Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

Air NZ pilot redundancies

Old 8th Apr 2020, 23:52
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Just being realistic here, with all the forecasts for extremely limited international services in the short and medium term. 387 redundancies wonít be nearly enough and will only be the first wave. I hope Iím wrong however.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 23:56
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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There isn't going to be a positive outcome for Air NZ. Either the travel will be decimated for the foreseeable future or Air NZ is going to disarm itself for a potential return to normality.
Like they said "a domestic airline with limited international services". That's all it is going to be.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 00:36
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Letís hope Air NZ can use the spare capacity for Domestic Australia flights , better than an Asian carrier coming in .
Also hope the unions can work a deal for all to go part time so the redundancy is limited.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 01:30
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Rabbitwear why is it better than an Asian carrier?
Sir Selwyn would probably say the same thing twenty years ago and from his cell today
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 01:35
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by markontop View Post
Rabbitwear why is it better than an Asian carrier?
Sir Selwyn would probably say the same thing twenty years ago and from his cell today

Itís better for Air NZ!
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 01:40
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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The last thing that the Flying Koru should do is have anything to do with domestic Australia.

It needs to concentrate on getting domestic back up to speed, albeit at a reduced frequency, and possibly flights to RAR, TBU, APW, IUE and NAN but only if FJ fails.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 01:59
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Yes they should have had nothing to do with Australian domestic twenty years ago.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 02:10
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by markontop View Post
Rabbitwear why is it better than an Asian carrier?
Because there is already an Australia/New Zealand open skies agreement, making it very easy for the government to facilitate Air NZs entry to the Aussie domestic market.

Air New Zealand will have spare airframes for a long time to come. In 6-12 months would they be better served earning revenue in the Aussie market or sitting on the ramp gathering dust. If there is a gap in the market with the collapse of virgin I’m sure there could be a viable business case.

Airwork operate ZK registered 737 freighters domestically in Aus and also have bases here Im lead to believe.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 02:22
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
Probably germane to this discussion:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...mestic-airline

"Air New Zealand has said it is planning to be a domestic airline, with limited international services for the foreseeable future. But with potentially a third of the workforce being laid off, and future domestic demand running at 1 per cent ó it begs the question: what kind of domestic airline will Air New Zealand be?"
Domestic demand is at 1 per cent because travel is effectively banned for the next two weeks. There is no reason why domestic travel wonít be doing well in 12 months time.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 04:03
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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A Domestic Airline with limited International services is obviously what the next 6-12 months look like.. possibly the next 18-24 months if the World really drops the ball with COVID. However, lets get Realistic here for a moment.

Of the 1100(ish) operational Pilots, 650 are on Widebody's and 450 on the Airbus. Wipe 387 off the bottom and there goes 2/3 of the Airbus FO's (and SO's).
Let assume the 777 is never to fly again, that's approximately 250 Captains and FO's who need down training. (We'll ignore the surviving SO's for now)
Lets assume the 787 Workload is halved, that will add another 100 or so Widebody Pilots that need a seat change.

So we have 250 777 Pilots, who are (mostly) Senior to the 787 Pilots, so potentially all 200 787 Pilots will get Down-trained as 250 777 Pilots are allocated the remaining 100 or so 787 Jobs.
Once that's happened, there's now approximately 350 Widebody Pilots to filter down onto the Airbus fleet.. Seniority will be all over the place here due to lifestyle choices and over 65's on the Airbus, but for the most Part, the Widebody Pilots will have seniority and many A320 Pilots will be down-trained.

Of Course, Down-Training is Seniority based but you then need to consider the implications of down-training a Standards Pilot off a Fleet and reducing the training capacity. Then you run into the issue of displacing Queenstown qualified Airbus Pilots, and finally, as Junior Airbus Captains on year 2-3 Pay are replaced by Senior Widebody Pilots on year 12 pay, they wage bill for the Airbus Fleet will increase by $30-$50k per Captain (and similar in the FO Ranks).

Once all of the above has been tidied up and all surviving Pilots have been re-shuffled to their new positions it'll be 2025 and COVID will have either decimated the Planet (in which case the above never happened because everyone lost their jobs), or it'll be well behind us.

The point I'm trying to make, is Logistically, the Airline simply cannot re-shuffle Hundreds of Pilots overnight... and by the time they've finished, COVID will hopefully be behind us.
If they make too many Redundant off the bottom, the Airbus Fleet won't be able to operate. Yes, they can quickly down-train Captains to the RHS, but again, it's Seniority based, meaning any surviving SO's must be appointed first and they require a full course.
Secondly, another Problem with "Last on First off" Redundancies is that the most expensive Pilots (Widebody Captains) are un-touchable yet have very little work if we become a "domestic Airline".

Don't get me wrong, of the 1200 Pilots on the list, I'm in the bottom half and have been polishing up my CV and budgeting on a period of LWOP or Reduced Pay.
This is an extremely complex problem to solve (for all Airlines) due to the Logistics of large scale seat changes.
I expect there's to be a lot of Leave without Pay offers and Part-Time agreements on the table while we navigate COVID.
387 Redundancies might not enough for the April 2021 schedule, but it could well be too many for the April 2022 Schedule.

Anyone got a Crystal Ball?

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Old 9th Apr 2020, 04:59
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
A Domestic Airline with limited International services is obviously what the next 6-12 months look like.. possibly the next 18-24 months if the World really drops the ball with COVID. However, lets get Realistic here for a moment.

Of the 1100(ish) operational Pilots, 650 are on Widebody's and 450 on the Airbus. Wipe 387 off the bottom and there goes 2/3 of the Airbus FO's (and SO's).
Let assume the 777 is never to fly again, that's approximately 250 Captains and FO's who need down training. (We'll ignore the surviving SO's for now)
Lets assume the 787 Workload is halved, that will add another 100 or so Widebody Pilots that need a seat change.

So we have 250 777 Pilots, who are (mostly) Senior to the 787 Pilots, so potentially all 200 787 Pilots will get Down-trained as 250 777 Pilots are allocated the remaining 100 or so 787 Jobs.
Once that's happened, there's now approximately 350 Widebody Pilots to filter down onto the Airbus fleet.. Seniority will be all over the place here due to lifestyle choices and over 65's on the Airbus, but for the most Part, the Widebody Pilots will have seniority and many A320 Pilots will be down-trained.

Of Course, Down-Training is Seniority based but you then need to consider the implications of down-training a Standards Pilot off a Fleet and reducing the training capacity. Then you run into the issue of displacing Queenstown qualified Airbus Pilots, and finally, as Junior Airbus Captains on year 2-3 Pay are replaced by Senior Widebody Pilots on year 12 pay, they wage bill for the Airbus Fleet will increase by $30-$50k per Captain (and similar in the FO Ranks).

Once all of the above has been tidied up and all surviving Pilots have been re-shuffled to their new positions it'll be 2025 and COVID will have either decimated the Planet (in which case the above never happened because everyone lost their jobs), or it'll be well behind us.

The point I'm trying to make, is Logistically, the Airline simply cannot re-shuffle Hundreds of Pilots overnight... and by the time they've finished, COVID will hopefully be behind us.
If they make too many Redundant off the bottom, the Airbus Fleet won't be able to operate. Yes, they can quickly down-train Captains to the RHS, but again, it's Seniority based, meaning any surviving SO's must be appointed first and they require a full course.
Secondly, another Problem with "Last on First off" Redundancies is that the most expensive Pilots (Widebody Captains) are un-touchable yet have very little work if we become a "domestic Airline".

Don't get me wrong, of the 1200 Pilots on the list, I'm in the bottom half and have been polishing up my CV and budgeting on a period of LWOP or Reduced Pay.
This is an extremely complex problem to solve (for all Airlines) due to the Logistics of large scale seat changes.
I expect there's to be a lot of Leave without Pay offers and Part-Time agreements on the table while we navigate COVID.
387 Redundancies might not enough for the April 2021 schedule, but it could well be too many for the April 2022 Schedule.

Anyone got a Crystal Ball?
Is it possible to just leave the top half in the mean time and focus on down training 320 Caps back to FOís in reverse seniority order as required? The guys at the top just wait it out for the next 12 months? Can you get made to take a 320 command if youíre a 777 SO?
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 05:24
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by go123 View Post
Is it possible to just leave the top half in the mean time and focus on down training 320 Caps back to FO’s in reverse seniority order as required? The guys at the top just wait it out for the next 12 months? Can you get made to take a 320 command if you’re a 777 SO?
If the bottom half lost their Jobs it'd wipe out a lot of A320 Captains along with all the FO's/SO's. In terms of Down-Training Vs Direction, I haven't looked as to how the 2 interact. Direction is from the bottom up, Down-Training is also from the bottom up, but contained within a Fleet/Rank which has a surplus. Honestly, when it comes to Senior Lifestyle SO's who let the Command go below them, I'm not sure who would get directed first.

At the end of the day, International Flying makes up 2/3 of our Schedule.
If we're a Domestic only Airline, then we only need ~300 Pilots resulting in 900 odd redundancies.
If we have 'limited" international sectors, then the borders must be open? If the Borders are open, then slowly people will resume flying again.

In other words, we either need 300 Pilots, or we need 800-900 (still a reduction on current numbers). Anything in between just doesn't add up in my opinion.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 05:42
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Mammoth task
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 07:02
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Letís hope Air NZ can use the spare capacity for Domestic Australia flights , better than an Asian carrier coming in .
Also hope the unions can work a deal for all to go part time so the redundancy is limited.
That will never happen with the current QF/ANZ codeshare in place.

Because there is already an Australia/New Zealand open skies agreement, making it very easy for the government to facilitate Air NZs entry to the Aussie domestic market.
Not a chance with the codeshare agreement in place. In this environment neither party will be wanting to jeopardise this arrangement.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 07:10
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=
Not a chance with the codeshare agreement in place. In this environment neither party will be wanting to jeopardise this arrangement.[/QUOTE]

Qantas group (Jetstar) operates domestic NZ with this codeshare agreement in place. I donít see how this would be different
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 08:12
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Two things:

If, as I suspect, the limited international is to the Pacific Islands, those flights can be operated by the A321 Neo. Other international will be predominately freight to SHA and possibly LAX for which the 773 is a better option as it can carry more freight than the 789.

I wouldn't expect to see JQ back in Godzone any time soon
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 08:19
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Air NZ will survive with the Govt pumping nearly $ 1 b into their coffers. The pilots unions need to be realistic and play their part in the future size and shape of the new airline . Is it realistic to expect an airline haemorrhaging money to retrain a huge number of pilots on different types and then pay them WB salaries to fly a domestic A320.

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Old 9th Apr 2020, 08:31
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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anyone suggesting that?

i dont see it.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 08:34
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
Two things:

If, as I suspect, the limited international is to the Pacific Islands, those flights can be operated by the A321 Neo. Other international will be predominately freight to SHA and possibly LAX for which the 773 is a better option as it can carry more freight than the 789.

I wouldn't expect to see JQ back in Godzone any time soon

Jetstar is expecting NZ to be the first domestic operation to ramp up again, it will only be two or three aircraft to start with but they want to protect some market share. The advantage JQ has is a very lean cost base so they will still be able to make some money selling $39 fares, I am not so sure Air NZ can compete on a cost basis, yes Air NZ will dominate but I don’t think JQ keeping their 10% market share is going to be Air NZ’s biggest issue.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 08:50
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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The Link operation should be in a good position to kick start domestic demand. I'm sure under the circumstances punters would tolerate a prop on the WGN - AKL route and even CHC - AKL with the right incentives.
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