Originally Posted by
ECAMACTIONSCOMPLETE
My contention isn’t that post pandemic business travel will evaporate completely. I believe, based on conversations with friends outside aviation who work in the public and private sectors, is that in some organisations, one in every 2 or 3 business trips could be replaced by video conferencing. Perhaps a 10-20-30% reduction overall. Not a doomsday prediction, but not a snap back to pre pandemic levels of business travel either.
This.
Caught up with a few old friends during the week. They work as a senior partner in a major law firm, a senior manager in a multi-national building conglomerate and head of IT services in a very large organisation. The relevant point here is that they all used to travel extensively for business purposes AND they are all responsible for approving travel arrangements for their subordinates.
All three of them were absolute and unequivocal in their statements that the previous volume of business travel undertaken by themselves and their subordinate staff (100s for 2 of them) would not be replicated once travel becomes unrestricted again.
They readily agreed that not all business could be effectively conducted via teleconferencing. However, they assured me that their (and their staff) contribution and service to the Frequent Flyer Army (booted and suited, lounge-dwelling, high-yield, corporate types) would be significantly reduced.
Make of that what you will, but I would put money on it being a LONG time until that part of the aviation market returns to pre-COVID levels. I have no business experience with it but these guys all stated that the technology really has come a long way and certain face-to-face business tasks are replaced via Zoom (or the like) with no apparent disadvantage.
On the flip side of the travel coin, I have had many friends and family say that they are planning 2 or 3 trips to holiday or catch-up with family and friends in the space of time (e.g. 12 months) that they would usually be only planning 1 trip. They did add a caveat to those intentions by stating that while they were uber-keen to take care of their cabin fever, the budget was going to be strictly controlled.
PG