Mt Erebus Disaster 40th Anniversary

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by Okihara

Jaayyus, how much longer before this thread becomes bigger than the Glen Buckley vs. CASA one?

It has amazed me how for so many years there are still posters who whinge and complain about the threads on Pprune - ‘how much longer’, ‘please Mods close it’, ‘boring’, ‘same old story’ etc. Mate, if you don’t like it then don’t read it. Nobody is forcing you to read the threads or be involved in the discussion. It’s not law, you are not obligated, there is no compulsion. Simple = just go!

[megan]

prospector, re Hawkins, his case demonstrates the reason the truth will never be known. He stated he went down to 6,000, his F/O said they stayed at 16,000, a reporter said he was told by one of the pilots they went to between 1,200 and 1,300 and wrote an article to that effect, while a passenger understood the flight went down to 1,000. Being the Flight Manager Hawkins came under the management umbrella and might be expected to toe the company line of nothing to see here. We will never know, the orchestrated litany of lies quote did come about for good reason after all.

Hawkins article of two days ago.

https://www.pressreader.com/new-zeal...81805695799780

Trip by Pippa to the ice.

https://www.watchme.co.nz/news/erebu...WatchMeSlider1

[3 Holer]

Whilst reading that article by Mayne Hawkins, I got the same uneasy feeling I experienced when watching the BBC interview with Prince Andrew about his relationship with Jeffery Epstein and a young vulnerable woman. I can't put my finger on the deja vu but I feel it has something to do with honesty and telling the truth.

[prospector]

Megan, You may believe the orchestrated litany of lies. I do not. Neither did the Appeal Court, nor the Privy Council, and neither did Judge Harold Greene of the U.S. district Court Washington.

One point that has not been discussed in this latest discussion on Erebus was the use of the weather radar in mapping mode.

" Many pilots flying DC10's to the Antarctic used the weather radar in mapping mode,which clearly confirmed the outline of Ross Island and its high ground that they could see through the cockpit windows. in the clear Antarctic conditions. The Chippindale Report covered that point. However, when Justice Mahon visited Bendix , the radar manufacturer in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, he was told that because the radar depended on returns from moisture to indicate cloud ahead, the essentially dry ice of Antarctica would absorb the radar pulses and therefor Mt.Erebus would not show on the screen. It was just one of the several major points .he was given outside the Royal Commission, without technical advice and unable to be challenged by counsel representing the various parties at the hearing, but which he took into account when reaching his final OPINION"

Now then, were all the pilots flying the DC10 in Antarctica lying about the capability of the radar in mapping mode?. In that clip showing Mt Erebus, and if you go to google earth pro, and home on Erebus you will see there are many rock faces that are to steep to hold ice, and also home on Beaufort Island you will see the coastline is to steep to hold ice and much rock showing that would surely show up on the radar in mapping mode.

So now we have none of the methods available to confirm position before descent below MSA used to confirm position, no radar ident, no radar fix, not even checkiing coordinates on the INS, which once below MSA was not cleared for navigation.

Again I repeat as printed in an earlier post quoting Bob Thomson "The captain didn't give attention to the problems that he might have around there. These people were taking a Sunday drive'

How did Mahon come to the opinion he stated??

[GlueBall]

Originally Posted by 3 Holer

I am sure if Collins had been told that the track had been changed the night before he would have done exactly that. To quote Paul Lupp, Hindsight is nearly always 20:20

So what are you telling us? That it’s normal just to enter the flight plan’s coordinates into the Delco Carousel-4A or Litton-72 box, assuming that they’re the same as yesterday’s or last week’s and be done with it? Without cross-checking the positions on a map or plotting chart? The crew had over 5 hours en route to dabble with that. And it was Collins’ first Antarctica trip.

[morno]

Originally Posted by GlueBall

So what are you telling us? That it’s normal just to enter the flight plan’s coordinates into the Delco Carousel-4A or Litton-72 box, assuming that they’re the same as yesterday’s or last week’s and be done with it? Without cross-checking the positions on a map or plotting chart? The crew had over 5 hours en route to dabble with that. And it was Collins’ first Antarctica trip.

Exactly, that's the point I was trying to make before. Just because you THINK you know where you are, doesn't mean are you, so until you KNOW, you don't descend below MSA. It's quite simple really!

[3 Holer]

Originally Posted by morno

Exactly, that's the point I was trying to make before. Just because you THINK you know where you are, doesn't mean are you, so until you KNOW, you don't descend below MSA. It's quite simple really!

Yes, very simple morno. How simple the Navigation Dept changing the co-ordinates of the final way point the night before Jim Collin's flight and just telling him the next day before the flight departed. Yep, simple really.

[The name is Porter]

It's quite simple really!

morno, I believe you're smarter than that. This accident was far from simple. Until you're part of an incident that has significant managerial and ops input, I guess it's simple?

[Okihara]

Originally Posted by Paragraph377

It has amazed me how for so many years there are still posters who whinge and complain about the threads on Pprune - ‘how much longer’, ‘please Mods close it’, ‘boring’, ‘same old story’ etc. Mate, if you don’t like it then don’t read it. Nobody is forcing you to read the threads or be involved in the discussion. It’s not law, you are not obligated, there is no compulsion. Simple = just go!

My sincere apologies if my rhetorical question caused your sneeze above. For the record, I really enjoy reading this thread and your contributions to it. Similarly, I also enjoy reading a few others when I find myself not having the time to fly.

[PapaHotel6]

Originally Posted by 3 Holer

Whilst reading that article by Mayne Hawkins, I got the same uneasy feeling I experienced when watching the BBC interview with Prince Andrew about his relationship with Brian Epstein and a young vulnerable woman. I can't put my finger on the deja vu but I feel it has something to do with honesty and telling the truth.

Prince Andrew & Brian Epstein?? Wasn't aware of that one; presumably Andrew wanted front row seats to a Beatles concert and gave Brian "favours" in return. Or did you mean Jeffrey Epstein?

[3 Holer]

Thank you PH6 and edited accordingly. A mental flash back to the 60's briefly whilst typing I guess, I was a big Beatles fan!

[PapaHotel6]

Originally Posted by megan

We will never know, the orchestrated litany of lies quote did come about for good reason after all.

It did indeed. The reason was, that Mahon could not reconcile his own conclusion with a body of evidence that contradicted it. Therefore he had to reject that evidence as lies.

[morno]

Originally Posted by The name is Porter

morno, I believe you're smarter than that. This accident was far from simple. Until you're part of an incident that has significant managerial and ops input, I guess it's simple?

Yes sorry Porter, I probably shouldn't have put that last sentence in. I know that there were many factors contributing to this accident, but the final line of defence was that confirmation of position before descent below MSA don't you agree? Had that occurred, like we all do on a daily basis (most of us), then the accident potentially could have been avoided.

[3 Holer]

Originally Posted by PapaHotel6

...............Mahon could not reconcile his own conclusion with a body of evidence that contradicted it.

You're confused putting the cart before the horse. It was the body of evidence (read: the orchestrated litany of lies) that lead Mahon to his conclusion.

[PapaHotel6]

Originally Posted by morno

Yes sorry Porter, I probably shouldn't have put that last sentence in. I know that there were many factors contributing to this accident, but the final line of defence was that confirmation of position before descent below MSA don't you agree? Had that occurred, like we all do on a daily basis (most of us), then the accident potentially could have been avoided.

Failure to confirm position prior to descent was certainly an error of judgment and airmanship but it was far from the only one and far from the last one. If he had confirmed position, the accident most definitely would not have occurred (not "probably could have been avoided"). After that one particularly bad call however, if Collins had:

- paid heed to Brooks's expressions of unease "where's Erebus in relation to us at the moment/I'm just thinking of any high ground in the area that's all/I don't like this"
- aborted the descent at 2000' when he found himself not in VFR/sightseeing conditions rather than descending further to 1500'
- immediately climbed out at 1500' when things seemed not as they should, given they'd already breached MSA, not maintained VHF contact with McMurdo

the accident also would have been avoided.

[PapaHotel6]

Originally Posted by 3 Holer

You're confused putting the cart before the horse. It was the body of evidence (read: the orchestrated litany of lies) that lead Mahon to his conclusion.

Disagree. It was Mahon who put the cart before the horse. If you read his book, it's clear he was manipulated by ALPA from early on and clear he failed to maintain an open mind until he'd heard all the evidence. He developed confirmation bias and therefore rejected anything as false that threatened his predetermined view.

[The name is Porter]

but the final line of defence was that confirmation of position before descent below MSA don't you agree?

I do agree. Absolutely.

I had't done much reading on this accident, the 40th anniversary got my interest. The more I read the more I questioned the 'whole' story. It appears there are two camps, those hell bent on blaming Collins, those hell bent on blaming Air New Zealand. Personally I think the causal factors of this accident are incredibly complex, perhaps if politicians, in particular one had kept their nose out of things the accident report may have had a chance.

[megan]

prospector, Hawkins descent to 6,000 is another point that highlights the failure to comply with SOP. The requirements to be met for a VMC or IMC descent,

Permission has been given to descend to 6,000 ft QNH in VMC conditions, or using the approved NDB procedure in IMC conditions, provided that;

1. cloud base reported to be 7,000 or better
2. visibility reported to be 20 km or better
3. ASR is available and used to monitor flight below FL160
4. no snow showers in the area

At the time both VMC and IMC descents required monitoring by radar, to say otherwise is to say 20 km vis and no snow showers were not a requirement either. He was not monitored by radar.

[3 Holer]

Originally Posted by PapaHotel6

.....................He developed confirmation bias and therefore rejected anything as false that threatened his predetermined view.

Quote: Confirmation Bias: bias that results from the tendency to process and analyze information in such a way that it supports one’s preexisting ideas and convictions:

Mahon had no pre-existing ideas or convictions when selected by the NZ government to preside over the Erebus Inquiry. Are you seriously suggesting Piggy Muldoon and Air NZ would have allowed that to occur.
The only conviction Mahon had was to see justice after hearing months of testimony (including the litany of lies), researching relevant data pertaining to white out and Antarctic operations from the U.S. Air Force and then presenting those logical and obvious findings from that Inquiry.

Thankfully, despite all the presumptions, assumptions (from experts who were not present in the cockpit), appeals to the High Court, Privy Council and a plethora of other amateur wannabe legal eagles having their two bobs worth, those findings of the Mahon Inquiry in the Erebus disaster, remain final and official to this day.

[prospector]

Megan.

Splitting hairs, the weather conditions at McMurdo were well below that required for descent on this particular day. When a very experienced Antarctic weather observer advises that the conditions at McMurdo are no good for a scenic flight, and are well below those required for a VMC descent and the captain decides, on his own, without any conferring with any other crew member as to his self designed descent procedure, disregarding all the safeguards that had been built into the requirements for these flights to proceed to Antarctica, and never having been down to the ice previously, is flying a DC10 at 260+ knots, at slightly below 1,500ft and not knowing his exact position, is blameless???, Then I believe the Chippindale report on the accident, where he did not apportion blame, which is not the requirement of an accident report, it is to find the cause, states that the "probable cause" is a far more balanced report, taking in facts that he was perfectly aware of being an experienced airman himself, is a far more credible report. Who were Justice Mahon's technical advisers? the question of radar returns is a good example of lack of knowledge.

It has also been reported that the Minister of Transport at the time has stated, with hindsight, that it was a mistake to only appoint one commissioner, should have been more.