Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Qantas...Post COVID

Old 23rd Mar 2021, 08:18
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
Not sure where you got 12%. I count 109 pilots aged 60 or above as at 31 Mar 2021. 2027 pilots are currently on the seniority list. That's closer to 5%.

There are a couple of pinch points coming. First is the lack of A330 Captains when ramping that fleet up. They will need to come from somewhere and I suspect part of the reason why 737 training has recommenced. A 747 RIN won't even touch the sides of addressing the 56 A330 Captains that left with VR/ER.

The next pinch point is the A380. If it returns then I suspect 7-8 aeroplanes worth of flying (and probably 9 jets to allow a spare given they're fully written down). If it doesn't come back until November 2023 they are going to need 30-40 Captains trained on that fleet at roughly the same time as the A350 may be coming down range requiring crew to be trained. That results in a scenario where you are training people onto the A330 to release 30 Captains to the A330 as well as trying to train another 30 Captains on top to release A330 Captains for A350 training- at least in the initial stages. If they bring the A380 back prior to November 2023 (which I reckon will occur more towards the end of next year.... though hopefully closer to mid next year) then that certainly decreases that training pinch at the end of 2023.

The other question is A380 crew. If that aeroplane is coming back before the end of 2022 you wouldn't bother sending any crew across to the A330. If it's not coming back until November 2023 you may decide to bring a bunch of A380 pilots to the A330 for 18 months from Feb next year. This won't start to become more clear until later this year when we start to hear about future quarantine requirements post vaccine roll out.

There may also be a few more 787s somewhere in that mix too.

So whilst I don't see the need for recruiting this year, from the middle of 2022 onward and through to when the A350 is introduced could be quite busy for training on all fleets.



You bet! Certainly light at the end of the tunnel. I don't think it's an oncoming train but we won't be sure of that for a while yet.

you might find that training start dates were given to those crew with deferred slots on the 737 as a certain LH captain wanted all slots thrown back into the mix for the senior crew to nab. By doing it now Iím told it avoids the need for agreement to defer again.happy to be corrected but given the person involved it would t be surprising at all.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 10:21
  #22 (permalink)  
Keg

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goodonyamate, I suspect that was considered more an Ďadded bonusí rather than primary reason.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:04
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:09
  #24 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post
Well this is what Professor Murphy said two days ago
ďIím hopeful that pretty good international travel will happen next year, but itís just too early to tell,Ē
Doesn't this mean that international travel "might" start early 2022 ?

Some of the posts above the normal Aussie ott superlative speak , the A380s are coming back , when the A350s arrive - they haven't even been ordered
, training , promotion , recruitment - very excitable talk. It's all going gangbusters - gee we do the blow hard part well in Australia

Right now domestic RPT uplift is about 20% & international is 0%. If domestic is at a steady 50% two years in that would be excellent & I think getting international
back to 50% two years after commencement would also be fantastic (but that is 2024)

Does anyone really think that Australia will open to USA , EU in 2022 ?

Do you really think guys WA /Qld premiers would allow that , not to mention the flighty fellow in Vic

I'd be happy if we just got to NZ & 4 or 5 countries in Asia
You literally have no clue.

February 2020 - 1800 domestic flights / day
this bottomed out at 220

Fast forward to last week - The domestic market saw 1500 flights.

Fair to say itís recovering nicely. International will be the same albeit at a slower rate.

Australia will open to UK and USA by November. Quarantine requirements are still to be seen. With both countries well over 80% vaccinated by then, why shouldnít there be quarantine free travel??



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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:13
  #25 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by The_Equaliser View Post
Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.
Maybe you didnít pay your $20 / month 😂

incredible...thatís for another day
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:16
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Flew probably 12 Syd-Mel sectors in the last week. Half full and not sustainable. They recovery is thin at best.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:17
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Fully paid and member 25years. Answer the question, or are you a no nothing ******.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:23
  #28 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by The_Equaliser View Post
Fully paid and member 25years. Answer the question, or are you a no nothing ******.
If youíre a member then why donít you ask AIPA instead of here? 🤷🏼

Surely after 25 years you would know how to consult a union on any EA breaches.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:28
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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I would be looking at the data from Bitre , the pax carried , not sure how the number of aircraft taking off has anything to do with
pax numbers

Think Jan/Feb 2021 will be 20 to 25% , tops 30% of 2019

We have a long way to go with domestic, lots of Aussie CEOs are saying they pretty much have a no travel policy atm

"It's been confirmed October ramp up will be 40%" - you better get QF to instruct PM & Murphy how & when international travel is going to work
Must be some law I haven't heard of that declares QF execs as final arbiters re: opening international borders after a pandemic

Why oh why do we have this relentless blow hard / boasting stuff from QF execs ? (back to 80% domestic by July 2020 etc etc etc)

Surely the ignore reality approach creates unrealistic expectations from staff & then subsequent disappointment

Last edited by Telfer86; 24th Mar 2021 at 00:05.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:48
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Did AIPA provide any information about the decision to resume training?
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 11:53
  #31 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by The_Equaliser View Post
Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.
All 737 crew are stood up from 29 March. I’m not sure the planned hours but I think it’s forecast to exceed MGH and increase on top of that in the coming months. 737 hours are forecast to exceed pre Covid levels before the end of this year. (Whether or not this occurs is another thing depending on what happens with borders/ vaccines/ etc).

Qantas decided on their own to start these courses and AIPA has done no ‘deal’ regarding them. Given that there is no variation to the SHEA (not that a variation can occur without members voting on it anyway..... which I’m sure every mainline pilot knows by now) I’m not sure what consultation you expect to have taken place? If you’re concerned about what the company has done email the COM and voice your concerns. Ranting on PPRuNe about a SHEA variation that doesn’t exist certainly isn’t going to achieve anything.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 13:30
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fujiroll76 View Post
You literally have no clue.

February 2020 - 1800 domestic flights / day
this bottomed out at 220

Fast forward to last week - The domestic market saw 1500 flights.

Fair to say itís recovering nicely. International will be the same albeit at a slower rate.

Australia will open to UK and USA by November. Quarantine requirements are still to be seen. With both countries well over 80% vaccinated by then, why shouldnít there be quarantine free travel??
What was the load factor on those flights? If you don't know then you have no clue. Flying around empty airplanes isn't a recovery.

As for quarantine free travel, politicians do what keeps them getting re elected, not what is best for the country.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 18:25
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The_Equaliser View Post
Flew probably 12 Syd-Mel sectors in the last week. Half full and not sustainable. They recovery is thin at best.
As someone looking from afar, how does this route sustain so many flights? Surely having 50% LFs are not unusual?
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 19:17
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Iím not sure of how the training is happening. However if training early is the only way to stop those slots being thrown back for bidding, and it gets people who actually wanted to be on the 737 back to work, rather than allowing the super senior who will just go back to the 380 when it comes back anyway come across, Iím happy with that. Itís another handful of people working who would otherwise be stood down.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 22:27
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The_Equaliser View Post
Did AIPA provide any information about the decision to resume training?
Mate, the slots were originally advertised at a time when divisors on the 73 triggered training, in accordance with the Award.

These same slots were deferred 12 months, which was approved by AIPA (in 2020), in accordance with the Award.

Can you show me where is says that divisors have to REMAIN above the trigger in order to continue training people? I canít find it.

How do you feel left out by AIPA?
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 22:30
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Training is happening because of forward projection of flying, with a net increase of 737 hours (from pre- COVID) of over 10% after July- it's only a forecast, grain of salt, nobody knows, blah blah..
There is training now even thought he long term trigger (is 68hrs? or 73?) has not been met, because there is nothing written in EBA8 as that being a requirement, therefore it it the Company's interpretation...so those with an allocated slot or those who were already training when it stopped will be recommencing on Monday (good luck all!).
All 737 are stood up for BP 3415....Rosters are out in the next two days, Slack is saying about 62-64 as divisor.
.....As for the above statement about Load Factors..depends which sector. I flew some CNS & BNE sectors last week- they were ALL over 80%, so much so that the A330 is slated for CNS flying next BP. Have a look at FIDS. Melbourne and Perth are soft, people have low risk tolerance now, and don't want 14 days isolation at minimal notice.

I am going to say this again, there is many people on this RUMOUR network who hate QF, who have zero idea about our EA's or IR. If you don't know, don't come here looking for answers- ring your Base Manager, ring AIPA, ring a mate on the COM (or not), before you read the BS here.
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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 23:59
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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because there is nothing written in EBA8 as that being a requirement
It’s in the integration award, not the EA.


here is what it says:
9 - INCREASE IN SHORT HAUL PILOT ESTABLISHMENT
In deciding whether an increased establishment of pilots on short haul aircraft is necessary, the determinant factor will be a divisor of not less than 73 pay hours per month taken on average over a projected period of one year, with due allowance for leave.

Last edited by Chad Gates; 24th Mar 2021 at 00:22.
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Old 24th Mar 2021, 01:03
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Telfer just wants to spout his incessant negativity. His predictions of mass sackings amongst crew are looking more and more foolish by the day, so now he is making up stats about the flying that is happening.

As this discussion largely revolves around the pilots getting back to work (or even being recruited), then pax stats are NOT the important issue. The number of flights and stood up crew is the determining factor and they are looking great for 737 crew and for those soon to start 737 training.

Qantas used to make half a billion dollars profit flying domestically with ~80% load factor. Is it hard to believe they would cover their costs flying at 50%? This gets people back to work, protects/grows market share and offsets aircraft fixed costs.

Things are looking up at long last, some just canít bare to admit it.
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Old 24th Mar 2021, 01:20
  #39 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Climb150 View Post
What was the load factor on those flights? If you don't know then you have no clue. Flying around empty airplanes isn't a recovery.

As for quarantine free travel, politicians do what keeps them getting re elected, not what is best for the country.
As per the town hall this morning. Load factors are considerably high with Jetstar in the mid 80ís.

itís been said before, any route will be flown if it makes a $1. A half full SY-ML must tick that.
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Old 24th Mar 2021, 02:15
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Alan also wants 70%.

He will not sit back and let the others take share.

He will throw capacity at it. Just as VA will do with additional 73ís.

Good for jobs all round!
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