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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

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REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

Old 4th Sep 2023, 09:35
  #2461 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bull_Shark
Exactly this, well said!

Rex had no hesitation in sinking the boot into Virgin and it’s staff when they were on the ropes hoping to then scoop up a whole lot of unemployed and desperate staff rewriting a new low standard for jet pilots in this country letting a very few megalomaniac management and check pilots live out their dreams of finally being bigger and better than Virgin, Qantas or Jetstar.

Rex aren’t the saviours of aviation in Australia and god help us (passengers and staff alike) should they realise their plans of becoming a major player.
You mean like Virgin did when Ansett went into administration? That was most certainly when the downward spiral in Airline Ts&Cs started.

Last edited by Wizofoz; 4th Sep 2023 at 09:50.
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Old 4th Sep 2023, 10:35
  #2462 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Colonel_Klink
I will direct you to Project Mother, where Sharp was salivating at the idea of taking advantage of a workforce going through administration. So forgive me for not jumping for joy at everything Rex, an organisation that was gleefully trying to pay jet pilots 10% lower than the cheapest NB pilots in the country.
All airline pilots both here and overseas who are contemplating joining Rex should never forget this
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Old 4th Sep 2023, 10:58
  #2463 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Love Doctor
All airline pilots both here and overseas who are contemplating joining Rex should never forget this
VB paid 60% less than the existing airlines when it started.

Last edited by Wizofoz; 4th Sep 2023 at 12:37.
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Old 4th Sep 2023, 22:56
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Originally Posted by MickG0105
Well, not that this should be treated as financial advice, but 5.30pm-ish on Friday and here's the view from Rexville
What about this morning Mick? Time to update the market on the declining performance?

These slots would be better off given to Bonza.
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Old 5th Sep 2023, 00:59
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
What about this morning Mick? Time to update the market on the declining performance?

These slots would be better off given to Bonza.
Well, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are my preferred days to fly for good reason; generally the lightest loads of the week.

That said, Rex's first flights of the day are much lighter than the competition. ZL9 SYD-MEL left with around 55 pax and ZL18 coming the other way was carrying 70 pax. For comparison, VA (which operated three flights in the 20 minutes or so either side of the Rex flights) averaged 103 and 113 pax respectively.

And this time last year, the same Rex flights for the first Tuesday in September were carrying 102 and 153 pax respectively.

Stepping back a bit, yesterday was Rex's second worst day since late July; about 1,080 pax SYD-MEL-SYD spread over 14 flights, about 2,690 on 28 flights on the triangle, and just under 4,100 pax on 42 flights for the domestic jet network.

That capped off their worst week in the past six weeks; 29,975 network pax over 278 flights.

People can dress it up anyway they like but there appears to be something definitely wrong with Rex's domestic jet operations patronage. At best, they don't appear to have grown their customer base over the past twelve months, and they are now just atomising that base over an increasing number of flights.

Who knows though, maybe last week was an aberration and things are on the improve. Doubtless Rex will let us know as soon as there's even a glimmer of things turning around.
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Old 5th Sep 2023, 01:24
  #2466 (permalink)  
 
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VA loads don't seem that great either considering they have a much larger market share and footprint. Given the state of the economy today I'm surprised it wasn't fewer than 55/70 pax you counted.
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Old 5th Sep 2023, 01:31
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I wouldn't be surprised if the two large operators QF and VA haven't over saturated all the markets in reaction to the Covid angst travel spike. It might be a lean 12 months ahead for everyone, which may be why AJ has pulled the pin earlier as public pressure mounts on all aspects of QF operations over the last few years. This might play well for Bonza and Rex as they (QF group and VA) pull back flights and leave some holes in the non-peak times. I heard anecdotal evidence that Perth loads for QF and VA are less than half, and have seen Syd/Mel loads with most passengers with rows to themselves on these operators. Haven't traveled with Rex for ages so can't comment on them. This is probably the real reason QF has high cancellation rates on this sector, yield management, rather than other operational issues, have to keep those slots filled with scheduled flights so no-one can argue their use, then cancel the flight and merge it when it's not profitable. Hopefully the government looks at 'used' slots rather than 'scheduled' slots when they redistribute.
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Old 5th Sep 2023, 02:39
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I can't attest to QF or JQ numbers to Perth, but across all of yesterday and so far today, VA have moved nearly 2,950 pax to Perth from the east coast on 21 flights (plus one cancellation). Including the cancelled flight, that's 134 pax per flight. There was one very light load in that sample; only 35 odd pax on VA697 out of Melbourne last night.

All the caveats around small samples apply, YMMV.
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Old 5th Sep 2023, 04:31
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My home loan repayments have risen from $2423 to $3696 per month that's around $15,000 extra per year after tax and I'm not alone
Rents on the sunny coast have risen about 50% over the last year and a bit
Electricity, gas, rates, water, food, fuel and just about everything is surging in price
Equating to less disposable coin for Joe Public to spend on holidays
Businesses are also pulling the purse strings on expenses
If we had no immigration, we would be in a serious recession

So no surprises that loads are suffering
There will either be a run of sales or frequencies will need to be cut
This may be a bit of a dilemma for QF at SYD as they will not want to give up their slots if this downturn is sustained
Could we see Q400s replacing 737s SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE to maintain full loads on smaller birds to keep slots
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Old 5th Sep 2023, 08:29
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
Project Mother was built on opinion, not reality. It was purely what Rex wanted to hear, and what Rex wanted to eventuate, completely disregarding the reality of the situation.

The statement in regards to Virgin exiting the process with high costs and low pax numbers is bizarre and indicates they have a very bare understanding on how the administration process works.

Rex wanted to rip accumulated entitlements from flight crew quite proudly, he said it with a smile at many press conferences, and itís mentioned in many press releases, and mentioned in the above presentation. Disgraceful organisation that has no place in our industry.
Wanted to hear, wanted to eventuate, completely disregarding reality. Sounds suspiciously like a certain personality trait that we all know and love?
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 03:47
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Originally Posted by Deano969
My home loan repayments have risen from $2423 to $3696 per month that's around $15,000 extra per year after tax and I'm not alone
Rents on the sunny coast have risen about 50% over the last year and a bit
Electricity, gas, rates, water, food, fuel and just about everything is surging in price
Equating to less disposable coin for Joe Public to spend on holidays
If we had no immigration, we would be in a serious recession

So no surprises that loads are suffering

Could we see Q400s replacing 737s SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE to maintain full loads on smaller birds to keep slots
With that said, if we had no immigration, rents would have increased 0% rather than the 50% you mentioned above, so renters wouldn't be as strapped for cash.
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 08:31
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Originally Posted by mikewil
With that said, if we had no immigration, rents would have increased 0% rather than the 50% you mentioned above, so renters wouldn't be as strapped for cash.
Rents started going up during the pandemic with no immigration go figure?
Yet they were still building houses and apartments ...
Sunny coast saw greater that average as southerners relocated up here during and after the pandemic

All that said, you cant argue a lot of people are finding things very tough at the moment and that will certainly put a damper on anything leisure related and would explain the lower load factors
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 08:40
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Immigration and rent rises are unrelated, it’s more due to a pent up desire to travel causing landlords to look at short term accomodation (AirBNB) as a cash cow vis long term. Why get $600 a week when you can get that for a few nights a week and not have the long term wear and tear, especially given immigration was not happening during COVID when the rental crisis started. Land banking is not helping, I haven’t seen latest figures but places lick Docklands in Melbourne have a 10% occupancy on any given night.

That same pent up desire to travel is why airlines should be soaring, and it’s still happening according to the pundits that know.
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 08:42
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It's 5pm ... do you know where your customers are?


ZL152 MEL-SYD 17:15 dep (l), ZL143 SYD-MEL 17:20 dep (r)
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 09:54
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Immigration and rent rises are unrelated,
Are you kidding?

There are 7,700 people arriving in Australia each week! Given around 3,300 deaths a week in Australia that is a very large amount of people looking for somewhere to live.
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 10:15
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Land and house 'investment' is the major factor causing Australian housing to inflate in price. There is more than enough land for 50 times the population, however it is sold by land holders at a drip feed to ensure they get more for their land each time. Then the developers take their part, the cost of improvement and such adds to the basic land price and then the cost of capital improvement. Before the home owner/renter steps foot in their property there has been a massive level of profit already made. Then come the capital gains speculators, who only buy the property as an asset that basically solidifies cash into something that appreciates over time, without having to do anything, sometimes these investors will own several properties and not even rent them out, just using them as a safe haven for their cash. These investors will not part with the house at a loss, and don't care for the dips and waves of the market. Then comes the home owners with more dollars than sense who will pay whatever the seller wants, sometimes competing for the same property. And many other levels of investors, before an immigrant and their family buy an entry level property in poorer crammed in suburbs. Yes, immigration adds a small amount to the price pressure at the lower end, but the main driver of Australian properties and rental prices is people investing to make money from the property market, AND, no lack of people willing to pay the prices advertised. At some point rentals will have to adjust to follow the price of housing.

The only way to stop the appreciation of the housing market is to make it less attractive to own a house, get rid of negative gearing, beef up capital gains tax, increase interest rates on investment loans, increase rates and land tax, introduce death taxes and so on.... Things like inheritance tax make it very hard for generational land holdings, unless the land/property is financially cash positive, as the tax on large land estates basically wipes out any profit you can make, so no more land banking and drip feeding land to developers and so on... With those sort of taxes the capital gains investors will flee and the prices will collapse, but there will not be many 'empty' houses as you will need the rent to make any empty property even remotely viable.
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 10:24
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It's 5pm ... do you know where your customers are?
Mick the trend appears to be, they do well in off peak non business times, but do terrible in peak business periods.

If you have a look, flights are actually much heavier at lunchtime and late late night. Busy on a Friday to Sunday, however that is only half of it. Then, Virgin is the reverse, heavier in peak and lighter in off peak, the margin is in peak though!

They really appear to only carry the scraps of any business traffic, probably as much as Tiger Air did back in the day. They really need to get that fixed before fuel goes on another road trip, which appears that trip has just started, will bleed them dry flying around like that for half the day.
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 10:48
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I tried to book on the later flight, which is the commuter one, and it was booked out... 5:15PM day trippers are still packing up from the days work. If you are catching the 5:15pm you probably finished work at 3PM.
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 10:51
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
Mick the trend appears to be, they do well in off peak non business times, but do terrible in peak business periods.

If you have a look, flights are actually much heavier at lunchtime and late late night. Busy on a Friday to Sunday, however that is only half of it. Then, Virgin is the reverse, heavier in peak and lighter in off peak, the margin is in peak though!

They really appear to only carry the scraps of any business traffic, probably as much as Tiger Air did back in the day. They really need to get that fixed before fuel goes on another road trip, which appears that trip has just started, will bleed them dry flying around like that for half the day.
Would be interesting to know how many of those J class seats are paid for, or are just free upgrades?
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Old 6th Sep 2023, 11:02
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
Mick the trend appears to be, they do well in off peak non business times, but do terrible in peak business periods.

If you have a look, flights are actually much heavier at lunchtime and late late night. Busy on a Friday to Sunday, however that is only half of it. Then, Virgin is the reverse, heavier in peak and lighter in off peak, the margin is in peak though!

They really appear to only carry the scraps of any business traffic, probably as much as Tiger Air did back in the day. They really need to get that fixed before fuel goes on another road trip, which appears that trip has just started, will bleed them dry flying around like that for half the day.
They're certainly shaping up as God's airline - Sundays are their best day for loads. Fridays have tended to be their best day for pax numbers but spread over more flights than Sundays. And yep, on the triangle and generally, it's the middle of the day when they see reasonable loads.

Melbourne - Brisbane is their most solid city pair on the triangle for loads; they limit themselves to 2 return services a day there. Melbourne - Gold Coast is generally solid (one return a day) as is Sydney - Adelaide (also one return a day).

When they were starting to hit their straps this time last year, there was good evidence of solid corporate bookings; good early am and 5pm - 7pm loads on the triangle, Monday to Friday. That now appears to be missing, and that is going to sting as the economy cools.

Their next play is going to be Brisbane - Adelaide. It will be interesting to see how that goes; it's an already pretty well serviced route. Shades of their play for Melbourne - Hobart there perhaps; that was a reasonably well serviced route when they chipped in mid-August.
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