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Qantas puts Project Sunrise on hold

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Qantas puts Project Sunrise on hold

Old 5th May 2020, 05:01
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Telfer86 View Post

how do you start international to higher infection countries , will countries just do strict bilateral deals with other low infection countries ? , with all sorts
of pre-screening
I would have thought something like this would make sense...although it probably starts to get quite difficult on a larger scale. But initially NZ and the Pacific Islands should open up. And possibly ban people who have visited a country in the last 3 months with a high infection rate (even if itís a transit).

I think the option also needs to be to allow people from overseas the ability to come to Australia, but still have to self quarantine. Quite a few friends of mine have relatives in the UK...relatives who would be desperate to come and see new members of their family, etc.

Also to keep things on an aviation theme, the flying schools around Australia who have cadet contracts would have the ability to bring these students in, have them self quarantine for 2 weeks (whilst having initial theory done remotely) and then kick off flying from there. It seems flight training is one of the only parts of the industry that is continuing at the moment - but as cadet courses finish up, they too will start having significant shut downs in the next few months. This arguably could be the case for all overseas University students (a $12b industry). Admittedly the political appetite for this probably isnít where it needs to be yet, but I hope it happens sooner rather than later.
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Old 5th May 2020, 05:02
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chad Gates View Post
You can only be stood down due to an event out of the airlines control (or any company). It canít be just because they donít want to stand people up. How you prove it, donít know, but they canít just do it forever.

removing the 747 and the A380 from the fleet, is well and truly an event within the airlines control. My 2c
Agree.

Once the airline has restructured with Y number of aircraft requiring X number of crew who are all back working, then excess crew would go through a redundancy process. Whatís the point in negotiating a redundancy package as part of your terms and conditions if every time a business reforms it can simply indefinitely stand down employees until they eventually resign/retire?

I can see this one being decided in the courts.
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Old 5th May 2020, 05:10
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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They will just say they will return people as the demand dictates, that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months. No way would a court say to Qantas, you could be making profit there so either return them to work or make people redundant. Qantas won’t make ANY pilots redundant either voluntarily or otherwise whilst they can have people stood down. Why would they, time gives them options.
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Old 5th May 2020, 05:23
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
They will just say they will return people as the demand dictates, that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months. No way would a court say to Qantas, you could be making profit there so either return them to work or make people redundant. Qantas wonít make ANY pilots redundant either voluntarily or otherwise whilst they can have people stood down. Why would they, time gives them options.
Iím certainly not a lawyer but Iíve been involved in the courts enough to never predict what a labor dispute finding will be, which is where this will ultimately end up if companies donít at some stage follow their redundancy provisions.

Last edited by Progress Wanchai; 5th May 2020 at 05:34.
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Old 5th May 2020, 05:36
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Alan - Morning Board. Weíve got the outgoing cash flow down to $40 mil a week and the company is looking viable till the end of Ď21, in whatís obviously an economic situation the world has never seen. Weíre well positioned to make the most of the recovery when it comes.

Board - Great work Alan, pull this off and youíre a corporate legend.

Alan - Just one thing, weíve obviously got too many pilots and have to start a multi multi multi million dollar CR and RIN on 74 and 380.

Board - RIN? Whatís this RIN?

Alan - Oh itís where we retrain the senior pilots to fly the planes that the junior pilots already fly, that arenít flying much anyway. Then make the junior pilots redundant and pay everyone ENORMOUS amounts of money while we accomplish the whole exercise.

Board - Come again?



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Old 5th May 2020, 05:48
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
They will just say they will return people as the demand dictates, that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months. No way would a court say to Qantas, you could be making profit there so either return them to work or make people redundant. Qantas wonít make ANY pilots redundant either voluntarily or otherwise whilst they can have people stood down. Why would they, time gives them options.
i think the issue might be that we are getting leave and LSL entitlements building up as we are stood down, this canít go on for an extended period as over the employee group it will be another cost that the company wonít want on it books especially if recovery is slow.

More than happy to be proved wrong, but I canít see Alan letting a good crisis go to waste.

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Old 5th May 2020, 06:02
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ANCDU View Post

More than happy to be proved wrong,
Accrual of extra Annual and Long Service leave in a stand down is far less than a minimum redundancy payout, even if the stand down goes on for years. Plus the point is to save cash now. That extra leave accrued can be paid out to pilots in 5, 10, 15 years time.
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Old 5th May 2020, 06:10
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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from someone above "that will mean that International Fleets could be stood down for 12-18 months "

That's saying international flying returns at the same time line for best case vaccine wouldn't you just double the above numbers


The international flying won't even commence until 12 months according to ScoMo , nothing this year

Then cherry pick a few countries you can work with & see what happens , 1 country take it slow , then maybe in a few months another 2

It would be great to go OS we would all like that ; if we are back to 20% by the end of 2021 I would be happy

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Old 5th May 2020, 06:31
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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It has also killed the 3 787ís that weíre supposed to arrive, as well as the NEO for JQ. No new aircraft across the group.
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Old 5th May 2020, 06:51
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Government ministers are saying there could be no international air travel well into 2021.
is this a possibility or scare mongering.
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Old 5th May 2020, 06:54
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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20% of what? 2019 Seat Capacity? Revenue?

787s will kick off with London and LA, followed by the usual Asian suspects. A few times a week to begin then more. Similar to route establishment. Honestly, 20% of 2019 international capacity in 12 months might be quite close. However, we are not defined by the creation of the vaccine. Virus recovery drugs are just as important and are easier to develop than vaccines.

There will come a point where the world has had enough. Hospitals will be better equipped and prepared. Better treatment will be known. The world will go on and so will air travel regardless. In short, I think services will have ramped up certainly within 18 months and QF will be back servicing most destinations again by then. No doubt it will be different. Demand will be reduced. A380s may only go to LAX and LHR, so the refurbished 6 might be it. (But I doubt it) Chicago...nup. 747s gone. But Trans Tasman and domestic leisure demand will explode.

Whether a vaccine is available will ultimately be irrelevant. Whoís to say a new variant doesnít roll around in 12 months.

Have a look at Chinaís domestic airline recovery. Things are never as good as they seem, theyíre also not as bad as you think. JMHO





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Old 5th May 2020, 07:14
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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A little bit of positivity, about a 1/3rd recovery in 2 months.

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Old 5th May 2020, 07:16
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
20% of what? 2019 Seat Capacity? Revenue?

787s will kick off with London and LA, followed by the usual Asian suspects. A few times a week to begin then more. Similar to route establishment. Honestly, 20% of 2019 international capacity in 12 months might be quite close. However, we are not defined by the creation of the vaccine. Virus recovery drugs are just as important and are easier to develop than vaccines.

There will come a point where the world has had enough. Hospitals will be better equipped and prepared. Better treatment will be known. The world will go on and so will air travel regardless. In short, I think services will have ramped up certainly within 18 months and QF will be back servicing most destinations again by then. No doubt it will be different. Demand will be reduced. A380s may only go to LAX and LHR, so the refurbished 6 might be it. (But I doubt it) Chicago...nup. 747s gone. But Trans Tasman and domestic leisure demand will explode.

Whether a vaccine is available will ultimately be irrelevant. Whoís to say a new variant doesnít roll around in 12 months.

Have a look at Chinaís domestic airline recovery. Things are never as good as they seem, theyíre also not as bad as you think. JMHO
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Old 5th May 2020, 07:31
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Once a decision is made regarding the 747 then by rights the RIN process should commence. That decision is likely to be put off as long as possible- perhaps October or November- given they don't actually want to start that process and there is already likely to be a surplus of crew on the A380 as it is.
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Old 5th May 2020, 07:41
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A little birdie View Post
Once a decision is made regarding the 747 then by rights the RIN process should commence. That decision is likely to be put off as long as possible- perhaps October or November- given they don't actually want to start that process and there is already likely to be a surplus of crew on the A380 as it is.
I don't think a RIN was ever designed for such a large scale reduction in numbers of crew and aircraft when there are no current alternatives to replace them. A scenario where a downward cascading training of the more senior crew displacing into the next most junior role, with that pilot then displacing down and so on that could technically involve every long haul pilot could be a possible outcome. It would be prohibitively expensive and there would be almost no ability to conduct the training anyway when there is very little flying going on.

Previously reductions in numbers have also been associated with VR and ability for LWOP to fly at alternative carriers, which have helped avoid the "downwards cascading effect". Lack of cash flow and lack of carriers flying worldwide prevent those two scenarios existing.
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Old 5th May 2020, 08:11
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Qantas sure seem to be going to a lot of effort to get everyone new jobs, their mates in the media showing how much fun people are having doing whatever.

A significant number, especially Campus critters, wonít come back.


Originally Posted by wishiwasupthere View Post
A little bit of positivity, about a 1/3rd recovery in 2 months.

Departures ≠ bums on seats. Plenty of empty planes flying between Australia and China right now.
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Old 5th May 2020, 08:24
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
I don't think a RIN was ever designed for such a large scale reduction in numbers of crew and aircraft when there are no current alternatives to replace them. A scenario where a downward cascading training of the more senior crew displacing into the next most junior role, with that pilot then displacing down and so on that could technically involve every long haul pilot could be a possible outcome. It would be prohibitively expensive and there would be almost no ability to conduct the training anyway when there is very little flying going on.

Previously reductions in numbers have also been associated with VR and ability for LWOP to fly at alternative carriers, which have helped avoid the "downwards cascading effect". Lack of cash flow and lack of carriers flying worldwide prevent those two scenarios existing.
It's for sure an interesting scenario.

The cost with a RIN and training alone would be unreal. Qantas will go with the cheapest option. Everyone will remain stood down and rotated for flying on seniority. Over time attrition and a recovery of the flying will see everyone back to some normality. I think this will take a good 2-3 years for international.

A lot of pilots wont like that, but tough. Everyone is going to take a hit.
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Old 5th May 2020, 08:39
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by normanton View Post
It's for sure an interesting scenario.

The cost with a RIN and training alone would be unreal. Qantas will go with the cheapest option. Everyone will remain stood down and rotated for flying on seniority. Over time attrition and a recovery of the flying will see everyone back to some normality. I think this will take a good 2-3 years for international.

A lot of pilots wont like that, but tough. Everyone is going to take a hit.
Of course this is fact as you have said it and itís come direct from AIPA and Qantas.
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Old 5th May 2020, 08:41
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Are you suggesting that International numbers will be the same in two years ? , say April 2022

Not even starting international until 2021 , allow that to slip a couple of months , so from nothing to everything in 14 months

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade & we all want to see this come back asap

But two years means everything goes on rails , vaccine developed in best case time frame , then manufactured and given to 7 B people
, no second wave or hiccup of any kind & also assuming that people won't be scared to travel internationally & there will be the same demand from business & capacity to pay

I reckon getting back to half pre-covid after three years would be a great result
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Old 5th May 2020, 08:58
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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But it doesn’t have to be a 100% return, even if there is just 20% of the network this time next year at least some will be back at work.
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