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Qantas non-stop PER to LHR?

Old 13th Dec 2016, 03:38
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Something else our Sydney-centric viewers can't seem to fathom is the significant passenger market that exists between Perth and London. According to some studies, the total number of people in Perth who were either born in the UK or have close family connections is as large as that in Sydney or Melbourne. At the moment, that market cannot fly to London from Perth with Qantas without backtracking to the east coast. Sure, they can take an Emirates code-share flight, but how many bother booking through Qantas when they can book directly with Emirates, or take one of the many other options that are available with other airlines via Asia or the Middle East? Do you not think that Qantas should do something to try and tap that market?
Yes. This is likely the key to a lot of it, and my personal opinion is that Perth alone will contribute a VAST majority of the business for this service. The UK Passport holding population of Perth alone is almost the size of Darwins total Population.

Add to that there are people who WANT to fly Qantas. They recognise that they have upped their game a bit over the last few years, and if they only flew services to and from where they wanted to go (i.e.; ex ADL and PER), then they'd go QF.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 04:01
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Now as long as QF get the departure out of LHR right to ensure a short transit in PER for the connection to ADL to beat the ADL curfew we will be laughing. Fingers crossed. If they do that will be 25% of the flight full for a start.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 04:33
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Might have missed this but is there any news as to what time of day / night the service departs Perth?
From an SLF point of view, particularly if I'm in the pointy bit, a 9pm departure out of Perth and into LHR early morning has a certain appeal. That could work for those coming in from the East Coast. If however it's an early morning departure out of Perth then it makes it much harder for east coast connections, and a late afternoon arrival into LHR makes no difference.
Will QF get a say in this or does it depend on available slots at LHR ?
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 04:42
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Originally Posted by Tuck Mach
Leadsled raises an interesting perspective.

The Asian route ex Australia to London was around 6 and a bit hours to WSSS.
Then circa 12 to EGLL.
SYD- SIN was close to 8:30 block- flight time was often just either side of 8 hours. SIN- LHR exceeded 14:00 block and frequently 14:30.

The quickest route to LHR was SYD- HKG- LHR. 9 and 12:30ish on the 744 from memory- 2006 was the last time I flew that route.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 04:45
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^^^^ this
Nice try tm
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 05:10
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Originally Posted by flitegirl
What is the likely fate of the spare 747? Retirement or deployed elsewhere?
Two B747's (OJM & OEB) will have to go in 2018 due to them coming up to expensive "D" checks (fourth). The three remaining Rollers (OJS/T/U) will probably remain in service but will require a "C" check (extension of 2 years) or a "D" check (third - 6 years) in the 2018/19 timeframe. The six ER's come up for their third "D" check in 2020/21.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 05:35
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1000kg of fuel costs 218kg to carry over 10.5hrs on a 787-8 on a certain day in September.

Fuel uplift on that day was 56t, add another 7 hours at 4800kg/hr, rounding out to 90t uplift to get to LHR from PER. (It may or may not burn more than the -8).

The uplift can be refined with a sharp pencil and some capping of reserves and good route optimisation.

Max fuel uplift on 787-8 and 9 is 101t.

MTOW of 252t, (may not be accurate)
Empty Weight approx 125t (may not be accurate)
FOB 90t
Available payload 37t.

So, it is all possible on paper, taking into account changes in operating weights etc.

Good luck to QF, it is a bold statement to the competition, and could be the launching pad for SYD/MEL/BNE to Rome, Frankfurt or Athens in the future.

The public will vote with their bums.

Last edited by Roj approved; 13th Dec 2016 at 06:01.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 06:03
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So a 17.5 hour direct flight + getting to and leaving airports. Hmm! Last time we did Sydney from London we stopped off in Bangkok going and Hong Kong on the way back. 11.5 + 5 hours or so was a long time, but 17.5 hours in one? I really don't relish the prospect in an upright economy seat. I can't snooze or sleep for more than a couple of hours at a time even with low cabin lights, there is just too much going on. A flat bed/seat would cost too much, and even then you wouldn't sleep for all that time. On an 11 hour cross-channel car ferry we have a proper en-suite cabin with berths and that's fine. Something similar on the aircraft, a mini-cabin, might work but cost more, of course, but I just cannot get excited about long distance flights at all, unless I have to.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 06:13
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Flying from London to Perth it's another story. If the aircraft was unable to land at Perth the closest airfields capable of handling the Dreamliner are at Learmonth, 1097kms away, or Adelaide, which is 2117kms distant. Perth is rarely shut down by bad weather but if that were to happen when a Dreamliner from London was approaching from over the Indian Ocean, the expression "a wing and a prayer" might spring to mind.

Read more: Qantas non-stop Perth to London flights from east coast: The issues
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Seems like I'm not the only one concerned about a diversion.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 06:19
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Perth is rarely shut down by bad weather but if that were to happen when a Dreamliner from London was approaching from over the Indian Ocean, the expression "a wing and a prayer" might spring to mind.
Idiottttt....
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 06:46
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As usual, it's all about the "east coast". Apparently nothing exists west of Melbourne.

For goodness sake, Perth didn't suddenly become isolated yesterday. How do you think Qantas and all the other international airlines have been flying safely into Perth for the last 50+ years? Is it possible that Qantas might have actually done a teensy bit of homework during their planning and might have considered the diversion options as part of that planning? Golly, how novel...

Last edited by BuzzBox; 13th Dec 2016 at 07:03.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 07:26
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Is cognitive dissonance a pre-requisite here?

So my recollection was different, but then again I was talking flight time. Did Alan say block time? I have also flown the route many times, and my logbook dusted off is a little different . I was a little light from recollection on the YSSY to WSSS it averaged around 07 .45 flight time, the Mach number roughly the same as the M0.85 as expected from the 787. To EGLL was around 13.30 (without holding) Talking semantics here it is pretty much identical, in flight time.. That is around 5 hours flight time to Perth then another flight time of 17 hours to London. Customers have a choice, it would be interesting to see the research done on the route.

''SYD- SIN was close to 8:30 block- flight time was often just either side of 8 hours. SIN- LHR exceeded 14:00 block and frequently 14:30.

The quickest route to LHR was SYD- HKG- LHR. 9 and 12:30ish on the 744 from memory- 2006 was the last time I flew that route.''


As always Stanwell picked up my theme.

Colin Barnett and Alan with the Dick Emery veneers holding a model is a long way from an RPT service. I hope for the pilots at Qantas it happens, a small caveat if i may ; there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge, some of it beyond the control of Qantas which negatively impacts yield and revenue, not just costs.


Well...
If they are trying to market Perth as a destination, why the need to provide, at great expense to the taxpayer, an international facility within the domestic terminal for the convenient and rapid transhipment of Qantas pax?

As had been noted early on in this thread, Premier Barnett and his party are in serious electoral trouble - and the state elections are looming.
I see the equivalent of a conjurer's trick - something like pulling a rabbit out of a hat or, 'now you see it .. now you don't.'

As for Qantas, well, look at all the beaut media-led brand exposure that's been achieved - at minimal cost.
As we all know, promises cost nothing.

The part played by Geoffrey Thomas and West Australian Newspapers in this funny business should not be ignored, either.
Strong conservative leanings and consistent support for the LNP coalition on their part might also tell you something.
I smell a rat.

As always, trust but verify. Come back in 18 months and say we were wrong am happy to be corrected, until then hope your management are this time being straightforward.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 11:47
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Very boring Tuck Mach.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 11:52
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Originally Posted by ExtraShot
Yes. This is likely the key to a lot of it, and my personal opinion is that Perth alone will contribute a VAST majority of the business for this service. The UK Passport holding population of Perth alone is almost the size of Darwins total Population.

Add to that there are people who WANT to fly Qantas. They recognise that they have upped their game a bit over the last few years, and if they only flew services to and from where they wanted to go (i.e.; ex ADL and PER), then they'd go QF.
having flown thru Dubai (as pax) numerous times in the last 2-3 yrs, my family and I would pay good money to not do so again. Make of that what you will.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 21:17
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Cognitive dissonance? On a thread where you've constantly bagged QF's approach to this route and lambasted them over their 'spin' of the issue you're getting uppity because someone points out a flaw in your numbers?

Trust but verify has always been the mantra in aviation. I've always been an advocate of the "it's not assured until the first aeroplane in mainline couloirs and crewed by mainline pilots pulls away from the terminal on the first revenue service" approach to management. For those employed by their respective airlines, the only game in town is to trust their respective managements make the right calls. Then again it's easier to trust this call than the pie in the sky announcement that was Red Q.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 21:53
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Oh well, the 'bridges were nice while they lasted... back to the 500 bays with ya!
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Old 14th Dec 2016, 05:26
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Would upgrading Perth and Pearce to Cat111 be the cheapest way of solving Qantas' alternate dellemma for Perth , which is effectively an Isolated Airport?
Would be a lot cheaper than upgrading a nearby airport to full international widebody capabilities.

Like this event dejapoo?

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/24331/...605473_001.pdf
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Old 14th Dec 2016, 05:39
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Would upgrading Perth and Pearce to Cat111 be the cheapest way of solving Qantas' alternate dellemma for Perth...
Nope. Pearce is only 16nm north of Perth and the forecasts for the two are invariably the same. If the forecast for Perth is rubbish then Pearce will also be rubbish and not suitable for planning as an alternate, even with Cat III. By the way, Perth is already being upgraded to Cat III.

Last edited by BuzzBox; 14th Dec 2016 at 05:52.
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Old 14th Dec 2016, 06:08
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So PER LHR will be the QF 9/10 and take the LHR slot off the A380 from MEL early 2018.
QF Pax from MEL able to go via PER rather than DXB(still one stop) or go on one of 3 EK A380 services daily on a QF codeshare if going to Europe.
EK will take the QF 9 slot from MEL-DXB.

Very smart from QF as they will provide a greater feed on PER-LHR as the 787 will fly from MEL-PER anyway before doing the PER-LHR sector. They can fill seats from MEL and PER to London as a one and direct stop respectively.

Got to pay credit to Alan. QF were always going to fly PER-LHR. When PER airport didn't Donate the dollars, the WA government stepped in and gave $14 million in public funds.

The Australian article also says that the MEL-LAX 787 flights will allow them to retire the 747s faster.

The A380s free from MEL-DXB-LHR can replace the 747 on Asian routes to HKG or HND in order to retire more of the 747s.
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Old 14th Dec 2016, 06:20
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Originally Posted by BuzzBox
Nope. Pearce is only 16nm north of Perth and the forecasts for the two are invariably the same. If the forecast for Perth is rubbish then Pearce will also be rubbish and not suitable for planning as an alternate, even with Cat III. By the way, Perth is already being upgraded to Cat III.
If (biiiig if) PEA was also cat3 a reduced alt criteria may be available.

Never happen tho

Timing will be interesting, avoiding late night/early morning would avoid the fog issue and just leave the fickle winds and fast changes to deal with but invariably 30mins would be good for it. (For starters at least)
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