Qantas...Post COVID
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Not sure where you got 12%. I count 109 pilots aged 60 or above as at 31 Mar 2021. 2027 pilots are currently on the seniority list. That's closer to 5%.
There are a couple of pinch points coming. First is the lack of A330 Captains when ramping that fleet up. They will need to come from somewhere and I suspect part of the reason why 737 training has recommenced. A 747 RIN won't even touch the sides of addressing the 56 A330 Captains that left with VR/ER.
The next pinch point is the A380. If it returns then I suspect 7-8 aeroplanes worth of flying (and probably 9 jets to allow a spare given they're fully written down). If it doesn't come back until November 2023 they are going to need 30-40 Captains trained on that fleet at roughly the same time as the A350 may be coming down range requiring crew to be trained. That results in a scenario where you are training people onto the A330 to release 30 Captains to the A330 as well as trying to train another 30 Captains on top to release A330 Captains for A350 training- at least in the initial stages. If they bring the A380 back prior to November 2023 (which I reckon will occur more towards the end of next year.... though hopefully closer to mid next year) then that certainly decreases that training pinch at the end of 2023.
The other question is A380 crew. If that aeroplane is coming back before the end of 2022 you wouldn't bother sending any crew across to the A330. If it's not coming back until November 2023 you may decide to bring a bunch of A380 pilots to the A330 for 18 months from Feb next year. This won't start to become more clear until later this year when we start to hear about future quarantine requirements post vaccine roll out.
There may also be a few more 787s somewhere in that mix too.
So whilst I don't see the need for recruiting this year, from the middle of 2022 onward and through to when the A350 is introduced could be quite busy for training on all fleets.
You bet! Certainly light at the end of the tunnel. I don't think it's an oncoming train but we won't be sure of that for a while yet.
There are a couple of pinch points coming. First is the lack of A330 Captains when ramping that fleet up. They will need to come from somewhere and I suspect part of the reason why 737 training has recommenced. A 747 RIN won't even touch the sides of addressing the 56 A330 Captains that left with VR/ER.
The next pinch point is the A380. If it returns then I suspect 7-8 aeroplanes worth of flying (and probably 9 jets to allow a spare given they're fully written down). If it doesn't come back until November 2023 they are going to need 30-40 Captains trained on that fleet at roughly the same time as the A350 may be coming down range requiring crew to be trained. That results in a scenario where you are training people onto the A330 to release 30 Captains to the A330 as well as trying to train another 30 Captains on top to release A330 Captains for A350 training- at least in the initial stages. If they bring the A380 back prior to November 2023 (which I reckon will occur more towards the end of next year.... though hopefully closer to mid next year) then that certainly decreases that training pinch at the end of 2023.
The other question is A380 crew. If that aeroplane is coming back before the end of 2022 you wouldn't bother sending any crew across to the A330. If it's not coming back until November 2023 you may decide to bring a bunch of A380 pilots to the A330 for 18 months from Feb next year. This won't start to become more clear until later this year when we start to hear about future quarantine requirements post vaccine roll out.
There may also be a few more 787s somewhere in that mix too.
So whilst I don't see the need for recruiting this year, from the middle of 2022 onward and through to when the A350 is introduced could be quite busy for training on all fleets.
You bet! Certainly light at the end of the tunnel. I don't think it's an oncoming train but we won't be sure of that for a while yet.
you might find that training start dates were given to those crew with deferred slots on the 737 as a certain LH captain wanted all slots thrown back into the mix for the senior crew to nab. By doing it now I’m told it avoids the need for agreement to defer again.happy to be corrected but given the person involved it would t be surprising at all.
Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.
Thread Starter
Well this is what Professor Murphy said two days ago
“I’m hopeful that pretty good international travel will happen next year, but it’s just too early to tell,”
Doesn't this mean that international travel "might" start early 2022 ?
Some of the posts above the normal Aussie ott superlative speak , the A380s are coming back , when the A350s arrive - they haven't even been ordered
, training , promotion , recruitment - very excitable talk. It's all going gangbusters - gee we do the blow hard part well in Australia
Right now domestic RPT uplift is about 20% & international is 0%. If domestic is at a steady 50% two years in that would be excellent & I think getting international
back to 50% two years after commencement would also be fantastic (but that is 2024)
Does anyone really think that Australia will open to USA , EU in 2022 ?
Do you really think guys WA /Qld premiers would allow that , not to mention the flighty fellow in Vic
I'd be happy if we just got to NZ & 4 or 5 countries in Asia
“I’m hopeful that pretty good international travel will happen next year, but it’s just too early to tell,”
Doesn't this mean that international travel "might" start early 2022 ?
Some of the posts above the normal Aussie ott superlative speak , the A380s are coming back , when the A350s arrive - they haven't even been ordered
, training , promotion , recruitment - very excitable talk. It's all going gangbusters - gee we do the blow hard part well in Australia
Right now domestic RPT uplift is about 20% & international is 0%. If domestic is at a steady 50% two years in that would be excellent & I think getting international
back to 50% two years after commencement would also be fantastic (but that is 2024)
Does anyone really think that Australia will open to USA , EU in 2022 ?
Do you really think guys WA /Qld premiers would allow that , not to mention the flighty fellow in Vic
I'd be happy if we just got to NZ & 4 or 5 countries in Asia
February 2020 - 1800 domestic flights / day
this bottomed out at 220
Fast forward to last week - The domestic market saw 1500 flights.
Fair to say it’s recovering nicely. International will be the same albeit at a slower rate.
Australia will open to UK and USA by November. Quarantine requirements are still to be seen. With both countries well over 80% vaccinated by then, why shouldn’t there be quarantine free travel??
Thread Starter
Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.
incredible...that’s for another day
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I would be looking at the data from Bitre , the pax carried , not sure how the number of aircraft taking off has anything to do with
pax numbers
Think Jan/Feb 2021 will be 20 to 25% , tops 30% of 2019
We have a long way to go with domestic, lots of Aussie CEOs are saying they pretty much have a no travel policy atm
"It's been confirmed October ramp up will be 40%" - you better get QF to instruct PM & Murphy how & when international travel is going to work
Must be some law I haven't heard of that declares QF execs as final arbiters re: opening international borders after a pandemic
Why oh why do we have this relentless blow hard / boasting stuff from QF execs ? (back to 80% domestic by July 2020 etc etc etc)
Surely the ignore reality approach creates unrealistic expectations from staff & then subsequent disappointment
pax numbers
Think Jan/Feb 2021 will be 20 to 25% , tops 30% of 2019
We have a long way to go with domestic, lots of Aussie CEOs are saying they pretty much have a no travel policy atm
"It's been confirmed October ramp up will be 40%" - you better get QF to instruct PM & Murphy how & when international travel is going to work
Must be some law I haven't heard of that declares QF execs as final arbiters re: opening international borders after a pandemic
Why oh why do we have this relentless blow hard / boasting stuff from QF execs ? (back to 80% domestic by July 2020 etc etc etc)
Surely the ignore reality approach creates unrealistic expectations from staff & then subsequent disappointment
Last edited by Telfer86; 24th Mar 2021 at 01:05.
Nunc est bibendum
Why is there any SH training at all? As it stands there are currently crew stood down in Syd and Mel, and quite few still below MGH. The threshold for training in the EA has not been met. What deal has AIPA done and why have they not consulted with the SH members prior to varying the EA? Have they agreed to train into the future and keep the SH crew at MGH? The new AIPA has been less than transparent.
Qantas decided on their own to start these courses and AIPA has done no ‘deal’ regarding them. Given that there is no variation to the SHEA (not that a variation can occur without members voting on it anyway..... which I’m sure every mainline pilot knows by now) I’m not sure what consultation you expect to have taken place? If you’re concerned about what the company has done email the COM and voice your concerns. Ranting on PPRUNE about a SHEA variation that doesn’t exist certainly isn’t going to achieve anything.
You literally have no clue.
February 2020 - 1800 domestic flights / day
this bottomed out at 220
Fast forward to last week - The domestic market saw 1500 flights.
Fair to say it’s recovering nicely. International will be the same albeit at a slower rate.
Australia will open to UK and USA by November. Quarantine requirements are still to be seen. With both countries well over 80% vaccinated by then, why shouldn’t there be quarantine free travel??
February 2020 - 1800 domestic flights / day
this bottomed out at 220
Fast forward to last week - The domestic market saw 1500 flights.
Fair to say it’s recovering nicely. International will be the same albeit at a slower rate.
Australia will open to UK and USA by November. Quarantine requirements are still to be seen. With both countries well over 80% vaccinated by then, why shouldn’t there be quarantine free travel??
As for quarantine free travel, politicians do what keeps them getting re elected, not what is best for the country.
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I’m not sure of how the training is happening. However if training early is the only way to stop those slots being thrown back for bidding, and it gets people who actually wanted to be on the 737 back to work, rather than allowing the super senior who will just go back to the 380 when it comes back anyway come across, I’m happy with that. It’s another handful of people working who would otherwise be stood down.
These same slots were deferred 12 months, which was approved by AIPA (in 2020), in accordance with the Award.
Can you show me where is says that divisors have to REMAIN above the trigger in order to continue training people? I can’t find it.
How do you feel left out by AIPA?
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Training is happening because of forward projection of flying, with a net increase of 737 hours (from pre- COVID) of over 10% after July- it's only a forecast, grain of salt, nobody knows, blah blah..
There is training now even thought he long term trigger (is 68hrs? or 73?) has not been met, because there is nothing written in EBA8 as that being a requirement, therefore it it the Company's interpretation...so those with an allocated slot or those who were already training when it stopped will be recommencing on Monday (good luck all!).
All 737 are stood up for BP 3415....Rosters are out in the next two days, Slack is saying about 62-64 as divisor.
.....As for the above statement about Load Factors..depends which sector. I flew some CNS & BNE sectors last week- they were ALL over 80%, so much so that the A330 is slated for CNS flying next BP. Have a look at FIDS. Melbourne and Perth are soft, people have low risk tolerance now, and don't want 14 days isolation at minimal notice.
I am going to say this again, there is many people on this RUMOUR network who hate QF, who have zero idea about our EA's or IR. If you don't know, don't come here looking for answers- ring your Base Manager, ring AIPA, ring a mate on the COM (or not), before you read the BS here.
There is training now even thought he long term trigger (is 68hrs? or 73?) has not been met, because there is nothing written in EBA8 as that being a requirement, therefore it it the Company's interpretation...so those with an allocated slot or those who were already training when it stopped will be recommencing on Monday (good luck all!).
All 737 are stood up for BP 3415....Rosters are out in the next two days, Slack is saying about 62-64 as divisor.
.....As for the above statement about Load Factors..depends which sector. I flew some CNS & BNE sectors last week- they were ALL over 80%, so much so that the A330 is slated for CNS flying next BP. Have a look at FIDS. Melbourne and Perth are soft, people have low risk tolerance now, and don't want 14 days isolation at minimal notice.
I am going to say this again, there is many people on this RUMOUR network who hate QF, who have zero idea about our EA's or IR. If you don't know, don't come here looking for answers- ring your Base Manager, ring AIPA, ring a mate on the COM (or not), before you read the BS here.
because there is nothing written in EBA8 as that being a requirement
here is what it says:
9 - INCREASE IN SHORT HAUL PILOT ESTABLISHMENT
In deciding whether an increased establishment of pilots on short haul aircraft is necessary, the determinant factor will be a divisor of not less than 73 pay hours per month taken on average over a projected period of one year, with due allowance for leave.
Last edited by Chad Gates; 24th Mar 2021 at 01:22.
Telfer just wants to spout his incessant negativity. His predictions of mass sackings amongst crew are looking more and more foolish by the day, so now he is making up stats about the flying that is happening.
As this discussion largely revolves around the pilots getting back to work (or even being recruited), then pax stats are NOT the important issue. The number of flights and stood up crew is the determining factor and they are looking great for 737 crew and for those soon to start 737 training.
Qantas used to make half a billion dollars profit flying domestically with ~80% load factor. Is it hard to believe they would cover their costs flying at 50%? This gets people back to work, protects/grows market share and offsets aircraft fixed costs.
Things are looking up at long last, some just can’t bare to admit it.
As this discussion largely revolves around the pilots getting back to work (or even being recruited), then pax stats are NOT the important issue. The number of flights and stood up crew is the determining factor and they are looking great for 737 crew and for those soon to start 737 training.
Qantas used to make half a billion dollars profit flying domestically with ~80% load factor. Is it hard to believe they would cover their costs flying at 50%? This gets people back to work, protects/grows market share and offsets aircraft fixed costs.
Things are looking up at long last, some just can’t bare to admit it.
Thread Starter
it’s been said before, any route will be flown if it makes a $1. A half full SY-ML must tick that.
