REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

[C441]

What's Rex charging Carlton supporters to get to Brisbane this weekend?
…..and Brisbane supporters to get to Melbourne for the Granny the week after? :ok:

[Deano969]

Someone told me this week the next 737 will be named after John Sharp including the rego?

Please tell me that was just a joke?
Some one tod me REX wants to offload up to 30 SAABs and is looking to Q400s firstly for NJE and they will do some REX fill in flying and then as a SAAB replacement especially where QF are on the same routes and there is no security screening

[PoppaJo]

What's Rex charging Carlton supporters to get to Brisbane this weekend?
…..and Brisbane supporters to get to Melbourne for the Granny the week after? :ok:
I think Blues fans will fork out $1300 return.

Once in a generation event for those fans.

[Ladloy]

Some one tod me REX wants to offload up to 30 SAABs and is looking to Q400s firstly for NJE and they will do some REX fill in flying and then as a SAAB replacement especially where QF are on the same routes and there is no security screening
Selling 30 saabs wont even offset their 30m loss. Whos paying for the q400s?

[Wizofoz]

Someone told me this week the next 737 will be named after John Sharp including the rego?

Please tell me that was just a joke?
Well, the last one was regoed 8KH...

[MickG0105]

Someone told me this week the next 737 will be named after John Sharp including the rego?

Please tell me that was just a joke?
I can only get that to work by using a mathematical symbol; VH-B2√

What's Rex charging Carlton supporters to get to Brisbane this weekend?
…..and Brisbane supporters to get to Melbourne for the Granny the week after?
Looks like Rex have put on all of one extra MEL-BNE return flight on the Friday and one extra BNE-MEL return on the Sunday for next weekend.

[Global Aviator]

Not that easy putting on extra flights short notice when you have a limited fleet size and availability.

Has Bonza put on Sunny Coast to Melb?

A great opportunity to cash in but ya gotta have the availability and protect your current schedule.

[43Inches]

Looks like Rex have put on all of one extra MEL-BNE return flight on the Friday and one extra BNE-MEL return on the Sunday for next weekend.

Not sure how an airline suddenly 'puts on' an extra flight at two weeks notice, when they have only a few planes and fixed rosters for staff. Maybe Sharpie will fly it himself.

Some one tod me REX wants to offload up to 30 SAABs and is looking to Q400s firstly for NJE and they will do some REX fill in flying and then as a SAAB replacement especially where QF are on the same routes and there is no security screening

Is it the same person telling you Rex is getting 777s? A few more Q400s for NJE sounds plausible, replacing the rest of the SAAB fleet with Q400s, a fairy tale of epic proportions... decent used Q400s are in the region of $10 USD-$20 USD million a piece, and leasing them will reflect that. Given a SAAB 340 is probably worth less than a million USD for a good one it's not going to be a good swap rate for something that only carries double the SAAB at much greater cost factor. It would make more economic sense for Rex to buy/lease new ATRs than go used Q400s, but even that will involve a lot of capital.

[Deano969]

Not sure how an airline suddenly 'puts on' an extra flight at two weeks notice, when they have only a few planes and fixed rosters for staff. Maybe Sharpie will fly it himself.



Is it the same person telling you Rex is getting 777s? A few more Q400s for NJE sounds plausible, replacing the rest of the SAAB fleet with Q400s, a fairy tale of epic proportions... decent used Q400s are in the region of $10 USD-$20 USD million a piece, and leasing them will reflect that. Given a SAAB 340 is probably worth less than a million USD for a good one it's not going to be a good swap rate for something that only carries double the SAAB at much greater cost factor. It would make more economic sense for Rex to buy/lease new ATRs than go used Q400s, but even that will involve a lot of capital.
They won't be getting ATRs...
They won't be getting new birds
The Q400s will help standardise the fleet and REX will only buy 10-20 year old frames

Make no mistake ZL and VA are both in talks with QR, but QR still believe they will get extra flights and the SYD-CBR tag is still a viable option
That said VA is the preferred option although ZL is both cheaper and has more growth potential domestically and a larger potential ROI

[markis10]

The Q400s will help standardise the fleet and REX will only buy 10-20 year old frames
……SYD-CBR tag is still a viable option

Q400s may standardise the fleet but they won’t work on most Rex routes as others have said. Secondly they dont have the capital to buy a single aircraft, let alone a whole fleet. The Queensland base was meant to get a new leased aircraft to commence ops in July, now arriving in October, read into that what you will…._

As for the Syd-cbr tag flight, it’s not doable while the Adelaide-Melbourne flights exist, the ones where QR “forgot” to open up seats for sale ex Adelaide to Doha when services commenced…..

[PoppaJo]

ZL is both cheaper and has more growth potential domestically and a larger potential ROI
Can you explain the last bit, how do they get a larger ROI vs Virgin?

[Deano969]

Can you explain the last bit, how do they get a larger ROI vs Virgin?
Buying a stake in REX understandably would be a much smaller upfront cost for starters
They you weigh that up against a VA investment where Bain has been running the show for a few years to dazzle a potential investor with amazing figures, in other words VA will be as good as it gets for an investor

ZL on the other hand is a somewhat fledgling jet operator with untapped potential
Grow the fleet
Add new routes
Advertise
Add FFPs
Add better lounges
Chase corporate
Etc

A bit of investment for a potentially large return and the addition of widebodies for Europe the US and Asia if ZL remains over 50% Australian owned

[PoppaJo]

ZL on the other hand is a somewhat fledgling jet operator with untapped potential
Grow the fleet
Add new routes
Advertise
Add FFPs
Add better lounges
Chase corporate
Etc



So do what Virgin did.

Invest, Go Broke, Equity Buyout, Go Broke, Next Equity…

[Ladloy]

Buying a stake in REX understandably would be a much smaller upfront cost for starters
They you weigh that up against a VA investment where Bain has been running the show for a few years to dazzle a potential investor with amazing figures, in other words VA will be as good as it gets for an investor

ZL on the other hand is a somewhat fledgling jet operator with untapped potential
Grow the fleet
Add new routes
Advertise
Add FFPs
Add better lounges
Chase corporate
Etc

A bit of investment for a potentially large return and the addition of widebodies for Europe the US and Asia if ZL remains over 50% Australian owned
where is PAG's ROI?

[43Inches]

They won't be getting ATRs...
They won't be getting new birds
The Q400s will help standardise the fleet and REX will only buy 10-20 year old frames

Make no mistake ZL and VA are both in talks with QR, but QR still believe they will get extra flights and the SYD-CBR tag is still a viable option
That said VA is the preferred option although ZL is both cheaper and has more growth potential domestically and a larger potential ROI

A 10-20 year old Q400 is worth the same as a new ATR, thats the problem. They are a lot more expensive new than the respective new ATR. You are paying for a thouroughbred vs a school pony. That is why ATR kicked its ass in sales, as they made its nag way cheaper to buy and operate. I don't like ATR at all personally, but you can't argue with its operating economics. The SAAB 2000 died a similar death as it worked out cheaper to buy an ERJ/CRJ and wear the extra fuel burn.

The Q400 only worked at QLink because QF group used its power to buy a bunch of them, and then probably helped with other costs along the way. They then get full loads from on carriage and the QF groups marketing pull.

[Deano969]

where is PAG's ROI?
Same place as QFs dividend

[PoppaJo]

A bit of investment for a potentially large return and the addition of widebodies for Europe the US and Asia if ZL remains over 50% Australian owned

At a pinch one could see Virgin operating a heavy twin to Doha for its potential investor, we have seen Virgin operating to Abu Dhabi and Kuala Lumpur on behalf of Etihad in the past. That is a multi year job to get that up and running, market dynamics are much unknown in a few years, all sounds a bit risky. That would also be post a float, which is years away.

Rex operating a 777 to Europe. Fantasy. I assume you are pulling our leg?

[morno]

Rex operating a 777 to Europe. Fantasy. I assume you are pulling our leg?

He’s pulling something, but I don’t think it’s our leg.

Deano969, life’s laughable optimist.

[43Inches]

Buying a stake in REX understandably would be a much smaller upfront cost for starters
They you weigh that up against a VA investment where Bain has been running the show for a few years to dazzle a potential investor with amazing figures, in other words VA will be as good as it gets for an investor

ZL on the other hand is a somewhat fledgling jet operator with untapped potential
Grow the fleet
Add new routes
Advertise
Add FFPs
Add better lounges
Chase corporate
Etc

A bit of investment for a potentially large return and the addition of widebodies for Europe the US and Asia if ZL remains over 50% Australian owned

Hang on, are you saying Rex is more than 50% Aussie owned now? Or is Singapore a state of Australia?

[Ladloy]

Hang on, are you saying Rex is more than 50% Aussie owned now? Or is Singapore a state of Australia?
Once all the cash has been taken from PAG, it will be Hong Kong owned.

[Deano969]

The Singaporeans could just get dual citizenship, problem solved

"market dynamics are much unknown in a few years"

When things look their worst is the time to plan to invest and grow
A large investment from QR could see ZL or VA rapidly expand especially to the ME in their own colours with QR supplied metal

[Mr Google Head]

Replacing the Saabs…haha been hearing that one for almost 20 years…

[PoppaJo]

The day I see a Rex 777 in Doha is the same day I’ll ask my doc to get my head checked.

[Ladloy]

The Singaporeans could just get dual citizenship, problem solved

"market dynamics are much unknown in a few years"

When things look their worst is the time to plan to invest and grow
A large investment from QR could see ZL or VA rapidly expand especially to the ME in their own colours with QR supplied metal
once the final cash payments are through its majority HK owned. couple that with Singaporean ownership, youre looking at a very small minority of Australian owned shares.

[hyg]

The Singaporeans could just get dual citizenship, problem solved

"market dynamics are much unknown in a few years"

When things look their worst is the time to plan to invest and grow
A large investment from QR could see ZL or VA rapidly expand especially to the ME in their own colours with QR supplied metal
Singapore doesn't allow dual citizenship mate

[Going Nowhere]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/rex-to-scale-back-services-in-regional-nsw-qld-pilot-shortage/102891120?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link

[Ladloy]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-22/rex-to-scale-back-services-in-regional-nsw-qld-pilot-shortage/102891120?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
it's not like they have enough serviceable aircraft for the pilots to fly. Deano where you at? Profits soon?

[PoppaJo]

They are laughable.

[Wizofoz]

They are laughable.

Indeed- they should have followed best practice and scheduled flights they wouldn't have been able to operate...

[Deano969]

To be fair QF JQ and VA will be reducing flights now or shortly as well as demand has come off the boil and we know there is a pilot shortage

• Sydney-Albury Bonza-MCY and OOL on 737s would have taken away some traffic here
• Sydney-Coffs Harbour Launched against QF and were getting fair loads could easily drop 1 daily
• Sydney-Griffith-Narrandera tagged QF also on Griffith route
• Sydney-Orange Likely result of QF seat dumping on marginal route
• Sydney-Parkes Likely was over serviced anyway
• Sydney-Port Macquarie Launched against QF and were getting fair loads could easily drop 1 daily plus Bonza 3 weekly to MEL would have some impact
• Sydney-Armidale Needed to be more than once daily or dropped anyway

Moving forward
As I said earlier, REX is transitioning from regional only to more of a mainline carrier with a regional feed and the above reductions somewhat reflect this
Even SAABs are overkill on many REX regional routes and would be better served by the likes of Pelican
That said, even Pelican could not make Bathurst work with a 19 seat bird
Likely to see Q400s enter the fleet over the next few years replacing SAABs and less frequencies and other destinations handed to Pelican, pity they don't do some kind of deal with Pelican though as they have ties with VA

[chimbu warrior]

Clearly Rex are comfortable with the ownership of people (I believe that is called slavery), but not the ownership of problems.

[Wizofoz]

Clearly Rex are comfortable with the ownership of people (I believe that is called slavery).

What the hell are you talking about??

[Ladloy]

What the hell are you talking about??
Pillage: the action of pillaging a place or property, especially in war.

Rex seem to think they own their pilots like they are some sort of commodity.
They forget supply and demand goes both ways.

[brokenagain]

It’s quite telling that even sign on bonuses and advertising for pilots overseas through crewing companies (Rishworth) isn’t enough to keep the show on the road.

[Wizofoz]

Pillage: the action of pillaging a place or property, especially in war.

Rex seem to think they own their pilots like they are some sort of commodity.
They forget supply and demand goes both ways.
OK, but they don't own them- their problem is people leaving. That's not how slavery works...

[markis10]

To be fair QF JQ and VA will be reducing flights now or shortly as well as demand has come off the boil and we know there is a pilot shortage

• Sydney-Albury Bonza-MCY and OOL on 737s would have taken away some traffic here
• Sydney-Coffs Harbour Launched against QF and were getting fair loads could easily drop 1 daily
• Sydney-Griffith-Narrandera tagged QF also on Griffith route
• Sydney-Orange Likely result of QF seat dumping on marginal route
• Sydney-Parkes Likely was over serviced anyway
• Sydney-Port Macquarie Launched against QF and were getting fair loads could easily drop 1 daily plus Bonza 3 weekly to MEL would have some impact
• Sydney-Armidale Needed to be more than once daily or dropped anyway

Moving forward
As I said earlier, REX is transitioning from regional only to more of a mainline carrier with a regional feed and the above reductions somewhat reflect this
Even SAABs are overkill on many REX regional routes and would be better served by the likes of Pelican
That said, even Pelican could not make Bathurst work with a 19 seat bird
Likely to see Q400s enter the fleet over the next few years replacing SAABs and less frequencies and other destinations handed to Pelican, pity they don't do some kind of deal with Pelican though as they have ties with VA

Yep, Q400 is the future - not, lots of upbeat announcements about new business yet the last fleet addition was a year ago and the new arrival is 6 months late. Meanwhile lots of SAABs doing nothing, and while new 737s arrive, the original fleet is coming off lease and at least one is unlikely to stay. Rex isnt even treading water.

[MickG0105]

So the 33 seater 340 is overkill on many routes and the solution is to go to a 70+ seater. And the plan for the transition to mainline with regional feed is to eviscerate regional. Sounds like it's all coming together nicely.

[MickG0105]

... , the original fleet is coming off lease and at least one is unlikely to stay. ...
Are you saying that Rex only signed three year leases for the first tranche of their jet fleet?

[43Inches]

So the 33 seater 340 is overkill on many routes and the solution is to go to a 70+ seater. And the plan for the transition to mainline with regional feed is to eviscerate regional. Sounds like it's all coming together nicely.

The way Rex are going they will not have a regional airline in the areas it counts for serious on carriage, that is South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Their focus on propping up these marginal subsidized routes in Queensland and Western Australia is undoing the airline at it's seams. I say marginal, as I assume the tenders were done based on being profitable when the whole fleet is utilized and you have mass economy of scale with the SAAB. This is the same trap the regionals killed themselves with in the USA, locking into 'subsidized' on carriage from the majors, which when costs increased over time they didn't get out of the situation and operated at a loss even when full.

A few Q400s vying against the encumbent QLink aircraft will not get sufficient patronage, and the operational cost will be well above QLink for the smaller fleet.

From an outside perspective Rex has lost the plot, completely. Even to the point they have still not even tried to engage the pilot group to retain numbers, which is mind blowing to think they are just sitting on their hands trying to recruit themselves out of this, when there are no experienced pilots to recruit. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but it almost seems they will just sit back and take it while they get 'pillaged' to death.

OK, but they don't own them- their problem is people leaving. That's not how slavery works...

The point was that Rex management 'think' they own the pilots, like slaves, however somehow the government just lets them walk away and get employed elsewhere, gotta tighten those loopholes so the slaves can be chained to the yoke...

[Omega471]

Rex are our own worst enemy. Stop blaming QF for our problems!! Just compete. Ask the hard questions. Why are pilots leaving. Give us a reason to stay. Give us some career progression.

Out last EBA negotiations ended with PIA. Why are they so combative??

I have an active EOI to move across to the 73 operation. I’m a Saab Captain and have been jumped for a 73 slot by FOUR CPL holding FO’s….. Nice guys, but give me a break. Rewarding guys for not being able to get their subjects competed, WTF…..

Ask me again why are guys looking elsewhere???

ITS NOT THAT HARD!!!!!

[43Inches]

During the previous pilot shortage the competition 'Poached' the pilots, which means Rex considered them livestock not any more valuable than sheep or maybe the kings deer. Now they are just property to be 'pillaged' by some raiding army. "Hey Ethelred, that damn Viking Bjorn came and 'pillaged' all of my pilots right from my living room", "Yes, bad times, Sven 'poached' several pilots from the lords forest last week, the sheriff of Nottingham is after him I hear...", "Well if you hear of any pilots cheap, I need to replace mine, ye olde shop has run out of good ones, there's only the nags down at the ye olde aeroclub left, and those ones complain too much and want some form of living wage and low work hour", "I heard the vikings were offering them better scraps and less chains for oaring their longships, thats why the shortage, apparently they even stopped using whips"

[43Inches]

Rex are our own worst enemy. Stop blaming QF for our problems!! Just compete. Ask the hard questions. Why are pilots leaving. Give us a reason to stay. Give us some career progression.

Out last EBA negotiations ended with PIA. Why are they so combative??

I have an active EOI to move across to the 73 operation. I’m a Saab Captain and have been jumped for a 73 slot by FOUR CPL holding FO’s….. Nice guys, but give me a break. Rewarding guys for not being able to get their subjects competed, WTF…..

Ask me again why are guys looking elsewhere???

ITS NOT THAT HARD!!!!!

The 737 progression is one thing, but what are they doing to make a Captain like yourself think twice about leaving when there are no 737 slots? All I've seen mentioned here is an offer of $30k over 2 years to go live in BFN, but what is being done to slow those wanting to move on in Sydney/Melbourne/Adelaide, that have no interest in working out of base. It looks like they almost want those bases to just empty and close down. Considering I'm hearing that some pilots are possibly making way over $50k in callouts and such, seems like they can afford at least that much for retention.

I would not be suprised though if Rex thinks it can fix it's morale problems by getting rid of all it's current pilots and starting again, they are probably thick enough to think something like that would work, but without fixing the structural issues within the company the cycle will just continue in a downwards spiral.

When you have ex pilots warning new pilots to stay away and go work for a dodgy 210 operator instead it's telling.

[PoppaJo]

Are you saying that Rex only signed three year leases for the first tranche of their jet fleet?
I assume the Virgin VO series jets? Should be scrapped or converted to freighters. They are pretty ratty old machines.

[MickG0105]

I assume the Virgin VO series jets? Should be scrapped or converted to freighters. They are pretty ratty old machines.
I went back to have a look at the Non-current Lease Liability line in the FY21 annual report and that points to short leases (3-4 years) on the initial six aircraft. That is likely to cause some problems.

Oh, and the new addition is -8JS (don't know if that's been covered already).

[Australopithecus]

Short leases at covid pricing may be all they could get. Either that or the geriatric jet factor. Either way, 737s are leasing for around $420,000 AUD/ month for a 2012 build -800.

interestingly, that’s about what a new A220-300 goes for.

[markis10]

Are you saying that Rex only signed three year leases for the first tranche of their jet fleet?

I am not privy to details, all I hear is RQG (ex 2005 VH-VUF)is expected to leave soon, and that an attempt to source a replacement fell through from the US, maybe the potential lessor had a different view to some here re the status of the balance sheet, again not privy to details?

[1A_Please]

I am not privy to details, all I hear is RQG (ex 2005 VH-VUF)is expected to leave soon, and that an attempt to source a replacement fell through from the US, maybe the potential lessor had a different view to some here re the status of the balance sheet, again not privy to details?
REX got bargain basement pricing on their initial 737s which were signed at the time when no one knew how the industry would recover from COVID. The fact that they have only been marginally profitable, at best, despite these super low prices makes you wonder how they are going to cope as prices now adjust up to market levels particularly as leasing companies will look at REX and load them up with a risk premium.

[PoppaJo]

They took 3/5 leased Singapore 737s so one would assume they would take the last two within the next year after a heavy check as SQ appear to be deposing of the NG fleet post a heavy check, regardless if leased or owned. Virgin did a deal for all the SQ owned 737s so that ship has sailed.

MAX is very costly at 2023 pricing, likely out of the Rex price range, especially if not already tied to a past deal. Bonza, assuming paying the same as its sister company in Canada ($7m cad month/21 737s), appear to be paying $380k aud per month. Probably less compared to what Rex is fronting up for old machines, plus they have the added bonus of new built efficiencies.

[43Inches]

Whilst Covid and post Max issues seemed like the best time ever to lease jets it has now turned around. The Boeing production issues, Covid slowdown, parts shortages, new engine issues and the post Covid surge in air travel is putting a huge pressure on aircraft pricing and lease costs. Not a good time to be procuring aircraft, new or old. I think we are going into a phase of hyper inflation for aviation, from aircraft and parts costs to staffing costs, good luck to any management in charge today. For everything smaller than a 737 the pressure is even greater with very little replacement options and high demand for a trickle of new builds.

As for the SAABs, Rex management dropped the ball probably 5-10 years ago. There will be no affordable turboprop come to market that will replace the SAAB. With such a large fleet Rex should have begun a fleet wide upgrade program in partnership with SAAB to zero time and modernize the fleet, the Maritime Patrol aircraft already had the zero time options all Rex had to do was to negotiate an airline version of this. There's even the possibility to install fuselage plugs and add more capacity and new engine and prop options that could be explored. I personally think it's too late now, just like any offers to retain significant staff morale should have been done years ago. Go cheap, get cheap outcomes....

[pinkpanther1]

So the last 2 737s are registered 8KH (Kim Hai) and 8JS (John Sharp)
how humble - naming aircraft after yourself. Give me a break :rolleyes:

[mikewil]

Anyone think this whole poaching/pillaging pilots narrative will lead to Rex being able to import cheap pilot labour from overseas?

We need a better union who can rebut these stupid Rex claims and any suggestion of importing pilots should be challenged with the statistics on how many Australian pilots are leaving for the USA to fly jets because Australian airlines don't want them.

[43Inches]

Anyone think this whole poaching/pillaging pilots narrative will lead to Rex being able to import cheap pilot labour from overseas?

We need a better union who can rebut these stupid Rex claims and any suggestion of importing pilots should be challenged with the statistics on how many Australian pilots are leaving for the USA to fly jets because Australian airlines don't want them.

It's already been done, fact is there are very few overseas pilots willing to make the move to Australia on the conditions offered. Hence why all the other threads about Australia being behind the world in flight crew pay and conditions recently. Reality is that Australians are the cheap pilots moving overseas for the vacant jobs on offer. creating more shortages here. There is only one real answer and that is a big increase in pay and conditions to retain whats left.

[Stationair8]

Come to Australia, to fly a forty year old turboprop and live the dream!

[MickG0105]

The long awaited Loyalty Program - https://rex.com.au/rexflyer/LoyaltyHomePage.aspx

No program partners named (leaves you wondering why it took so long to set up), between 3 and 7 points earned per dollar spent; it doesn't exactly scream "game-changer".

[Deano969]

The long awaited Loyalty Program - https://rex.com.au/rexflyer/LoyaltyHomePage.aspx

No program partners named (leaves you wondering why it took so long to set up), between 3 and 7 points earned per dollar spent; it doesn't exactly scream "game-changer".

Agreed, this should have kicked off with their 1st jet service so that those that gave REX a try when fares were rock bottom had a reason to re book

A couple of points
For those that already fly REX frequently this will be a win but cost REX around 10% as those flights would have been booked anyway
Fares would have to raise slightly across the board to cover the above
REX would be hoping that, like all the other airlines, there is a burn rate on points

Unfortunately this looks way too in house
You can't earn points buying groceries or petrol nor can you book on partner airlines for international

Whilst this may be appealing for those already regularly flying with REX and may attract a small number of QF regional passengers I think that this may be a swing and a miss

What could have worked
To earn points on fuel or groceries from secondary chains

[Mr Mossberg]

It does look to be a good scheme though. And I reckon they're probably working on a shop of some sort. Not having international partners is the test for them.

[hawk_eye]

Isn’t there an issue with opening up all unsold seats within 48 hours of departure to be booked at the lowest frequent flyer fare? Within 48 hours of departure time should be your higher yielding fares shouldn’t they?

[PoppaJo]

Well considering the banks, main supermarkets, car hire, travel, retailers, fuel providers are all tied up with the other two, I struggle to see how they expect to hit the ridiculous ten figure valuation aspiration they had on this according to ‘Mother’.

In all seriousness, with all of the above contracted out to the competition, how on earth does this make money? Or is it just to please loyal customers? The company is burning cash isn’t it?

Don’t even try to tell me one can build a successful loyalty program by selling points to IGA, the local family owned servo, or pay day lenders.

[43Inches]

Coles and 'Flybuys' are only linked to Velocity, not sole contracted, and many other businesses that had links to Ansett are still not contracted back into the loyalty program schemes. There's a big market of possibilities. Just depends what you have to trade to tap in.

PS most of the car rental, hotel chains and other travel extras tend to just affiliate now with airlines rather than sole contract. Rex just has to prove they can provide X customers and they will make a discounted deal for their passengers.

[MickG0105]

..., how on earth does this make money? Or is it just to please loyal customers? The company is burning cash isn’t it?
...
Yep, it has taken Rex 18 months to two years to conjure up a loyalty program that has no revenue stream, just a balance sheet liability and an expense line. Looks like they might have had the work experience kiddie bung it together.

[Slippery_Pete]

So the last 2 737s are registered 8KH (Kim Hai) and 8JS (John Sharp)
how humble - naming aircraft after yourself. Give me a break :rolleyes:

Perhaps VH-8JS was named so because the aircraft whines so much?

[Ladloy]

Perhaps VH-8JS was named so because the aircraft whines so much?
it's whining again today about requiring government action

[Slippery_Pete]

it's whining again today about requiring government action

What victims they are 😂 One wonders if not-so-Sharp has shares in Kleenex.

When you told all your employees

“If it’s too hot in the kitchen, then get out!”

… and they do exactly that!

[PoppaJo]

So the same guy who said in front of the media………

‘we are going to rip away all those entitlements that these Pilots have built up over the years, 10% below Jetstar!’

….is now whinging to the media this morning he wants the government to act to stop all his pilots going?

Reap what you sow. Find me someone that cares if they closed down tomorrow if every last person left?

[Deano969]

Perhaps REX could replace JS with AJ

[1A_Please]

Perhaps REX could replace JS with AJ
Only if REX were happy for their CEO to permanently manage the company from Dublin!! I don't think AJ is too keen to come back to Australian shores anytime soon.

[dr dre]

….is now whinging to the media this morning he wants the government to act to stop all his pilots going?


No joke:

REX's deputy chairman has warned the airline will have to cut more services and flight frequencies across its regional network unless the government acts quickly to stop "Qantas's predatory behaviour" and help stem a loss of pilots.

This was the first line in a lot pf paywalled news articles this morning. I can't see the rest of the article, does anyone know what specific measures he wants the government to enact to stop his pilots freely choosing to work for an alternative employer? Re-introduction of slavery perhaps?

[Bull_Shark]

You’ve got to laugh, this is LKHs opening statement in Rex’s latest financial report.

Rex’s financial misfortune was largely the result of Qantas’ illegal anti-competitive behavior in the prior years when the latter dumped excess capacity on Rex’s regional routes in the hope of damaging us so much that our nascent domestic operations would not be able to succeed and grow. As could have been predicted, this has resulted in Rex’s regional business (excluding regulated routes) suffering a loss before tax of $26m in the period under review compared to profits of $5m prior to COVID.So while Qantas announced with great fanfare a record profit of Underlying Profit Before Tax of $2.47 billion, Rex reported one of its worst ever performances with a Group operating loss of over $30m. It is most disheartening to see the wicked prosper.

[MickG0105]

You’ve got to laugh, this is LKHs opening statement in Rex’s latest financial report.
And the market's response to that confected pap? REX falling backwards through $1.00 a share to three year trading lows.

[1A_Please]

You’ve got to laugh, this is LKHs opening statement in Rex’s latest financial report.
Interesting to see they are not big believers in gender diversity at REX. According to their annual report, which their own comments make to seem like it may be their last, they have no female representation on their Board of Directors or in their senior executive team.

[neville_nobody]

REX are at it again, claiming their pilots are being "stolen".

Pillage
verb
gerund or present participle: pillaging

rob a (place) using violence, especially in wartime (https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&sca_esv=570249222&q=wartime&si=ALGXSlYwkgxr-HbbJwcOTTqB6eths8tmK2fNbLKylnrlbPNe0A5bnGI3BlsciUPst9_FJHlnr ru1weuGEcn2HUyPdEYythfC2A%3D%3D&expnd=1).
"the abbey was plundered and pillaged"

steal (something) using violence, especially in wartime.
"artworks pillaged from churches and museums"




Rex Airlines has accused competitors such as Qantas of “pillaging” its regional pilots, forcing more cuts to services between the country and the city.

The carrier issued a statement on Friday afternoon saying it would reduce the number of services between Sydney and NSW towns Albury, Coffs Harbour, Griffith, Narrandera, Orange, Parkes and Port Macquarie from October 30.

It is also temporarily suspending flights between Sydney and Armidale and withdrawing its far north Queensland route between Cairns and Bamaga.

“The airline is forced to make further reductions to its regional network as the major carriers, particularly the Qantas Group, continued their relentless pillaging of Rex’s pilot group,” a company statement said.

Qantas has been contacted for comment.

In April, Rex reduced or changed flight times for nine services across four states, including routes between Sydney and Broken Hill, Melbourne and Wagga Wagga, and Adelaide and Port Lincoln.

If the workforce situation improves, the reduced services will return to normal operation by the end of March next year.

Rex’s April announcement made no mention of its competitors, instead saying there was a chronic shortage of staff and supply chain disruptions.
The affected routes require SAAB 340 twin-engine pilots, who were in heated pay negotiations with the airline in June last year.Pilots took protected industrial action, including a ban on topping up planes with extra fuel, after extended wage negotiations.At the time Rex was offering a 5.1 per cent increase, plus catch-up payments, which the Australian Federation of Air Pilots said amounted to a pay cut as it did not cover inflation.

Rex’s deputy chairman John Sharp said the negotiations exposed the “hypocrisy” of the union because it agreed to a 2 per cent pay rise for QantasLink pilots in 2021 and 2022.

Most Rex twin-engine pilots agreed to new pay deal in November.

– AAP

[KRUSTY 34]

Ok, let me see if I have this straight.

REX, among other things, are citing the failing of the Regional services for the continuing woes of the group, in particular the negative effect that this overall underperformance is having on the domestic jet operation. An operation whose business plan was dependent on the collapse of VA? I do recall that was part of the pitch to the ASIC.

Do I have this right?

[Stationair8]

Townsville refueller, says they are going to two Melbourne-Hobart flights a day, along with Hobart- Sydney return daily.

[SHVC]

Their heart is no longer in the country.

[MickG0105]

Townsville refueller, says they are going to two Melbourne-Hobart flights a day, along with Hobart- Sydney return daily.
Increasing MEL-HBA is not entirely out of left field. It's historically the No 10 city pair by pax numbers and is still a good 25 percent below its pre-pandemic volumes. The extra flight will take it to something like 15 returns a day. That's got to be approaching saturation for economic returns. It'll be interesting to see if they pull in new punters for the additional flight or just atomise their existing base.

SYD-HBA will be interesting. Obviously it allows them to leverage whatever ground handling arrangements they have established in HBA. That said, it's historically not even a Top 20 route.

As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

[markis10]

Shares down to 86c today.

[KRUSTY 34]

Shares down to 86c today.

Glad I sold when I did!

[PoppaJo]

Well those convertible notes are about to become very costly for Rex, I recall the use by date was April next year, with potential extensions.

I don’t think we will be getting those monthly unaudited profit numbers this year which start rolling in about now.

[43Inches]

Won't cost Rex anything, the shareholders though... PAG will just take over ownership of what's left of Rex. That's if current management don't completely destroy it first.

[PoppaJo]

I assume another cash injection will be needed to come from somewhere?

Don’t Rex need to fund the loss associated with any notes that are traded below $1.50? Mick might be across the financial logistics better than most.

[43Inches]

Can't fund it, just hand over the keys, can't get blood from a stone, but you can try and sell it to some other sucker after a bit of surface 'change'. If Rex can't afford the change over, they can just force administration, PAG will be down the list of debtors with staff and so first, so it would be in their interest to just take over and run it if there is profit to be made. Maybe Rexs plan is for everybody to leave, at least they don't have to pay out redundancies if there's no staff left, it's about the only way their current HR policy makes any sense. From what I understand half or so of Link pilots are ex Rex, working for less, that probably tells you something... Although Rex is not alone in it's suicide march, QLink is there with them.

[unobtanium]

No joke:

REX's deputy chairman has warned the airline will have to cut more services and flight frequencies across its regional network unless the government acts quickly to stop "Qantas's predatory behaviour" and help stem a loss of pilots.

This was the first line in a lot pf paywalled news articles this morning. I can't see the rest of the article, does anyone know what specific measures he wants the government to enact to stop his pilots freely choosing to work for an alternative employer? Re-introduction of slavery perhaps?

how is qanta's poaching causing half a dozen saab's grounded without engine's, looks like they can't keep there own house in order
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1891x931/rexsaab_b13a6bee1f40f205081917e2e34607531d5dc6dc.jpg

[43Inches]

A mate showed me a picture of the Wagga SAABs, way more than double what's in that picture sitting sans engine. I don't have the picture to post though.

[Hollywood1]

They'll find a way to blame Qantas for the missing engines and props on these sad looking Saabs.

[Ladloy]

Why blame yourself when you can blame others?

[MickG0105]

I assume another cash injection will be needed to come from somewhere?

Don’t Rex need to fund the loss associated with any notes that are traded below $1.50? Mick might be across the financial logistics better than most.
The PAG financing deal is structured such that when Rex draws on the $150 million, PAG are issued with Convertible Notes at a face value of $1.00 for the amount drawn down. At any time from the third anniversary of the First Drawdown on 16 March 2021 to the fifth anniversary (the Maturity Date) PAG may convert all or a portion of the Convertible Notes to shares at a conversion value of $1.50.

For example, when Rex drew down the first $50 million from PAG on 16 March 2021, Rex issued PAG with 50 million $1 convertible notes that could be converted to 333,333,333 shares at a conversion price of $1.50 as early as 16 March 2024. To the extent that there is a downside difference between the conversion price of $1.50 and the trading price, PAG won't elect to convert. They would instead continue to take interest on the notes.

Things potentially get messy for Rex at the Maturity Date if their shares are trading under $1.50.

[MickG0105]

how is qanta's poaching causing half a dozen saab's grounded without engine's, looks like they can't keep there own house in order
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1891x931/rexsaab_b13a6bee1f40f205081917e2e34607531d5dc6dc.jpg
They must be the ones that Rex are going to convert to electric.

[Global Aviator]

A mate showed me a picture of the Wagga SAABs, way more than double what's in that picture sitting sans engine. I don't have the picture to post though.

We all know they are waiting their hybrid lectric conversions, sheesh givem a break!!!

(yes sarcasm).

🙃

[swingswong]

Can’t sustain frequency on profitable routes.

Can’t retain staff.

Can’t procure engines.

Aircraft shortage.

Crew shortage.

Share price keeps going down down down.

How much is management being paid for their ‘expertise’ ? If I performed this badly I’d be sacked!

[dr dre]

m

How much is management being paid for their ‘expertise’ ? If I performed this badly I’d be sacked!

Here’s some of LKH’s commentary all taken from recent Annual reports:

2023

So while Qantas announced with great fanfare a record profit of Underlying Profit Before Tax of $2.47 billion, Rex reported one of its worst ever performances with a Group operating loss of over $30m. It is most disheartening to see the wicked prosper. However, in this darkest of hour, I am reminded of, and draw strength from, Rex’s guiding principle that headlines Rex’s Value Statement published in every single annual report since 2005: “What does it profit a Company if it gains the whole world and loses its own soul.”

2022

I too have been driven to despair many a times. Reflecting on the last 20 years, it seems like Sisyphus from Greek mythology, where every time we made some progress, the external storms came to push us downhill

2021

In parting, I would like to share excerpts from my favourite poem which I find so appropriate for the current situation:

“IF” by Rudyard Kipling follows

I think the term “cooked” may be appropriate

[Ladloy]

How much is management being paid for their ‘expertise’ ? If I performed this badly I’d be sacked!
20% more since the covid payments from their mates

[1A_Please]

how is qanta's poaching causing half a dozen saab's grounded without engine's, looks like they can't keep there own house in order

Sorry, but I can't read your posts until you inject some basic punctuation and grammar at least.

[43Inches]

I think the number of grounded may also be well over 'half a dozen'. One has to really think, considering these sort of engines have TBO's well in excess of 3000 hours, how does half the fleet suddenly timex in such a short space of time. This is definitely not just related to Covid, there's something else at play.

“What does it profit a Company if it gains the whole world and loses its own soul.”

So, considering it's heart and soul was servicing country NSW, SA and VIC, I would say it is losing that soul very fast. If it's soul was it's employees, they are leaving in droves, not just pilots.

[ebt]

We all know they are waiting their hybrid lectric conversions, sheesh givem a break!!!

(yes sarcasm).

🙃

They'll always be together, however far it seems, together in electric dreams.

[Deano969]

I stand by what I have said earlier
REX is morphing into mainline jet ops with regional feed and bit by bit eliminating low volume or non feeder regional routes
The las SAAB they bought was July 22 likely for parts as it's been stored at Wagga since delivery and in July this year they sold a SAAB to Chathams so I don't think the amount of SAABs available is a concern to them
Also they have just secured their 10th 738 due November

So a bunch or old SAABs parked for parts should come as no surprise as they scale back regional and strip down old frames to keep the remainder running until replacement just like QQ with their F100s
They are more valuable for parts than to sell off

In time the SAABs will be replaced with 10-15yo Q400s which will be right sized for their remaining routes, think Coffs, Port, Wagga, Dubbo
Frequencies will drop back on most regional routes, but that just puts them in the same boat as QF with some being cut and picked up by the likes of Pelican

[43Inches]

Not sure where you are getting a 'fleet' of 10-15 year old Q400s. Then there's the small other thing called 'price'.

Anyway, cannibalizing your own fleet to make ends meet is not a sign of a healthy company, it's a point of last resort. And the only reason that Rex would not need those SAABs flying would be that they have no crew, unless they have completely pissed off their customer base that is. Oh, and on pulling out of routes because they are loss making, funny, QLink just happened to throw a dash 8 on most of those routes at reasonable frequencies, so is QLink now making losses for the fun of it?

[PoppaJo]

The future isn’t Q400s on the current balance sheet, perhaps a 737 operation alongside a smaller Saab operation. They need the 737 operation to start pumping some cash, and that time is right now. Some of the highest margin routes on earth, they should be raking it in.

Who is going to fund a Q400 fleet changeover? The company is red ink all over. Run a mile.

[Deano969]

Anyway, cannibalizing your own fleet to make ends meet is not a sign of a healthy company, it's a point of last resort.

Tell that to Alliance

[morno]

Tell that to Alliance

They’re not reducing the size of their fleet to do it though. Rex are literally pulling pieces off aircraft that were otherwise perfectly good, until they had no pilots to fly them and no spares. Alliance have gone into E190’s.

Bad comparison buddy

[Deano969]

As I said earlier they appear to be consolidating their routes so no real need to keep 57 SAABs flying
If they were not reworking their network, then fair point

REX are changing in more ways than just adding mainline
Moving forward mainline will be their core operation along with with regional feed
They needed to move away from the Kendell / Hazelton merger days as there are no 30 seat planes being made to replace their SAABs
They will part out some frames to maintain service until Q400s start to replace them and mid life Q400s will become readily available shortly due to the economic downturn
Twice daily regionals will drop to daily whilst others will be and have been cut
REX has dropped some routes over the last couple of years that don't fit the new model, but importantly added routes like Coffs and Port Macquarie that do fit the new model, ie. feeding into mainline and higher frequency

[Colonel_Klink]

As I said earlier they appear to be consolidating their routes so no real need to keep 57 SAABs flying
If they were not reworking their network, then fair point

REX are changing in more ways than just adding mainline
Moving forward mainline will be their core operation along with with regional feed
They needed to move away from the Kendell / Hazelton merger days as there are no 30 seat planes being made to replace their SAABs
They will part out some frames to maintain service until Q400s start to replace them and mid life Q400s will become readily available shortly due to the economic downturn
Twice daily regionals will drop to daily whilst others will be and have been cut
REX has dropped some routes over the last couple of years that don't fit the new model, but importantly added routes like Coffs and Port Macquarie that do fit the new model, ie. feeding into mainline and higher frequency

It’s not a strategic decision to consolidate their network like you’re suggesting (because a decision like that would probably need to be forthcoming to the ASX - although we know what Rex and full disclosure are like). Otherwise they wouldn’t have been complaining about QF coming in on their routes 12 months ago, nor applying for the government regulated routes in WA.

It’s a decision they have had to make because they have treated their staff like crap - and those employees (particularly pilots) are now leaving in their droves.

[Deano969]

They’re not reducing the size of their fleet to do it though. Rex are literally pulling pieces off aircraft that were otherwise perfectly good, until they had no pilots to fly them and no spares. Alliance have gone into E190’s.

Bad comparison buddy
So how many 190s are doing FIFO work ?
They are flying for Link and Airnorth
Some of the Fokkers are flying for VA
They still have 32 Fokkers flying around with the last delivered in May 2019, many in this batch were bought just for spare parts
The first 190 arrived 18 months later and were bought to lease to Link

Apples with apples morono

[Icarus2001]

They will part out some frames to maintain service until Q400s start to replace them and mid life Q400s will become readily available shortly due to the economic downturn

So a down turn is coming and you think this will make Q400 aircraft readily available?

Well I believe you are wrong. Even with a slight slowing of the economy that MAY occur, aviation is still on the up swing.

As I said earlier they appear to be consolidating their routes so no real need to keep 57 SAABs flying

My understanding is that you have that back to front. They cannot keep the aircraft flying due to crew shortage and so are "consolidating their routes".

A company does not shrink their way in to profitability. The share market agrees.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/672x285/rexshareprice_f61c05a0ccf6f01b3d738e1256c52c7ea687909e.jpg

So how many 190s are doing FIFO work ?
They are flying for Link and Airnorth

What about NJE? What is that six? Alliance use E190 aircraft in Darwin and Brisbane for FIFO. Say three frames.

​​​​​​​

[SHVC]

There is no downturn in the economy, COVID savings would be long gone and the public are just adjusting, like the rest of us. As pilots we can all see the amount of traffic going through the major airports and at my company you struggle to get a staff travel seat.

[markis10]

So how many 190s are doing FIFO work ?
They are flying for Link and Airnorth
Some of the Fokkers are flying for VA
They still have 32 Fokkers flying around with the last delivered in May 2019, many in this batch were bought just for spare parts
The first 190 arrived 18 months later and were bought to lease to Link

Apples with apples morono

You research skills seem to be non existent and on par with the average keyboard warrior, your questions are answered in the financial results, latest:

33 E190s, 18 to QFlink, 3 to Air North via dry lease and 9 for FIFO with the remaining three in maint.

As of Jan this year.
Source Results press 10th Aug

[Icarus2001]

A few more than 18 to Qantas link...

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02727094-2A1481628?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

[markis10]

A few more than 18 to Qantas link...

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02727094-2A1481628?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Figures quoted were actual fleet numbers at balance date - ie June 30, not futures, the bump up from 18 was announced in May

[Icarus2001]

Didn't you say Jan?

[markis10]

Didn't you say Jan?
Jan-Jun = same number, the two arrivals were spares over that time

[Deano969]

You research skills seem to be non existent and on par with the average keyboard warrior, your questions are answered in the financial results, latest:

33 E190s, 18 to QFlink, 3 to Air North via dry lease and 9 for FIFO with the remaining three in maint.

As of Jan this year.
Source Results press 10th Aug

Irrespective, QQ are doing with their Fokkers exactly what ZL are doing with their SAABs
I have no doubt that QQ will start replacing their Fokkers with the next batch of 190s
QQ are just further down the track in this regard than ZL as they have 190s on order already where as ZL have no SAAB replacements on order as yet

REX would seem to be taking logical steps
1) Mainline can only go 1 of 2 ways, expand or abandon, obviously they are going to grow this
2) Regional
Pilot shortage and staff costs have wiped some cost advantages they had over QLink, combined with suitable SAAB replacement forces them to revaluate their operations
Larger Q400s is the logical way forward as they already have a small fleet over at NJE with the latest just delivered this month
The future Q400 ops will need to see a reduction on some routes whilst others will simply be dropped
They have already cut some frequencies and as a result have increased load factors on the remaining services, whilst other unprofitable routes have been dropped all together
REX, as a business, no longer want to serve every little town like Grafton and Lismore just for the sake of keeping their birds in the air
Sharp, Pelican, Nexus etc can play in that market
Dubbo, Wagga, Albury, Coffs, Port etc are right type for Q400s and they will concentrate on these type of routes along with subsidised routes

REX spent their first 20 years on regional with loads around 50% making marginal profits, what is the point of a continuation of this model when
1) Their fleet is now reaching the end of its useful life and there is no replacement out there
2) To staff this fleet is now much more expensive for the revenue generated
3) A Q400 can generate twice the income for roughly the same staff costs as a SAAB

IMO REX are adapting their business model in a sensible way for the long term

[Ladloy]

Irrespective, QQ are doing with their Fokkers exactly what ZL are doing with their SAABs
I have no doubt that QQ will start replacing their Fokkers with the next batch of 190s
QQ are just further down the track in this regard than ZL as they have 190s on order already where as ZL have no SAAB replacements on order as yet

REX would seem to be taking logical steps
1) Mainline can only go 1 of 2 ways, expand or abandon, obviously they are going to grow this
2) Regional
Pilot shortage and staff costs have wiped some cost advantages they had over QLink, combined with suitable SAAB replacement forces them to revaluate their operations
Larger Q400s is the logical way forward as they already have a small fleet over at NJE with the latest just delivered this month
The future Q400 ops will need to see a reduction on some routes whilst others will simply be dropped
They have already cut some frequencies and as a result have increased load factors on the remaining services, whilst other unprofitable routes have been dropped all together
REX, as a business, no longer want to serve every little town like Grafton and Lismore just for the sake of keeping their birds in the air
Sharp, Pelican, Nexus etc can play in that market
Dubbo, Wagga, Albury, Coffs, Port etc are right type for Q400s and they will concentrate on these type of routes along with subsidised routes

REX spent their first 20 years on regional with loads around 50% making marginal profits, what is the point of a continuation of this model when
1) Their fleet is now reaching the end of its useful life and there is no replacement out there
2) To staff this fleet is now much more expensive for the revenue generated
3) A Q400 can generate twice the income for roughly the same staff costs as a SAAB

IMO REX are adapting their business model in a sensible way for the long term
whos paying for it?

[PoppaJo]

Alliance are in the position to borrow significant amounts of cash, to the tune of a few hundred million to fund the E190 project. They are also highly profitable. They are having no issues getting cash, with a further $100m a few months ago. They are continuously beating guidance given to the market. Lenders are quite comfortable with QQ, with highly profitable work and contracts lined up for these new aircraft.

Now Rex……Rex has no ability to fund anything and are highly unprofitable. Why would anyone borrow money to them, you have no idea what you are going to get, they have no accurate guidance, and have never been highly profitable.

[Deano969]

There is no need to borrow to lease aircraft
The PAG money was not to buy 737s it is/was for associated costs
Even start ups and loss making airlines can lease aircraft point in case VA

[Ladloy]

There is no need to borrow to lease aircraft
The PAG money was not to buy 737s it is/was for associated costs
Even start ups and loss making airlines can lease aircraft point in case VA
https://youtu.be/eo_I1D2nmSg?feature=shared

[43Inches]

REX spent their first 20 years on regional with loads around 50% making marginal profits, what is the point of a continuation of this model when
1) Their fleet is now reaching the end of its useful life and there is no replacement out there
2) To staff this fleet is now much more expensive for the revenue generated
3) A Q400 can generate twice the income for roughly the same staff costs as a SAAB


The profits on the SAAB fleet have never been marginal. Pre Covid they were making great returns on a predictable and stable route structure, being sole operator on most of it's network. The SAAB airframes could go on indefinitely if Rex had spent small amounts over the last 10 years to modernize the fleet, but they didn't, even though they had the funds to do so. The test bed SAAB used for fatigue measurement made it well past the 100,000 cycle mark so the airfames are basically going with an 'on-condition' limitation, that is no hard life limit, it will just be adjusted as in service aircraft reach that limit with no problems. The problem with the SAAB fleet is entirely management created, lack of upgrades where it counts and lack of pilots and engineers. No new type will fix the last two problems.

The Q400 on the other hand was born with structural problems, has had ongoing in service maintenance issues, requires high work rates to be profitable, burns a lot more fuel in the region of double the SAAB per sector, and will cost more than 3 times the SAAB to operate in real terms whilst only carrying twice the passengers. To start with pilots will be 20-30% more expensive, there's an extra flight attendant as well as having to pay one as a CM. Considering as you said they fly around with 50% load factors at times that would mean load factors on the Q400 of 25%. So what routes will sustain this Q400, possibly West Australian runs, but most of the East Coast current runs require frequency to be profitable, and there's no point having Q400s that run AM/PM only RPT and are empty in the middle of the day. You only have to look at QLinks route structure, most of the Rex routes they compete with 300s, why hasn't QLink bought more Q400s you have to ask? Especially if as you say there's a fleet out there ready for purchase.

[morno]

Essentially Deano has very little clue what he’s talking about and uses bull**** to try and get his ill informed opinions across, trying to justify Rex’s bad business practices.

[MickG0105]

Unless you are looking to actively test the efficacy of your blood pressure medication, best to avoid arguing with idiots.

[43Inches]

Personally I would not want to be anywhere near management level in Rex at the moment, if the company folds that is. ASIC will have some serious questions for all levels of management and it will be extremely stressful for those that can not leave the country, this is not the Ansett administration where some foreign interest can be blamed and the Kendall/Hazos factions slide out the bottom. Remembering that lack of action on problems is just as bad as creating problems. I think sometimes they may forget its a share listed public company. From what I hear there still has been no engagement with the workforce to fix crewing issues. How the SAAB fleet got to the position its in without engines or whatever is something that's worthy of an investigation in itself. There's a whole can of worms to answer "The SAABs were very profitable and then suddenly they were not?", considering there's no major AD, or airframe limitation affecting the fleet there is only limited imagination as to why it's got to where it is. Link seems to be going ok, Sharps is kicking along with Metros, why is Rex failing?

[1A_Please]

REX has never been especially profitable in competitive operations. Much of its money was made on the back of subsidised monopoly routes. Strategically, it has made numerous missteps probably the biggest of which was moving away from VA when logic suggested it should get closer. Sharp etc then stumbled into a jet operation on the basis that VA would collapse over COVID. It quickly became obvious that this was a false assumption and COVID actually gave VA time to restructure without significant inconvenience to customers. The smart play at that point would have been to get close to the new VA but REX chose to believe it could somehow do something unique which it patently can't.

As it currently stands, it is hard to see how it now sets itself up for the future. It has a marginal jet operation that lacks scale and is without anything unique to drive new customers towards it. BONZA has lots of issues but, at least, it is trying to be different.

The market will be loathe to extend finance to any REX restructure. Lease companies may agree to lease them planes but there will be a significant risk premium built into those lease rates. The initial 737s were leased on cheap pandemic rates. These leases are now rolling over and it is likely the unit costs on these ancient 738s will increase by up to 60%.

Comparisons with Alliance are fallacious. Alliance is either replacing its existing ageing F100 fleet or adding new capacity on the back of locked in long-term wet-leases with QLink. They are financially sound and are able to buy outright the secondhand E190s at bargain prices. Had REX got closer to VA rather than walking away and allowing Link in, they could've acquired new fleet on the same basis. Alas, they didn't.

[43Inches]

Much of its money was made on the back of subsidised monopoly routes.

Completely wrong there, most of the profit was on single operator routes, but they were not subsidized. Port Lincoln, Burnie, Griffith, and a lot of other routes had all day frequency, that is multiple flights a day with high loads, sometimes 6 returns. Mildura, Dubbo, Orange, Wagga, Albury, have all been very profitable despite having several competitors over the years, I hear they are doing well on Port Macquarie and Coffs, when they have the planes and crew. It's been managements neglect of these markets and chasing easy money in the subsidized routes that has caused the problem. The Subsidized routes are tendered for a reason, nobody wants to do them otherwise, yes you make guaranteed profit, but not on the scale you need to support a network, it ties up a plane/crew for a whole day and has next to no on carriage. In any case only the Queensland outback routes are subsidized. In WA Rex only has sole operator rights, they are not paid for seats outside of passenger bookings. I don't understand why Albany and Esperence are tendered routes anyway, they have more than enough patronage to support two smaller operators. One of the big factors that many are overlooking is that hubs like Sydney/Melbourne and even Adelaide need a certain mass flow of flights to support the required staff/slots and equipment needed at these ports. The reduced schedules may offer some operation cost reductions, however there is very little you can do to reduce the operational hub costs with these major ports.

There is one reality, that is management has failed to ensure sufficient crew and engineers to operate the SAABs. Other than that the SAAB operation would be very profitable right now, as it is most East coast operations are on very reduced schedule and facing service disruptions regularly, which no doubt will result is less patronage as passengers opt to drive/train/bus instead for reliability.

Had REX got closer to VA rather than walking away and allowing Link in, they could've acquired new fleet on the same basis. Alas, they didn't.

Link is operating SAABs, just better fitted SAABs. However completely agree with the point that Rex should have officially partnered with VA a long time ago. Most of the intercompany angst was to do with BG vs LKH personalities, they should have moved in when BG left.

[Icarus2001]

So if they are burning cash they may be relying on NJE to keep the doors open.

[MickG0105]

So if they are burning cash they may be relying on NJE to keep the doors open.
Probably worth noting that Rex only owns 50 percent of NJE, and NJE ran at a loss (-$3.9 million before tax) for FY23. Of Rex's multiple orifices, they are presently bleeding from many.

[43Inches]

The subsidiaries have always turned over cash flow, but there is no doubt the core profits were made in the SAAB RPT network. None of the other entities on their own were making significant profits like the SAAB fleet. Which is why it's so hard to watch them trash what was a very successful business model. If I had a few million cash I would entertain the though of starting a competing SAAB operation in SE Australia and service the Rex ports that are being neglected. I know enough pilots and engineers that would jump ship very fast given the opportunity to work for someone who would look after them, Link is doing just that on a limited scale.

Its also key to remember that while the SAAB fleet was making a LOT of profit it was being funneled into various other ventures like setting up the flying school, buying out Pelair, paying down debts to almost zero, lots of property acquisition. So whilst Rex were announcing modest profits of $20-$30 millions behind the scenes a lot was done to bring that number down for tax purposes, it's just pity that more was not poured back into the SAABs themselves, considering they were key to the profits. So the actual profits made by the RPT network was much higher than what was announced to the ASX.

This is why I was always critical of VA, they never really showed any trend towards long term profitability, any profit that occurred was generally on paper only, and some form of accountants creation. VA just limped along with it's management constantly trying to befuddle the investors that something new was happening, so chuck some money at us so we can change things and in a few years it will all be gravy, but never was. Then towards the end it was obvious, they were converting assets into cash, raiding the piggy bank you could say, it was quite obvious that the operation was being propped up.

Rex in my opinion is still very much fixable, however massive change needs to happen right now, starting with much more engagement with it's front line staff, they are going to have to spend their way out of this hole. They also may need to make an example, maybe some significant change at the top level, like what is happening at QF. Unfortunately I'm not sure the spots on this leopard are changeable.

[No Idea Either]

Hey 43

Let’s not forget that the core 73 op at VA always made money. It was that part of the business that kept their head just above water. The mismanagement and pissing comps around that was what dragged the company down.

[43Inches]

Hey 43

Let’s not forget that the core 73 op at VA always made money. It was that part of the business that kept their head just above water. The mismanagement and pissing comps around that was what dragged the company down.

Correct to a point, but not enough to keep the operation viable in the long run, that is, it was just enough to make marginal profits while the company was expanding. The big problem, very much similar to J* is when expansion stops everything is not quite *enough* to fund the future capital needs of what is a very capital heavy industry. On the other hand Rex was making significant profits on existing stable, ongoing routes that would only get better as populations increase in those areas. They only have themselves to blame if those routes become unprofitable, and I think the end result is more to do with Egos than market forces. The SAAB is a very different animal to a 737. It was built to last a very long time, in fact SAAB built its products so well they probably did them selves out of business. The 737 has a very finite lifespan before it really starts to cost a lot to keep airborne. 10-20 years and you need to renew it, otherwise the variable costs will sink you. With jets you have to keep the fleet young or just the fuel costs will destroy your budget in a competitive environment. Each new model of 737 is significantly more efficient than the last so if you competitor has the latest 737/A320 they will have a huge efficiency bonus let alone warranties and the rest, so even if Bonza is paying more in lease costs they are probably able to save a lot more in fuel and variable maintenance. Turboprops the technology has barely moved forward in economy and reliability so a new ATR is not that much cheaper to operate than an old one.

[Icarus2001]

and NJE ran at a loss (-$3.9 millionbefore tax) for FY23

Well if true that is amazing because they were always a profit centre for Cobham.
​​​​​​​Where is this info?

[MickG0105]

Well if true that is amazing because they were always a profit centre for Cobham.
Where is this info?
Rex's FY23 Annual Report; Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements, Note 21 Investment in Joint Venture Business and Associates, Share of NJE Results (p.71).

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1461x499/screenshot_20231021_212804_adobe_acrobat_53a6ddb5b180010b54e cb09c95300edf423e1621.jpg

[Icarus2001]

Well as I said Mick, I am amazed as I know they were very profitable. Locked in FIFO routes and East coast freight.

I see the REX share price is stubbornly staying at twelve month lows. Although in fairness everything is down, its October after all.

[MickG0105]

Well as I said Mick, I am amazed as I know they were very profitable. Locked in FIFO routes and East coast freight.

I see the REX share price is stubbornly staying at twelve month lows. Although in fairness everything is down, its October after all.
Yes, I was also surprised by that result. It was even more confounding when you consider that Rex has increased the book value of NJE twice since acquiring it, all the while knowing exactly how it was performing.

Rex and an LKH-led Joint Venture jointly paid Cobham $48.18 million for NJE in September last year. Just three months later they re-valued NJE at $77.64 million, and six months after that it had purportedly nearly doubled again in value to $142.67 million. And it lost money. Something very odd going on there.

It would be interesting to get a look at the P&L for NJE and see exactly where the problem is.

Regards share price, once they fell through the $1 floor it only took a couple of days before they were testing 90 cents. They then had a week at 90 and subsequently fell through that. For now Rex is finding support at 85 cents.

By any objective assessment, they have managed to work themselves into quite a challenging position.

[Ladloy]

I'm hearing that saab cadets, 1-2 years checked to line are leaving for greenee pastures. They are paying huge amount of money to leave but long term they are better off for it. These are their future captains walking away. They are in big trouble.

[PoppaJo]

People are going from a C208 up north to the RHS of a A320.

The days of using Rex as a 5-10 year stopover point after a GA stint is gone. Perhaps 1-2 years tops. Some rusted on Rex Management pilots might be the only people left to crew the LHS in the long run. If they offered new hires some form of 737 transition program, people might hang around.

[KRUSTY 34]

Interesting your thoughts on LINK, 42".

Probably the only viable alternative/successor to the grass roots that have been abandoned by the incumbent.

It's crystal ball stuff as to whether anything moves in that area. For the time being at least.

[neville_nobody]

Well I guess it’s time for REX to wheel out the old press release titled “Airlines are stealing all my pilots” again. Sharpy comes out bashing QF again.

[PoppaJo]

Well I guess it’s time for REX to wheel out the old press release titled “Airlines are stealing all my pilots” again. Sharpy comes out bashing QF again.
Will then likely cite the business is in terminal decline and we have axed all these regional routes, can we get a government bail out?

They seem to be positioning the regional arm up for some form of government help. Pull the old, give us cash or we are cutting off these towns. Seen that before across many industries.

[43Inches]

They seem to be positioning the regional arm up for some form of government help. Pull the old, give us cash or we are cutting off these towns. Seen that before across many industries.

Very unlikely, as QLink has moved in on a lot of the routes dumped, albeit with less frequency, but the government won't care as long as there is a service a few times a week. You will not be able to get a subsidy if somebody else is already doing the work. As I said earlier the only way out of this hole is to spend big, on both pilots and engineers, poach them back, or dwindle into oblivion.

The days of using Rex as a 5-10 year stopover point after a GA stint is gone. Perhaps 1-2 years tops. Some rusted on Rex Management pilots might be the only people left to crew the LHS in the long run. If they offered new hires some form of 737 transition program, people might hang around.

737 transition program will mean nothing if you can get your 2 years experience on the SAAB and jump ship to QF or VA and be set for higher salaries immediately.

Australia and the USA are just catching up with the rest of the world where airlines will have to pay for pilots from scratch, train them and then provide incentives that they don't leave.

[skurgler]

Shows how clever (ethical) they are,

They promised communities that helped them during the pandemic to be repaid ‘in spades’

Well, after being supported by the Kangaroo Island Council, they dumped the route, now Kangaroo Island has been voted by Lonely Planet the second best destination in the WORLD,

Some how it must be Qantas ( insert excuse here) fault.


Who is going to step up to service this gem ( hint not Rex, egg on face, plus no crew)

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Kangaroo Island has been voted by Lonely Planet the second best destination in the WORLD
Only beaten by a bike track in the Balkans. Might be niche clientele.

[MickG0105]

Only beaten by a bike track in the Balkans. Might be niche clientele.
Apparently they gave the nod to the bike track because it was easier to get to.

[markis10]

Rex have announced BNE CNS using NJS Dash operations, can’t see too many punters rushing to book a three hour prop jet option

[Mr Mossberg]

Rex have announced BNE CNS using NJS Dash operations, can’t see too many punters rushing to book a three hour prop jet option

If it's a dollar cheaper than anyone else they will.

[MickG0105]

Rex have announced BNE CNS using NJS Dash operations, can’t see too many punters rushing to book a three hour prop jet option
There's something like a dozen jet services a day between Brisbane and Cairns so difficult to see how that's going to be competitive. Interesting that they see that option as the best use of what I'm assuming is "spare" Dash availability.

[Icarus2001]

:ugh: BNE - CNS in a Dash 8? Jet like speed.

[Going Nowhere]

The flights up and back are on seperate days so it looks like a way to make some cash on what would otherwise be a positioning flight for a charter ex CNS.

[MickG0105]

The flights up and back are on seperate days so it looks like a way to make some cash on what would otherwise be a positioning flight for a charter ex CNS.
It will be interesting to see if any one is going to shell out $149 one way for that mid-week with essentially zero flexibility.

[PoppaJo]

You would be surprised what people will book to save a buck.

It’s a route notorious for exorbitant last minute fares. Having a quick look the other two are 30-40% more expensive for comparable times.

[markis10]

You would be surprised what people will book to save a buck.

It’s a route notorious for exorbitant last minute fares. Having a quick look the other two are 30-40% more expensive for comparable times.

If pax want to save $$ they will be grabbing the 6AM Va option for $119, or driving up/down the M1 to grab a Bonza service, ex OOL it’s $59 for a 10AM flight in December or $89 ex MCY on Launch day for an 8AM dep. For an airline keen to grab FIFO business I find it strange they are dead heading an aircraft on one of the two key days for FIFO turnarounds. FWIW Bonza is $119 for a departure tomorrow ex MCY.

[MickG0105]

You've got to hand it to the Rex marketing people - not many would have the chutzpah to brand selling tickets on a once a week repositioning flight as a, "NEW ROUTE".

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1931x514/screenshot_20231101_123050_chrome_e7229a28209eedbfe362a11a3b b720f6547df1a7.jpg

[Lead Balloon]

Rex's submission, to the recent Senate Committee pantomime, called Qantas "the Lying Kangaroo". There must be a pithy equivalent for Rex.

[MickG0105]

The Sanctimonious Singaporean, perhaps, however that fails to recognise the contribution of the Bloviating Beetroot.

[Deano969]

Reckon that REX is just testing the waters here, either one of two things will follow
1) More NJE Dashys coming and the NJE brand will grow in Qld in the RPT sector
2) Precursor to next new 737 route when jet number 10 arrives

[Ladloy]

Reckon that REX is just testing the waters here, either one of two things will follow
1) More NJE Dashys coming and the NJE brand will grow in Qld in the RPT sector
2) Precursor to next new 737 route when jet number 10 arrives
where's the money coming from?

[MickG0105]

I suspect that this BNE - CNS thing is more focussed on trying to generate revenue than anything else. Rex domestic closed October out having carried something in the vicinity of 156,400 pax on some 1,240 flights. I very strongly suspect that they did that at a loss. That suspicion is based on the fact that they had a somewhat better September (152,450 pax on some 1,194 flights) and didn't make money on those numbers (and here, I fully acknowledge the danger in using the absence of evidence (no "we're in the money" unaudited results announcement) as a surrogate for evidence of absence).

[Icarus2001]

Is it possible their existence is threatened?

[PoppaJo]

Is it possible their existence is threatened?
PAG will shortly have a 48% stake and two board seats. I would assume that stake will increase as they will need more cash from around 2025 onwards.

The question is what do they want to to do with the Saab operation. Throw cash at it or reduce it significantly. I don’t think they planned on this Saab distraction when they signed the deal, it was all about 737s, and ridiculous financial projections from the operator.

[Ladloy]

PAG will shortly have a 48% stake and two board seats. I would assume that stake will increase as they will need more cash from around 2025 onwards.

The question is what do they want to to do with the Saab operation. Throw cash at it or reduce it significantly. I don’t think they planned on this Saab distraction when they signed the deal, it was all about 737s, and ridiculous financial projections from the operator.
The language used during some of their announcements is exactly that. They expected the Saab operation to continue to spin a profit even when they took their eye off it. The reality is they have spent the last decade spending tomorrow's capex and now they say its a drag on their financials.

10 years ago, Saab came to Rex and said they had the idea for an updated 340. Better engines, avionics and an APU. LKH essentially laughed in their faces. Now who's laughing? No support from GE, minimal support from Saab, federal government money all dried up. No pilots, no engines. But hey, it's Qantas' fault!

[MickG0105]

Is it possible their existence is threatened?Generally, you can only run at a loss for so long. That said, Virgin illustrated that that "lingering death" state can persist for quite a few years if you've got largely clueless investors happy to shovel cash into the furnace.

In Rex's case though, PAG are unlikely to be anywhere nearly as clueless as VA's investors.

PAG will shortly have a 48% stake and two board seats. I would assume that stake will increase as they will need more cash from around 2025 onwards.
​​​​​​...

PAG have already got their two seats; Pan and Khotkar. And I can't imagine that they are happy little Vegemites at this time. Rex have drawn down nearly two thirds of the $150 million funding (and are probably now getting ready to make another withdrawal from the PAGgy Bank).

And PAG will only have that 48 percent stake if they elect to convert the notes that they are holding. Given that the notes have a Face Value of $1 and a Conversion Price of $1.50, I cannot see why PAG would elect to convert their notes unless the share price was, at the very least, close to $1.50. PAG retain the option of simply redeeming the notes at their face value (ie getting their investment back).

This is why share price is absolutely critical to Rex. If PAG elect to redeem their investment it would probably tank Rex; apart from the money side of the equation, it would say to the market that, having seen the business from the inside for a few years, they have no confidence in the operation.


...
I don’t think they planned on this Saab distraction when they signed the deal, it was all about 737s, and ridiculous financial projections from the operator.
​​​​​​​This whole domestic thing was sold to PAG as the very rich icing on an ordinary but otherwise palatable cake, that being the Saab regional operations. We've all read the Project Mother hoop-la where Rex were just going to scoop up "distressed" assets and crews on the cheap and ride off into the sunset with the 30 percent of the domestic market they'd snatched from VA's cold dead hand.

It is pretty clear from the structure of the PAG deal ($1.50 conversion price) and the Management Incentive Scheme (executive bonuses) that was created at the same time, that Rex saw/sold their foray into domestic as Rivers of Gold. The MIS has a floor financial KPI of $50 million Statutory Profit Before Tax, escalating in $50 million tranches to $200 million. That's pretty clearly what Rex were expecting when they went into this three years ago.

[PoppaJo]

Project Mother.

Yes who can forget. Now what bout the $1-1.6B valuation they had on a new upcoming frequent flyer program.

Yes, Billion.

[ebt]

Project Mother.

Yes who can forget. Now what bout the $1-1.6B valuation they had on a new upcoming frequent flyer program.

Yes, Billion.

More like Project MotherF***er, am I right?

[MickG0105]

Project Mother.

Yes who can forget. Now what bout the $1-1.6B valuation they had on a new upcoming frequent flyer program.

Yes, Billion.
That's right, I had forgotten about that little gem - an eventual value of between $1 billion and $1.6 billion 3-4 years after capital city flights commenced.

Does Rex even have someone running Loyalty these days? (Loyalty as in frequent flyer, rather than the usually required fealty to LKH).

[dejapoo]

Loyalty is the poor cadets weeding the pool area at AAPA on a summer stinker.

[KRUSTY 34]

The language used during some of their announcements is exactly that. They expected the Saab operation to continue to spin a profit even when they took their eye off it. The reality is they have spent the last decade spending tomorrow's capex and now they say its a drag on their financials.

10 years ago, Saab came to Rex and said they had the idea for an updated 340. Better engines, avionics and an APU. LKH essentially laughed in their faces. Now who's laughing? No support from GE, minimal support from Saab, federal government money all dried up. No pilots, no engines. But hey, it's Qantas' fault!

You may be talking about the Stillborn SAAB 340C. This was a project from the nineties where the 34 seat airframe was upgraded to all the nice engines/avionics of the SAAB 2000. This would have resulted in a common endorsement and similar performance and operating efficiencies. Operators could trade in their old A and B models for the flexibility of a mixed fleet of 34/50 seaters that all crew could then operate. Think Dash 8 200/300 but with better gear and performance. Great stuff! Unfortunately, the SAAB 2000 was a commercial failure for a whole other reason, and SAAB decided not to go ahead with the 340C.

I had a conversation with a senior REX manager about this some 15 or so years ago. He told me that they (REX) had actually approached SAAB with a view to producing the 340C and recommencing the production of the 2000, for the vey reasons I have stated above. According to this senior manager, SAAB comprehensively ruled out that ever happening?

So if SAAB had indeed reconsidered, I'm a little perplexed as to why REX didn't at least entertain the idea?

[Slippery_Pete]

SAAB weren’t offering a new aircraft, it was a zero time program.

What SAAB proposed was you take your B model back to Sweden. They take the whole airframe apart, and then they completely rebuild that same airframe with two updated FADEC engines and new avionics. Then they give it back to you as a zero hour airframe.

PAG are in a real spot of bother here. I give it a week before John not-so Sharp wheels out his little victim act again.

[Ladloy]

SAAB weren’t offering a new aircraft, it was a zero time program.

What SAAB proposed was you take your B model back to Sweden. They take the whole airframe apart, and then they completely rebuild that same airframe with two updated FADEC engines and new avionics. Then they give it back to you as a zero hour airframe.

PAG are in a real spot of bother here. I give it a week before John not-so Sharp wheels out his little victim act again.

You may be talking about the Stillborn SAAB 340C. This was a project from the nineties where the 34 seat airframe was upgraded to all the nice engines/avionics of the SAAB 2000. This would have resulted in a common endorsement and similar performance and operating efficiencies. Operators could trade in their old A and B models for the flexibility of a mixed fleet of 34/50 seaters that all crew could then operate. Think Dash 8 200/300 but with better gear and performance. Great stuff! Unfortunately, the SAAB 2000 was a commercial failure for a whole other reason, and SAAB decided not to go ahead with the 340C.

I had a conversation with a senior REX manager about this some 15 or so years ago. He told me that they (REX) had actually approached SAAB with a view to producing the 340C and recommencing the production of the 2000, for the vey reasons I have stated above. According to this senior manager, SAAB comprehensively ruled out that ever happening?

So if SAAB had indeed reconsidered, I'm a little perplexed as to why REX didn't at least entertain the idea?
The rumour I had heard was at the time Rex had turned 10 and Saab staff were at the celebrations. 2012? The argument then was they could easily pick up airframes from the US for $1-1.5m at the time, so why plan for the future? A very different story now.

[PoppaJo]

That's right, I had forgotten about that little gem - an eventual value of between $1 billion and $1.6 billion 3-4 years after capital city flights commenced.

Does Rex even have someone running Loyalty these days? (Loyalty as in frequent flyer, rather than the usually required fealty to LKH).
Mick, do PAG have an exit clause in all of this? One without significant financial penalty to itself?

You would assume PAG didn’t plan on financing Saab issues, even if they planned this investment as being short term. Mother was about everything but the Saab, it was just meant to operate as it does in the back. Approaching the end of the term, they have a highly unprofitable Saab operation and a Jet operation which cannot make money. All going to plan….nope.

[MickG0105]

Mick, do PAG have an exit clause in all of this? One without significant financial penalty to itself?
...
PAG's walk-away is to simply elect to redeem the issued notes at Face Value instead of converting them. We've only ever seen a synopsis of the actual funding agreement between PAG and Rex, but from that it looks like PAG would need to wait until the Maturity Date (five years following the First Drawdown Date) to redeem the notes. That would be March 2026, unless either party exercised their right to extend the Maturity Date by one year. Redemption would see PAG get their money back plus the (below market) 4 percent annual interest that they have been collecting. You could argue that PAG would have also received an education on the vagaries and vicissitudes of the Australian commercial aviation sector; assign your own value to that.

[ebt]

I just got served up this ad for Rishworth hiring Saab drivers on the global market, including visa sponsorship:
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/685x788/screenshot_2023_11_07_090109_6f8abbe857ca94a7c9267e59320e42a f1e4b9c09.png

[SHVC]

I just got served up this ad for Rishworth hiring Saab drivers on the global market, including visa sponsorship:
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/685x788/screenshot_2023_11_07_090109_6f8abbe857ca94a7c9267e59320e42a f1e4b9c09.png

Rex can do all the big leg work bringing them here all for JQ, QF and VA to take them all. Loop hole in every visa.

[PoppaJo]

Rex can do all the big leg work bringing them here all for JQ, QF and VA to take them all. Loop hole in every visa.
Great….will just result in more bitching and moaning with all this ‘relentless pillaging’ going on.

[MickG0105]

Any word on what's happening with -RQC? It was their first jet with the initial lease due to expire soon. It looks like it was flown to the Philippines last month, presumably for heavy maintenance. Is it coming back?

[RollThroughApproved]

Great….will just result in more bitching and moaning with all this ‘relentless pillaging’ going on.

Rather than getting mad they need to embrace the positive marketing and throw ‘member of the Qantas Future Pilot Program’ on their posters.

[Deano969]

10th 737 on it's way
Ex 11yo GOL
Even reconfigured this one from hi density 186 to 8/168
Puts their 737 fleet a year and a bit younger than QFs

[MickG0105]

A few days to run yet but November is shaping up as quite a solid month for Rex's domestic jet ops; they will likely close out the month with some 180,000 pax moved on nearly 1,280 flights.

Their AGM is on Wednesday. If they don't announce at the AGM (or sometime there or thereabouts) that domestic is on a path to, at the very least, breaking even then I suspect that they are in some trouble. If they can't turn a quid on those November numbers, they need to give the game away.
​​​​​​

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Puts their 737 fleet a year and a bit younger than QFs
And 65 737's smaller.

[middleman]

Any word on what's happening with -RQC? It was their first jet with the initial lease due to expire soon. It looks like it was flown to the Philippines last month, presumably for heavy maintenance. Is it coming back?
Due back 2nd week December..

[MickG0105]

Due back 2nd week December..
Muchas gracias.

[markis10]

Due back 2nd week December..

RQG will be leaving to be modified for non self loading freight, 8ZL is on delivery today

[MickG0105]

RQG will be leaving to be modified for non self loading freight, 8ZL is on delivery today
Do you know if the plan is for -RQG to come back to Rex as a freighter, or off to other pastures?

[Wizofoz]

Do you know if the plan is for -RQG to come back to Rex as a freighter, or off to other pastures?
Going elsewhere.

[MickG0105]

Going elsewhere.
Thanks for that. So one in, one out.

[Wizofoz]

Thanks for that. So one in, one out.
Yes, but a few more on the near horizon.

[middleman]

RQG will be leaving to be modified for non self loading freight, 8ZL is on delivery today

Which one is leaving ? RQG or RQC ? Both still look to be operating for at least the next month ?

[snakeslugger]

RQG… Feb 24’ freighter conversion in China, then off to a new home.

[MickG0105]

This (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02754175) appears to be the draw down of a further $25 million from the PAGgybank yesterday. That is Rex's single largest draw down since they took the initial $50 million to kick proceedings off back in March 2021.

Rex Domestic had easily their best month of the financial year in November, carrying just shy of 180,000 pax on some 1,280 flights. Meanwhile their share price is now testing 75 cents (half of the conversion price of the PAG convertible notes).

Things appear to be somewhat off here.

[MickG0105]

What's the story with the new jet, -8ZL? It seems to have an odd "non-standard" seating configuration.

[transition_alt]

What's the story with the new jet, -8ZL? It seems to have an odd "non-standard" seating configuration.

Probably just a lack of care for consistency and refurbishments in their fleets

[Colonel_Klink]

This (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02754175) appears to be the draw down of a further $25 million from the PAGgybank yesterday. That is Rex's single largest draw down since they took the initial $50 million to kick proceedings off back in March 2021.

Rex Domestic had easily their best month of the financial year in November, carrying just shy of 180,000 pax on some 1,280 flights. Meanwhile their share price is now testing 75 cents (half of the conversion price of the PAG convertible notes).

Things appear to be somewhat off here.

Out of interest Mick, what did you mean that things were somewhat off here?

Am I correct in saying that the convertible notes can only be used for the 737 operation?

[Colonel_Klink]

What's the story with the new jet, -8ZL? It seems to have an odd "non-standard" seating configuration.

Australian Executive Traveller had this to say on Rex’s ‘Euro Business’

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/rex-737-economy

[ebt]

What's the story with the new jet, -8ZL? It seems to have an odd "non-standard" seating configuration.

It's ex GOL, while most of the others are in Virgin or SilkAir layouts. I doubt that they will be able to get any job-lot deals on 737NGs in the near term, so it seems they are going to have to get used to these non-standard layouts.

[MickG0105]

Out of interest Mick, what did you mean that things were somewhat off here?

Am I correct in saying that the convertible notes can only be used for the 737 operation?
G'day Colonel, it just struck me as somewhat odd that hot on the heels of Rex having easily their best month of both the current financial, and calendar year in November, that:

a. their share price remained stubbornly in the dunny (sitting barely above 50 percent of $1.50 conversion price for the convertible notes), and

b. they needed to draw down a further $25 million, easily their single largest draw down of cash since the initial $50 million to get things rolling back in March 2021.

If they didn't make money on the November numbers, they are likely in a spot of Barney Rubble.

And yes, the PAGgybank is meant to be "used to establish, launch, operate and expand Rex's Australian domestic Regular Pubic Transport jet operation ... using leased Boeing 737-800NG jets".

Australian Executive Traveller had this to say on Rex’s ‘Euro Business’... Euro Business, you say? So like ordinary business but with slicker suits.

[Deano969]

REX says that the Euro Business seats will be replaced in early 2024, what would you have them do? Just sit the new bird on the ground till then ?

[Colonel_Klink]

Thanks for the reply Mick.

I, as I am sure many others here, appreciate your insights when it comes to deciphering some of this finance stuff.

[Icarus2001]

If they didn't make money on the November numbers, they are likely in a spot of Barney Rubble.


Mick it is like the old retail joke, "we are losing money on every flight but we will make it up on volume".

​​​​​​​I predict a buyout or other massive changes at Rex. Pretty obvious they cannot continue this way.

[markis10]

Mick it is like the old retail joke, "we are losing money on every flight but we will make it up on volume".

I predict a buyout or other massive changes at Rex. Pretty obvious they cannot continue this way.

Treading water methinks with regional ops soon to be binned, no capital for new aircraft, asx delisting etc etc

[MickG0105]

Mick it is like the old retail joke, "we are losing money on every flight but we will make it up on volume". I predict a buyout or other massive changes at Rex. Pretty obvious they cannot continue this way.Yes, the old 'Never Mind the Quality, Feel the Width'.

February-March next year will be, if not crunch time, certainly an inflection point - half-year results will be out (and Rex will be out of tricks to prop up their numbers), we'll have an insight into how NJE is performing, the market should have a feel for domestic's performance in January/February, and the Initial Term for the PAG deal will be up.

Treading water methinks with regional ops soon to be binned, no capital for new aircraft, asx delisting etc etc
It will be very interesting to see whether they have been able to salvage anything from regional, or whether we'll get a repeat of the February 2023, "Regional operations have been a drag on the Group's performance." announcement.

Probably worth noting that Rex with no Regional is just Ex.

[MickG0105]

Thanks for the reply Mick.

I, as I am sure many others here, appreciate your insights when it comes to deciphering some of this finance stuff.
Thank you, Colonel. It's not as though there's not a good deal of reciprocity in terms of others providing some very good insights into the operational side of things.

[No Idea Either]

Probably worth noting that Rex with no Regional is just Ex.

That is gold Mick………………

[MickG0105]

That is gold Mick………………
Sometimes they really do just fall into your lap.

[Deano969]

Actually, regarding the name REX
Here is my prediction for 2024 and beyond
REX will continue adding 737s 3-5 per year
Bolstering the triangle and adding Perth, Cairns, Sunny Coast and Launceston
E190s will enter the fleet with support from NJE to support their 737s
In time REX will run under 3 names
Their mainline will run under National Jet Express (a much better fit)
Regional Express for their country work
A separate name then will be introduced for their charter work

As their fleet of SAABs begin to retire, they will be replaced with Q400s
At this point a few things will factor in
A growing number of 2nd hand 737s, Q400s and E190s will hit the market as the post Covid boom abates
A surplus of crew will become available see above
REX will become profitable and be in a position to re enter some abandoned regional markets and grow some existing ones
REX will improve their FFPs offering
REX will become more competitive and grow their regional on the back of mainline

Regarding their profitability, given their loads and better pricing with their jets, I believe they are doing better than they are letting on at the moment
The $25m drawdown won't be for the past, I believe it is for further growth
MEL-SYD 7 daily needs to go to at least 12 daily
MEL-BNE 3 daily needs to go to at least 5 daily
MEL-ADL 2 daily needs to go to at least 3 daily
SYD-BNE 5 daily needs to go to at least 10 daily
OOL-SYD-MEL could easily go 3 daily each
So need a few more birds to get to these levels so there's where the $25mil is heading....

[gamma69]

What year for the 787/777s and Qatar Merger?

Actually, regarding the name REX
Here is my prediction for 2024 and beyond
REX will continue adding 737s 3-5 per year
Bolstering the triangle and adding Perth, Cairns, Sunny Coast and Launceston
E190s will enter the fleet with support from NJE to support their 737s
In time REX will run under 3 names
Their mainline will run under National Jet Express (a much better fit)
Regional Express for their country work
A separate name then will be introduced for their charter work

As their fleet of SAABs begin to retire, they will be replaced with Q400s
At this point a few things will factor in
A growing number of 2nd hand 737s, Q400s and E190s will hit the market as the post Covid boom abates
A surplus of crew will become available see above
REX will become profitable and be in a position to re enter some abandoned regional markets and grow some existing ones
REX will improve their FFPs offering
REX will become more competitive and grow their regional on the back of mainline

Regarding their profitability, given their loads and better pricing with their jets, I believe they are doing better than they are letting on at the moment
The $25m drawdown won't be for the past, I believe it is for further growth
MEL-SYD 7 daily needs to go to at least 12 daily
MEL-BNE 3 daily needs to go to at least 5 daily
MEL-ADL 2 daily needs to go to at least 3 daily
SYD-BNE 5 daily needs to go to at least 10 daily
OOL-SYD-MEL could easily go 3 daily each
So need a few more birds to get to these levels so there's where the $25mil is heading....

[markis10]

[/quote]
Regarding their profitability, given their loads and better pricing with their jets, I believe they are doing better than they are letting on at the moment
The $25m drawdown won't be for the past, I believe it is for further growth
..[/QUOTE]

Convertible notes are for opex not capex, the rest of the predictions are not worth responding to given their based on world most of us are not living in!

[Icarus2001]

A growing number of 2nd hand 737s, Q400s and E190s will hit the market as the post Covid boom abates

​​​​​​​That does not seem to be indicated by current trends.

[Deano969]

That does not seem to be indicated by current trends.
The post Covid boom has yet to abate....
​​​​​​​

[Deano969]

Regarding their profitability, given their loads and better pricing with their jets, I believe they are doing better than they are letting on at the moment
The $25m drawdown won't be for the past, I believe it is for further growth
..[/QUOTE]

Convertible notes are for opex not capex, the rest of the predictions are not worth responding to given their based on world most of us are not living in![/QUOTE]
$25mil won't even get 1 737 so duh...
Operating expenses is a fairly large bucket that can be distributed to many and various departments

So what in particular are you in disagreement with?
More 737s, this is beyond doubt
More triangle flights, they are continually adding more flights
Expansion to more cities, they have stated this from the beginning
More Q400s, NJE are looking as we type
NJE to REX routes, see BNE-CNS
REX mainline to become NJE, sure speculation, but makes a lot sense
E190s to bolster mainline, rumour but this would also make sense on thinner routes
Q400 replacing SAABs, they will need replacing at some point and without a 30-36 seated being manufactured, there would seem to be no other option, especially with NJE already having a fleet

Here's one out of left field
Could the $25mil be used in part to buy out the remaining 50% of NJE along with a share swap, thus hitting the fast forward of many of the above points?

[markis10]

The post Covid boom has yet to abate....


Capacity is at 90% pre Covid levels and likely to stay that way for some time owing to pilot shortages, P&W GTF issues and the demand for PCF stock (which is waning).
Meanwhile lease rates for the 737 are climbing with a 18 year old 737-800 going from a low of Q4 2021 of USD80k per month to USD150k per month currently, which coincidently is less than a Dash 8 Q400, your solution to the SF340s!
Rex has been profitable in the past with low cost ops using owned aircraft, now those owned aircraft are redundant and they are faced with massive increasing costs just to maintain their network, let alone grow it.

Regarding their profitability, given their loads and better pricing with their jets, I believe they are doing better than they are letting on at the moment
The $25m drawdown won't be for the past, I believe it is for further growth
..
Here's one out of left field
Could the $25mil be used in part to buy out the remaining 50% of NJE along with a share swap, thus hitting the fast forward of many of the above points?

LOL, Rex booked a 45M increase in value as their share from the JV in the last results, if 25M allowed them to buy the remaining 50% questions would be asked. Given the PAG funding is exclusively for the domestic jet operation it’s a moot point, won’t happen.

[MickG0105]

...
Meanwhile lease rates for the 737 are climbing with a 18 year old 737-800 going from a low of Q4 2021 of USD80k per month to USD150k per month currently,
...
I've seen financing news quoting $US200-280,000 (AUD 294-412,000) a month range for -800 lease rates depending on the age. I'd be surprised if Rex got any of the last three relatively low-time jets for under $US240,000 a month, and likely much higher than that. Suffice to say that the notion that a very small operator, with a flaky P&L, paying in Pacific Pesos would be getting preferential rates is a fantasy.

We'll get a bit of a line of sight on the numbers when the half-year results get posted in a couple of months, so stand by to standby.

[C441]

A huge sample of one I know, but yesterday I took my first flight on Rex (MEL - BNE) as there were no seats for staff on Qantas and Virgin wanted $889 vs Rex's $329; and that was booking at 90 mins before ETD. We departed a bit over an hour late, but then everyone was to Brisbane.

The flight was about 2/3 full in economy (including 5 Qantas staff) but full in Business. I was surprised it wasn't chocker down the back given the fare differential.

The service onboard was as good as contemporary domestic economy ever is on any airline and we were thankful for the move from row 14 to the an exit row.:ok:

[markis10]

Rex quietly announced tonight that regional temporary cancellations announced in September last year will no longer cease in March, now running through to October due to Covid!

https://www.rex.com.au/MediaAndPressClippings/MediaReleaseList.aspx?y=2024

[MickG0105]

Rex quietly announced tonight that regional temporary cancellations announced in September last year will no longer cease in March, now running through to October due to Covid!

https://www.rex.com.au/MediaAndPressClippings/MediaReleaseList.aspx?y=2024

They also seem to be taking the wire brush to their domestic schedule. Today they only operated 38 flights, 8 fewer than last Friday; only 6 SYD-MEL return, no MEL-OOL service, pax numbers were woeful. I suspect that they might be in a spot of Barney Rubble.

[ACMS]

Quite apart from your pathetic attempts to **** stir you do realize that traditionally we are now in probably one of the quieter times of the year following the return of school etc etc……

Last week was still inside the holiday period and obviously would be busier.

The sky isn’t falling in just yet mate but keep wishing for Rex to fail.

Now back to QF or VA for you. You most certainly have your own set of issues to deal with.

[Deano969]

RQG will be leaving to be modified for non self loading freight, 8ZL is on delivery today
Yea, so that theory did not pan out as RQG is back doing work

[fire wall]

Dont be ridiculous ACMS, Mick is waay too busy to look at seasonal variations. He reads ASX announcements and financial reports don't you know and gifts his wealth of knowledge to us plebs.


QUOTE=ACMS;11589182]Quite apart from your pathetic attempts to **** stir you do realize that traditionally we are now in probably one of the quieter times of the year following the return of school etc etc……

Last week was still inside the holiday period and obviously would be busier.

The sky isn’t falling in just yet mate but keep wishing for Rex to fail.

Now back to QF or VA for you. You most certainly have your own set of issues to deal with.[/QUOTE]

[MickG0105]

Oh, I've also been known to peruse the BITRE pax traffic statistics too, certainly enough to know that while the average change in domestic pax carried daily between January and February is around -3.3 percent, that trend is not seen on the SYD-MEL-BNE triangle.

To the surprise of no one who understands the corporate/leisure split on the triangle, daily pax carried actually lifts on those sectors by around 8-9 percent between January and February.

And that, of course, makes Rex's decision to prune flights off the triangle a little more curious.

As always, it might just be a passing thing. Just as the somewhat drastic decline in Rex's domestic pax numbers over the past couple of weeks may just be a passing thing also.

And, for the avoidance of any and all doubt, I do not and have not worked for either QF or VA, but thanks for thinking of me.

[markis10]

Yea, so that theory did not pan out as RQG is back doing work

It’s lease hasn’t ended yet given she spent some time at Wagga waiting on engines at the start and entered service March 31 2021 ;)

[Deano969]

It’s lease hasn’t ended yet given she spent some time at Wagga waiting on engines at the start and entered service March 31 2021 ;)
So they can take 737s at Wagga now, thought they knocked back Bonza at Wagga

[autopilot11]

No one wants to fly for a toxic/bad conditions company (Rex) and here are the results. Supply shortages are pilots leaving a sinking ship..

[markis10]

So they can take 737s at Wagga now, thought they knocked back Bonza at Wagga

Been able to take 737s since 1992 when the government gave the council money for the runway. There’s even a picture of one on the airports wiki page, and tiger visited on a few occasions in years gone by, infrastructure to handle RPT flights, different story.

[Wizofoz]

Yea, so that theory did not pan out as RQG is back doing work

Delayed but still happening- but 2 more ex-Singair frames coming.

[SHVC]

Well something is up, everytime I walk in now Rex has canceled more than normal average 73 flights whilst where I’m at carrying 170+ everywhere so can’t really blame school going back.

Saying that, VA seem to be canning a lot also.

[43Inches]

No one wants to fly for a toxic/bad conditions company (Rex) and here are the results. Supply shortages are pilots leaving a sinking ship..

The ship is only sinking because of a lack of staff, mainly Pilots and Engineers. All the result of poor management choices. I've heard there is still no engagement with pilots to try to stem the loss of crew, just work whats left harder so they leave faster. I was told several country based pilots quit and took up jobs outside of flying because of the workload and time away, and others have taken or are taking early retirement. So it's not just pilots leaving for 'jet jobs'.

The ship is very seaworthy, management have pulled the bungs out and are doing nothing to fix it. From what I hear is being rostered for pilots regularly they are actively bucketing water into the ship as well as setting fire to it. The shareholders should be asking hard questions of the management team as to what they plan to do, as 'let it happen', or even 'make it worse' is the present mode of operating.

So they can take 737s at Wagga now, thought they knocked back Bonza at Wagga

Pretty sure Rex paints them at Wagga, they would be ferried in and out though at low weight.

[Deano969]

I reckon, as I stated earlier, that they are transitioning their fleet from SAABs to Q400s under NJE, they just doubled their BNE-CNS frequency :rolleyes: and aren't they using some NJE metal in WA
As I also stated earlier, mid to long term, staff and new jets won't be as much of an issue because, I believe, the post Covid ramp up world wide is overly ambitious

Airlines and annalists likely have not taken into account what was always going to happen after Covid
Countries collectively injecting multiple trillions into economies during Covid was always going to be inflationary in the recovery stage
Governments were always going to have to recoup the stimulus resulting in higher taxes
The aging population problem was certainly not helped by Covid with millions of people world wide taking early retirement creating the current labour shortage driving up wages for the rest and further adding to inflation
All resulting in a cost of living problem and much higher interest rates and rents taking disposable income levels to new lows
This is all having impacts on commercial aviation as you can see with falling load factors with the likes of REX and more cancelations with QF/JQ and VA
Airlines have over ordered new frames and they will be offloading older frames earlier, to REX's benefit

[Ladloy]

I reckon, as I stated earlier, that they are transitioning their fleet from SAABs to Q400s under NJE, they just doubled their BNE-CNS frequency :rolleyes: and aren't they using some NJE metal in WA
As I also stated earlier, mid to long term, staff and new jets won't be as much of an issue because, I believe, the post Covid ramp up world wide is overly ambitious

Airlines and annalists likely have not taken into account what was always going to happen after Covid
Countries collectively injecting multiple trillions into economies during Covid was always going to be inflationary in the recovery stage
Governments were always going to have to recoup the stimulus resulting in higher taxes
The aging population problem was certainly not helped by Covid with millions of people world wide taking early retirement creating the current labour shortage driving up wages for the rest and further adding to inflation
All resulting in a cost of living problem and much higher interest rates and rents taking disposable income levels to new lows
This is all having impacts on commercial aviation as you can see with falling load factors with the likes of REX and more cancelations with QF/JQ and VA
Airlines have over ordered new frames and they will be offloading older frames earlier, to REX's benefit
No one is offloading Q400 frames. Even then, whos money are they going to use to buy them?
I honestly think their quarterly will be very interesting.

[43Inches]

I reckon, as I stated earlier, that they are transitioning their fleet from SAABs to Q400s under NJE, they just doubled their BNE-CNS frequency :rolleyes: and aren't they using some NJE metal in WA
As I also stated earlier, mid to long term, staff and new jets won't be as much of an issue because, I believe, the post Covid ramp up world wide is overly ambitious

Airlines and annalists likely have not taken into account what was always going to happen after Covid
Countries collectively injecting multiple trillions into economies during Covid was always going to be inflationary in the recovery stage
Governments were always going to have to recoup the stimulus resulting in higher taxes
The aging population problem was certainly not helped by Covid with millions of people world wide taking early retirement creating the current labour shortage driving up wages for the rest and further adding to inflation
All resulting in a cost of living problem and much higher interest rates and rents taking disposable income levels to new lows
This is all having impacts on commercial aviation as you can see with falling load factors with the likes of REX and more cancelations with QF/JQ and VA
Airlines have over ordered new frames and they will be offloading older frames earlier, to REX's benefit

The world is just returning to pre-Covid levels of travel. The post Covid travel bubble was just the unexpected kick off, that everyone thought would be much slower. Interest rates are at normal levels, not high or low, sub 3% is very low, 1980s style 12% is high. The only thing that's different today for Australia is house prices, but considering the amount of Aussies that have paid off, or have paid down their mortgage considerably it does not affect a huge segment of the population. That is why there is no house price crash or adjustment, people can still afford houses, even paying cash outright. Add to the equation that higher interest rates is better for retirees with cash accounts.

If you are cash poor with high debt, life sucks right now. If you have cash and assets of value, life is good.

As for lots of used aircraft becoming available. That's completely against the current trend. Deliveries on new aircraft are slow, Airbus is way behind, Boeing is still struggling with Max issues. The news at present is that more pressure is on airlines to retain older fleet pushing up the price of used 'frames'. Q400s are high usage aircraft, with lots of maintenance issues, if anyone thinks they can buy old ones and they will be like the SAAB 340 in terms of reliability, they are digging a big muddy hole to wallow in.

[ebt]

No one is offloading Q400 frames. Even then, whos money are they going to use to buy them?
I honestly think their quarterly will be very interesting.

Between five lessors there are 48 Q400s stored at the moment, out of 151 of the fleet stored, including ex Horizon birds and other fleet retirements, so there is no shortage of frames. NJE lease all of their newer equipment anyway, so they can just rely on the operating cashflow to do it.

[Icarus2001]

This is all having impacts on commercial aviation as you can see with falling load factors with the likes of REX and more cancelations with QF/JQ and VA The cancellations are not due to low load factors but because of a lack of crew. REX on the other hand is looking more like Wiley Coyote as he runs off the cliff, the fall is delayed a few seconds until he realises there is no ground beneath him.

[Ladloy]

Between five lessors there are 48 Q400s stored at the moment, out of 151 of the fleet stored, including ex Horizon birds and other fleet retirements, so there is no shortage of frames. NJE lease all of their newer equipment anyway, so they can just rely on the operating cashflow to do it.
My guess is the only current cashflow is from PAG, which is running out fast. They're having to send Saab crew to the US for type rating training because they pissed off Ansett Sim centre. The crew that are left, both on the 73 and the Saab are still leaving in droves (moreso from the Saab). No one is applying other than for the cadetship and that is putting a huge strain on available lhs upgrades. It's hard to take a RHS on a saab at a 60k salary. You can make the same at Bunnings or Woolies.

How would they even expand with Q400s in the current financial climate? It would mean they would be limited to routes also served by Qantaslink which is completely against their own business plan.

[eric600]

New here, can any current employee enlighten me on what's the roster like for SAAB captains?

Thanks

[SOSIJ]

Sydney based skipper
65-75 flying hrs a roster
2-3 Perth trips a roster flying over there seems to be standard now
8 RDOs a roster
Message me if you want to know anything else!

[BEVLY9]

New here, can any current employee enlighten me on what's the roster like for SAAB captains?

Thanks

Pick a base you don’t want to live in because you will never be there anyway.

28 day roster, 8-10 days off, most east coast captains getting rostered anywhere up to 1-3 weeks out of base in Perth, Brisbane, Cairns, Townsville

[eric600]

How many legs/sectors do you guys fly in a day?
Thanks for the response!

[SOSIJ]

Anywhere from 2 to 6 sectors

[Al E. Vator]

Rex is a great product. Better aircraft and friendlier cabin staff than everyone else they compete with.

Suggestion to slow the departure of aircrew would be to immediately bin the Lowly Flt Ops gent (ex-other airlines) who seems to be the catalyst for so much disharmony in that dept & make the pilots feel a vital, respected part of the team.

Big egos like that do way more harm than good. The industry needs to purge this 1950's, self-serving nonsense and get with the times.

[gamma69]

New here, can any current employee enlighten me on what's the roster like for SAAB captains?

Thanks

Eric, I left the place just under a decade ago, comments from follow pilots that are still there, seems nothing has changed.
So don’t hope for it to change.

[Icarus2001]

Better aircraft and friendlier cabin staff than everyone else they compete with.

How are their B737 better?

​​​​​​​Cabin crew, well that varies on the day. Good and poor with both the majors. Mostly good though.

[mikewil]

Rex is a great product. Better aircraft and friendlier cabin staff than everyone else they compete with.

Suggestion to slow the departure of aircrew would be to immediately bin the Lowly Flt Ops gent (ex-other airlines) who seems to be the catalyst for so much disharmony in that dept & make the pilots feel a vital, respected part of the team.

Big egos like that do way more harm than good. The industry needs to purge this 1950's, self-serving nonsense and get with the times.

Not sure how you define better aircraft if you are referring to their regional operation.

Sure the Saabs are reliable and economical, but better in what way? Comfort on the ground on a hot day? Not sure a Saab could compare to the APU equipped aircraft that the competitors are using....

[dejapoo]

Ice cold, better than my APU in my opinion thanks to their air con hose setup…

eric culturally they despise direct entry captains. I started with 8. We all quit within 3 months, most didn’t make the aeroplane.

[MickG0105]

…
We all quit within 3 months, most didn’t make the aeroplane.
Quit? Or were you relentlessly pillaged by a rival?

[markis10]

Meanwhile over at Pel Air there is an issue with three failure to pressurise ascents over a short period, I suppose you get what you pay for ;)

[eric600]

Thanks for all the info, this helps a lot but it doesn't surprise me. Most concerns,issues and dilemma pilots face between airlines are same-same around the world. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Despise? Thats a strong word mr. dejapoo. Are you saying rex SAAB fleet culture would make things difficult particularly for direct entry left seat?

[Ladloy]

Thanks for all the info, this helps a lot but it doesn't surprise me. Most concerns,issues and dilemma pilots face between airlines are same-same around the world. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Despise? Thats a strong word mr. dejapoo. Are you saying rex SAAB fleet culture would make things difficult particularly for direct entry left seat?
You wont have an issue with direct entry LHS if you take a regimented approach to the way they fly the saab. The people are great, the management is by far the worst I've dealt with. Your decision making is always under the microscope. It's never the fault of fatigue, 35 year old aircraft with crappy refurbished parts or management team.

[Ladloy]

Thanks for all the info, this helps a lot but it doesn't surprise me. Most concerns,issues and dilemma pilots face between airlines are same-same around the world. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Despise? Thats a strong word mr. dejapoo. Are you saying rex SAAB fleet culture would make things difficult particularly for direct entry left seat?
You wont have an issue with direct entry LHS if you take a regimented approach to the way they fly the saab. The people are great, the management is by far the worst I've dealt with. Your decision making is always under the microscope. It's never the fault of fatigue, 35 year old aircraft with crappy refurbished parts or management team.

[MickG0105]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/906x1200/screenshot_20240209_080144_adobe_acrobat_253695a9c9d6e15686d a3639ff59c5a59cac1f2c.jpg

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/906x1200/screenshot_20240209_080144_adobe_acrobat_253695a9c9d6e15686d a3639ff59c5a59cac1f2c.jpg

Wow. That’s the sort of petulant BS you expect from the CCP.

[markis10]

I have a feeling there is not much difference between being the first city to be granted resumption of services and the last city, as their issues are unlikely to improve in the short term.

[IAW]

Cites "Supply and Demand" to support expanding 737 ops...
and in the same PARAGRAPH moans about the lack of regional pilots willing to fly*
Now THAT is "Supply and Demand"














*(for ****ty terms and conditions)

[Ladloy]

Cites "Supply and Demand" to support expanding 737 ops...
and in the same PARAGRAPH moans about the lack of regional pilots willing to fly*
Now THAT is "Supply and Demand"














*(for ****ty terms and conditions)
Double the pay and they'll have every saab crewed.

[markis10]

Three additional 737s to join the fleet as Rex announce a small loss, on the last day of VH-RQG being in the fleet.

[KRUSTY 34]

The last line of the Media Release got me.

Cop that Armidale!

[MickG0105]

Three additional 737s to join the fleet as Rex announce a small loss, on the last day of VH-RQG being in the fleet.
That "small loss" is largely propped up by Rex booking a $20.7 million gain on a revaluation of the PAG convertible notes and warrants, a handful of other book value losses/gains, and the waiver of a settlement payment by Cobham that netted out to a $4.3 million "benefit" - total booked benefit being $28.8 million.

Rex actually incurred an operating loss of around $27 million for the six months to 31 December 2023; somewhat astoundingly NJE continues to lose money.

[Icarus2001]

Losing money, losing crew and cutting routes. It is heading inexorably in one direction.

[nomess]

Mick, when does the cash run out? Assuming they continue to burn 50-60m per year.

The fairytale will only go as far as the money pot will let it.