Originally Posted by
crosscutter
20% of what? 2019 Seat Capacity? Revenue?
787s will kick off with London and LA, followed by the usual Asian suspects. A few times a week to begin then more. Similar to route establishment. Honestly, 20% of 2019 international capacity in 12 months might be quite close. However, we are not defined by the creation of the vaccine. Virus recovery drugs are just as important and are easier to develop than vaccines.
There will come a point where the world has had enough. Hospitals will be better equipped and prepared. Better treatment will be known. The world will go on and so will air travel regardless. In short, I think services will have ramped up certainly within 18 months and QF will be back servicing most destinations again by then. No doubt it will be different. Demand will be reduced. A380s may only go to LAX and LHR, so the refurbished 6 might be it. (But I doubt it) Chicago...nup. 747s gone. But Trans Tasman and domestic leisure demand will explode.
Whether a vaccine is available will ultimately be irrelevant. Who’s to say a new variant doesn’t roll around in 12 months.
Have a look at China’s domestic airline recovery. Things are never as good as they seem, they’re also not as bad as you think. JMHO
You started reasonably then aliens came or you got carried away