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QF Shares hit $1.00 Discuss

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Old 10th Jun 2012, 00:57
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It seems pretty straight forward to me.

Firstly, it is no use blaming Joyce for this. Clearly he has the support of the Board and was specifically selected to carry out their plan. That is why AJ got the job and not JB. Sure you need to be a certain type of person to be able to stand in front of the media and say the ****e he says, but nevertheless, that is what the Board is demanding.

To me it would seem the strategy is clear, and has been for around 10 years.
  • Start a second airline to protect the low end against Virgin and also create a second workforce that can be called on if needed industrially.
  • Slowly deconstruct mainline until such point as it is not viable by transferring flying to J*, then rebuild/rebrand J* in the image of mainline, but with a lower cost base.

This has been made more difficult than envisioned because the Company has been unable to convince anyone that International can't be profitable. By splitting the two divisions and reporting profits separately, there will be little or no resistance from shareholders to any dismantling of international.

Given they already have another international AOC, it is no problem to transfer international flying to that entity. And as we have witnessed at Virgin, it is possible to turn a no frills budget carrier into a full service airline in less than 2 years. It probably can't be done with Joyce at the helm, but that was probably never the plan. AJ's job is to preside over the destruction of the brand, as he has the perfect personality and business background for that, then the Board will bring in someone who is a bit softer and charismatic to rebuild from the ashes.

It would not surprise me either to see the domestic AOC expanded to include international ops, if that can be done. Just watch the domestic boys screw international if they are offered 787's!

Whilst I don't even work for QF and am genuinely sad to see the demise of a great airline, it seems that the Board has no choice than to shut down international and rebuild it with a lower cost base.

Before i get my head ripped off, i do not fully believe the spin about International losing so much money, but i do know for a fact that their cost base is substantially higher than its competitors (Particularly Virgin, which is the real comparison, not EK, EY or SQ). Therefore the Boards hands are rather tied in so far as they have to cut costs. Whether they needed to do it in the manner they have is open to conjecture, but it has to be done.

Unfortunately the days of making a reasonable profit are long gone, the board is required to make maximum profit for the shareholders. Whether this board can hang on long enough to implement their plan remains to be seen. The current share price must surely be well below any projections and I would think that pressure from institutional shareholders to replace Clifford and Joyce must be building.

Last edited by virginexcess; 10th Jun 2012 at 00:58.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 01:07
  #22 (permalink)  
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I posted this back in March on "Globalisation, debt and banking":-


Oh Oh, Emirates Air Tells Truth?

Talk about burying the lede!

Emirates, the biggest airline by international traffic, said more carriers will go bust this year as fuel costs and sluggish economies undermine profitability.

“We can reel off a whole load of airlines that are teetering on the brink or are really gone,” Tim Clark, the Dubai-based carrier’s president, said in an interview. “Roll this forward to Christmas, another eight or nine months, and we’re going to see this industry in serious trouble.”

No no no, not that lede. That's the one Bloomberg wanted you to pay attention to.

THIS lede:

“You think you’re going to win, but in the long term you always lose,” Clark said yesterday at the Gulf carrier’s head office near Dubai International Airport. “When we enter into derivatives, betting whatever it may be with counterparties who actually control the price of fuel in the first place, you have to ask yourself, ‘Is that smart?’”



Aha -- truth. You enter into derivatives with those who have a license to steal as even if they misrepresent what they're selling nobody will prosecute them and if not they simply manipulate the market after selling you the position!

Why would you take a bet on the price of something with a guy who has a corner on the market in question? You'd be nuts to do so and yet this is exactly the model these banksters have devised -- peddle to you the "necessity" of hedging and then screw you when you take their advice.

"Heads I win, tails you lose" -- what a great game for the banksters.

The shocker is that Bloomberg printed this.
 
Old 10th Jun 2012, 02:39
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There are a few elements at play here that need further discussion.

25% of QF profits used to come from the Pacific routes to the USA. Virgin chose wisely to compete on that route with the 777.

The Middle Eastern carriers are providing a great product to connect to Europe meaning Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong are no longer the "gateways".
They can offer 2 hour connections to the world without foreign crew bases.

Qantas has high staff related costs because of complex agreements/EBA's. Consider the pilot long haul document of some 750 pages to the VA one of about 20.

A distrust between management and staff because of the "cost cutting" mentality.

The good news and bad news:

Strategically, QF won't be able to profit from any routes to Europe in the near future - 10 years. In my opinion Europe is gone..... but not forever. Other carriers have the current geographic advantage. This will be resolved when aircraft are capable of flying from Sydney to London, Paris and Rome DIRECT. If Qantas can hold out to then, it will again have a "European network". The Kangeroo Route will be maintained at all costs until this occurs.

In the meantime, the international arm will have to focus on shorter point-to-point services. The company can expect fairly good outbound loads and fairly poor inbound loads due to high AUD. This will have to be mostly done by Jetstar with a lower cost base.

From a management perspective, current QF pilots would be considered a massive liability to the bottom line. The pay is just to high.. The government has not protected the thousands of manufacturing jobs that have gone offshore in the last 20 years to China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand etc. They will not have "save" Qantas jobs. However, in the national interest, they would like QF to maintain a "robust international presence". The best solution to this is to simply implement a A scale and B scale pay system and merge seniority lists with Jetstar.

The cost of fuel, airframes, advertising, marketing, management etc are basically fixed. QF has 3.3 Billion in cash to Hold out till the middle east has its day in the sun with Abu Dhabi and Dubai (much like Babylon) before it can fly right over the top of them in one go to Paris, London, Rome, from Sydney and again be a global aviation player. Expect a merger of Jetstar and Qantas at this time. There are more complex geopolitical and economic factors at play here and also national interest/foreign policy and strategic manoeuvring. Its a jungle out there!!!!

The share price will be in a doldrum for the next 10 years but will come good around the time of the 100th Anniversary and the remerging of the "great" brand. In the meantime, take a visit to the QF museum in Longreach and sleep easy at night knowing the Management are not stupid idiots and there are people in much higher places who are much smarter than you looking after your interests.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 03:06
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Management?

It would be great if QF had some management, Joyce isnt leading by example is he, every General Meeting its just about how the company should pay him more for driving the company backwards....
Time to wake up! Joyce and the board need to change and than means being accountable for the current condition of QF...
You want employees to change who do all the time but management keep feeding themselves like pigs...
Borgetti was the man and a leader Joyce isnt a leader and never will be, I dont know anyone who believes the constant crap that comes out of his mouth..
If QF fails it wont be the employees that didnt change its the over paid management
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 03:08
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Do you think Boeing and Airbus will build ultra long haul airframes whilst the middle eastern airlines are ordering record amounts of airframes? If there was a market for it you'd already see it.

The business pressure on 100 wide body orders at a time worth billions is not gong to subside unless western airlines put up greater orders and give the manufactures incentive.

The western airlines are generally more conservative and as such, the status quo will remain favoring 12-14 hour long haul airframes.

Unless of course there is a revolution in jet engine fuel burn and a replacement trippler can haul similar payloads carry current fuel loads further.

I could be proven wrong, but I doubt it. The next ten years will be based on alternative fuel sources.

As such Qantas need a new 8 hour hub strategy.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 03:21
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The company can expect fairly good outbound loads and fairly poor inbound loads due to high AUD.
What the hell are you talking about. Do you think Aussies that go overseas to spend their money don't come back? Subject to season variations inbound and outbound loads are the same.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 03:38
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If I were a betting man, I would expect British Airways is carefully looking at taking another large stake in Qantas.

In a worst case scenario, the foreign ownership laws would be reviewed long before Qantas "goes broke". Just how this can be engineered so Emirates/Etihad/Singapore don't get a look in will be fascinating to watch.

At 97c its very attractive.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 04:09
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Well Tony Sheldon has just taken a almighty spray to Joyce and Clifford for lining their pockets at the expense of QF (The Australian Sunday) so its on now, and many will be backing Sheldon.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 04:45
  #29 (permalink)  
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TWU boss Tony Sheldon calls for heads to roll at Qantas
by: JOE KELLY
From:The Australian
June 10, 201211:37AM

TRANSPORT Workers' Union boss Tony Sheldon has launched a stunning attack on Qantas, accusing its executives of lining their pockets at the expense of shareholders and calling on its leadership to quit.

Mr Sheldon also attacked the government for being too lax on Qantas, saying the carrier was able to use cheap flight attendants from Thailand at a rate of only $400 a month.

The attack comes as the airline's share price plumbed new lows, falling below $1 on Friday, and the shock announcement that pre-tax profits would be down 91 per cent from $552 million last year to between $50 million and $100m.

Mr Sheldon said that Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce and chairman Leigh Clifford "both have to go", claiming that 82.5 per cent of its employees believed they were taking the airline in the wrong direction.

He said the airline had "lost its way forward" and was damaging its brand for ideological reasons, referring to last year's decision by Qantas to ground its fleet in order to bring the rolling industrial action against it to a head.

Mr Sheldon said the government had to take action to ensure that Qantas could not take advantage of cheap foreign labour, warning it was against the national interest.

"This is a critical issue. Chris Bowen has to step in and turn around and enforce the Immigration Act," he said.

He said Fair Work Australia was prosecuting 8 separate cases of underpayments by Qantas, but that the Immigration Department needed to take action to defend the tourism industry.

"Defending the tourism industry, isn't just the operators like Qantas," he said. "It is the people who work in it. This country is built on a whole series of economic parameters and one of them is to give decent paying Australian jobs."
The Australian

He is probably correct. Clifford, Joyce and the present Board have proven beyond any reasonable doubt they are incapable of profitably operating the company or reversing current financial trends.

Qantas will not be nationalised and it would be political suicide for any Government to bail out or intervene in Qantas.

Any other public listed company that achieved a five fold reduction in share value and no dividend for three years and heads would have rolled long ago. I don't understand how QF Directors and executive not only survive, but are rewarded with pay increases and bonuses.

Change is now solely up to the share holders and specifically the largest institutional share holders who you may recall, blindly supported Joyce and his pay increase at the last AGM.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 05:46
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Tallest Poppy are you kidding, it is political suicide for the Govt to be faced with 36,000 suddenly unemployed people. They will be running around like headless chooks trying to fix it before that happens. 36,000 staff, plus all the contractors, tourism, travel agents, and assorted hangers on. It would make 89 look like a bakers picnic, and it was no picnic. Expect a car manufacturing leg up, anytime soon if it comes to that. And the public backlash, they might not fly it, but take it away and they will become ****faced, believe me. And the pollies will feel the heat, like you would not believe. Can you just imagine the media, and the shock jocks, and the outrage, and the pollies ducking for cover. Joyce will be back in Ireland with the poodles, just like that Mexican bloke from Telstra, and then start firing salvos safely from OS as to what a bunch of nutters we are. Never mind he has just stuffed our freckin National Carrier. Its not that easy.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 05:50
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There is no doubt something at government level needs to be done if Australia wants ANY sustainable Australian owned airline industry and Australian based jobs that go with it.

If you want to see the value of Australian owned international airlines, have a look at the recent Virgin split. VIAH has a total value of $2210. Yes $2210!! The Virgin split gave shareholders a dividend of $0.000001 per share. With an issued capital of 2,210,197,600 that is a total of $2210 to de-list VIAH from VAH.

That in itself tells you what the situation is.

There are a few things that could be done to "help" Australian airlines.

1. Loan guarantees. During the GFC, the Gov't guaranteed bank deposits to stop a run on our banks. Why not a similar scheme to allow airline capital restructuring (ie. new aircraft). Any airline could apply for loan guarantees to permit fleet upgrades. Has the benefit of reducing carbon emissions by use of more fuel efficient aircraft. For an airline like Qantas which is going to find funding new aircraft shortly impossible, it would give it a lifeline to restructure. It would also give the government leverage to force Qantas to keep jobs onshore.

2. International passenger levy. Apply a levy on all international passengers. A $20 levy inbound and outbound would raise about $300m per year. Use that $300m to insure the above loan guarantee scheme. Use it to support onshore maintenance industry.

Is a $40 total levy going to kill tourism? I don't think it would make a difference. Will doing nothing at government level kill the Australian aviation industry? Most definitely!
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 06:21
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"Pursuant to the ASX Listing Rules, an announcement was made to the ASX on 23 December 2011, advising that the Potential Level of Foreign Ownership at 23 November 2011 was 31%. Qantas is not required to further update the market unless the level of foreign ownership exceeds 44%. Qantas remains subject to an aggregate foreign ownership limit of 49%".

A foreign entity could take an 18 percent state in QF with a stake up to 13 percent available with no requirement to report. Not sure about amounts requiring "change in substantial holding notifications" of current shareholders.

Certainly, a large n opportunity exists for Australian Banks and Superannuation interests to buy the stock.

Geopolitically, IAG which owns British Airways and Iberia would be the best outcome if a foreign entity was take a large stake in the carrier.

Re: The best outcome for pilot pay. An A scale B scale system is not ideal, but the A scalers will do more damage if they had to take a pay cut to B scale wages. The unions would whinge at length, and the general "culture" of the A scalers is that it become their "right" not to accept inferior conditions or a backward step upon acceptance into the Airline.

There is some middle ground here - but it is messy, lengthy and there will be some "collateral damage" in any case. This MUST be accepted as as in manufacturing, jobs and whole companies went go offshore.

How many companies have been able to compete with cheap foreign labour in China. There are only a handful of Australian owned and manufactured companies i.e. RM williams boots.

The Government will not "protect" pilot wages, nor should they. Simulator, CBT training, Cadets and technology have changed the "worth" of the pilot, although the responsibility and shift work nature of the job demand above average wages.

This is a big issue because not many companies in Australia have a large number of employee's (over 1000) on over $200,000 a year. The union needs to be careful with its media tactics for two reasons:

1) There are many people in Australia who have already lost their jobs over sea's. THEY ARE NOT ON YOUR SIDE are will have little sympathy to you.

2) Pilots will be made to appear as overpaid bus drivers holding the economic future of the company to ransom with a little bit of media "massaging".

For all the posts that follow picking this "reality" to pieces financially, ethically, etc please read previous posts that factor in a 10 year time frame for the union vs the company antics. It will cost more than 100 million, but expect a MASSIVE advertising media campaign when its all over. That 3.3 Billion kitty will be raided, and the brand will survive and prosper.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 06:21
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There is a long way to go before the Rat is crippled. This is a viable business that needs restructuring in a big way but is far from extinct PROVIDED current Board and Execs are kicked out before it is too late.

Everyone knows change is coming, they just don't see any hope with |Joyce/Clifford and the only ones who did (those who shared the weed at the AGM) must surely now be asking why did we fall for it.

Rat is not a normal company and can resurrect itself with quality leadership and less consultants.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 06:23
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The The,

I almost almost almost like your idea, except for one problem.
They have already taxed the hell out of international tickets.

The other day a friend and I worked out the tax on a DPS-PER ticket, and it was 60% !!!

That leaves VERY VERY little for the airlines on that sector -- $70.00 to be exact. Somehow after the government takes all that tax and wastes it completely, the poor airlines who are the only reason the tax can exist have to try to find a profit !!!!

More tax is never the answer I am afraid.

Now if we reduced the existing tax, the airlines would be able to maintain the same ticket price and would earn the same amount on their bottom line, and at the same time government spending would become more efficient
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 07:12
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I wonder if Sheldon came out swinging in an effort to avert attention from a story in today's Sun-Herald about ramp staff - who would be members of the TWU - in Sydney (allegedly) accessing porn etc?

Qantas suspends 10 over porn
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 07:21
  #36 (permalink)  
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"it is political suicide for the Govt to be faced with 36,000 suddenly unemployed people."

Yes But that is not happening.

"They will be running around like headless chooks trying to fix it before that happens."

Yes Situation normal.

"36,000 staff, plus all the contractors, tourism, travel agents, and assorted hangers on. It would make 89 look like a bakers picnic,...."

Yes But can't happen.

I don't think you understand.

Qantas is not "going broke", not sacking 36,000 staff, not shutting up shop.

Qantas is forecasting a $50 mill to $100 mill profit this year and no dividend. It has or had around $3 Billion in reserves. It's shares are currently trading at a 50% discount.

Qantas is retracting as it loses international market share. It's greatest asset, it's Aussie staff are totally disengaged. It's management suffers delusions of JetStar grandeur. It is increasingly irrelevant both in Australia and certainly internationally.

Its incompetent management knows no better.

Qantas will never prosper as the profitable Spirit of Australia until competent, capable Australian men and women of wisdom and foresight again assume command.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 07:21
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Why is it people keep referring to Qf employee wages being so high.? Borghetti etc have publicly admitted that pilot/engineering wages r on par with Qf. Jq's conditions r equal as well. We will never hv Asian wages, we hv 10% of their population or less. We also don't hv Asian living conditions/standards. Qf employee costs are not out of kilter with other airlines in Australia. The killer is in-effficient, over paid management levels. That and a CEO/chairman/board paid way too much for destroying an airline. I will argue til I'm blue in the face that the staff at Qf are proud,passionate and hard working. Hell even engineering delays r at an all time low despite the turmoil of last year. Wholly due to engineering wanting to see this company last and thrive
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 07:26
  #38 (permalink)  
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What Service!!

As a business class passenger on an East/West flight last week I experienced the usual indifferent service that is often provided by the "matrons"that tend to bid for these flights.

Prior to takeoff (A330) galley gossip regarding the 5 hours that they would have to endure. Unfortunately this conversation was audible to most of the business class cabin.

Drinks service. Only almonds offerred although a choice was on board.

Meal service. Soup was the starter. No croutons offered, they were on board. No bread offered until I ask for it.

Staff need to take some ownership that they are part of the problem, not only the management.

Australian's are very good at blaming everyone else for problems. They really need to look at themselves at times.
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 07:38
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VC9,

You've hit the nail on the head.

A business is only ever successful with a point of difference. QF can't compete in a price war, which is what it is unsuccessfully attempting at the moment. The only way QF can maintain market position is to give customers what they want, and go back to what was their original long lasting and successful point of difference. The "Spirit of Australia"; - good service, Aussie flight attendants bringing them home from their overseas stint, a high safety record, etc, etc. That combined with the right aircraft would right now be keeping them going strong.

Joyce / Clifford / Dixon have been cutting the hell out of any opportunity or engagement for staff to want to provide that service. They've been damaging the morale levels to an extent that you really can't blame the flight attendants for having that attitude, as much as it disgusts me.

Having a price war against Emirates, Etihad, Singapore, even V Aus, they WON'T win!
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Old 10th Jun 2012, 07:38
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VC9, "there are no bad troops, only bad officers."

Given the appalling standard of what passes for managment at Qantas, I'm surprised you got any service at all.
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