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QF Shares hit $1.00 Discuss

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Old 24th Jun 2012, 13:25
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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A Shakespearean tragedy
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Old 24th Jun 2012, 14:38
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Agree with 600- I think Alan is lobbying for a change to the act to facilitate an Emirates deal of some kind. Think it is a bit early for panic about Q closing up shop.
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Old 24th Jun 2012, 19:02
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Looking at the big Qantas related rumor going around at the moment, regarding Emirates.

Joining the dot with Alan Joyce actively lobbying in parliament this week to remove the Qantas Sale Act foreign ownership restrictions.

Putting the 2 together, I wouldn't be suprised if a deal were done, contingent on the law being changed.
I don't think it's going to make a difference as far as selling of a slice of Qantas.

Emirates president Tim Clark says that his carrier has reached out to Qantas and would like the two carriers to work together, but has denied that the Dubai based carrier is looking to take a stake in the Flying Kangaroo.

Speaking to journalists at the sidelines of the IATA AGM in Beijing, Mr Clark confirmed that Emirates had made an initial approach to Qantas seeking a codeshare arrangement to strengthen its network in the Oceania region, but he ruled out an equity alliance.
A code share yes.
Qantas is only about 34% foreign owned so if Emirates wanted to invest it could now without the laws changing. If it was a good price at a buck and loose change they would of already bought A chunk of it.

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Old 24th Jun 2012, 20:29
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Do you really think if Emirates rides in with their chequebook that everything will carry on as is at QF?

The Brand might remain, or it might be rebranded as Emirates, but I am sure there would be changes felt at the top, and in your hip pockets.
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Old 24th Jun 2012, 20:45
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Originally Posted by Capt SNAFU
8 routes? I think it is a few more. Not many. Do you know something we don't?
The number doesn't really matter, be it 8 or 13 or 21, the point is that Qantas (not Jetstar or Qantaslink but Qantas International non codeshare flights) have cut back on routes significantly and that means that the overhead burden must be shared across fewer routes so unless their passengers are happy to go via London or Frankfurt when they really want to go to Zurich, Rome or Paris, then passengers will be lost to airlines who offer what the customer actually wants which in turn means that fewer customers must pay ticket prices that support the whole infrastructure and where the cost of that infrastructure doesn't come down on a per passenger basis then you're in a classic margin squeeze.

If you follow Arnold's advice and put prices up then people are even less likely to accept the roundabout route and will migrate to other, more direct, carriers which in turn will also mean less tickets to cover your overheads with which in turn will mean that where you thought adding $450M to the price of your tickets sold last year would get you to break even you find that you sell less tickets so you need to add $600M or somesuch and then you find even more people leave to the competition and so on. Sooner or later the point becomes really obvious that you can't keep putting up prices and hoping fewer customers will pay so much more that you make a profit. With businesses such as airlines that have quite massive fixed costs you must have economies of scale to spread those costs over or you will simply run out of cash.

Telco's are the same, if not worse. The cost of an individual phone call to a telco company is bugger all, the marginal cost of a new customer on an existing network is pretty close to zero. But the cost of the first customer is billions as you need the network to support them. Similarly for airlines right down to the individual flight level, the first passenger through the door costs a fortune, every passenger after that costs a few bucks extra in fuel and food. That's largely why the whole "just put prices up" theory doesn't wash - you lose too many customers to the competition to cover the increase in ticket prices.
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Old 24th Jun 2012, 20:47
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Originally Posted by ArnieE
NO genius, the question comes down to...... do you want to lose money or make money,,, chee
Thanks for recognising my genius level of intelligence Arnie, it's so rare to get a compliment on an anonymous forum these days!

Anyhow, would you care to expand on how you intend to make money by putting prices up? Perhaps a return to old style pricing where it cost about a year's average wage to fly to London? That looks nice, but what do you think would happen?
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Old 24th Jun 2012, 22:34
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Fella's there is one problem. You still have to get all this past the govt. and the people. I know you think I rabbit on about the national carrier, but no govt. wants QF to basically cark it on their watch, and watch the people come out of their slumber if they think there is any change of QF going to or being part of the Arab world. They will not accept it, and Joyce knows that. So does the govt. This is incredibly sensitive, and they are more likely to combine QF and JQ leaving the Roo visible, which the public will accept, if done slowly and the Govt. decides to ignore it , as both airlines are Australian, and the public sees JQ as a offshoot of QF anyway. That was the plan from day one, and the Arab connection is fraught with difficulties, especially for the govt. of the day. Pressure will be put on Joyce by the govt. for a acceptable decision one way or another, as Australians expect their National Carrier to be visible and uniquely Australian, and will not accept anything else.
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Old 24th Jun 2012, 23:06
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Joyce is busy positioning himself to hold the govt to ransom for a second time. His hand will be all the jobs in International and whatever emotional stock the politicians perceive the nation has in the notions of "national icon" and "national carrier" and public pride.

When and how are the only 2 variables.

Can the govt negotiate anything better than jobs elsewhere in the JQ franchise?

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Old 24th Jun 2012, 23:28
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A code share yes.
Qantas is only about 34% foreign owned so if Emirates wanted to invest it could now without the laws changing. If it was a good price at a buck and loose change they would of already bought A chunk of it.
I don't think EK are interested in QF International nor Jetstar. They are only interested in QF domestic to feed EK. They don't want to buy into the current whole group.

However, I believe the QF Int/Dom split has a way to go with the goal being to have QF Dom listed as a separate entity on the stock exchange that can then be 100% foreign owned. This is why they are lobbying Canberra, to enable a structure like Virgin. They will then do like Virgin and encourage foreign investment into the domestic business with no cap.

The other place to watch is China. There are rumours about China Eastern being in the mix. Strong business (mining) ties already between Australia and China with Chinese tourism being forecast to be the next boom. A Chinese carrier could be interested in both QF Domestic and also Jetstar with its Asian presence. This could mean a separate listing with QF Dom and Jetstar being spun off together under a new entity.

The only reason the current management are keeping their jobs is surely because of something big in the very near future. I believe it must be something to do with an equity tie up with EK or MU. Shareholders would not be putting up with the current management based on performance unless they are in for something soon, and that must be equity.

Either way, QF Int will likely disappear or become a small niche operation flying only Aus to US.

That's my theory.
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Old 25th Jun 2012, 02:36
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At least one Aussie company is making Qantas look good.
Billabong (BBG) from $17 to under $1 today.
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Old 25th Jun 2012, 07:15
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Well if the plan is to hold the government to ransom again, then this could get interesting because there are many who did not like it the first time and who have long memories.Surely not even AJ is that stupid, but given what has happened to date who knows, because the only certainty is Exec bonuses.

Bring it on, because we are a bit light on entertainment at the moment.

Last edited by ohallen; 25th Jun 2012 at 07:15.
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Old 25th Jun 2012, 07:54
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Interesting comparison

Perpetual slashes executive pay - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Perpetual will slash executive pay after profit slump. Someone setting a good example. From the ABC

Perpetual slashes executive pay

Fund manager Perpetual has slashed its executives' pay as it prepares shareholders for a slump in profits.
From July this year, the almost $500,000 pay cheque for Perpetual's chairman will be cut by 42 per cent, while the average pay for non-executive directors will be cut by 25 per cent.
Vas Kolesnikoff from the Shareholders' Association says it is an unprecedented move, made under pressure from disgruntled investors.
"Perpetual has been shrinking, Perpetual's stock price was $83. It's now in the low twenties. Its earnings have gone from the hundreds of millions down to $20 million," he said.
The pay cuts are part of the company's restructure, which also involves cutting about 300 jobs.
The fund manager has warned shareholders its full-year net profit will slump to as low as $22 million, which is less than a third of last year's $62 million profit.
The Shareholders' Association hopes more companies will follow the example set by Perpetual and slash the pay of its executives.
Mr Kolesnikoff says there are many more companies that need to slash executive pay.
"Companies such as Fairfax, where shareholder wealth has fallen by 90 per cent and executive and board remuneration has increased, need to be looking at themselves," he said.
"And other companies, including Qantas, etcetera - where the directors and the executives are firing employees but somehow they seem to be unaccountable and they seem to be untouched."

Last edited by ampclamp; 25th Jun 2012 at 08:06.
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Old 25th Jun 2012, 10:41
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Rumour Machine par excellance

Has anyone heard rumours of QF seeking bids from a number of large (repeat LARGE) construction firms for price submissions on the construction ot a LARGE maintenance hangar at SYD which will be required to accommodate/service four (4) A380 type A/C???

Who has the cheque book?

VB
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Old 25th Jun 2012, 14:24
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Probably something to do with this

http://www.sydneyairport.com.au/~/me...FACT_SHEET.pdf

The hangars are getting moved down the road per that plan..
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Old 26th Jun 2012, 02:46
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In the mean time, while the share price plummets and cost cutting is meant to be happening, some one in their infinite wisdom has decided to create 3 of these jobs for MEL, SYD and BNE plus 3 advisors for same:

From the QF intranet:

Performance Support Manager

Description


Executive Job Grade Level 5L
Newly created role; lead from the front!
This is a rare opportunity to join our newly created team that will help drive us towards our 2020 vision and operating model.

Your new role as Manager Performance Support will see you deliver high level efficient and consistent case management advice and support to line managers in the areas of formal investigations, performance management, grievance handling and the management of long term ill and Injured Workers.

Working closely with line managers, the performance support team and the IR/EEO team you will to ensure an integrated, collaborative approach to case management and inform appropriate business partners of reports or investigations which may constitute a potential risk to the business (i.e. media exposure, brand damage or claims against the company). You may also be responsible for managing a team of Advisers Performance Support.

Comprehensive training will be provided to support the newly formed team.

Your core duties will include:
Delivery high quality advice, coaching and support to line managers in the areas of formal investigations, performance management, grievance handling and the management of ill and Injured workers which ensures procedural fairness, meets legislative compliance and minimises business risks
Actively facilitating the repositioning of performance support within the People Services environment through continuously expanding business specific knowledge and engaging with line managers to understand their needs
Review existing business practices to align processes and outcomes and drive consistency
Engage specialist/providers as required in consultation with the Manager People Performance
Maintain oversight of quality of service provided by external providers
Managing complaints, investigations and outcomes consistent with Qantas policy, legislative obligations and business objectives. Inform appropriate SME's, business leaders and line HR of reports or investigation which may constitute a potential risk to the business, i.e. media exposure or brand damage
Coaching and mentoring of the Advisers Performance Support and Tier II People Connect team to build knowledge and capability in managing people issues
Minimising financial exposure by providing expert advice to line managers on case management and resolution
Maintaining industry knowledge through peer visits, participation in conferences etc, in order to strengthen technical EEO and IR knowledge
To be successful in this role you will possess:
Tertiary qualifications in Human Resources or equivalent field
Proven experience in managing grievances and workplace investigations cases across a diverse range of issues relating to issues with a track record of success
A strong work ethos with a practical mindset and pragmatic HR approach to drive solutions that will help support the Qantas Group
Excellent relationship management skills with the ability to influence stakeholders at all levels of the organisation as well as the ability to negotiate and coach
Sound written and verbal communication skills and the ability to maintain documented audit trails, advice and investigations as well as showing meticulous attention to detail
Strong analytical and problem solving skills with the ability to apply them in the management of disciplinary and grievance matters
Sound judgement and the ability to maintain appropriate confidentiality & discretion
Previous leadership and people management experience

An easy 2Mill+ on the bottom line.............

Now, can somebody tell me what the "2020 vision" is? (Or is it a really clever pun?) and what these people would actually be doing?
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Old 26th Jun 2012, 05:26
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Flight of Qantas fancy: Crikey

Flight of Qantas fancy: Crikey



Crikey
Despite his Irish heritage, Alan Joyce is the consummate Australian businessman. No one better personifies the current tendency of many of our most prominent to blame all their problems on others – their employees, the government, their customers, evil foreigners – and to demand that governments do something about it.
The latest lesson from the Alan Joyce school of managerial excellence emerges today with Fairfax reports about Qantas lobbying parliamentarians to block Etihad's investment in its rival Virgin, on the grounds that a cashed-up Virgin could, well... compete more effectively with Qantas.
According to the Fairfax report, Qantas is warning it could be forced to shut down. Yes, shut down – Qantas expects to make $600 million from its domestic operations this year, up $50 million on the previous year. Virgin's entire half-year profit to December was $96 million.
At least the "shut down" threat is a variant on the traditional Qantas threat that if anyone was allowed to compete with it, it would be forced to close unprofitable regional routes, a claim that invariably alarmed rural and regional MPs and that underpinned years of aviation protectionism run by the federal Department of Transport, whose bureaucrats enjoyed multiple junkets a year (via the pointy end of the plane) to negotiate aviation rights that fiercely protected Australian consumers from the benefits of competition.
What's happened over time is that competition has – in the funny way it tends to – exposed Qantas' management, in the same way former monopolies invariably struggle to adjust to life after gouging. And, in particular, that of Alan Joyce. The Qantas share price now carries a substantial Joyce discount. This is the performance of Qantas shares since Joyce came on board (sorry) in November 2008, compared to the ASX 200, from the ASX site.
Under Joyce, Qantas began seriously underperforming in the market in late 2010 and the gap has only widened, albeit slowly, since then. Joyce's main reaction was to declare war on his workforce, blame the Fair Work Act and promise grand offshore ventures that came to nought. Now, it appears, he has fallen back on the Qantas tradition of demanding protection from competition, at the direct expense of Australian consumers.
It's the sign of a chief executive and management team apparently bereft of ideas about how to respond to competitors, some of whom, yes, are government subsidised, but others of whom, like Virgin, have simply exploited Qantas's own ineptitude.
This story first appeared on www.crikey.com.au on June 22. Republished with permission.
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Old 26th Jun 2012, 08:41
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If you let a Leprachaun run an airline, don't be surprised if you get Leprosy....and things start falling off!!
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Old 26th Jun 2012, 10:07
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Shorthaul cabin crew on secondment to the A380 are rumoured to all be going back to domestic flying en masse and soon.
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Old 26th Jun 2012, 10:37
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handling and the management of long term ill and Injured Workers.
Woolcott, I think this part of the PD is referring to the mental illness and brain injuries the most of the senior group are sufferring from and hence require assistance.

Last edited by gobbledock; 26th Jun 2012 at 10:38.
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Old 26th Jun 2012, 12:26
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People on the net asking about Travel insurance to avoid Qantas Collapse. Just shows the AJ panic act is even seen by consumers as being real


http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum....cfm?t=1939667
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