Has flying changed forever?
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Zoom will impact...not replace
My contention isn’t that post pandemic business travel will evaporate completely. I believe, based on conversations with friends outside aviation who work in the public and private sectors, is that in some organisations, one in every 2 or 3 business trips could be replaced by video conferencing. Perhaps a 10-20-30% reduction overall. Not a doomsday prediction, but not a snap back to pre pandemic levels of business travel either.
Caught up with a few old friends during the week. They work as a senior partner in a major law firm, a senior manager in a multi-national building conglomerate and head of IT services in a very large organisation. The relevant point here is that they all used to travel extensively for business purposes AND they are all responsible for approving travel arrangements for their subordinates.
All three of them were absolute and unequivocal in their statements that the previous volume of business travel undertaken by themselves and their subordinate staff (100s for 2 of them) would not be replicated once travel becomes unrestricted again.
They readily agreed that not all business could be effectively conducted via teleconferencing. However, they assured me that their (and their staff) contribution and service to the Frequent Flyer Army (booted and suited, lounge-dwelling, high-yield, corporate types) would be significantly reduced.
Make of that what you will, but I would put money on it being a LONG time until that part of the aviation market returns to pre-COVID levels. I have no business experience with it but these guys all stated that the technology really has come a long way and certain face-to-face business tasks are replaced via Zoom (or the like) with no apparent disadvantage.
On the flip side of the travel coin, I have had many friends and family say that they are planning 2 or 3 trips to holiday or catch-up with family and friends in the space of time (e.g. 12 months) that they would usually be only planning 1 trip. They did add a caveat to those intentions by stating that while they were uber-keen to take care of their cabin fever, the budget was going to be strictly controlled.
PG
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Fewer and fewer will travel for business, leisure travel will still continue albiet not at the levels pre the China Virus. This one world event has changed the face of the planet as we used to know it forever!
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Well I would have to disagree with the leisure travel reducing in size, all the flights I have operated this month I have seen 90% and above load factors (yes I work it out every sector I have done). Soon as people get the go ahead from gov and border restrictions ease especially in Victoria there will be demand Aussies love to travel that’s always been a fact.
I have read various articles regarding video conferencing business seem to be displeased with it due to poor quality, drop outs in internet service and other tech issues. They also prefer the face to face meetings but wether they travel business class or not well maybe not in the short term but who knows.
I have read various articles regarding video conferencing business seem to be displeased with it due to poor quality, drop outs in internet service and other tech issues. They also prefer the face to face meetings but wether they travel business class or not well maybe not in the short term but who knows.
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Well I would have to disagree with the leisure travel reducing in size, all the flights I have operated this month I have seen 90% and above load factors (yes I work it out every sector I have done). Soon as people get the go ahead from gov and border restrictions ease especially in Victoria there will be demand Aussies love to travel that’s always been a fact.
I have read various articles regarding video conferencing business seem to be displeased with it due to poor quality, drop outs in internet service and other tech issues. They also prefer the face to face meetings but wether they travel business class or not well maybe not in the short term but who knows.
I have read various articles regarding video conferencing business seem to be displeased with it due to poor quality, drop outs in internet service and other tech issues. They also prefer the face to face meetings but wether they travel business class or not well maybe not in the short term but who knows.
My job requires me to physically inspect stuff but I would think my domestic travel will be less than half what it used to be once things are 'normal'.
2 large NSW departments. Both expecting much lower business travel in future. Both planning “Zoom rooms” - big screen on wall, sound proofed, good speakers and microphones, fairly comfortable.
This looks like a long term reset - not a short term adaptation.
This looks like a long term reset - not a short term adaptation.
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Internal memo I saw from a mate at HSBC shows a new global mandate of a 70% reduction in travel post virus. Zoom may not be the best way of managing a global business but the dollar savings in shiny lights will be enough to keep it enforced for at least the next few years.....
Those of us looking down the barrel of 80, and who have already cruised and flown near everywhere, are now forced to reconsider our future. Firstly, after 80, travel insurance becomes punishing, and that alone is a massive deterrant. And yes, we have incurred some medical issues along lifes road, and these are now returning to bite us in higher premiums and numerous exclusions. As well, with the cruise ship industry having been clearly shown up as being more concerned with income than passenger safety - we won't be going back there. (17 cruises x 6 companies in 22 years). We recognise that long distance airline travel is becoming more comfortable, and is safe enough - but negotiating huge airports has become quite a difficult event for us. Too much walking gate-to-gate, a rugby scrum at every security checkpoint, and terrible food facilities. Business lounges have fallen to new lows too. What we once thought nothing of enduring - at our age, we just don't want to do it anymore.
Where to now? Well, fly the RV to more distant Aussie locations, drive to the many Aussie locations we've never considered, and do a bit more intra-state travel for weekends. Doing our bit to keep some of the $68b that Aussies used to spend on overseas travel - here in Aussie.
happy days,
Where to now? Well, fly the RV to more distant Aussie locations, drive to the many Aussie locations we've never considered, and do a bit more intra-state travel for weekends. Doing our bit to keep some of the $68b that Aussies used to spend on overseas travel - here in Aussie.
happy days,
Be interesting to see how that image compares with one taken at the same time a year ago. Flightradar has some figures here Air traffic at China's busiest airports... which suggests it's currently very roughly 25% down now from where it was prior to the disease outbreaks, but I also wonder about the influence of state control over their airlines, particularly those that the government is a majority shareholder of. It makes me question how much flying is being done there because it's a way to demonstrate to the world, so everyone can look on flightradar and the airport activity statements, and see how well the airline industry and China overall is "recovering" under the Chinese government rule.
short flights long nights
How many people are in those aircraft?
short flights long nights
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Originally Posted by themeatfleet
Internal memo I saw from a mate at HSBC shows a new global mandate of a 70% reduction in travel post virus.
I look forward to digging out this thread in five years from now and we'll see how things have recovered!
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Doubt it.... Or is your 'mate' only talking about HSBC staff? And I doubt that figure too even if it's just HSBC. For business you cannot compare a Zoom chat with face to face talking. What is it? 85% of conversation is the body language and not the actual words? Besides, when your ISP goes down regularly what then? You just have to look at Virgin Broadband in the UK failing several times recently leaving Zoomers high and dry!
I look forward to digging out this thread in five years from now and we'll see how things have recovered!
I look forward to digging out this thread in five years from now and we'll see how things have recovered!
Be interesting to see how that image compares with one taken at the same time a year ago. Flightradar has some figures here Air traffic at China's busiest airports... which suggests it's currently very roughly 25% down now from where it was prior to the disease outbreaks, but I also wonder about the influence of state control over their airlines, particularly those that the government is a majority shareholder of. It makes me question how much flying is being done there because it's a way to demonstrate to the world, so everyone can look on flightradar and the airport activity statements, and see how well the airline industry and China overall is "recovering" under the Chinese government rule.
In late July 70% of scheduled flights flown compared to 2019 numbers. Not the same but not apocalyptically less.
Load factor average was 73%. Only a little increase needed to resume the average pre Covid load factor which I believe is around 85% for all airlines.
So the industry there is on the way back, hopefully it will follow here as well.
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Original article here
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said that the sector will not recover fully until 2024 due to “surprisingly weak” demand – a year later than earlier predictions.
Figures released by the IATA on Tuesday show that global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) were down around 87 per cent in June versus the same month in 2019 – a much worse outcome than initially expected. Revised estimates from the body put RPK recovery at 2024, while total passenger numbers are expected to return to a 2019 baseline by 2023.
The revised forecast comes on the back of a lack of consumer confidence, a decline in business travel, and “second wave” concerns in parts of the US and continental Europe.
Figures released by the IATA on Tuesday show that global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) were down around 87 per cent in June versus the same month in 2019 – a much worse outcome than initially expected. Revised estimates from the body put RPK recovery at 2024, while total passenger numbers are expected to return to a 2019 baseline by 2023.
The revised forecast comes on the back of a lack of consumer confidence, a decline in business travel, and “second wave” concerns in parts of the US and continental Europe.
