaccines do not play with your DNA or alter it in anyway. The Pfizer vaccine creates a replicating 'foreign' protein molecule that your immune system sees as foreign and activates. Your immune system then does everything naturally, no vaccine assistance at all, all it's doing is being say the rabbit at a greyhound race, getting all your bodys defenses to race in one direction and seek out that protein. How it works vs Covid, the same protein is found on the surface of Covid virus, so it teaches your immune system to latch onto that protein and see it as harmful and foreign.

Astrazeneca is a vector vaccine, so its basically antigen cells from a chimpanzee grafted onto an inert virus that stimulates your immune system to react, it focuses on a similar protein as the lure/activator. A difference in the AZ method is that the inert virus actually stimulates your antigens into a little overdrive as well as providing a cue for resistance.

Both vaccines work differently, but achieve the same thing, activating your immune system to do its's own thing. The vaccine in itself is not defeating Covid, your own immune system is.

Medical wise, FAA yes grounds you for 48 hours following any Covid vaccination, after then side effects determine return to work. I know a number of US pilots who are now grounded due to covid directly, particularly due to lung issues. Also the well known case of the BA pilot who died from it after a 4 month battle.



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Old 9th Aug 2021, 00:28
  #422 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Can I ask how you have calculated that percentage please?

The UK data of about 50 deaths from around 30.8 million doses administered would be 0.00016 percent. If you were to do a rudimentary conversion of doses administered to people fully vaccinated by dividing the former by two, the percentage rises to 0.00032 percent. The Australian data of seven deaths from 6.8 million doses administered yields 0.0001 percent of doses administered and 0.0002 percent of those fully vaccinated.

Might you be out by an order of magnitude?
I'm sure your numbers are correct. We stopped the AZ vaccine early after 3 deaths, so the total number of vaccinated was rather low, around 120-130000. Around 0,0025 %

10 points to turbantime for his: "Don’t get sucked into the ‘survival rate’. Survival does not equal recovery."
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Old 9th Aug 2021, 00:34
  #423 (permalink)  
 
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We stopped the AZ vaccine early after 3 deaths, so the total number of vaccinated was rather low, around 120-130000. Around 0,0025 %
I'd have to look into it further, but i'm pretty sure the US version of AZ was from two different sources to the Australian ones. Which for whatever reason had a different rating and were for emergency use only, some sort of manufacturing detail.
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Old 9th Aug 2021, 01:05
  #424 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem View Post
We stopped the AZ vaccine early after 3 deaths, so the total number of vaccinated was rather low, around 120-130000. Around 0,0025 %
Australia had passed 130,000 doses of AstraZeneca being administered by late March. While there had been some deaths suspected of being linked to AstraZeneca reported in March the first deaths confirmed to be linked to AstraZeneca anywhere weren't reported until April. The third death in Australia linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine was in early July. Well over 5 million doses of AstraZeneca had been administered by then.

Canada temporarily suspended AstraZeneca after three deaths there in mid-May. At that time they had administered over 2 million doses of AstraZeneca.

Last edited by MickG0105; 9th Aug 2021 at 01:26. Reason: Correction, clarification around linked deaths
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Old 9th Aug 2021, 01:15
  #425 (permalink)  
 
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Australia had passed 130,000 doses of AstraZeneca being administered by late March. The first deaths linked to AstraZeneca anywhere weren't reported until April. The third death in Australia linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine was in early July. Well over 5 million doses of AstraZeneca had been administered by then.
Sweden and Denmark, as well as Germany and France temporarily suspended AZ in March due to cases of clotting and deaths continuing since it's introduction in Dec 2020. All except Sweden restarted using it after an analyses of the numbers showed the vaccine safe and only very low cases of this reaction. In late 2020 prior to introduction of AZ there was questions regarding it's testing and efficacy results in regard to an number of factors that also led to it being dragged through the mud by the press. All those questions have been answered in subsequent testing and analyses.
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Old 9th Aug 2021, 01:16
  #426 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
I'd have to look into it further, but i'm pretty sure the US version of AZ was from two different sources to the Australian ones. Which for whatever reason had a different rating and were for emergency use only, some sort of manufacturing detail.
AstraZeneca has not been used in the US apart from Phase III trials. There were no deaths in those trials. There is currently no FDA emergency use authorisation.
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Old 9th Aug 2021, 01:24
  #427 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
Sweden and Denmark, as well as Germany and France temporarily suspended AZ in March due to cases of clotting and deaths continuing since it's introduction in Dec 2020.
Yes, my blue. It was early March when the first death thought to be related to AZ was reported.
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Old 9th Aug 2021, 07:50
  #428 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry, guys, I forgot to tell you I live in Euroland.
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Old 11th Aug 2021, 13:48
  #429 (permalink)  
 
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Just did my Class 1, and no change in blood pressure from pre vaccines.
Israel now reports a sharp increase of Delta Covid cases. They have the highest % of vaccinated in the world. The majority of cases are in the unvaccinated part of the population, so the vaccines do work. They do however have a lower protection against serious disease (about 40%) if you are vaccinated and get infected with the Delta strain.

I predict a tough year ahead for Australia.
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Old 11th Aug 2021, 22:42
  #430 (permalink)  
 
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Second AZ yesterday
No noticeable effect whatsoever
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Old 12th Aug 2021, 01:41
  #431 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem View Post
Israel now reports a sharp increase of Delta Covid cases. They have the highest % of vaccinated in the world.
That's a common misconception. Israel has around 60 percent of the total population vaccinated (nearly 80 percent of the adult population). The UAE, Malta, Iceland, Singapore, Belgium, Canada all have higher rates of vaccination.

Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem View Post
The majority of cases are in the unvaccinated part of the population, so the vaccines do work. They do however have a lower protection against serious disease (about 40%) if you are vaccinated and get infected with the Delta strain.
That is not what the data shows. Israel maintains an outstanding publicly available Coronavirus dashboard. It shows >80 percent efficacy against serious illness amongst the fully vaccinated and around 60 percent efficacy against serious illness amongst the partially vaccinated (one dose).

Last edited by MickG0105; 12th Aug 2021 at 02:32. Reason: Typo
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Old 12th Aug 2021, 13:55
  #432 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
That is not what the data shows. Israel maintains an outstanding publicly available Coronavirus dashboard. It shows >80 percent efficacy against serious illness amongst the fully vaccinated and around 60 percent efficacy against serious illness amongst the partially vaccinated (one dose).
How does one access the English version of this site?
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Old 12th Aug 2021, 22:56
  #433 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by turbantime View Post
How does one access the English version of this site?
Good question. I just let Google translate do its thing.



Last edited by MickG0105; 12th Aug 2021 at 22:58. Reason: Tidy up
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Old 13th Aug 2021, 01:20
  #434 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Good question. I just let Google translate do its thing.
Thanks mate
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Old 14th Aug 2021, 01:28
  #435 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MickG0105 View Post
Can I ask how you have calculated that percentage please?

The UK data of about 50 deaths from around 30.8 million doses administered would be 0.00016 percent. If you were to do a rudimentary conversion of doses administered to people fully vaccinated by dividing the former by two, the percentage rises to 0.00032 percent. The Australian data of seven deaths from 6.8 million doses administered yields 0.0001 percent of doses administered and 0.0002 percent of those fully vaccinated.

Might you be out by an order of magnitude?
Not quite. The second dose rates of TTP is close to 1 in 1 million with fatalities only about 15%. So we are talking 0.00001% at best for 2nd dose.

Myocarditis and pericarditis is about 1/50,000. Interestingly doesn't receive much media attention.
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Old 14th Aug 2021, 01:43
  #436 (permalink)  
 
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One thing that's obvious from this sad period of human history is that most can not understand how to interpret statistics.

When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.

If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.

For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.

If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.

Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.

To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.

Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.

Last edited by 43Inches; 14th Aug 2021 at 02:20.
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Old 14th Aug 2021, 03:37
  #437 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
One thing that's obvious from this sad period of human history is that most can not understand how to interpret statistics.

When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.

If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.

For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.

If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.

Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.

To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.

Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.
Im not sure who you are directing this at 43? I'm pretty strong on bio stats and epidemiology and can bore you to death at a Covid party on positive predictive values, risk ratio's and the differences between specificity and sensitivity. But you're right from the aspect that everything we do in life, including flying a plane involves an element of risk. Each of us just has varying degrees of acceptance of that risk. When it comes to vaccine's again there is a risk, but like you said, it's incredibly small. Is it not worth talking about? No, as everyone should be fully aware of what those risks are, but they're incredibly small too. In the words of Gladys, vaccines offer "Green Shoots!"
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Old 14th Aug 2021, 04:00
  #438 (permalink)  
 
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Im not sure who you are directing this at 43? I'm pretty strong on bio stats and epidemiology and can bore you to death at a Covid party on positive predictive values, risk ratio's and the differences between specificity and sensitivity. But you're right from the aspect that everything we do in life, including flying a plane involves an element of risk. Each of us just has varying degrees of acceptance of that risk. When it comes to vaccine's again there is a risk, but like you said, it's incredibly small. Is it not worth talking about? No, as everyone should be fully aware of what those risks are, but they're incredibly small too. In the words of Gladys, vaccines offer "Green Shoots!"
It's a general comment not aimed at anyone in particular. However stats beyond 1:10000 are so negligible that general life risks exceed them therefore it's really not worth mentioning. My point being the effects of sub 1:100 stats are noticeable, you would notice the dead for instance what happened in NY with freezer trucks full of bodies. Where getting anxious over 1:100,000 stats of getting a clot just is needless worry over something that is not a "risk" per se. And we can see how the general public responded to that overall. Over 1:10,000 you have already passed your chance of lopping a finger off with a mower today, or falling off a ladder and breaking a hip territory.

I just looked up some stats, and a Lawn Mower has about 1:10,000 chance of maiming a user. Shopping trollies have about a 1:20,000 chance of causing injury to a user requiring hospitalisation. Just silly numbers that wouldn't stop you using either.

Last edited by 43Inches; 14th Aug 2021 at 04:13.
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Old 14th Aug 2021, 05:44
  #439 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches View Post
It's a general comment not aimed at anyone in particular. However stats beyond 1:10000 are so negligible that general life risks exceed them therefore it's really not worth mentioning. My point being the effects of sub 1:100 stats are noticeable, you would notice the dead for instance what happened in NY with freezer trucks full of bodies. Where getting anxious over 1:100,000 stats of getting a clot just is needless worry over something that is not a "risk" per se. And we can see how the general public responded to that overall. Over 1:10,000 you have already passed your chance of lopping a finger off with a mower today, or falling off a ladder and breaking a hip territory.

I just looked up some stats, and a Lawn Mower has about 1:10,000 chance of maiming a user. Shopping trollies have about a 1:20,000 chance of causing injury to a user requiring hospitalisation. Just silly numbers that wouldn't stop you using either.
Yes agree, but I hate these comparisons. Compare apples with applies. Eg Risk of death from blood clots between AZ and Pfizer. That's more meaningful. Secondly, there's a difference between maiming of finger compared to 25-75% of death with a cerebral thromboembolism. The likelihood is extremely low, but the outcome is reasonably bad (more of a better term-cant really get worse than death). But again the initial risk is extremely low. Just don't make indirect comparisons.
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Old 14th Aug 2021, 07:47
  #440 (permalink)  
 
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Secondly, there's a difference between maiming of finger compared to 25-75% of death with a cerebral thromboembolism. The likelihood is extremely low, but the outcome is reasonably bad (more of a better term-cant really get worse than death). But again the initial risk is extremely low. Just don't make indirect comparisons.
From an empathetic point of view death is the worst.

From an economic point of view maiming and disability are far worse.

Out of $1000 car registration will cost in the coming years per annum, 75% is CTP. That is not to cover your death, that is to cover mostly injury and recovery compensation.

The reason statistics in this area are so thorough is that companies pay for them to be accurate to be able to quantify risk assessment. Risk of death is fairly to the back of most peoples mind as humans are not as easy to kill as we might think, but we are easy to damage. Hence life insurance, cheap, health insurance, horribly expensive. The problem with throwing 1:1000 or 1:1000000 around, to the layman, it still has 1 in front of it, so it's somehow all similar, "oh but there's a chance i die". You can put 100 zeros after the decimal in a percentage chance and to the uneducated the number somehow looks bigger.

The comparison I made was stated for simpletons, comparing AZ to Pf for the average human is not even relevant, they should just take whatever they are given, subject to them having any conditions relevant to either, the chance of side effects is minuscule. Other nations you turn up and get vaccinated, no one gets a choice of vaccine.
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