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Old 5th Feb 2021, 01:19
  #3441 (permalink)  
 
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KRviator you are spot on with your analysis of experts in my opinion. Expert advice in context! That is how we ended up with compulsory bicycle helmets in Australia when the rest of the world mostly manages without such rules. Medical advice was they should be mandatory and no user group was powerful enough to lobby against the AMA advice.
The answer is simple. The numbers in Australia are low because of the restrictions being implemented around the country. The goal is to avoid the situations playing out in the USA and UK.
I understand that but come on, ONE CASE in Perth and nearly 200 contacts of his test negative and they still are locked down. Madness. McGowan is playing to the WA anti East coast sentiment and has his eye on a landslide at the election.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 01:28
  #3442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Keg
And yet the QLD one yielded only one or two additional cases- all close contacts already in isolation with the patient zero- despite the original HQ worker travelling on public transport for a few days whilst infectious.
The report into that case hasn't been released yet, but the worker may have been aware of their position, they mask have worn a mask, socially distanced, limited their interactions with others. But what we do know is that strain B.1.1.7 is more transmissible if it spreads unchecked into the community. It's much easier to contact trace the close contacts of one case than three. I think the WA government also admitted lowers levels of social distancing in WA factored into their decision making, and not having a real world experience of contact tracing as well. Maybe it'll be different if it happens again?

So far the ‘highly transmissible’ case in Perth who travelled all over the city has yielded precisely zero additional cases.
Again, he may have been cognizant of his possible status and socially distanced. A majority of those infected are not "super spreaders". I do know that if there was a spread of this more transmissible variant in the community the same people who are criticising governments for being too strict would then be complaining that the government failed to pull out all stops to prevent it.

You’d like to think so because the current system of locking down cities for a week at a time for a single case isn’t going to cut the mustard going forward. Interesting to note too that from Friday Perth transitions to virtually their previous protocols. This means a crew arriving from NSW on Saturday is still required to isolate (for up to 14 days but probably only a week until the end of the 28 day cycle) because of the status that WA still has NSW in. This is despite the fact WA had a case roaming the community less than a fortnight ago. It’s complete BS.
Perth isn't "virtually going back to their previous protocols", masks will still be required for a week. And resident domestic aircrews are exempt from the 14 day isolation from NSW into WA. Yes it changes.

At times on this forum I've been accused of not being sympathetic to the plight of air crew who want regular air travel resumed ASAP. Nothing is further from the truth, I want that too. I'm just aware that the new variant getting into the community will probably cause more grief overall than limited restrictions being applied to keep community cases at zero.

If remote quarantine is too hard for some maybe purpose built facilities on the outskirts of cities? Looking at the aircon and airflow in these facilities? Looking at restricting workers to the facility whilst working there and then a quarantine period after with limited movement when they are off duty? Deliver food to their home so they don't have to visit every supermarket in the city? Provide them a self contained apartment so they can live alone? Just trying to think of some solutions to this current hotel quarantine mess.

Of course the ultimate solution is immunisation. I suspect the true reason the Feds aren't too keen on remote quarantine is they've seen the effects of immunisation programs in countries like Israel, which first started vaccinating just 6 weeks ago, and possibly have done the sums and figured out it's cheaper to just accept a few more CBD hotel breakouts before a critical level of vaccination is reached rather than construct purpose built facilities. Already there seems to be cautiously optimistic talk this week of an earlier than expected opening of international borders, it seems the large scale effects of vaccination are better than hoped.
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Madness. McGowan is playing to the WA anti East coast sentiment and has his eye on a landslide at the election.
This is a bit of a side issue for me but I do find it a bit hypocritical that the side of politics which usually complains about governments pandering to minorities and minorities having too much say in the political process is now complaining that a government is acting on the wishes of the overwhelming majority. Not nice to be in a minority is it?
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 01:31
  #3443 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
I understand that but come on, ONE CASE in Perth and nearly 200 contacts of his test negative and they still are locked down. .......
OK, so how many cases of the B117 variant do you think are necessary in the wild before you implement a lock-down?
Would your answer be "Never", by any chance?

If so, please refer Melbourne statistics June thru October.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 01:43
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So far the topic of reopening the international border has not been brought up. Under what circumstance will this happen unrestricted?

Im thinking it could be well into next year
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 01:54
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International borders??? Who has a crystal ball!
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 02:05
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OK, so how many cases of the B117 variant do you think are necessary in the wild before you implement a lock-down?
Would your answer be "Never", by any chance?
Ten is a nice number.

If a couple of his contacts tested positive then there is a trend, which means more can be expected.
Also think about the travelers FROM WA who are in quarantine in other states based on ONE infection in Perth a week ago. Should they be allowed out of their 14 day quarantine given Perth comes out today at 6pm WST?
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 02:59
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...binet/13122610


Multi-million dollar quarantine facility to be built near Toowoomba? Unrestricted opening of international borders is a dream.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 03:19
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AstraZeneca vaccine is set to have full approval by next week was reported today. That could speed travel up. It was good to hear the PM speak about acceptable levels of the virus moving forward. Covid needs to be treated like any other disease once the vaccine rolls out.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 04:14
  #3449 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre
The report into that case hasn't been released yet, but the worker may have been aware of their position, they mask have worn a mask, socially distanced, limited their interactions with others. But what we do know is that strain B.1.1.7 is more transmissible if it spreads unchecked into the community. It's much easier to contact trace the close contacts of one case than three. I think the WA government also admitted lowers levels of social distancing in WA factored into their decision making, and not having a real world experience of contact tracing as well. Maybe it'll be different if it happens again?
It may be more transmissible but the measures to keep it at bay are largely the same. I argue that compliance with existing hygiene protocols is the issue. The premiers are not helping themselves by using hyperbole to justify their actions. The federal government finally mandated mask wearing in airports and on flights when this could have been done months ago without having to learn of a ‘new, highly transmissible strain’ of COVID. The introduction of mandatory negative COVID tests before travel to Australia could have been enacted prior to Jan 2021.

In light of this we learn that in the WA quarantine hotel, there were a mixture of quarantining travellers and other guests, and no mandatory mask-wearing for security guards. Don’t you think we deserve better risk management than that from Health Departments given what we already have learned from a number of serious outbreaks? If you put someone in a dead boring job for 12 hours straight, how long does it take for them to violate one of the protocols, even innocently, due to the lack of stimulus in that role? Perhaps if there was better supervision of existing protocol compliance the entire SW Australian seaboard would not have needed lockdown. The lockdown feels over-compensatory in light of latent basic errors in quarantine management.

As for WA allegedly not having real world experience in contact tracing, come again? They’ve had 10 months of no COVID in the community to prepare for this, learning all the while from other states’ the do’s and don’t’s of outbreak management so forgive me if I’m just a little incredulous at that reasoning. I’m not against lockdowns of varying degrees, if there is a logic to it and a little bit of explanation of the ‘medical advice’ where it differs significantly from other CMOs. It’s not too much to ask for is it?

Clearly, the most recent example would be Victoria and WA’s respective responses this week.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 05:08
  #3450 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001
Ten is a nice number.

If a couple of his contacts tested positive then there is a trend, which means more can be expected.
Also think about the travelers FROM WA who are in quarantine in other states based on ONE infection in Perth a week ago. Should they be allowed out of their 14 day quarantine given Perth comes out today at 6pm WST?
No, because we found the trend or threshold approach to be a disaster.

Remember this? From June 2020....

"However, while the numbers for Victoria are increasing, they're not necessarily cause for alarm."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-...cases/12366884

From two cases to second wave in no time at all.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 05:16
  #3451 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
I’m not against lockdowns of varying degrees, if there is a logic to it and a little bit of explanation of the ‘medical advice’ where it differs significantly from other CMOs. It’s not too much to ask for is it?
Morrison addressed that himself in this ABC live blog of his press conference today (about half way down):

Morrison says the difference between cities like Brisbane and Perth versus Melbourne and New South Wales dealing with cases is that "we are very confident about how Victorians and New South Wales residents would respond".

"Both Western Australia and Queensland haven't had much game time for their systems, with their contact tracing and things like that, as other states have had.

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Old 5th Feb 2021, 06:13
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Iím sorry but as an outsider looking in, thatís one of the most bollocksworthy statements Iíve seen from a politician in this pandemic.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 06:31
  #3453 (permalink)  
 
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Chronic Snoozer, this is a great summary of how I feel...
Perhaps if there was better supervision of existing protocol compliance the entire SW Australian seaboard would not have needed lockdown. The lockdown feels over-compensatory in light of latent basic errors in quarantine management.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 06:40
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39
Iím sorry but as an outsider looking in, thatís one of the most bollocksworthy statements Iíve seen from a politician in this pandemic.
You are in the UK, right?
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 07:01
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Originally Posted by currawong
You are in the UK, right?
ďI was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake handsĒ.......
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 07:15
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Originally Posted by dr dre
ďI was at a hospital the other night where I think there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you will be pleased to know, and I continue to shake handsĒ.......
Hey... I didn't say it was the only one! I didn't vote for that clown...
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 07:19
  #3457 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre
Morrison addressed that himself in this ABC live blog of his press conference today (about half way down):

Morrison says the difference between cities like Brisbane and Perth versus Melbourne and New South Wales dealing with cases is that "we are very confident about how Victorians and New South Wales residents would respond".

"Both Western Australia and Queensland haven't had much game time for their systems, with their contact tracing and things like that, as other states have had.

You have to realise that there is also politics in Morrisonís statement. So do not read anything into that statement.

He knows full well there is a WA election coming up. And with the Liberals already way behind he is deliberately playing it nice with the WA premier so as not to put the state liberals in a more negative light as it appears WA voters are happy with the current handling of the pandemic. Rightly or wrongly.

I would expect the language to change a little after the election.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 08:09
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Originally Posted by Foxxster
You have to realise that there is also politics in Morrisonís statement. So do not read anything into that statement.

He knows full well there is a WA election coming up. And with the Liberals already way behind he is deliberately playing it nice with the WA premier so as not to put the state liberals in a more negative light as it appears WA voters are happy with the current handling of the pandemic. Rightly or wrongly.

I would expect the language to change a little after the election.
The State Libs have zero chance of winning that poll, it doesnít matter what comes out of Morrisonís mouth. Iíd say if anything heís thinking of his own next Federal Election and not losing WA seats.

After the state election itíll be April, the vaccine program will be well underway, a lot of critical groups should have been vaccinated, the risk profile will change and thereíll be a change in health advice and actions, so the language will change from all. No one can say for sure how much, I wouldnít expect full unrestricted international travel of course by that stage but steps will be made.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 08:22
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Originally Posted by dr dre
The State Libs have zero chance of winning that poll, it doesnít matter what comes out of Morrisonís mouth. Iíd say if anything heís thinking of his own next Federal Election and not losing WA seats.
Mr Morrison won't be in any hurry to go to the polls, I suspect.
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Old 5th Feb 2021, 08:36
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The pundits seem to disagree WingNut, he wants to bask in the sweet spot at the end of 2021 as restrictions start to lift and the future looks rosey.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...tion-this-year

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/poli...election-2021/

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...ccine/13109674
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