Erebus 25 years on

[compressor stall]

I was looking up some holiday snaps and just happened across this in my photo library. I'd forgotten about it, probably nothing relevant.

[3 Holer]

I am tired of these statements that have nothing to do with Capt Collins and Flt901

I actually thought we were debating Justice Peter Mahon's findings of organisational dysfunction in Air New Zealand's Antarctic operation. Once established that Mahon got it 100% correct, the debate drifted into whether Captain Collins and his crew should share the blame for this organisational dysfunction and Air New Zealand's poor administrative errors re: Antarctic sightseeing operations.
There has been some excellent discussion during this debate with reference to polar flying and some of the challenges related to such flying. Unfortunately, Justice Peter Mahon did not have this information when conducting his Inquiry. He relied entirely on impartial investigative procedures, detailed collation of testimony and he delivered his findings with integrity and honesty.

Each of Justice Mahon’s opinions is sculpted by two primary forces: logic, and insightful analysis of the human condition. Every conclusion has at its base facts brought in evidence, but is moulded by Mahon’s direct, no-holds-barred assessment of the motivations of the storytellers.

Justice Peter Mahon has been acknowledged by ICAO and the Privy Council for his “brilliant and painstaking investigative work done” during the Royal Commission of Inquiry. He has, posthumously, been apologised to by both Air New Zealand and the New Zealand government and has been applauded by experts in the field for his contribution to Human Factors during his Royal Commission of Inquiry.

I have nothing more to add.

Enjoy your return to real life Papa Hotel6 and maybe something really relevant may turn up for you one day prospector. I leave you both with an old Indian Proverb:

Hindsight wisdom is of no use.

[Hempy]

I'm still trying to work out what relevance of McMurdo METARs have to the conditions north of Ross Island. It's not like having a mountain (that wouldn't be out of place in the Swiss Alps) in between the reporting station and Lewis Bay would make any difference to the wx, surely

Originally Posted by 3 Holer

I have nothing more to add.

I call bs

p.s megan, no happy snaps similar to compressor stalls to share with us?

[megan]

I'm still trying to work out what relevance of McMurdo METARs have to the conditions north of Ross Island

You have absolutely no imagination. We have heard nothing but the fact that all the previous flights had gin clear VMC. prospector has always claimed that was the case. Do the METARs not suggest the possibility of something else? As a witness said, aircraft were observed flying in and out of cloud though they were reporting VMC. The controllers said the aircraft always made the descent avoiding any areas of inclement weather.

I am still awaiting what the definition of REAL VMC are

Likewise.

[Hempy]

What exactly are you waiting for? It's already been stated that they required 20km horizontal vis to descend below the MSA. Yet they hit a mountain. And didn't make a move until they heard 'whoop whoop, pull up".

Sounds like a peachy SKC day to me...

Like PH, I've had enough of this thread as well. I'll leave with this comment. There is no way, come hell or high water, that I'd ever fly with a pilot who believes that the crew that day had no bearing on the eventual devastating outcome of that flight. ICAO mandate certain responsibilities to the PIC, including the well being of everyone on board. The aircraft was perfectly servicable, so to claim the crew had no bearing on what happened is, imho, a position that no truly professional pilot, having read the reports, could ever take.

[Fantome]

Yes I freely admit to that, I have never been in Court, I actually spent my working life in the sharp end of an aeroplane, there you have to contend with the law of physics, no appeal court if you get it wrong, but must admit living a life without having to resort to lawyers at any time has been a bonus. Probably because after forty years flying I have never hurt any Pax, or been caught breaking any rules or regulations.

or been caught breaking any rules or regulations.

the very idea of being caught or being found out presupposes a lifetime of
getting away with it time after time .. . . which of course Captain Prospector cannot possibly mean to imply in the context of a wholly blameless faultless career at the sharp end of his aeroplane. There is I think the slight whiff of the sanctimonious which with a maybe not dissimilar career path I feel justified to say as those of us who have worked and flown with a wide cross section of airmen and women with any perspicacity must have retained some insights into differing personalities . their quirks and their foibles . . . I know I could write a book on the subject but it would be a dry old thing… apart from from a few shocking revelations.
It would have to include the cynical man-of the-world chief pilot who used to congratulate the gainer of a command for the first time with the words -
"we have three golden rules in this company . . .. DON'T CRASH that is first . . .and DON'T CRASH …. that is second so you never forget . . . and thirdly DON'T BE FOUND OUT. "

[compressor stall]

Sounds like a peachy SKC day to me...

Was that a requirement?

Hempy, Is it IMC or VMC under that cloud layer on the right of my shot above? What do you think the visibility is?

It looks like I say it again, Hempy, as you clearly didn't seem to understand it on the last page. They were almost certainly VMC when the hit the hill. They could easily see features 13 miles away, which if my maths is correct easily exceeds 20km visibility.

Trying to pin the blame on descent to 1500 feet is a distraction. They would have likely hit the mountain at 6000 on the same track.

That whiteout under the cloud (and it's not a great whiteout for that matter as there are a couple of dark features giving it away, things not visible on the aircraft track) extends from 0 to an altitude of about 8-9000'. And I'll answer the visibility question for you. The snow surface under that cloud is 50km+ away with nothing reducing the visibility between camera and snow.

[3 Holer]

I call bs

Go to the top of the class Hempy.

I forgot to add. The families of the victims and crew also received an apology from Air New Zealand and the New Zealand government.

Congratulations compressor stall and megan, I think you may have convinced them, in as they are all leaving.

[compressor stall]

It was not my intention to enter this debate to sway anyone either way. Many protagonists in this thread and its predecessors will never be swayed.

My intention is simply to correct facts in arguments. Staunch judgements based on erroneous facts are like a red rag to a bull to me. I can't let the claims that they were not VMC at 1500' go unchallenged.

Through experience, I know a something about flying in the area. If using this first hand knowledge and experience shows flaws in people’s arguments, subsequently causing them to pack up and go home, so be it, but seeing them leave is not what I set out to do.

[ampan]

My initial thought was that megan, 3-holer and Compressor Stall were acquaintances, blowing smoke up eachother's backsides. But now I believe them to be one and the same person, like the three faces of Eve (hence, perhaps, the sobriquets of "megan" and "3-holer"?) doing a 'good cop / bad cop' routine. megan and 3-holer are bad cops, while compressor stall is supposed to be the independent voice of reason. Problem is that once your get through the pathetic hand-wringing and irrelevant blabbering, you're left with the suggestion that Captain Collins not only believed he was entitled to fly visually below the cloud layer but also that he was actually doing so - ie, that he could see the terrain before hitting it. If that's the ridiculous contention from the Unholy Trinity, then say they/he/she should say so directly.

[megan]

blowing smoke up eachother's backsides

Like yourself and prospector you mean? ampan, you sir, are an absolute idiot. I don't know compressor stall from a bar of soap, nor 3 holer for that matter. I do know who compressor stall worked for in Antarctica and what particular aircraft he flew ie its registration. For all I know he may still work there, and I could find out if I so desired.

once your get through the pathetic hand-wringing and irrelevant blabbering

Well, for once you're correct. I refer to your and prospectors continual denigration of Captain Collins, at times using language not befitting polite company. Both of you remind me of Peter Garrisons quote, "Again and again, pilots are found to show little sympathy for their colleagues who are hurt or die, some simplifying explanation is immediately hit upon to reassure the others that the same fate will not be theirs".

you're left with the suggestion that Captain Collins not only believed he was entitled to fly visually below the cloud layer but also that he was actually doing so

You're quite right, he did, and given the METARS for all the previous flights, the suggestion is that they did as well.

[compressor stall]

Ampan, So when presented (again) with facts, photographs and legislation, you claim a three way conspiracy theory? Now that's paranoia.

Relax, you can remove your tin hat. Within 30 seconds of searching in pprune, you will quickly determine that I have nothing in common with Megan and 3-holer. I've been posting on here for 18 years (my previous history was lost in the server crash of 2000) and have no other alias.

In fact I didn't even know Megan had been in the Antarctic until his post in the last days. Based on his posts and process of elimination I can guess what he flew there and roughly when. And a perfunctory search reveals 3-holer was flying jets before I had a PPL. With them, I have had no correspondence, email, PM or anything. Period.

Now, a quick point about basic logic and discussion. Because I have clearly shown that Collins was likely to be VMC until (imminently before) impact it is non sequitur that my position is that Collins was without blame.

As you and others repeatedly try link the two statements this does appear to be a desperate attempt to obfuscate my VMC clarification. Probably as there has yet to be a coherent, factual rebuttal.

[PapaHotel6]

Ye Gods. Maybe my faith in aviation integrity is not so restored after all. Well, I managed to stay away 2 days.....

compressor stall wrote:

They were almost certainly VMC when the hit the hill.

No. They weren't. Because they hit the hill. The question is, did they think they were VMC? Well that would depend on Vette's theory of them "seeing" a convincing false horizon (horizon visibility is one of the requirements for VMC as I recall) being correct.

Also were they VMC at 2000'? If so, why descend to 1500'?

And VMC all the way down from 16000' to 2000'? In spite of cloud everywhere, sufficient to block Erebus from 13000' down, and Mulgrew's comment "I can't see very much at the moment"? Yes, it's possible that VFR requirements were met the entire time during the descent. But I don't believe it's likely.

Trying to pin the blame on descent to 1500 feet is a distraction. They would have likely hit the mountain at 6000 on the same track.

Um - no. Firstly, speculation about what might or might not have happened at another altitude below MSA is irrelevant. Secondly, with every foot one drops below MSA, the chance of colliding with terrain increases. There is one hell of a lot of Ross Island that is higher than 1500', and slightly less that is higher than 2000' etc. etc.

Through experience, I know a something about flying in the area. If using this first hand knowledge and experience shows flaws in people’s arguments, subsequently causing them to pack up and go home, so be it, but seeing them leave is not what I set out to do

People are leaving because of bad behaviour, not because of flaws in arguments. For example I don't even read 3-Holer's posts anymore; he's barely made an argument or responded to a question in any of his (many) posts and saying things like "we established Mahon was 100% correct" is immature at best, pernicious at worst.

As I said on the previous page, I think the argument that Collins could reasonably have been expected to have made better decisions was won some time ago. Much of what we seem to be doing now is playing with semantics and where there is actual collegial debate (getting rare) it is more towards establishing relative degrees of blame which is something I personally have no interest in doing.

[compressor stall]

Here we go again. It's like teaching my Isa Browns algebra.

If you take off on a clear night out over the water. SKC. You look down and ahead and see nothing. Are you suddenly now IMC?

Yes, less of the mountain is at 6000 than 1500. No argument there. All other things being equal, the impact at 6000' would have been about one minute flying time further south. There would have been few if any extra clues to stop them. The MSA is another 10000' above, which is where they should have been.

[PapaHotel6]

The MSA is another 10000' above, which is where they should have been

Yep.

At least until south of Mt Erebus, where the MSA became 6000'. And if you're going to violate said MSA in a mountainous region because you believe it's bollocks, or company pressure, or normalisation of deviance or whatever; perhaps you might like to consider identifying said mountains first, or plotting your position off the INS onto a map.

And maybe when your flight Engineer asks "where's Erebus in relation to us/thinking of high ground in the area" followed by "I don't like this", consider weighing up everything you've done and whether you've made good decisions.

And so on and so on - putting aside for the moment the likelihood or otherwise of him being VMC all the way from 16000' to 1500'.

[Fantome]

"Again and again, pilots are found to show little sympathy for their colleagues who are hurt or die, some simplifying explanation is immediately hit upon to reassure the others that the same fate will not be theirs".

At his best Peter Garrison has that palpable ring of truth that great writer/airmen such as Saint-Exupéry , Ernest K Gann and CA Lindbergh manifested in spades. Saint-Ex served a tough apprenticeship learning the ins and outs of the Aeropostal routes from Toulouse across the Pyrenees over Spain and across to Africa. His mentor Henri Guillaumet told him of the hazards awaiting him in Spain. One being -

“But you want to remember that below the sea of clouds lies eternity.”
― Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, Wind, Sand and Stars


(there is full page of brilliant quotes from 'Wind Sand and Stars '

https://www.goodreads.com/work/quote...rre-des-hommes)

[3 Holer]

Captain Collins not only believed he was entitled to fly visually below the cloud layer but also that he was actually doing so - ie, that he could see the terrain before hitting it.

ampan, most of your posts are so cryptic I am yet to decide if you are indeed a pilot, so you’ll excuse me if I don’t always take you seriously.

No. They weren't. Because they hit the hill.

PapaHotel6,I am convinced you are an academic and attempting to write a thesis on the Erebus crash. It’s been done already (twice) so I wouldn’t waste your time.

I going for a cup of coffee! Please call me when we get back to serious debate.

[prospector]

We have heard nothing but the fact that all the previous flights had gin clear VMC. prospector has always claimed that was the case.

Not so, I have only stated that Ross Island and Mt Erebus were sighted, and exact position known, before any descent was made below MSA.

The MSA is another 10000' above, which is where they should have been.

FL160, until within 20DME of the TACAN, was one of the requirements, would appear to be a clear enough, and should not have been difficult

Without having to post the requirements again that is specifically what the company required, the only descent procedure approved was, as has been posted many times, to avoid Mt Erebus.

I refer to your and prospectors continual denigration of Captain Collins, at times using language not befitting polite company.

Not denigration, the fact that he flew a perfectly serviceable aeroplane into a mountain that he knew was there, by totally ignoring company written orders specifically to ensure that the flight remained clear of Mt Erebus, after a career of many years without incident, including RNZAF training, is extremely puzzling.

The language part is not worth commenting on.

you sir, are an absolute idiot.

Is not called for.

Because I have clearly shown that Collins was likely to be VMC until (imminently before) impact it is non sequitur that my position is that Collins

was without blame.

I do not think you have shown that at all, and it really is not relevant, he should not have been down there, or do you believe the Company orders, that were made because it was known that these crews had no AntArctic experience, were to be totally ignored? not one of the requirements was met, even if one was complied with the disaster would not have happened.

If my memory serves me right you posted a photo way back that showed Ross Island and Mt Erebus, as they look with no, or very little cloud cover, to do a VMC descent under those conditions would be no problem.

[compressor stall]

If VMC at impact is not relevant, why do you and others repeatedly say he wasn't VMC when he hit the hill?

My point is you can't hang Collins on being IMC at impact.

P.S. Reference your last, may I amend my previous statement for clarity of intent....

"Because I have clearly shown that Collins had established himself in VMC until (imminently before) impact it is non sequitur that my position is that Collins was without blame".

he should not have been down there

Exactly. A point I have made to you and others during my sporadic attention to this thread and its predecessors over the past 7 or so years.

[prospector]

My point is you can't hang Collins on being IMC at impact.

No, but are you completely ignoring the written company requirements for descent? There is no doubt they were well aware of these, a copy was recovered from the wreckage of the cockpit.

This from John King publication, which I believe covers the situation very well

After being cleared for descent to FL180, "He levelled out at that altitude and a few minutes later, knowing from McMurdo that the weather was well below the minima required for the company approved let down procedure and so he would have to improvise his own, he saw a break in the clouds which extended to sea level. Collins stated his intention to circle to get below cloud"

Does anybody really think that to improvise your own let down procedure, never having been to the area before, and being a captain with a lot of experience think he would not have heard of white out phenomenon, and knowing from the weather report that Ross Island was completely cloud covered, it was a prudent move?

Exactly. A point I have made to you and others during my sporadic attention to this thread and its predecessors over the past 7 or so years.

That is the point that has been debated for many posts, many think it was acceptable he was down there, and it could be explained by " Normalisation of Deviation" and many other weird theories.