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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 03:22
  #3881 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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The way experts count the actual toll of a pandemic is excess mortality.

Every verified data source puts it much higher than in previous years:

An additional 104,520 people have died since March 2020 across the UK. Since the onset of the pandemic there have been six deaths for every five people who would be expected to die in an average year.

Excess deaths are fatalities above the five-year average and are seen as the gold standard in interpreting how many people have died as a result of the pandemic.

UK's excess death toll since start of Covid pandemic passes 100,000

Comparing that to the recorded 96,000 COVID deaths in the UK to around that time and the figures are similar enough to match.

Wondering whether or not some (and it would be a very small percentage) of recorded Covid deaths in the UK were classified incorrectly does not invalidate the health response to the pandemic.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 04:08
  #3882 (permalink)  
 
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The UK records every death within 28 days of a positive COVID test as a COVID death, regardless of whether they died on a ventilator or under a train.


People die, it is the one undisputed fact of life. You can move statistics around, call it excess deaths or anything you like, but none of us are staying around forever, and I am not sure when we, as a society, became so arrogant that we felt natures laws no longer apply to us. The medical profession need to rebalance their view of risk, or hand control back to politicians, but either way people will still die every year.

I know someone who died in a Melbourne care home from COVID, so I dispute neither its existence or virulence; but the individual was late 80's, morbidly obese, with alzheimers and emphysemia. Was the cause of death COVID? or was COVID a contributory factor in the same way that pneumonia is classified?

There is now a Brazilian strain - this sh1t is going to roll on for years. Its time we learned to live with it before the cancelled surgeries, undiagnosed cancers and mental health issues eclipse a virus with a 1.9% mortality rate.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 04:20
  #3883 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat View Post
The medical profession need to rebalance their view of risk, or hand control back to politicians, but either way people will still die every year.
If the medical profession were secretly controlling politicians then we’d have bans on things like Tobacco, Alcohol advertising, Trans Fats, junior contact sports etc.

In reality we had a dangerous virus spread uncontrolled outside of Australia for a year before a vaccine was available. It is the vaccine that will ensure we can manage this risk to an acceptable level. That way the pandemic subsides and we manage it like a respiratory illness. Future variants are managed with different targeted seasonal vaccines, like influenza.

So yes this is how we are “learning to live with this”

Last edited by dr dre; 2nd Mar 2021 at 04:30.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 05:53
  #3884 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Check my maths...

Assuming 20,000,000 people to vaccinate, over eight months, March to October...

That requires 2,500,000 people per month to be vaccinated.

Assuming thirty days in a month, that requires 83,333 people PER DAY to be vaccinated.

OR

March to October is 245 days. 20,000,000 people into 245 days requires 81,632 PER DAY vaccinated.

Perhaps 20,000,000 is too ambitious?
Although the numbers sound high, in the pre-Christmas rush as a country I think COVID testing eclipsed 100K per day. The physical testing and vaccination process takes about the same amount of time.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 06:13
  #3885 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2012
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Saw in the papers today McClown wants to keep the borders closed beyond COVID. He might win this election but the place will be decimated if he gets his way on this one
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 06:45
  #3886 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A320 Flyer View Post
Saw in the papers today McClown wants to keep the borders closed beyond COVID. He might win this election but the place will be decimated if he gets his way on this one
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/...01-p576r5.html

Its only regarding inspections of freight at the border, which during covid increased and uncovered more drugs than normal.....No need to blow it out of context.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 06:59
  #3887 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
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If the medical profession were secretly controlling politicians then we’d have bans on things like Tobacco, Alcohol advertising, Trans Fats, junior contact sports etc.
Ya reckon? And put themselves out of work? What would they do instead, go out and get their pilot's licence?
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 07:24
  #3888 (permalink)  
 
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Its only regarding inspections of freight at the border, which during covid increased and uncovered more drugs than normal.....No need to blow it out of context.
Originally he said they wanted to track everybody inbound and keep the hard border. He was looking into keeping the G2G App as passport control. Everyone would have to apply to enter WA.

By the afternoon he had changed his mind. Or had it changed for him.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 07:29
  #3889 (permalink)  
 
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The "hard border" was only deemed legal for virus control, not at the whim of a premier who likes the idea.
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 07:40
  #3890 (permalink)  
 
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 11:20
  #3891 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
The "hard border" was only deemed legal for virus control, not at the whim of a premier who likes the idea.
Yes, I think S117 should put an end to that one.

In the meantime, Comrade Chairman is looking to extend his Emergency powers, and the Watermelons are right behind him!

https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...02-p576zs.html
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Old 2nd Mar 2021, 21:44
  #3892 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
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An update to my figures above.

I calculated around 82,000 vaccinations were required each day to be on target for October. See by maths above.

I just saw on the ABC that their graph showed 198,000 required per day. (It must be true as it was on tv)

I guess they are allowing for TWO shots per person, I only allowed for ONE.
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 05:22
  #3893 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman View Post
Yes, I think S117 should put an end to that one.

In the meantime, Comrade Chairman is looking to extend his Emergency powers, and the Watermelons are right behind him!

https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...02-p576zs.html
This is insanity looking from afar. In the short term, right; but 9 months??
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 07:09
  #3894 (permalink)  
 
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I imagine that chief health officers are counselling that Covid might be the gift that keeps on giving to neo-potentates everywhere. Already you can read worrisome advice that the pace of mutations might result in a mutant strain able to escape* the vaccines.

*(immunologist term. Means what you think it does)

The Cassandra-like cautions suggest that we may still end up back at square one dealing with this virus. So nine months worth of scope is either crazy cautious or fetchingly innocent. Someone wake me when its over.
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 07:45
  #3895 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jrfsp View Post
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/...01-p576r5.html

Its only regarding inspections of freight at the border, which during covid increased and uncovered more drugs than normal.....No need to blow it out of context.
important for Mcclown to support the local meth dealers. Nothing like boosting your homemade supply. Moron.
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 10:30
  #3896 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus View Post
I imagine that chief health officers are counselling that Covid might be the gift that keeps on giving to neo-potentates everywhere. Already you can read worrisome advice that the pace of mutations might result in a mutant strain able to escape* the vaccines.

*(immunologist term. Means what you think it does)

The Cassandra-like cautions suggest that we may still end up back at square one dealing with this virus. So nine months worth of scope is either crazy cautious or fetchingly innocent. Someone wake me when its over.
All the scientific commentary I've seen has stated that scientists don't believe current mutations will "escape" the vaccine.

Coronavirus: a single ‘escape mutant’ shouldn’t render a vaccine useless

First vaccine received gets your immune system to create antibodies against SARS-COV-2, which the human body doesn't have unless you've been infected. For next season, probably around the time you usually get a flu vaccine you get a Covid vaccine as well. In time both vaccines may be able to be delivered simultaneously. With mRNA technology we can develop these vaccines targeted towards the expected strains at record speed.

It's actually quite exciting to see how the revolution in medical technology will defeat this pandemic.
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 10:54
  #3897 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post

It's actually quite exciting to see how the revolution in medical technology will defeat this pandemic.
yes that deadly Spanish flu really dragged on compared to this one, it also came back again and again, if only modern technology was around to shave a few months off 100 years ago. We have come so far.
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 15:38
  #3898 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brisbane
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It’s strange, isn’t it Dr Dre.

When I talk to my family, they have a reasonable understanding of the virus, the vaccine, and the repercussions.

When I talk to my neighbours, they have a reasonable understanding of the virus, the vaccine, and the repercussions.

When I go to the shops, or the pub, or a restaurant, they have a reasonable understanding of the virus, the vaccine, and the repercussions.

When I go to work, and talk to my fellow pilots, they have a reasonable understanding of the virus, the vaccine, and the repercussions.

But when I look at PPRuNe, all I see is crap like this:

yes that deadly Spanish flu really dragged on compared to this one, it also came back again and again, if only modern technology was around to shave a few months off 100 years ago. We have come so far.
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Old 3rd Mar 2021, 23:43
  #3899 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
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Haha, if you truly believe this pandemic has been controlled by governments and modern medical science that’s a matter for you. Dan Andrew’s thanks you for your vote.
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Old 4th Mar 2021, 12:12
  #3900 (permalink)  
601
 
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But when I look at PPRuNe, all I see is crap like this:
And in certain sections of the media.
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