PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Merged: Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?
Old 3rd Aug 2009, 11:35
  #46 (permalink)  
Chimbu chuckles

Grandpa Aerotart
 
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Is unemployment, generally speaking, improving or getting worse?

What other international fundamentals have shown significant improvement?

I cant think of one - and no the stock markets are not fundamentals.

Don't mistake sentiment driven by stock market fear and greed, fear of missing a rally, and faux company profits based on creative accounting and govt bailouts as a sustainable recovery.

The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on massive govt stimulus - that cannot last a whole lot longer. The US economy is broken - next shoe to drop will be cubic losses in commercial real estate - shopping malls, factories etc. Why is that an issue? Think the retirement portfolios of 10s of millions of Americans. The Japanese economy is similarly reeling - how much longer before Australia follows around the S bend? Don't know but it can't be much longer....6 months maybe?

Then watch the govts stimulus run out of steam - watch the first home buyers grants bite all concerned on the arse big time.

Personally the loads I have been flying internationally have been excellent - came out of the ME the other night right on MZFW - 206 pax. I think this is due to 2 things,

1/. Most people have not lost their jobs yet and think the worst is over - so think they wont.

2/. Discounting by airlines.

I don't think that situation will necessarily hold up indefinitely. The world wide de-leveraging has a way to go yet.
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