Not sure where you got 12%. I count 109 pilots aged 60 or above as at 31 Mar 2021. 2027 pilots are currently on the seniority list. That's closer to 5%.
There are a couple of pinch points coming. First is the lack of A330 Captains when ramping that fleet up. They will need to come from somewhere and I suspect part of the reason why 737 training has recommenced. A 747 RIN won't even touch the sides of addressing the 56 A330 Captains that left with VR/ER.
The next pinch point is the A380. If it returns then I suspect 7-8 aeroplanes worth of flying (and probably 9 jets to allow a spare given they're fully written down). If it doesn't come back until November 2023 they are going to need 30-40 Captains trained on that fleet at roughly the same time as the A350 may be coming down range requiring crew to be trained. That results in a scenario where you are training people onto the A330 to release 30 Captains to the A330 as well as trying to train another 30 Captains on top to release A330 Captains for A350 training- at least in the initial stages. If they bring the A380 back prior to November 2023 (which I reckon will occur more towards the end of next year.... though hopefully closer to mid next year) then that certainly decreases that training pinch at the end of 2023.
The other question is A380 crew. If that aeroplane is coming back before the end of 2022 you wouldn't bother sending any crew across to the A330. If it's not coming back until November 2023 you may decide to bring a bunch of A380 pilots to the A330 for 18 months from Feb next year. This won't start to become more clear until later this year when we start to hear about future quarantine requirements post vaccine roll out.
There may also be a few more 787s somewhere in that mix too.
So whilst I don't see the need for recruiting this year, from the middle of 2022 onward and through to when the A350 is introduced could be quite busy for training on all fleets.
You bet! Certainly light at the end of the tunnel. I don't think it's an oncoming train but we won't be sure of that for a while yet.
you might find that training start dates were given to those crew with deferred slots on the 737 as a certain LH captain wanted all slots thrown back into the mix for the senior crew to nab. By doing it now I’m told it avoids the need for agreement to defer again.happy to be corrected but given the person involved it would t be surprising at all.