Originally Posted by
A little birdie
Once a decision is made regarding the 747 then by rights the RIN process should commence. That decision is likely to be put off as long as possible- perhaps October or November- given they don't actually want to start that process and there is already likely to be a surplus of crew on the A380 as it is.
I don't think a RIN was ever designed for such a large scale reduction in numbers of crew and aircraft when there are no current alternatives to replace them. A scenario where a downward cascading training of the more senior crew displacing into the next most junior role, with that pilot then displacing down and so on that could technically involve every long haul pilot could be a possible outcome. It would be prohibitively expensive and there would be almost no ability to conduct the training anyway when there is very little flying going on.
Previously reductions in numbers have also been associated with VR and ability for LWOP to fly at alternative carriers, which have helped avoid the "downwards cascading effect". Lack of cash flow and lack of carriers flying worldwide prevent those two scenarios existing.