Has flying changed forever?
 

Worthy of a view, this News article gives a good overview at the moment . 8mins


And also this
Window seats not the best it would seem

Changed for a very long time.
Some sectors likely changed for good. Numerous domestic flights each day filled with workers flying interstate for few hours of meetings will appear as quaint as ... kids blowing out candles on a birthday cake.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....62a45098cd.png



Latest CDC death figures show USA deaths are falling faster than they are being reported.

There is a difference between death reported and death occurred.
Most deaths reported in the past week (i.e. the week between July 4 and July 11) were added to previous weeks back in April and May.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....92e95977ae.png
Blue = deaths by week occurred as of WE July 4
Red = deaths by week occurred as of WE July 11.

So CDC recored 6,698 additional deaths in that week. But only 5% (338) of these occurred in the last week.
Of course, next week more deaths will be added to the WE 7/11.
As of 7/4, there were 177 deaths recorded in that 7/4 week. As of 7/11, there are a total of 643 deaths in the WE 7/4 (a further 466)

This CDC data is based on death certificate data It is the most reliable data (although even that has problems - England particularly it seems). However it can take many weeks for cases to filter through the system and get recorded and then get added to the appropriate week.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....494b2ff529.png

Nothings changed, Lift still = Cl x 0.5 (p x p)s

So the graph you posted says 20-25% of Aussies were planning (not just wanting) to take a domestic flight within 3 months of restrictions lifting. Extrapolated that’s up to 6 million people, and it’s estimated that 10 million Australians take at least one domestic flight per year. So 60% are willing to fly again domestically straight away

Once travel is unrestricted give it a little while for memory of the virus to fade away and the other 40% will start to come back. Australians are too used to having cheap and accessible air travel as a part of their lives now. Once fears of the virus subside then the demand will return.

As far as the OP and sneezing on an aircraft, literally any space where people crowd together will be at risk.
Will we shun:
Sports stadiums
Weddings
Restaurants
Pubs
Nightclubs
Trains
Buses
Cinemas
Schools
For the rest of our existence?

I hope there’s still a V in there !

The V is AWOL at the moment...can I blame spell check?

I doubt it.... The pandemic will eventually be declared over and we'll get on with things!

All the kids I know still do:D They're not all junkies by the age of ten you know!

Yeah.

But that was 3 months after a minimal 1st wave that was quickly contained as it mostly involved returned travellers. I suspect this outbreak will be harder to get under control and will do more damage.

Then add the loss of disposable income when jobs don’t come back, when job keeper gets pulled, and when mortgage holidays come to an end.

This is not a short term blip in a graph. This is deeply entrenched structural change.

Unfortunately the change is permanent. We don’t know where it will end up, but we ain’t going back to 4000 pax cruise ships rocking into Venice or long weekends in Bali. or A380 dumping pax in Dubai for onwards connections.

To pine for What it is tempting to call “the good old days” is a waste of time We need to engage with what people want and try and deliver.

As a potential passenger, My gut feel is I can’t afford another business class ticket to be dumped at a hub in Frankfurt, LHR, etc., then dick around getting domestic flights. What might work is direct flights to destinations close to where I want to go - much more targeted and specific. However I’m dreaming. I probably won’t see Venice, Amalfi, Split, Sardinia ever again.

Hey Mate,
We are definitely in the middle of the storm and it's hard to make predictions when we are in it, although we have some clues. You'll see Venice again, just hung in there!
It might take a while, air travel growing trend might have been interrupted but it will recover again. 9/11 is a good example of this.
I wish all the best to all the aviation community!

Rubbish. People have short memories once the media frenzy moves onto something else. It may take a while, but it ain't permanent!

Hmmm, this isn't just about folk getting on planes.

Working from home productively and virtual meetings are game changers, virtual meetings will reduce the need to travel, not eliminate it entirely but IMO will impact business travel which is the cash cow for a lot of airlines.
Working from home reduces the need for office space, this will be reflected in reduced values in commercial property, investors will take their money elsewhere and it's unlikely to be in leisure or travel related industries,
that's not even factoring in all the folk who haven't got a job as a result of Covid19.

Also, this is by no means over; globally the number of people with Covid19 is increasing. Even if flights were available, who would go to Mexico at present?

In addition Momoe, “working from home” frees people from the need to be geographically close to a city office, plus people are going nuts cooped up in city apartments.

‘’This is already translating into people moving out of cities into rural areas. This is a decumented trend. That could mean an increase in air taxi/ very short haul operations between country and city destinations. For example, I’m 3 hours minimum by road from the city but less than 40 minutes by air.

Forget high speed rail as a solution because we don’t have the population density to afford it. A twice daily air service in a Caravan or suchlike would perhaps be viable - if it wasn’t for Australia’s uniquely unfriendly aviation regulation environment.

I call complete and utter bull****. This will pass like every other crisis. Not only will things get back to 'normal' they'll far exceed the activity of pre-covid.

I agree.

When the media moves on so will the people.

A vaccine like the one in development in Oxford will change the ball game. If it or any of the vaccines are successful and rapid distribution happens well........???
A crystal ball would be nice.

Agree.
The Deloitte survey was about leisure travel
But business travel will be harder hit than leisure
a) businesses will be looking to cut costs. A Zoom meeting looks attractive compared to losing someone for a day and the travel expenses. It won't go to zero, but it will decrease. A lot.
b) you can't use Zoom for a holiday
c) the ongoing risk of air-travel may be worth a 2 week holiday somewhere nice. But less so for a 2 hour meeting in another city.

Leisure will pick up first. But people will be price conscious, and many will downgrade (Fiji instead of Europe, Qld instead of Fiji)

The highest yield seats on a plane are J and full Y, which are often business travellers.
Deeply discounted Y are very low yield, but are the sorts of tickets people will be buying.

There will be exceptions to all the above. Some business travel will continue. And some people will still holiday in Europe and USA in 20201.
But businesses have to look at what most people are doing.

But they can only buy them if the carriers are offering them

That's a pretty brave prediction, Slats11! :E

He's correct CB - bang on the money. But 20201 is a VERY long time to wait:)